Housing price and transaction intensity correlation in Hong Kong: implications for government housing policy

Examination of the causal relationship between housing price and transaction intensity helps us understand the housing market dynamics better. The housing market is a very unique asset market as demand for housing comes from both demand for investment return and demand for a shelter/accommodation. Empirical analysis on this causal relationship therefore provides government with important policy considerations. In this paper, we will examine such correlation between housing price movements and transaction intensity in Hong Kong with a core objective of getting a better understanding of the housing market behavior in this city so that more effective government housing policy could be devised. We examine the price–transaction correlation observed in the Hong Kong housing market by means of a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model, with a time series spanning over the period from 1993 to 2014. Without examining other macroeconomic variables such as employment and gross domestic product, our Granger causality test shows a strong evidence, suggesting that housing price Granger causes transaction intensity in the housing market of Hong Kong, but not vice versa. The findings buttressed by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the bounds test results on cointegration relationships support our conclusion. Based on these results, we question the current government housing policy which aims mainly at suppressing demand and hence transaction intensity, if the objective of government intervention is to bring housing price level to a more affordable level. Housing policy therefore should aim at effectuating the supply channel so that there is a clearer signal of constant and effective supply of housing units, which will eventually help stabilize housing price.     

基于VAR模型的居民杠杆率与住房价格关系研究

基于我国居民杠杆率快速攀升，以及房价持续上涨的现象，采用2005~2017年我国经验数据，以VAR模型为基础，借助Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法，实证检验了居民杠杆率与住房价格之间的互动关系。结果表明:购房信贷对居民杠杆率具有单向Granger因果关系，购房信贷扩张导致居民杠杆率上升；居民杠杆率与住房价格之间存在双向Granger因果关系，两者循环互推、螺旋上升。结果可能会加剧我国房价泡沫风险，据此提出了加强住房市场的预期管理、分散居民加杠杆在住房买卖市场的集中度以及加强信贷管理等对策建议。     

编制住房建设规划的几点思考

供不应求是房价上涨的主要原因。我国城镇住房供需平衡逆转的时间点,可能与美国货币政策转向的时间点重合。届时房价大幅下跌的可能性剧增,将给我国金融系统稳定乃至国民经济健康发展带来严重影响。编制住房建设规划,科学判断未来一段时期城镇住房供求关系,有助于稳定和引导市场预期,实现房价与消费能力基本适应。我国住房建设规划工作现在处于起步摸索期,要尽快启动全国及省区级住房建设规划的编制工作,细化住房政策目标;要科学预测住房需求,合理确定住房建设目标;要编制存量住房改造规划,重视发挥现有资源作用;要优化住房建设空间布局,平衡地区间供需,并方便各阶层群众生产和生活;要妥善处理保障与市场之间的关系,严格执行发展小户型住房的有关政策;要充分发挥房产税作用,降低房屋空置率。     

基于系统动力学的沈阳市房价影响因素分析

运用系统动力学方法构建城市住宅市场仿真模型,探究影响房价变化的主要因素。结合沈阳市住宅市场的发展实际, 通过 Anylogic 软件构造系统因果关系反馈图以及流程图,再利用回路建立数学关系模型,选取房产税、贷款利率、限购政 策 3 个变量,讨论不同政策对房价产生的影响。研究发现,开征房产税,使得市场需求量明显降低;限购政策在一定时期内 可以维持房价的稳定;提高银行贷款利率,房价没有出现较大波动;在限购政策和利率综合作用下,对房价产生的影响较大。     

北京市房价和地价关系分析

利用北京市的相关数据,采用Granger因果关系检验分析方法,定量分析北京市房价和地价的因果关系,发现:从短期看,房价对地价存在着较为显著的影响,从中长期看,房价与地价各自由自身的供求关系决定,互相之间没有显著的因果关系。     

