Changes in Older Europeans’ Health Across Two Waves of SHARE: Life-Course and Societal Determinants

Building on recent research investigating the role of life-course factors (including childhood conditions) and societal context in older Europeans health status, this study investigates the determinants of changes in elders’ health across two waves of the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Controlling for individuals’ current living conditions at baseline, our analysis provides evidence for long-term associations between childhood conditions (SES, health, cognition) and health dynamics in older age. Moreover, our findings suggest that income inequality tends to increase elders’ risk of experiencing negative health changes (decreases their chance to recover from poor health, respectively). Our study underlines the importance of accounting for both life-course and societal determinants of later life health dynamics.     

浅析南通僮子传承的原因

僮子的娱人性越来越强,内涵较为宽泛,呈示形态多姿多彩。贴近生活的表现方式、劝人为善的美好愿望、各种知识的广泛结合以及一定的治疗效果等等使得他的市场越来越宽广。     

一种优化的实时网络安全风险量化方法

准确地评估网络安全风险是提高网络安全性的关键.基于隐马尔卡夫模型的实时网络安全风险量化方法,以入侵检测系统的告警作为输入,能够实时量化网络风险值,有效评估网络受到的威胁,但仍然存在配置复杂、评估容易出现误差等问题.该文提出了优化的方法,利用参数矩阵自动生成代替手工设置,提高了准确性,简化了配置复杂度.首先将IDS告警和主机的漏洞、状态结合起来,定义攻击的威胁度来更好地体现攻击的风险,并对攻击进行分类,简化隐马尔卡夫模型的输入.其次,提出了利用遗传算法来自动求解隐马尔卡夫模型中的矩阵,定义风险描述规则作为求解的优化目标,解决隐马尔卡夫模型难以配置的问题.风险描述规则为描述网络安全风险提供了形式化的方法,利用这种规则建立的规则库可以作为风险评估方法的通用测试标准.最后,通过比较实验和DARPA 2000数据实际测试,证明文中方法能够很好地反映网络风险,量化网络面临的威胁.     

Asymptotic efficiency of kernel support vector machines (SVM)

The paper analyzes the asymptotic properties of Vapnik’s SVM-estimates of a regression function as the size of the training sample tends to infinity. The estimation problem is considered as infinite-dimensional minimization of a regularized empirical risk functional in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The rate of convergence of the risk functional on SVM-estimates to its minimum value is established. The sufficient conditions for the uniform convergence of SVM-estimates to a true regression function with unit probability are given. Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 4, pp. 81–97, July–August 2009     

需求依赖于价格情境下基于Copula-CVaR 的报童决策

探讨价格不确定下,需求-价格相关性与风险态度对决策行为的影响.建立随机需求与随机价格相关情境下基于Copula-CVaR的报童决策模型,Copula函数描述相关性,条件风险价值(CVaR)反映风险态度,证明了模型解的存在性和惟一性.蒙特卡罗模拟发现,需求与价格的相关性与风险态度对决策的交互作用使决策行为发生规律性变化,决策者对价格波动有一定容忍度,需求与价格相关性趋于不相关与完全负相关时市场趋于同质性.     

全生命周期软件过程风险管理模型研究

首先从软件过程的角度重新定义了过程风险的基本概念;然后结合CMMI和软件的生命周期分别从软件过程、生命周期和风险管理构建了三维结构的软件项目风险管理模型,提出了基于CMMI的全生命周期的过程风险策划、识别、评估和监控全过程模型;最后建立了软件研制风险管理系统,该系统在实际应用中取得了较好的效果。     

基于生命周期理论的软件项目投标风险评估

传统软件项目投标的风险评估往往局限在投标过程的某个阶段,且评估具有较强的主观性。针对此问题,本文基于项目生命周期理论,采用熵权系数法和AHP方法来确定各个风险因素和项目生命周期各阶段风险的相对权值,利用模糊综合评判法对软件项目投标的风险进行综合评估。实例分析表明：所建立的风险评估模型克服了主观判断的弊端,使投标者明确整个项目生命周期及生命周期各阶段的风险控制的重点领域,具有良好的适用性。     

