Do Urban House Prices Converge?

We investigate two aspects of housing market price dynamics. Firstly, whether the spatial pattern of house prices in a metropolitan housing market converge or diverge over time and secondly, whether suburbs with relatively low (high) house prices 20 years ago continue to occupy the same relative position in the house price distribution. The empirical work uses a property transaction database for Melbourne to examine the changing distribution of suburban house prices over a nearly 20-year period (1990–2009) that spans two housing cycles. We focus on convergence measures that use Melbourne submarket-based repeat sale house price indexes as a unit of measurement. We find that house prices diverge, and so the gap between low-priced submarkets and high-priced submarkets is increasing. A second key result is that low-priced submarkets typically remain at the low end of the house price distribution, because their rates of appreciation fall short of those at the upper end of the house price distribution. The geography of house price dynamics suggests that the price gradient with respect to distance from the central business district is becoming steeper.     

Intra‐Urban migration and housing submarkets: theory and evidence

In the 1950s and 1960s a group of housing economists at Columbia University developed a framework for the analyses of urban housing markets which was based around the concept of housing submarkets and household migration. There is now widespread agreement amongst housing economists that submarkets should be adopted as a working hypothesis but the concept has been reformulated in terms of intra‐urban relative house price differentials. The accepted test for submarket existence uses a hedonic model of house prices which assumes market equilibrium. This paper returns to an analysis of submarkets which focuses on spatial migration patterns. By examining household intra‐urban mobility patterns in the Glasgow housing market it is possible to demonstrate that submarkets tend to be self‐contained. The analysis also suggests that the current standard statistical tests may be incomplete and in the case of Glasgow underestimate the number of submarkets.     

基于住房分市场理论的城市住房规划研究——上海城市住房分市场动态变化驱动力研究的启示

随着社会经济体制改革的不断推进和深化,我国城市发展的动力机制、城市住房系统的运作机制也发生了深刻变化,要求我国城市规划、住房规划理论和方法与时俱进。本文构建了我国住房分市场动态变化研究的理论框架,对上海市两个案例住宅区1994至2005年住房分市场动态变化驱动力的实证研究表明:影响不同区位、不同层级城市住房分市场动态变化的供、需因素复杂多样,在不同层面上广泛地与社会、经济、环境变化、区域甚至国际发展变化的趋势、城市规划控制和土地供应等因素联系在一起。住房分市场动态变化的研究对我国市场化体制下的城市住房规划理论和方法的重构具有重要意义,也可为住房需求的评估和住房调控政策的制定提供依据。     

Capturing Housing Market Segmentation: An Alternative Approach based on Neural Network Modelling

Various location specific attributes cause segmentation of the housing market into submarkets. The question is, whether the most relevant partitioning criteria are directly related to the transaction price or to other, socio-economic and physical, features of the location. On the empirical side, several methods have been proposed that might be able to capture this influence. This paper examines one of these methods: neural network modelling with an application to the housing market of Helsinki, Finland. The exercise shows how it is possible to identify various dimensions of housing submarket formation by uncovering patterns in the dataset, and also shows the classification abilities of two neural network techniques: the self-organising map (SOM) and the learning vector quantisation (LVQ). In Helsinki, submarket formation clearly depends on two factors: relative location and house type. Price-level clearly has a smaller role in this respect.     

Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to Assist Specification of a Hedonic Model

This research empirically tests the hypothesis that utilizing directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) as an ex-ante process to select variables for a hedonic model improves the model's performance. The results for both new and existing house submarkets indicated that DAG analysis mitigated the multicollinearity issue commonly observed in hedonic models. Using DAG analysis also improved the goodness-of-fit of the hedonic model for the new submarket. However, model specification through DAG analysis does not offer clear implications for improving forecasting accuracy, efficiency, and spatial error autocorrelation. The findings imply that DAG analysis for model specification can be a complementary step in the process of estimating hedonic models, especially when reducing standard error bias by alleviating potential multicollinearity is important in determining the attributes that affect housing prices.     

新形势下深化城市住房规划的探讨——1994-2005年上海住房次级市场动态变化研究的启示

我国城市住房体制由原先的计划福利体制向以市场为主导的体制的转变要求住房规划方法的相应转变。本文在分析住房供应和需求分层的基础上,提出了住房次级市场动态变化的理论框架,揭示了住房次级市场形成、运作和动态变化的过程。通过对上海两个案例住宅区1994-2005年住房次级市场变化的实证研究,提出了加强住房市场研究,以提高城市住房规划科学性和完善相关政策的建议。     

Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey

Abstract

Housing prices have increased substantially in some emerging markets in recent years. Turkish housing market has also experienced a boom over the last decade with rapid house price appreciations. This study is the first to employ two different house price indexes to analyze housing bubble in Turkey in two different time periods, 2010:M1–2014:M12 and 2007:M6–2014:M12. We first capture the determinants of housing price by employing Bounds test and then examine whether rising house prices have been justified by fundamentals by employing OLS/FMOLS/DOLS, Kalman filter and ARIMA models. The Bounds test results suggest that there is a long-term cointegration among house price indexes and housing rent, construction cost and real mortgage interest rate. The results imply that the Turkish housing market has experienced some cases of overvaluation, but not bubble formation. This evidence has several implications for house price dynamics and risks in the Turkish housing market. Based on Turkish experience, the study also draws policy implications for emerging housing markets.     