Housing and consumer markets in urban China

In China, the real estate sector has been one of the most powerful driving forces in economic development over the past two decades. The housing sector, particularly, has a strong wealth effect on consumption. This has attracted much attention not only in academia but also in society at large. Yet little is known about the relationship between housing and consumption in urban China. An investigation into the causal relationship between the money flow of the housing market and that of the consumer market for local citizens in urban China applies a recently developed method: renormalized partial directed coherence (renormalized PDC). This is an advanced tool to exclude the indirect relationships between the housing and consumer markets. Since the original renormalized PDC cannot show the result numerically, we quantify the relationships by developing a set of criteria for further discussion within the renormalized PDC framework. The empirical work reveals two major findings: (1) the retail price level is quite useful in predicting the housing turnover-income ratio; (2) the rental price is one of the most important factors affecting the fluctuation of retail prices for the case of urban areas in China. A housing turnover-income ratio (HTIR) is developed to evaluate the money flow into the housing market, which provides a new way to carry out data analysis when the usual indicators might be inappropriate. The research provides a reference point for economic policymaking for the relationship between the money flow into the housing market and the money flow into the consumer market.     

Real estate prices in Kenya: is there a bubble?

This study focuses on the determinants of the prices of houses in Nairobi, Kenya. The study finds housing prices to have positive relationships with GDP, diaspora remittances, lending rates, loans to real estate sector and cost of construction. A negative relationship exists between the house prices and inflation. Results of the cointegration tests indicate the existence of stable long-run relationships between house prices and each of GDP and NSE Index, while unstable relationships are reported for diaspora remittances and building costs. Using fractional integration, the results show higher orders of integration for the house price series compared with the other variables, though the study is indifferent about the existence of a house price bubble. Granger causality tests indicate there are no causal relationships between house prices and diaspora remittances. However, there are two way causalities between house prices and each of GDP, building costs and NSE Index. This negates the existence of a house price bubble.     

Empirical tests to discern linkages between construction and other economic sectors in Singapore

The construction industry makes significant contributions to the socio-economic development process in most countries. Its importance in the economy is due largely to the direct and indirect impact it has on the national economy. It stimulates the growth of other sectors through a complex system of linkages. Interest in multi-sectoral linkages was generated following Hirschman's work that investigated the relationship between unbalanced sectoral growth and economic development. Most of the past research work had used Leontief's input-output analysis to gauge the backward and forward linkages between industries. This paper proposes an econometric procedure that can be used for determining the construction output linkages. This involves unit-root testing and Granger causality testing. The main purpose is to determine the impact of a fluctuation in construction output on the sectoral production and the economy of Singapore. This helps to assess the role of the construction industry and how it is affected by the changes in the other economic sectors.     

Price discovery of property markets in Shenzhen and Hong Kong

Hong Kong and Shenzhen, while being interrelated in many aspects, have encountered different types of demand shocks throughout the past decade. This is likely due to disparities in market conditions and degrees of government regulations. In the light of such differences in property price trends, this research first investigates the relationships between housing prices and market fundamentals for both cities; and then it explores whether a housing price bubble existed for them in 2006. The results indicate that housing prices seem to have interacted abnormally with market fundamentals in recent years, especially for Shenzhen. In addition, while Shenzhen’s housing prices are mainly explained by previous housing prices and personal income, most economic indicators explain Hong Kong’s housing prices well. With regard to price bubbles, a puny bubble which amounts to as much as 4.5% of the housing price was formed in Shenzhen in 2006. In the meantime, the housing price bubble for Hong Kong had been diminished. Though currently not at dangerous levels, housing price bubbles should be taken with caution especially in today’s China, characterized by overinvestment and rapid policy changes.     

House price diffusion of housing submarkets in Greater Sydney

Abstract

Despite numerous studies investigating house price diffusion between regional cities, few have considered a spillover effect among housing submarkets within a metropolitan city. This study expands upon the limited literature to examine house price diffusion of housing submarkets (namely, low-priced and high-priced submarkets) in Greater Sydney, one of the most diverse housing markets in Australia, using convergence tests, cointegration techniques, Granger causality and dynamic ordinary least square cointegration tests. The results show that a long-run relationship in house prices exists between these two submarkets in Greater Sydney. Importantly, the empirical results show that a large degree of diffusion takes place from the less prosperous submarket to the high-end submarket. This supports the equity transfer hypothesis via a filtering process in which house prices in the low-priced submarket will be transmitted into the high-priced submarket. The study also finds that the low-priced submarket is the primary reactor to changes in economic fundamentals. These findings have some profound implications for policy-makers and housing investors.     

