A real-time probabilistic channel flood-forecasting model based on the Bayesian particle filter approach

Reliable real-time probabilistic flood forecasting is critical for effective water management and flood protection all over the world. In this study, we develop a real-time probabilistic channel flood-forecasting model by combining a channel hydraulic model with the Bayesian particle filter approach. The new model is tested in the upstream river reach of Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on the Yangtze River, China. Stage observations at seven hydrological stations are used simultaneously to adjust the Manning's roughness coefficients and to update discharges and stages along the river reach to attain reliable probabilistic flood forecasting. The synthetic experiments are applied to demonstrate the new model's correction and forecasting performances. The real-world experiments show that the new model can make accurate flood forecasting as well as derive reliable intervals for different confidence levels. The new probabilistic flood forecasting model not only outperforms the existing deterministic channel flood-forecasting models in accuracy, but also provides a more robust tool with which to incorporate uncertainty into flood-control efforts.     

AR模型在宝珠寺水库实时洪水预报校正中的应用

人类活动改变了流域下垫面,对洪水预报精度产生极大的影响,引进实时校正模型以提高洪水预报精度。根据宝珠寺水库的自然地理和水文气象特性,宝珠寺水库实时洪水预报采用新安江模型,实时校正模型采用时间序列AR模型。利用10年历史降雨径流资料,对新安江和实时校正模型的参数进行率定,并利用近年的2次洪水对模型进行检验,检验结果表明实时校正能明显地提高洪水预报的精度。     

基于Micaps3.1的暴雨洪涝预报预警模块的研发

文中利用C#.NET构建了基于MICAPS3.1系统应用的暴雨洪涝预报预警系统整体框架,重点介绍了该系统开发的基本情况、系统架构和系统中使用的关键技术和算法。并选取汉江丹江口为试验流域,初步完成了流域基础地理（边界、水系）、气象、水文监测站点的收集以及显示;流域QPE、QPF、实况监测等气象要素实时产品信息的提取以及气象要素产品与水文模型接口的设计;最后提供了流域实况降水监测场、流域实况降水雷达估算场、流域预报雨量场、流域水文预报信息数据、图形等产品文件。该模块的研发能为流域防洪决策提供支持,并为河流防汛精细化预报服务试点工作的推广提供经验和模式。     

基于流水线模式的河系径流预报并发计算研究

在河系径流预报计算中,一方面受单站水文过程计算复杂性影响,另一方面下游站点依赖上游关联节点,现有洪水预报系统在河系预报计算时多采用串联模式进行计算。这在河流系预报节点较多、模型方法略为复杂时,计算效率较低。为突破河系径流预报计算效率瓶颈,本研究引入流水线并行模式,对河系径流预报站点初始化、单元产汇流计算、河道洪水演算、校正分析等模块进行拆解,构建流水线式工作站,将径流预报站点按水力联系连续入站,实现河系节点集径流过程的平行并发计算。选取淮河正阳关以上流域50余断面进行了模拟试验,结果表明：研究构建的并发计算方法计算结果可靠,较串行结构效率提升超3倍,可满足洪水预报实时性要求、尤其适用于B/S模式对系统响应效率的需求。     

智慧水利在四川洪水预报和防洪调度中的应用

随着水利部大力推进智慧水利建设,智慧水利已成为全国水利行业发展的必然方向。为探索智慧水利在洪水预报和防洪调度中的应用成效,简要说明四川省水旱灾害防御形势和预报调度技术发展现状,以四川省智慧水利建设为切入点,系统介绍水旱灾害防御智慧水利总框架,从感知层、支撑层、应用层对四川省洪水预报和防洪调度工作中的水文要素感知,信息存储传输,值班管理,实时水雨情监测,防汛形势分析,预报调度,水文应急分析,水情服务等关键环节进行详细阐述。以智慧水利在四川省 2020 年流域性特大暴雨洪水过程为例,通过分析洪水作业预报精度和流域水库群调度削峰滞洪成效,以及对比近年来防汛减灾经济效益增长情况等方式,说明智慧水利建设能够大幅提升水文监测自动化、预警预报实时化、预报调度一体化、分析评价智能化水平,带来更大的防汛减灾效益。     

淮河洪水预报调度系统建设及在抗流域大洪水的应用

针对传统预报与调度系统分散独立建设,信息与模型共享耦合和互动反馈自动化水平不高,系统通用性、安全性、跨平台功能不足等方面的问题,利用跨平台系统开发框架Spring Boot技术,构建新一代淮河洪水预报调度系统。该系统以电子地图、实时雨水情数据库、专用历史洪水数据库、智能化洪水预报和调度模型为关键支撑,建立洪水预报和调度模型自动化的互联互馈和协同耦合机制,集成防洪形势自动分析、多模式河系洪水预报、多模式洪水联合调度等业务功能,实现预报调度一体化、调度决策智能化和过程可视化。该系统在2020年淮河流域性较大洪水中进行实际应用,结果表明:系统有效实现多场景、多工况情况下的洪水预报与工程调度的联合模拟分析,为防洪预报调度业务提供重要技术支撑。     

