Review of Japan's power generation scenarios in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident

Following on from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Japanese government is now in the throes of reviewing its power policy. Under continuing policies of economic revival and greenhouse gas reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for the country to realize reliable, low‐carbon, and economic electricity systems in the future. On the other hand, the social acceptance of nuclear power will affect the final political decision significantly. Therefore, in the present study, proposed power generation scenarios in Japan in light of the Fukushima accident were reviewed comprehensively from economic, environmental, technological, resource, security, and social perspectives. The review concludes that in Japan, (i) renewable energy mainly solar and wind needs to be developed as fast as possible subject to various constraints, (ii) more gas power plants will be used to absorb the fluctuations of intermittent renewable energy and supply electricity gap, (iii) nuclear power will be reduced in the future, but a 0% nuclear power scenario by 2030 is unlikely to be a reasonable choice on most measures and (iv) the effective communication with the public is vital important. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nuclear power in open energy markets: A case study of Turkey

For many decades, like many developed countries, Turkey has controlled her electricity sector as a state-owned monopoly. However, faced with rapid electricity demand growth, Turkey started to consider nuclear option. The present paper aims at evaluating both the present status of nuclear power in general and its implications for Turkish energy market in particular. After examining existing nuclear power technology and providing a brief overview of nuclear power economics; it focuses on the repercussions of nuclear power for Turkish energy market. The paper concludes that, in the short run, it may be considered to keep nuclear power within Turkish energy mix because it is an important carbon-free source of power that can potentially make a significant contribution to both Turkey's future electricity supply and efforts to strengthen Turkey's security of supply. However, in the long term, nuclear power should be retained in Turkey only if it has a lower cost than competing technologies.     

Life cycle sustainability assessment of electricity options for the UK

The UK electricity mix will change significantly in the future. This provides an opportunity to consider the full life cycle sustainability of the options currently considered as most suitable for the UK: gas, nuclear, offshore wind and photovoltaics (PV). In an attempt to identify the most sustainable options and inform policy, this paper applies a sustainability assessment framework developed previously by the authors to compare these electricity options. To put discussion in context, coal is also considered as a significant contributor to the current electricity supply. Each option is assessed and compared in terms of its economic, environmental and social implications, using a range of sustainability indicators. The results show that no one technology is superior and that certain trade‐offs must be made. For example, nuclear and offshore wind power have the lowest life cycle environmental impacts, except for freshwater ecotoxicity for which gas is the best option; coal and gas are the cheapest options (£74 and 66/MWh, respectively, at 10% discount), but both have high global warming potential (1072 and 379 g CO₂ eq./kWh); PV has relatively low global warming potential (88 g CO₂ eq./kWh) but high cost (£302/MWh), as well as high ozone layer and resource depletion. Nuclear, wind and PV increase some aspects of energy security: in the case of nuclear, this is due to inherent fuel storage capabilities (energy density 290 million times that of natural gas), whereas wind and PV decrease fossil fuel import requirements by up to 0.2 toe/MWh. However, all three options require additional installed capacity for grid management. Nuclear also poses complex risk and intergenerational questions such as the creation of 10.16 m³/TWh of nuclear waste for long‐term geological storage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nuclear power and the environment: comparative assessment of environmental and health impacts of electricity-generating systems

This paper deals with comparative assessment of the environmental and health impacts of nuclear and other electricity-generation systems. The study includes normal operations and accidents in the full energy chain analysis. The comparison of environmental impacts arising from the waste-management cycles associated with non-emission waste are also discussed. Nuclear power, while economically feasible and meeting 17% of the world's demand for electricity, is almost free of the air polluting gases that threaten the global climate. Comparing nuclear power with other sources for electricity generation in terms of their associated environmental releases of pollutant such as SO₂, NOX, CO₂, CH₄ and radioisotopes, taking into account the full fuel chains of supply option, nuclear power will help to reduce environmental degradation due to electricity generation activities. In view of CO₂ emission, the ranking order commences with hydro, followed by nuclear, wind and photovoltaic power plants. CO₂ emissions from a nuclear power plant are by two orders of magnitude lower than those of fossil-fuelled power plants. A consequent risk comparison between different energy sources has to include all phases of the whole energy cycle. Coal mine accidents have resulted in several 1000 acute deaths over the years. Then came hydropower, also resulting in many catastrophes and loss of human lives, followed by the oil and gas energy industries, last in the list is commercial nuclear energy, which has had a “bad” press because of the Chernobyl accident, resulting officially in 31 acute fatalities, and at least 145 latent fatalities. The paper offers some findings and conclusions on the role of nuclear power in protecting the global environment.     