Sensitivity analysis of tax incidence in a spatial equilibrium model

In this paper, we show that the impact of an ad valorem tax on demand prices is the same for all interrelated spatial regions regardless of sizes of their price elasticities. In the case of a degenerate spatial equilibrium model in which several independent submarkets develop, the tax incidence is identical within a submarket; but varies between different submarkets. In the case of non-linear and/or non-separable demand and supply functions, the same results hold as long as (i) the tax does not affect unit transportation costs and (ii) a unique equilibrium commodity flow solution exists.     

Real estate prices in Kenya: is there a bubble?

This study focuses on the determinants of the prices of houses in Nairobi, Kenya. The study finds housing prices to have positive relationships with GDP, diaspora remittances, lending rates, loans to real estate sector and cost of construction. A negative relationship exists between the house prices and inflation. Results of the cointegration tests indicate the existence of stable long-run relationships between house prices and each of GDP and NSE Index, while unstable relationships are reported for diaspora remittances and building costs. Using fractional integration, the results show higher orders of integration for the house price series compared with the other variables, though the study is indifferent about the existence of a house price bubble. Granger causality tests indicate there are no causal relationships between house prices and diaspora remittances. However, there are two way causalities between house prices and each of GDP, building costs and NSE Index. This negates the existence of a house price bubble.     

House building and product differentiation: An hedonic price approach

This paper considers the extent to which the UKhouse building industry is competitive: anarea neglected by the existing housing marketand housing submarket literature. The paperpresents an analysis designed to test thehypothesis that house builders are able todifferentiate or `brand' their output. Statistics on private house building output andthe number of firms in the industry indicatethat it is dominated by large (volume) housebuilders in terms of output share. Theempirical analysis draws on a datasetcomprising 1,155 new housing transactions withphysical attributes and transaction prices forGlasgow between 1989 and 1992. Hedonicregression models are constructed and Chowtests are performed in order to test the nullhypothesis of product homogeneity between housebuilders. The results provide indications thathouse builders differentiate their output sincestatistically significant differences in houseprices that are not related to physical housingcharacteristics are identified.     

Can street segments indexed for accessibility form the basis for housing submarket delineation?

We test an approach to spatial housing submarket delineation using street segment as the spatial unit and using finely grained measures of accessibility derived from spatial network analysis. The underlying idea is that street segment connectivity captures fine variations in homebuyers’ preferences for the location. The advantage of the approach is that it is spatially fine grained; it uses the street segment, intuitively the most fundamental spatial unit for spatial housing market analysis; it allows the use of statistical tests to optimize within-submarket similarities, identifying spatial groups of street segments with the most similar accessibility features; it avoids the predefined arbitrary geographic boundaries usually used in spatial submarket delineation; it increases the variability of accessibility information in submarket delineation, accessibility being the principal spatial determinant of housing price; and it allows for normalized measures of accessibility at different spatial scales making it appropriate for comparative analysis across cities and across time. Using a case study of Cardiff, UK, we compare the results with a market segmentation scheme based on prior-knowledge, notably one relying on building-type classification. We conclude that street layout can be used to efficiently delineate housing submarkets, and that the estimation is very close to the scheme requiring prior-knowledge. It has advantages, however, that make it worthy of further investigation, namely its adaptability, scale-specificity and lower reliance on local knowledge of housing market culture and data.     

A Bayesian approach to hedonic price analysis

Two important objectives in hedonic price analysis are to predict sale prices and delineate submarkets based on geographical and functional considerations. In this paper, we applied Bayesian models with spatially varying coefficients in an analysis of housing sale prices in the city of Toronto, Ontario to address these objectives. We evaluated model performance and identified patterns of submarkets indicated by the spatial coefficient processes. Our results show that Bayesian spatial process models predict housing sale prices well, provide useful inference regarding heterogeneity in prices within a market, and may be specified to include expert market opinions.     