A web based tool for operational real-time flood forecasting using data assimilation to update hydraulic states

This article describes an operational flood forecasting system set up for the city of Dijon, France. This system assimilates real-time flow data at an hourly time step with the stationary Kalman filter to update hydraulic states. It uses a semi-distributed hydrologic model to integrate rainfall measurements and forecasts and provide discharge forecasts at several points on the watershed. It also offers powerful data management tools and an elaborated graphical interface available from any computer connected to the Internet. The hydrologic model was calibrated using a semi-distributed approach. Its simulation and forecasting performances are analyzed. The performances of the system on a recent flood event are also investigated.     

An online collaborative semiconductor yield forecasting system

Yield forecasting is a very important task to a semiconductor manufacturing factory which is a typical group-decision-making environment. Namely, many experts will gather to predict the yields of products collaboratively. To enhance both the precision and accuracy of collaborative semiconductor yield forecasting, an online expert system is constructed in this study. The collaborative semiconductor yield forecasting system adopts the client–server architecture, and therefore the necessity for all experts to gather at the same place is relaxed, which is especially meaningful for a multiple-factory case. To demonstrate the applicability of the collaborative semiconductor yield forecasting system, an experimental system has been constructed and applied to two random-access-memory products in a real semiconductor manufacturing factory. Both the precision and accuracy of forecasting the yields of the two products were significantly improved. Besides, the collaborative semiconductor yield forecasting system was also considered as a convenient platform for the product engineers or quality control staff from different factories to share their opinions about the yield improvement process of a product being manufacturing with the same technology in multiple factories.     

EDDIE-Automation, a decision support tool for financial forecasting

Evolutionary Dynamic Data Investment Evaluator (EDDIE) is a genetic programming (GP)-based decision support tool for financial forecasting. EDDIE itself does not replace forecasting experts. It serves to improve the productivity of experts in searching the space of decision trees, with the aim to improve the odds in its user's favour. The efficacy of EDDIE has been reported in the literature. However, discovering patterns in historical data is only the first step towards building a practical financial forecasting tool. Data preparation, rules organization and application are all important issues. This paper describes an architecture that embeds EDDIE for learning from and monitoring the stock market.     

沿海风暴潮预警预报与灾情评估系统研究

台风是一种严重的自然灾害,引起的风暴增水会对沿海城市产生较大危害,快速准确的风暴潮预警预报及灾情评估是当前研究的热点和难点问题。结合实际业务需求,借鉴类似系统的开发模式,设计提出适用于沿海风暴潮预警预报与灾情评估系统的总体架构,开发预报与评估系统前端主要功能和服务器端相关功能组件,并在广东省进行应用部署。应用结果表明,预报和评估系统实用性和可操作性强,可为沿海防汛部门在台风期的防台会商决策提供强有力的技术支撑。     

GPRS／CDMA通信组网在城市防汛测报系统中的创新应用

在中国进入城镇化水平高速发展的时期,城市作为人口密集、经济要素积聚地区,灾害的监测预警处于十分突出的位置。城市防汛测报系统可为防汛决策部门提供基础支撑,确保城市人民生命财产安全,而系统数据传输的准确性与实时性尤为重要。文中通过GPRS／CDMA通信组网在上海市某大型城市防汛测报项目的实际应用,介绍了GPRS／CDMA通信组网在城市防汛领域的创新应用。     

山洪灾害区基于DEM的小流域划分技术

山洪灾害是我国主要灾害之一,山洪灾害预测预警是山洪灾害防治的重要非工程措施,小流域划分及其特征提取是山洪灾害预测预警系统的基础工作。结合流域实际情况,探讨了采用DEM技术进行小流域划分和特征提取的方法,提出了山洪灾害区小流域划分技术,为山洪灾害预测预警奠定技术基础。     

A two-stage dynamic sales forecasting model for the fashion retail

The difficulty with fashion retail forecasting is due to a number of factors such as the season, region and fashion effect and causes a nonlinear change in the original sales rules. To improve the accuracy of fashion retail forecasting, a two-stage dynamic forecasting model is proposed, which is combined with both long-term and short-term predictions. The model introduces the improved adjustment methods, the main adjustment model and error forecasting model in the adjustment system collaborated with each other. The real-time data are demonstrated by applying the model in wireless mobile environment. The experiment shows that the model provides good results for fashion retail forecasting.     