Evaluation of lifecycle CO2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century under various nuclear scenarios

The status and prospects of the development of Japanese nuclear power are controversial and uncertain. Many deem that nuclear power can play key roles in both supplying energy and abating CO₂ emissions; however, due to severe nuclear accidents, public acceptance of nuclear power in Japan has not been fully obtained. Moreover, deregulation and liberalization of the electricity market impose pressure on large Japanese electric power companies with regard to both the operation of nuclear power plants and the development of the nuclear fuel cycle. Long-term Japanese CO₂ reduction strategies up to 2100 are of environmental concern and are socially demanded under the circumstances described above. Taking these factors into account, we set the following two objectives for this study. One is to estimate lifecycle CO₂ (LCCO₂) emissions from Japanese nuclear power, and the other is to evaluate CO₂ emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century by quantifying the relationship between LCCO₂ emissions and scenarios for the adoption of nuclear power. In the pursuit of the above objectives, we first create four scenarios of Japanese adoption of nuclear power, that range from nuclear power promotion to phase-out. Next, we formulate four scenarios describing the mix of the total electricity supply in Japan till the year 2100 corresponding to each of these nuclear power scenarios. CO₂ emissions from the electric power sector in Japan till the year 2100 are estimated by summing those generated by each respective electric power technology and LCCO₂ emission intensity. The LCCO₂ emission intensity of nuclear power for both light water reactors (LWR) and fast breeder reactors (FBR) includes the uranium fuel production chain, facility construction/operation/decommission, and spent fuel processing/disposal. From our investigations, we conclude that the promotion of nuclear power is clearly a strong option for reducing CO₂ emissions by the electric power sector. The introduction of FBR has the effect of further reducing CO₂ emissions in the nuclear power sector. Meeting energy demand and reducing CO₂ emissions while phasing out nuclear power appears challenging given its importance in the Japanese energy supply.     

An integrated scenario analysis for future zero‐carbon energy system

An integrated scenario analysis methodology has been proposed for zero‐carbon energy system in perspectives of social‐economy, environment and technology. By using the methodology, service demands in all sectors were estimated based on social‐economic data, and then the best technology and energy mixes were obtained to meet the service demands. The methodology was applied to Japan toward zero‐carbon energy system out to the year of 2100, and three different scenarios of nuclear power development are considered in light of the Fukushima accident: (i) no further introduction of nuclear, (ii) fixed portion and (iii) no limit of nuclear. The results show that, zero‐carbon energy scenario can be attained in the year 2100 when electricity will supply 75% of total energy consumption, and three power generation scenarios were proposed, 30% renewable and 70% gas‐carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Scenario 1, respective one‐third nuclear, renewable and gas‐CCS in Scenario 2, and 60% nuclear power, 20% renewable and 10% gas‐CCS in Scenario 3. Finally, Scenario 2 is rated as the most balanced scenario by putting emphasis on the availability of diversified power source, considering the inter‐comparison of the three scenarios from the four aspects of cost, CO₂ emission, risk and diversity. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implications of the new National Energy Basic Plan for nuclear waste management in Korea

The Korean National Energy Committee has recently adopted a new National Energy Basic Plan according to which the electricity generated by nuclear power plants is to increase from the current 35.5% of total electricity production to 59% by 2030. This large increase in nuclear power will inevitably accelerate the accumulation of spent fuel; if the direct disposal option is pursued, spent fuel arisings in Korea are expected to exceed 100,000 tHM in 2100. It is estimated that the country will require between 10–22 disposal sites, each with an area equal to the Gyeongju low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste (LILW) disposal site, to accommodate this amount of spent fuel. However, considering Korea's geographic profile, securing this number of sites will be almost impossible, and will ultimately create a serious problem for the sustainability of nuclear energy in the country. In view of this dilemma, this paper recommends that the volume of Korean nuclear waste for disposal be significantly reduced, and offers sodium fast reactor (SFR)-based recycling as a potentially viable solution.     