Analysis of underlying and multiple-cause mortality data: the life table methods

The stochastic compartment model concepts are employed to analyse and construct complete and abbreviated total mortality life tables, multiple-decrement life tables for a disease, under the underlying and pattern-of-failure definitions of mortality risk, cause-elimination life tables, cause-elimination effects on saved population through the gain in life expectancy as a consequence of eliminating the mortality risk, cause-delay life tables designed to translate the clinically observed increase in survival time as the population gain in life expectancy that would occur if a treatment protocol was made available to the general population and life tables for disease dependency in multiple-cause data.     

电力企业移动智能终端安全应用初探

分析电力企业使用移动智能终端时所面临的信息安全风险,提出借鉴电力企业桌面终端安全管理模式来对企业用移动智能终端进行安全管控的思想,并结合当前成熟的移动智能终端管理技术．对适合于电力企业的移动智能终端安全管理模式进行探讨。     

MAGA-WNN模型在明胶浓度软测量中的应用

胶液浓度的测量在明胶的生产过程中是一项很重要的任务,为解决明胶浓度胶液手工检测中存在的滞后时间长、测量误差大等实际问题,将软测量技术应用到明胶的浓度测量中。通过对明胶生产工艺的分析,采用小波神经网络建立软测量模型,利用混合变异自适应遗传算法对模型参数进行优化。用现场采集并归一化后的120组数据做仿真实验,其中80组作为训练,40组作为预测。仿真结果表明,该算法迭代67次后误差平方和低于0.01并趋于稳定。证明混合变异自适应遗传算法可增强小波神经网络模型的鲁棒性和提高收敛速度。所以该算法用于明胶浓度的软测量中是可行的。     

Optimal lead time policy for short life cycle products under Conditional Value-at-Risk criterion

The lead time reduction problem in a supply chain with a risk-averse retailer and a risk-neutral manufacturer for short life cycle products is studied in this paper. Lead time can be reduced by additional crashing cost to enhance forecast accuracy of uncertain demand. Under Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) criterion, the effects of decision maker’s risk aversion and additional crashing cost for lead time reduction on optimal decisions are analyzed. Moreover, a revenue sharing contract is proposed to achieve supply chain coordination. The results suggest that when the retailer is more risk-averse and when forecast error is larger, the retailer tends to select a shorter lead time despite the higher wholesale price charged by the manufacturer. However, if the retailer is mildly risk-averse and the forecast error is small, he might not select to shorten the lead time because of associated additional crashing cost. Thus, the retailer should carefully balance the benefit against the cost of lead time reduction. In addition, we find lead time reduction is conductive to improving supply chain efficiency compared to the case without lead time reduction. Revenue sharing contract can achieve supply chain coordination and Pareto improvement for both supply chain agents. The improved utilities increase as the decision maker is more risk-averse and the forecast error is higher.     

An effective fuzzy C-means algorithm based on symmetry similarity approach

Fuzzy C-means (FCM) partitions the observations partially into several clusters based on the principles of fuzzy theory. However, minimization on the Euclidean distance in FCM tends to detect hyper-spherical shaped clusters, which is unfeasible for the real world problems. In this paper, an effective FCM algorithm that adopts the symmetry similarity measure is proposed in order to search for the appropriate clusters, regardless of the geometric structures and overlapping characteristic. Experimental results on several artificial and real life datasets with different nature and the performance assessment with other existing clustering algorithms demonstrate its superiority.     