Equilibrium between interest payments and income in the housing market

The literature on housing markets suggests that house prices in almost all western economies can be explained by short-run demand-oriented variables and a long-run term. The basic principles of the theory are that the short-run fluctuations, which are based on recent price developments (shocks), occur due to market imperfection, while over the long term, causality with such fundamentals as income will recover. Nonetheless, many of the interesting questions in housing economics concern adjustments toward equilibrium. This paper seeks to identify a long-run equilibrium between interest payments and household income (interest-to-income ratio) instead of between house prices and income (price-to-income ratio).

重庆市商品房价格与供求经济指标关系研究

通过构建商品房价格与商品房施工面积、竣工面积、销售面积的回归模型,对重庆市商品房市场的供求指标与房价的关系进行了分析。结果表明重庆商品房价格与商品房施工面积、竣工面积、销售面积存在着稳定均衡的关系,商品房价格影响商品房的施工面积、竣工面积和销售面积;商品房施工面积、竣工面积和销售面积长期存在均衡的关系,短期内供不应求,影响商品房的价格。     

Land banking and housing prices: A comment

Conclusions It was not the intent of this note to argue the question of the efficiency of a municipal land bank compared with a private land market nor the even more difficult question of the desirability of a land bank. Rather, the focus was on the impact that a municipal land bank, operated in a variety of ways, could have on housing prices.A land banking program could effectively reduce the price of housing below that which would prevail under a competitively organized, private land market. In order to achieve this result, the municipal authority would have to provide lots as demanded and systematically sell them below the price that would prevail in a private market.A land bank which provided lots as demanded, at the private market price, would produce results in the housing market identical with those obtained under a private land market.A land bank that limited the number of lots made available would actually force the market price of housing above that which would prevail given an unconstrained private land market, regardless of the price charged for lots.This analysis was conducted in a short-run context. Extension to the long-run would affect the position of the supply schedule for new houses and thus THS, but should not alter the general conclusions.     

Responses of selected economic indicators to construction output shocks: the case of Singapore

The volume of construction output fluctuates in response to changes in demand and supply conditions. Due to the multiple linkages that the construction industry has with other economic sectors and the entire economy, the output shock is propagated through the economic system and reflected in several economic indicators, such as the outputs of other sectors, balance of payments and general prices. A study is reported on the short-term responses of some economic indicators in Singapore following a shock in the construction output, using the Granger causality approach, the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. Construction output shock had significant impact on the outputs of the commerce sector and ‘other services’. The heavy reliance of the Singapore construction industry on imported inputs has a direct impact on the balance of payments.     

The Housing Market and Tenure Decisions in Chinese Cities: A Multivariate Analysis of the Case of Guangzhou

sing a sample of recently completed 'commodity housing' in Guangzhou, i.e. dwellings that were built by development companies and sold or rented at full market price in the primary market, a multi-level logit analysis of the housing allocation process and of tenure decisions was conducted. The results of the statistical analysis are generally in line with the nature of housing market segmentation and the forces governing housing allocation and consumption in China in general and Guangzhou in particular. Residents in open market housing generally have higher incomes and hold higher-status jobs than those in the subsidised sectors. However, at the same time, the getihu or petty traders, who rank low in terms of occupational status, are also likely to be occupants of open market housing. Household characteristics also show systematic variations between occupants of different types of subsidised housing. In particular, residents of resettlement housing tend to occupy lower-status jobs. In terms of tenure choice, the results for the open market housing residents are to some extent consistent with studies conducted in market economies. In the subsidised sectors, the factors underlying homeownership are quite different between housing types. Occupation, for example, has significant effects on homeownership in both work unit housing and housing bureau housing, but the nature of the influence is quite different in each case. In the case of resettlement housing, none of the household attributes, with the exception of the head's year of service in present employment organisation, was found to be significant.     