Fukushima's impact on the European power sector: The key role of CCS technologies

The accident in Fukushima, Japan, in March 2011 has reactivated the discussion on how to meet ambitious climate mitigation objectives as some European countries reconsider the contribution of nuclear power in their energy mix. This study evaluates the impact of nuclear power reduction in Europe on the electricity mix under carbon emission reduction scenarios while considering the availability of carbon capture and storage technological options (CCS). The potential cost of carbon reduction is also addressed using the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR. The results suggest that CCS technologies constitute an interesting option in a case of stringent climate targets and limited nuclear electricity. However, the unavailability of CCS technologies induces a significant increase in carbon marginal cost and energy system cost to achieve the climate policy.     

Nuclear and intermittent renewables: Two compatible supply options? The case of the French power mix

The complementary features of low-carbon power sources are a central issue in designing energy transition policies. The French current electricity mix is characterised by a high share of nuclear power which equalled 76% of the total electric production in 2015. With the increase in intermittent renewable sources, nuclear flexibility is examined as part of the solution to balance electricity supply and demand. Our proposed methodology involves designing scenarios with nuclear and intermittent renewable penetration levels, and developing residual load duration curves in each case. The load modulation impact on the nuclear production cost is estimated.This article shows to which extent the nuclear annual energy production will decrease with high shares of intermittent renewables (down to load factors of 40% for proactive assumptions). However, the production cost increase could be compensated by progressively replacing the plants. Moreover, incentives are necessary if nuclear is to compete with combined-cycle gas turbines as its alternative back-up option.In order to reconcile the social planner with plant operator goals, the solution could be to find new outlets rather than reducing nuclear load factors. Nuclear flexibility could then be considered in terms of using its power to produce heat or hydrogen.     

Asian international grid connection and potentiality of DC superconducting power transmission

In 2011, a large scale earthquake and tsunami hit the northeastern coast of Japan, and nuclear plants were damaged to a large extent. Before the Tsunami, 54 nuclear plants were operated, however presently, only three nuclear plants are in operation. Therefore, Japan is suffering from high price of electricity and low supply reliability. In generation mix, nuclear plants generate only one percent and 87 percent of electricity is generated by fossil energy. This is not preferable for Japan from the viewpoints of energy security and stable electricity supply. Therefore, it is mandatory to increase sustainable energy and to decrease consumption of fossil fuel. International grid connection and the Global Energy Interconnection will be one of countermeasures against these problems existing in Japan. In this paper, international grid connection initiatives proposed in Asia are described and features and issues of electric power grids in Japan are discussed to implement the international grid connection. As the key technology for implementing the international grid connection, the present status of DC superconducting power transmission lines and power converters for long-distance power transmission lines are presented. In conclusion, conditions and legal frameworks for realizing the international grid connection are described.     

福岛核危机后日本新能源格局的转变及其影响与启示

日本新能源的发展趋势会对全球的能源变革产生巨大作用。从第一次石油危机至今,日本的新能源无论是总量还是在能源结构中所占的份额都有了质的飞跃,这不仅是因为新能源的技术和设备有了长足进步,更重要的是来自日本政府能源政策的支持,但2011年的福岛核危机将彻底改变日本的能源格局。日本政府宣布将中止核电发展计划,可再生能源将成为下一步能源发展战略的核心。然而日本的规模化可再生能源过程也面临着如何弥补核电站退役后的电力缺口、国土面积狭小、电网网架薄弱以及因电价过高导致的巨额补贴费用等诸多困难。与此同时也给日本带来了新的发展机遇,可再生能源将成为日本经济新的增长点。日本核危机使全球核能遭遇低潮期,而可再生能源将迎来新的发展机遇,这有可能催生第三次产业革命。同时也认识到,能源来源的过于单一化使得能源风险加剧,需要建立健全的、快速的能源应急机制,加大国际间能源合作,突破能源技术壁垒。此次日本核危机促使中国反思自身的核电发展策略。中国具有丰富的可再生能源资源,当前应抓住这一发展机遇,加大产品技术含量,切勿盲目扩大生产规模,同时拓展非主流型可再生能源生产设备市场。政府要把握整体布局,避免出现区域性生产"过度"。     

An assessment of Turkey’s nuclear energy policy in light of South Korea’s nuclear experience