北方艺术一体化运用研究--写意花鸟画与印章

在当前国画创作趋于写实甚至超写实的状态下。北方写意花鸟画从其正大气象绝能独立,给画坛带来了强劲的“东北风”和浓郁的时代气息。北方写意花鸟之作无不凌射着北方的粗犷奔流之气以及旺盛难抑的生命之气,小中见大．将人引入高处不胜寒的祟高美学境界之中。然当欣赏者或学术研究者都侧重于画作的孤枣以及独到的笔墨关系的时候,都极容易忽略印章一一篆刻艺术在其画作中所起到的无可替代的重要作用。     

Performance of a Hedged Stochastic Portfolio Model in the Presence of Extreme Events

Classical methods for computing the value-at-risk(VaR) do not account for the large price variationsobserved in financial markets. The historical methodis subject to event risk and may miss some fundamentalmarket evolution relevant to VaR; thevariance/covariance method tends to underestimate thedistribution tails and Monte Carlo simulation issubject to model risk. These methods are therebyusually completed with analyses derived fromcatastrophe scenarios.We propose a special case of the extreme-valueapproach for computing the value-at-risk of a stochasticmulticurrency portfolio when alternative hedgingstrategies are considered. This approach is able tocover market conditions ranging from the usual VaRenvironment to financial crises.We implement a multistage portfolio model with anexchange rate dynamic with stochastic volatility. Theparameters are estimated by GARCH-t models. Thesimulations are used to select multicurrencyportfolios whose exchange rate risk is hedged andrebalanced each ten days, accounting for VaR. Wecompare the performances of the two most classicalinstitutional options strategies – protective puts andcovered calls – to that of holding an unhedgedportfolio in presence of extreme events.     

Evaluating the 300 mm wafer-handling task in semiconductor industry

The semiconductor industry is moving from the production of 200 mm wafers to 300 mm wafers. With the increase in wafer size, the workload of wafer handling tasks is also increasing. This study evaluated the operator's handling capability, and the risk of having musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) for handling 300 mm wafers. Twenty-four female operators from a semiconductor manufacturing company participated in the experiment. Subject’s psychophysical, and physiological responses were measured. Posture analysis and biomechanics analysis were also conducted to evaluate the local strain at different joints. The results suggest that loading and unloading front opening universal pod (FOUP) at 90/90 cm is best for enhancing handling capability, wrist posture, and minimizing L5/S1 compression force. About 30% of the operator's FOUP handling capabilities were lower than the safe load limit (25%ile Maximal alleptable weight of lift) recommended by SEMI (Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International). Handling wafers at 90/125 tends to increase the risk of causing shoulder and wrist injuries. Handling wafers at 90/35 tends to induce greater strength loading at hip joint, and cause greater wrist radial deviation. To minimize the risk of having MSDs, countermeasures such as training appropriate method of FOUP handling, minimizing manual carrying, specifying ergonomic machine equipment interface, and assigning male operators for high frequency FOUP handling tasks were proposed. Positive feedbacks are obtained.

Relevance to industry

The results of this study provided useful information to improve the design of 300 mm wafer handling task, which enhanced the safety and health of operators in the semiconductor manufacturing workplace.     

锌镍单液流电池二维瞬态等温模型

综合考虑动质量传递、电荷守恒以及电极反应动力学,本文建立了锌镍单液流电池二维瞬态等温模型。在与实验数据对比验证了模型准确性基础上,研究了放电过程中电池内部流场、浓度场的分布及变化规律,并进一步考察了流速和离子浓度对放电性能的影响。研究结果表明：主流区流速较高,由对流控制传质过程,离子浓度分布均匀,多孔介质域和近壁面流速趋于0,由扩散控制传质过程,离子浓度梯度较大。需要更多地关注负极表面锌离子的浓度极化,浓度最大值在出口处的负极表面。 流量每增大一倍放电电压有微小的提升,流量超过5.7 ml/s,这种作用几乎失效。提高锌离子浓度不利于提升电池放电性能,但是提高氢氧根离子浓度对于提升放电电压效果明显。此外,提高电解液流速或者改变离子初始浓度都不会影响总的放电时间。     

