| 岩村滑坡预测预报分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊焱,侯天顺,王红波. 岩村滑坡预测预报分析[J]. 建筑科学, 2007, 23(11): 26-28,34 |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊焱 侯天顺 王红波 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南城市学院土木工程学院,湖南,益阳,413000;中国地质大学工程学院,武汉,430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 在介绍了岩村滑坡地质概况的基础上，采用剩余推力法计算滑坡在三种工况下（175m正常水位；175m水位＋雨季；蓄水洪水位）的稳定性系数，继而引入蒙特卡洛概率模型对岩村滑坡进行了破坏概率系统分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 预测预报 残余强度 稳定性 蒙特卡洛概率模型 破坏概率 滑坡 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-8528（2007）11-0026-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-12-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-12 |
Forecasting Analysis of Yan Cun Landslide |
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| XIONG Yan,HOU Tian-shun,WANG Hong-bo. Forecasting Analysis of Yan Cun Landslide[J]. Building Science, 2007, 23(11): 26-28,34 |
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| Authors: | XIONG Yan HOU Tian-shun WANG Hong-bo |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Civil Engineering Faculty, Hunan City University, Yiyang 413000, Hunan, China;2. Engineering Faculty of China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China |
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| Abstract: | After introducing the general geology of Yan Cun landslide,the stability coefficient of three working conditions(175m normal water level;175m water level rainy-season;flood level of storing water) are calculated with push method of residues,then the destructive probability of Yan Cun landslide is analyzed systematically with Monte-Carlo probability model. |
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| Keywords: | forecasting residual intensity stability Monte-Carlo probability model destructive probability landslide |
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