重庆市商品房价格与经济基本面:基于时间序列数据的分析

房地产价格的大幅上升是经济基本面的合理反映、还是偏离基本面的泡沫体现,需要认真分析。运用计量经济模型中的协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型,对重庆市商品房价格和经济基本面之间的关系进行了分析研究,得出二者基本适应的结论。     

Impacts of urban environmental elements on residential housing prices in Guangzhou (China)

The amenity value provided by urban green spaces, water bodies and good environmental quality is difficult to assess and incorporate into urban planning and development. Developers and governments in China hitherto have seldom objectively factored these attributes into property pricing and associated decisions. The hedonic pricing method offers an appropriate approach to gauge such external benefits which contribute to real-estate transaction prices. This study explored the impacts of key environmental elements with a bearing on residential housing value in Guangzhou, including window orientation, green-space view, floor height, proximity to wooded areas and water bodies, and exposure to traffic noise. Four large private housing estates composed of multi-storied blocks with similar design and price bracket, catering to the mass property market, were sampled. Transaction price data and structural attributes of 652 dwelling units were acquired directly from developers. Data on environmental attributes were collected in the field. Two functional hedonic pricing method models, linear and semi-log, were constructed. The semi-log model offered comparatively stronger explanatory power and more reliable estimation. High floor on the multi-storey tenement blocks contributed implicitly 9.2% to the selling price. View of green spaces and proximity to water bodies raised housing price, contributing notably at 7.1% and 13.2%, respectively. Windows with a southern orientation with or without complementary eastern or northern views added 1% to the price. Proximity to nearby wooded area without public access was not significant, expressing the pragmatic mindset in the hedonic behavior. Exposure to traffic noise did not influence willingness-to-pay, implying tolerance of the chronic environmental nuisance in the compact city. The study demonstrates that hedonic pricing method could be applied in the Chinese context with an increasingly expanding and privatized property market. It could inform the decisions of policy makers and property developers concerning land selling and buying, land conversion, property development, urban nature conservation, and design of ecological green-space networks.     

A Long-Run Model of Housing Affordability

As a result of the recommendations of the Barker Review of Housing Supply in 2004, the Department of Communities and Local Government in England commissioned the construction of an econometric model of regional housing markets in order to examine the effects of different levels of housing construction on long-run affordability. The model has been regularly used as part of the policy-making process in England. The paper describes the structure of the model, which includes sectors covering house prices, household formation, tenure, migration flows, demographics and labour markets. Furthermore, through simulation analysis, the paper examines some of the key policy questions that have occurred in UK housing in recent years.     

基于挤出效应的住房保障规模对商品住房价格的影响

中国房地产市场中保障性住房的角色和作用愈加重要,保障性住房建设规模正在逐年扩大。商品住房价格变化是供给需求作用的结果,但是随着保障房供给规模的增加,商品住房价格的涨幅也会发生改变,说明保障房的供给规模会对普通商品房的供需产生影响。本文以北京市商品住房市场为例,选取住宅需求、住宅供给、住房投机对价格的影响为自变量,住宅价格为因变量,利用多元回归模型对商品住房价格变化进行实证研究,同时通过考虑保障房供给对住房市场产生的不同挤出效应,分析保障房供给规模供需变化对房价产生的影响,进而为政府制定相关的住房保障政策提供建议和对策。     

无锡房地产市场走势分析

基于无锡目前的发展模式和房市发展状态,对2011年~2013年无锡房产市场受宏观政策调控的影响进行了分析,综合分析影响价格的因素后,分别采用线性回归拟合、对数回归拟合、多项式回归拟合,比较R的大小,选用多项式回归拟合,对2014年无锡房地产市场房产价格进行了预测估计,结果表明:2014年无锡房地产市场价格总体保持平稳,但是略有上涨,涨幅在3%~5%之间。