Nuclear energy, which was once considered as the fuel of future and was abandoned after Chernobyl accident, has emerged recently in developed and developing countries as an option to combat climate change, to secure supply and to achieve sustainable development. Turkey, a developing country where most of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels and which has energy security problems, has adopted a new legislation giving financial incentives for nuclear power plant construction, along with a tender in 2008. However, the tender ended in a stalemate after the Council of State’s decision in November 2009. An evaluation of Turkey’s nuclear policy in light of South Korea’s nuclear experience gives us an explanation as to why Turkey failed in the last tender. Basically it was due to lack of a long term nuclear energy policy that comprehends social, economical, technical and political aspects of nuclear energy. Thus, it is argued that Turkey can benefit from nuclear energy if it formulates a comprehensive nuclear energy plan clearly interwoven with its economic development plans, establishes a proper legal framework and has domestic industry participation in nuclear technology development.     

Supply amount and marginal price of renewable electricity under the renewables portfolio standard in Japan

The Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) in Japan requires that approximately 1.35% of each retail supplier's electricity sales in FY2010 come from renewable energy sources (RES), for example, photovoltaics, wind, biomass, geothermal, and small hydropower. To help retail suppliers and renewable generators develop effective strategies, this study provides a quantitative analysis of the impact of this measure. We assume the supply conditions for electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES-E) based on regional resource endowments, and we derive the cost-effective compositions of renewable portfolios, RES-E certificate prices, and additional costs to retail suppliers. The future prospects of RES-E are assessed based on technology, region, and year up to FY2010. The analysis reveals that wind power and biomass power generated from municipal waste will provide the majority of the total supply of RES-E under the RPS. It also indicates that the marginal price of RES-E certificates will be approximately 5.8 JPY/kWh (5.2 USc/kWh) in FY2010, in the case wherein the marginal price of electricity is assumed to be 4 JPY/kWh (3.6 USc/kWh). In order to elaborate on this further, sensitivity analyses for some parameters of RES and the price of electricity are provided. The dynamic supply curves of RES-E certificates are also indicated.     

Nuclear power in Australia: A comparative analysis of public opinion regarding climate change and the Fukushima disaster

A nation-wide survey was conducted in 2010 to investigate the Australian public's attitudes to nuclear power in relation to climate change and in comparison to other energy alternatives. The survey showed a majority of respondents (42%) willing to accept nuclear power if it would help tackle climate change. Following the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Complex in Japan, an event triggered by the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, it was expected that support for nuclear power in Australia would change. In light of this, a follow-up survey was conducted in 2012. Indeed, the post-Fukushima results show a majority of respondents (40%) were not willing to accept nuclear power as an option to help tackle climate change, despite the fact that most Australians still believed nuclear power to offer a cleaner, more efficient option than coal, which currently dominates the domestic production of energy. Expanding the use of renewable energy sources (71%) remains the most popular option, followed by energy-efficient technologies (58%) and behavioural change (54%). Opposition to nuclear power will continue to be an obstacle against its future development even when posed as a viable solution to climate change.     

A methodology for the assessment of nuclear power development scenario

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has initiated an International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) in the year 2000. The main objective of INPRO is to help the world community to ensure that clean and safe nuclear energy is available to contribute in fulfilling the energy needs in the 21st century in a sustainable manner. This paper demonstrates a methodology as an application of INPRO assessment for constructing nuclear power development scenarios by the use of IAEA energy optimisation models MESSAGE and DESAE. The scenario for the overall growth of energy and electricity in India is considered as a case study since for several decades India is vigorously pursuing nuclear power development program to meet its growing energy needs. It is evident from this study that in order to develop a realistic nuclear power scenario, it is necessary to generate an overall energy and electricity scenario at first. Within the overall energy-electricity picture it can be envisaged how the nuclear power technology would contribute to supply the future energy needs.     

Effects of nuclear power plant shutdowns on electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions after the Tohoku Earthquake

This study analyzes how the substitution of fossil fuels for nuclear power due to the shutdown of nuclear power plants after the Tohoku Earthquake affects electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Japan. Results indicate that Japan generated 4.3 million metric tons (or 0.3%, with a 95% confidence interval) of additional CO₂ emissions in 2011 following the earthquake. The increase in CO₂ emissions stemmed from the combined effects of decreased electricity consumption due to energy conservation efforts and the substitution of fossil fuels for nuclear power following the Tohoku Earthquake. Results also show considerable spatial variation in the impacts of the earthquake on net CO₂ emissions. A majority of the prefectures (40 of 47 prefectures, or 85%) were predicted to experience higher CO₂ emissions after the Tohoku Earthquake while the remaining (7 prefectures) were predicted to experience lower CO₂ emissions. Our findings suggest that Japan and countries under similar risks may want to reformulate energy policy by emphasizing utilization of diverse power and energy sources, including more renewable energy production and electricity conservation. The policy reform should also consider spatial variation in the combined effects of reduced reliance on nuclear power and increased CO₂ conversion factors.     