联立方程模型及其在房地产市场分析中的应用

联立方程模型可以描述变量之间复杂的相互作用关系,二阶段最小二乘法可以准确估计方程的结构参数。构筑了一个关于城市房地产市场的联立方程模型,研究结果表明,完整的城市房地产市场由租赁市场、住宅市场和土地市场构成,这三个市场之间是相互关联的;在城市房地产市场上,租金、房价和地价是同时决定的,他们之间存在联立和互动的关系,并共同受到外生变量的影响。     

House price inflation in the news: a critical discourse analysis of newspaper coverage in the UK

Abstract

In the UK, house prices have been rising over a long period, notwithstanding the disruption caused by the financial crisis, creating growing concerns about affordability particularly for younger households, while existing owners continue to enjoy windfall wealth gains. This paper uses critical discourse analysis to examine how these competing interests with respect to house price rises are represented in popular discourse. It systematically analyses newspaper coverage, comparing two time periods, one relatively stable and the second a period of rising house prices. This analysis exposes the powerful influence of industry insiders in creating the discourse of the housing market news, and how price rises are positioned as both beneficial and the ‘natural order’. Analysing the metaphoric representations of housing markets allows a closer interrogation of the ideological construct that associates a ‘healthy’ housing market as one of continuous price rises and shows how these discourses are deeply embedded, in ways that limit the scope for imagining an alternative house market functioning.     

陕西省公共租赁住房保障体系发展现状分析

中国处于经济高速发展的阶段,城市化与城镇化快速推进,经济快速发展不断加大贫富差距,更使房价不断攀升,这使得城市人群中低收入人群的住房问题变得棘手。因此,住房问题成为国内最热话题之一。由于租金高、房价高从而导致租房难、买房难,这是目前城市低收入人群共同的难处。目前公租房已经在大多数城市展开建设,但是陕西省公租房在制度、建设、管理及将来的运营过程中存在的问题值得思考。对于公租房的发展现状进行分析对研究公租房保障体系很有帮助,通过分析问题可以对公租房目前存在的问题加以改善,以完善中国住房保障体系。     

Online Housing Search and the Geography of Submarkets

The importance of search behaviour has long been recognised in the study of housing markets, but research in this area has frequently been hampered by lack of data. In many nations, the vast majority of initial housing search queries are now conducted online and the data this generates could, in theory, provide us with better insights into how housing market search operates spatially, in addition to generating new knowledge on the geography of local housing submarkets. This paper seeks to explore these propositions by discussing existing conceptions of search before developing a framework for understanding housing search in the digital age. A large, user-generated housing market search data-set is then introduced and analysed with respect to area definition, submarket geography and search pressure locations. The results indicate that this kind of ‘big data’ approach to housing research could generate important new insights for housing market analysts.     

Neighbouring house transaction response to assisted living facilities and nursing homes

Abstract

Senior group housing that offers services signals that its residents have physical and/or cognitive limitations, which may be viewed as a neighbourhood disamenity. Buyers may discount house values near group homes due to negative perception of the residents or the structure. Most senior group home residents come from the surrounding community; therefore, residents of neighbourhoods with a large proportion of older residents may perceive nearby senior housing as desirable. We employ a system of equations to examine the influence of assisted living and nursing homes on single-family house sales prices and time-on-the market. The results indicate that the presence of a senior group home, especially a nursing home, within one-half mile has a significant negative effect on single-family house prices. The effect is most evident in neighbourhoods with few elderly residents. A clustering effect is present in non-distressed sales. The scale of a nearby senior group home contributes to a longer marketing duration, especially for distressed sales.     

中国房价涨势的需求拉动和溢出效应研究

基于 2006~2016 年中国 30 个省市的房价面板数据,运用固定效应模型和分位数回归从整体和局部的视角来探讨房价波动的影响因素。研究结果表明:从整体来看,收入和房价溢出水平拉动房价上涨的特征较为明显;在东部地区,人口因素对房价波动的正向影响强于其他因素;在中部地区,建设成本和房价溢出因素的变动对房价波动的影响最大;在西部地区,人口因素和房价溢出因素对房价涨势的影响最为显著。研究认为,应坚持贯彻“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”理念,遏制房地产的投机行为,使住房逐步恢复到原有的“居住”属性。     

Marriage-induced homeownership as a driver of housing booms: evidence from Hong Kong

Abstract

Buying a home for marriage is customary in many societies. Traditionally, therefore, young couples getting married is a key driver of demand for homeownership. Yet the idea of marriage-induced demand for homeownership is a relatively underexplored component of housing price change. We examine the role of marriage-induced demand for homeownership in Hong Kong, a relatively self-contained housing market with fewer options for migration than most large cities. We use an instrumental variable strategy to test the hypothesis that more unmarried individuals at the prime age for marriage increases housing prices. We find that an additional one thousand marriage-aged but unmarried individuals leads to a seven per cent increase in housing prices. These findings confirm the importance of demographic factors such as cohort size and marriage rates on housing price projections, housing needs assessments, and housing policy.