Flood forecasting in transboundary catchments using the Open Modeling Interface

Using satellite data for flood forecasting in catchments located in mid-latitudes is challenging to engineers and model developers, in no small part due to the plethora of data sets that need to be retrieved, combined, calibrated and used for simulation in real time. The differences between the various satellite rainfall data products and the continuous improvement in their quantity and quality render the development of a single software tool, able to read and process all the different data sets, particularly difficult. Even if such an endeavour was undertaken, the degree of flexibility and extensibility that such a tool would require to accommodate future versions of data sets, available in different file formats as well as different temporal and spatial resolution should not be underestimated. This paper describes the development of a flood forecasting system that addresses this issue through a modular architecture based on the use of the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI) standard, which facilitates the interaction between a number of separate software components. It is suggested that this approach greatly simplifies programming and debugging and eliminates the need to create spatial and temporal transformation functions without significantly compromising the overall execution speed. The approach and system were tested for forecasting flood events within a particularly challenging transboundary catchment, the Evros catchment, extending between Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey. The system uses two sets of data sources, as an example (NASA’s TRMM 3B42 and 3B42RT satellite data sets) to forecast flooding in the Evros catchment. Results indicate that OpenMI greatly facilitates the complex interaction of various software components and considerably increases the flexibility and extensibility of the overall system and hence its operational value and sustainability.     

秦淮河流域东山站洪水位预报模型研究

为了提高秦淮河流域洪水预报的水平,对东山站洪水位过程预报模型进行深入研究。采用线性动态系统模型与BP人工神经网络模型建立东山站洪水位逐时段预报模型,采用2010—2015年及2016—2017年汛期秦淮河流域实测雨量和东山站水位资料对模型进行率定和验证。结果表明:东山站洪水位逐时段预报的BP人工神经网络模型相对于线性动态系统模型具有较高的精度;相对于一维河网水动力模型,简单实用。     

基于无线通信的港航建筑泥沙冲刷监控系统

针对当前港航建筑泥沙冲刷监控中存在的问题,提出了一种港航建筑泥沙冲刷监控系统的设计方案。采用单片机作为系统的控制内核,引入通用分组无线业务（GPRS）传输模块,通过对港航建筑局部冲刷信息进行实时采集、传输和处理,解决了相关冲刷情况的测报问题。应用表明：系统运行稳定,测量误差小,可广泛应用于水库大坝、桥梁、河床等水土保持泥沙监控场合。     

基于集成学习的中小河流洪水预报

为解决传统数据驱动的洪水预报方法预报误差较大以及传统集成学习预报方法各个子网络间无法交互的问题,本文在单个模型预测基础上,选取异构的BP、CNN、LSTM神经网络,建立基于负相关学习的神经网络集成洪水预报模型,通过显式地添加正则化项对模型进行整体的误差-方差分解和分歧分解,使集成神经网络中各子网络之间并不完全独立,以保证集成模型的多样性,从而提高最终模型的预测准确率。在安徽屯溪流域的实验表明,基于负相关学习的模型可以有效地对洪水过程进行预报,与传统使用单个模型相比预测结果精度更高。     

ITRON-MP: an adaptive real-time kernel specification forshared-memory multiprocessor systems

A real-time kernel specification named ITRON-MP (industrial-oriented TRON for multiprocessor systems), which defines a standard kernel interface adaptable to various shared-memory multiprocessor architectures, is presented. ITRON-MP is an extension of ITRON, which is a specification of real-time kernels for embedded systems. The ITRON-MP specification is an open architecture, in that anyone can freely implement a kernel based on the specification. A universal implementation of ITRON-MP generates an adapted kernel code for each architecture. This approach presents a standard operating system interface for the development of various real-time systems and improves the efficiency of system development. Moreover, because the executed kernel code is tuned to each architecture, the runtime performance is not degraded by the standardization. The design principles and main features of ITRON-MP are described     

江西省小流域智慧防汛体系建设思路探讨

小流域防汛一直是防洪减灾工作中的重要内容,提出小流域防汛的新思路,利用无人机、洪水预报、洪水风险评估、三维可视化、信息及云计算等技术,开展小流域基础数据获取、水雨情信息采集传输、洪水预报、洪水风险分析、预警信息及应急响应等工作,探讨防汛云服务平台的搭建,构建小流域智慧防汛体系,以提升小流域洪水预报的精度,实现智慧防汛。     

基于粗糙集和CBR的救灾口粮需求预测

救灾口粮预测所采用的方法多以专家经验判断为主,具有较大的随机性。为此,从灾害案例的特点出发,针对案例推理时存在效率低下和权重确定差异性较大的问题,结合粗糙集处理不确定知识的优点和案例推理的特点,提出一种方法,实现灾害应急救灾口粮需求预测,并通过洪涝灾害实例进行分析。结果表明该方法有利于减少主观影响,提高需求预测的准确率和效率。