核电事故对日本未来能源发展的影响及启示

东日本大地震引发的海啸造成福岛第一核电站重大泄漏事故,不仅对日本的社会与经济带来了显著的影响,也使得日本国内对核电的信任和依赖心理发生了动摇。为避免未来可能的事故发生,确保电力的安全稳定供应,日本各界展开了有关"核电是否是必须的"的大讨论,并对逐步摆脱核电的未来能源发展路径进行了探讨,其中的部分观点与思路值得我们在制定未来能源发展战略时加以借鉴。     

Status and outlook of China's free-carbon electricity

Global warming, increased energy demand, and tremendous air pollution are forcing China to revise its energy structure of electricity generation dominated by coal (80% of total electricity) towards low-carbon electricity. Vigorous development of carbon-free energy resources of electricity is a practical way towards low-carbon electricity in China. In this paper, we shall outline renewable power generation (hydropower, wind power, solar energy, biomass energy, nuclear power, ocean energy and geothermal) together with nuclear power for China, present a reserves assessment, the current status, and barriers for further development, and finish with an outlook towards the future. In our view, China has plenty of free-carbon energy resources to revolutionize its electricity structure and redirect it towards low-carbon electricity systems. Needed are the effective energy policies to get to the way.     

Towards a sustainable global energy supply infrastructure: Net energy balance and density considerations

This paper employs a framework of dynamic energy analysis to model the growth potential of alternative electricity supply infrastructures as constrained by innate physical energy balance and dynamic response limits. Coal-fired generation meets the criteria of longevity (abundance of energy source) and scalability (ability to expand to the multi-terawatt level) which are critical for a sustainable energy supply chain, but carries a very heavy carbon footprint. Renewables and nuclear power, on the other hand, meet both the longevity and environmental friendliness criteria. However, due to their substantially different energy densities and load factors, they vary in terms of their ability to deliver net excess energy and attain the scale needed for meeting the huge global energy demand. The low power density of renewable energy extraction and the intermittency of renewable flows limit their ability to achieve high rates of indigenous infrastructure growth. A significant global nuclear power deployment, on the other hand, could engender serious risks related to proliferation, safety, and waste disposal. Unlike renewable sources of energy, nuclear power is an unforgiving technology because human lapses and errors can have ecological and social impacts that are catastrophic and irreversible. Thus, the transition to a low carbon economy is likely to prove much more challenging than early optimists have claimed.     

福岛核危机对日本能源战略的影响及启示

至本世纪前10年,核能已成为日本能源供应中不可或缺的重要因素,然而,2011年因"东日本大地震"引发的福岛核危机却动摇了日本继续发展核能的信心,不得不对现有的能源战略进行调整。福岛核危机对日本原来制定的能源战略产生了巨大影响,其中包括能源战略目标难以实现,加剧了对化石燃料的依赖;造成大量的电力缺口,总发电量减少了1/4,导致消费者用电成本急剧增加;短期内不得不增加液化天然气、原油、燃料油和煤炭等化石能源的进口量,加剧了日本能源安全的不确定性。为了缓解福岛核危机所造成的一系列负面影响并保障能源安全,日本政府重新制定了能源战略——重点集中在去核能化,去核能化是顺应民意、安抚民心,并防止核事故再次发生的根本性战略,是日本的必然选择;同时高度重视可再生能源的发展,可再生能源发电比例将由2010年的10%跃升至2030年的35%,总发电量将由2010年的1100×108kW.h提高到2030年的3000×108kW.h;大力实施节约能源战略,提出2030年电力消耗量在2010年的基础上节约1100×108kW.h,能源消耗量在2010年的基础上节约720×108L;另外,日本政府还对电力系统进行改革。结合我国的能源战略及核电发展现状,日本的能源战略调整给予我国的启示包括:要将核安全置于首要地位、加速可再生能源发展和坚持节约能源战略。