Exploring the factors affecting myopic drivers’ driving skills and risk perception in nighttime driving

The aim of this study was to investigate how various factors affect myopic drivers’ nighttime driving skills and nighttime risk perception. A total of 400 myopic drivers and 100 non-myopic drivers participated in the study. The participants were asked to complete a questionnaire that included demographic information, a quality of life scale, a nighttime driving skills scale, and a nighttime risk perception scale. To explore the correlations and differences among demographic information, quality of life, myopic drivers’ nighttime driving skills and nighttime risk perceptions, bivariate correlation analysis and analyses of covariance were conducted on data from 364 valid myopic drivers’ questionnaires and 81 valid non-myopic drivers’ questionnaires. Moreover, a structural equation model was built to explore the predictors of myopic drivers’ driving skills and risk perception at night and to measure the relationships among various factors. The results indicate that non-myopic drivers reported a lower level of nighttime risk perception than myopic drivers, whereas their nighttime driving skill was significantly higher than that of myopic drivers. Female myopic drivers reported significantly higher risk perception and lower driving ability than males. Additionally, drivers with at least a bachelor degree had higher nighttime risk perception than drivers without a college degree. As the degree of myopia increased, nighttime driving ability decreased, and nighttime risk perception improved. Myopic drivers’ quality of life was the strongest predictor of nighttime driving skills and nighttime risk perception. These findings suggest that further studies of myopic drivers’ driving behaviors should not only consider their visual characteristics, but also explore the relationship between their quality of life and driving behaviors, especially for highly myopic drivers.

     

Ergonomics risk assessment with digital human models in car assembly: Simulation versus real life

This study investigated how well ergonomics risk assessments on simulations with digital human models (DHM) match real‐life assessments obtained on a car assembly line. Two ergonomists evaluated 20 work tasks in real life and as a DHM simulation using a company‐specific version of the Automotive Assembly Worksheet (AAWS) for assessing static postures, action forces, manual material handling, and extra strains. Results demonstrate that DHM simulations provide good estimations of the workload in real‐life tasks. Additionally, significant correlations were found between AAWS risk assessments and subjectively perceived exertion measured on the Borg scale. Yet, there were also some significant differences in AAWS risk classification and AAWS total scores. DHM simulations appear helpful for reliably detecting static postures and extra strains, whereas action forces are harder to estimate than in real life. It is suggested that comprehensive methods such as AAWS should be incorporated in DHM software for enhancing efficiency and validity of digital ergonomics risk assessment. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Shape optimization of stiffeners in stiffened composite plates with thermal residual stresses

The finite element analysis method is used to examine the influence of manufacturing-induced thermal residual stresses on the optimal shape of stiffeners in stiffened, symmetrically laminated plates. Three stiffener arrangements are studied via an optimization process in which the objective is to maximize the first natural frequency of the stiffened plate. The optimization problem is solved using the method of moving asymptotes (MMA). The numerical simulations indicate that thermal residual stresses can either cause a dispersion of stiffeners along the perimeter or a concentration around the centre. Further, the optimum fundamental frequency tends to increase with increasing temperature difference.     

Risk-sensitive filters for recursive estimation of motion fromimages

In this paper, an extended risk-sensitive filter (ERSF) is used to estimate the motion parameters of an object recursively from a sequence of monocular images. The effect of varying the risk factor &thetas; on the estimation error is examined. The performance of the filter is compared with the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the theoretical Cramer-Rao lower bound. When the risk factor &thetas; and the uncertainty in the measurement noise are large, the initial estimation error of the ERSF is less than that of the corresponding EKF The ERSF is also found to converge to the steady state value of the error faster than the EKF. In situations when the uncertainty in the initial estimate is large and the EKF diverges, the ERSF converges with small errors. In confirmation with the theory, as &thetas; tends to zero, the behavior of the ERSF is the same as that of the EKF