"Race", gender,and internal migration within England and Wales

"First, the propensity of men and women to engage in interregional migration within the Pakistani and West Indian populations in England and Wales is examined for differentials, and these propensities are compared with those derived from a white, control population. Second, the main spatial flows of long-distance gender-specific migration are described. Third, the rewards which different groups derive from internal migration are considered and any gender discrepancies are highlighted. Last, the conjunction of 'race', gender, marital status, and migration is investigated to see whether certain subgroups suffer a treble jeopardy and whether this is exacerbated or alleviated by different gender roles within the Afro-Caribbean and Pakistani populations."     

Describing migration spatial structure

The age structure of a population is a fundamental concept in demography and is generally depicted in the form of an age pyramid. The spatial structure of an interregional system of origin-destination-specific migration streams is, however, a notion lacking a widely accepted definition. We offer a definition in this article, one that draws on the log-linear specification of the geographer's spatial interaction model. We illustrate our definition with observed migration data, we discuss extensions and special cases, and proceed to contrast our definition and associated empirical findings against another measure having an alternative definition. Received: 11 October 2000 / Accepted: 3 April 2001     

Functional forms and the relevance of contiguous migration in the study of migration and employment growth

Previous studies on interstate migration have dealt with total migration without decomposing it into contiguous and noncontiguous migration flows. Since migration over borders of contiguous states may merely reflect changes in residence without changes in economic activities, the use of total migration data might reduce the reliability of empirical results. In this study, a simultaneous-equation model containing two equations, one for migration and the other for employment growth, has been specified in a general form and estimated by the 2SLS method for total, contiguous and noncontiguous migration flows. Results obtained from the use of 1970 Census data show that noncontiguous migration behaves significantly different from contiguous migration, and that noncontiguous migration, rather than total migration, should be used for the study of factors affecting interstate migration. Results also indicate that the log-linear functional form commonly used in empirical studies cannot be accepted statistically.     

Age articulation of U.S. inter-metropolitan migration flows

A fundamental divide in migration research has existed between aggregate studies of movement among geographic regions and micro studies of individual migrant behavior. Micro-scale studies have highlighted the importance of stage of life-cycle in predicting movement propensities, whereas many aggregate studies have focused on age-aggregated data summed over all origins for in-migration and over all destinations for out-migration. In this paper we show that if data for functional metropolitan-centered regions are employed, and if origin-destination specific streams of movement are analyzed, the age-specific patterns of inter-metropolitan migration within the United States cluster into distinctive patterns of flow representative of key stages of the life-course. In order to expose and portray a rich, age-articulated geography of U.S. migration we aggregate county-to-county migration flow data from the 1990 census for extended metropolitan regions: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Economic Areas. We calculate destination-specific out-migration rates broken down into 17 age groups for each origin-destination-specific migration stream between pairs of Economic Areas and present the results of a factor analysis of these flow-specific age profiles. We use the factor scores to cluster the very large number of origin-destination-specific age profiles and find that seven characteristic types emerge reflecting key mobility stages of the life course. We analyze the distinctive characteristics of the migration flows in each cluster and based on the prevalence of flows of each type within streams of gross in- and gross out-migration we present a typology of the 172 BEA Economic Areas. Our conclusion is that better understanding the age articulation of origin-destination-specific flow patterns would help advance regional science migration research. Received: January 2001/Accepted: June 2002 Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the 47^th North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, Chicago, Illinois, USA, November 9–12, 2000 and at the 12^th International Symposium Hosted by the Executive Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Science Conference Organization, Tokyo, Japan, October 1–3, 2000. The authors thank Joseph Persky, Roger Bolton, Hiroyuki Shibusawa, and Roger Stough for helpful suggestions made at those two presentations. The authors gratefully acknowledge the expert computer programming assistance of Lucy M. Carruthers of the Center for Computing and Information Technology of the University of Arizona. We also thank Chris Henrie, Ph.D. student, University of Arizona, for constructing our base map of BEA Economic Areas. Frank Heins would like to thank the National Research Council of Italy (Short-term Mobility Program 1999) for financially supporting a stay at the Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Arizona. During his stay the groundwork for this research was laid. David Plane would like to acknowledge the support of the Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau for his 2001–2002 academic year visiting research position during which the final analyses and revisions were made.     

NaCl溶液运移过程的电容成像法室内监测研究

电容成像法是根据被测物质各相具有不同的介电常数,当各相组分分布或浓度发生变化时,将引起被测介质介电常数发生变化,从而使测量电极对间的电容值发生变化。以这些电容测量值作为投影数据,通过一定的图像重建算法,便可以获得介电常数分布,从而获得物质分布的图像。本研究运用电容成像法对NaCl溶液运移过程进行了实时监测,首先通过小砂盒进行了用不同浓度NaCl溶液饱和的多孔介质测定,得到了电容标定曲线,从而说明了电容成像法的有效性,然后通过砂槽进行了非饱和带中NaCl溶液的运移试验,并利用电容成像法进行了同步的动态监测,得到横纵向电容时间变化曲线,以及影像图,并通过三维电容相对值变化明显的看出NaCl溶液运移过程。这说明利用电容成像法对非饱和多孔介质中NaCl溶液的空间分布范围进行圈定并监测其迁移过程是完全可行的。     

Alternative opportunities and migration: Evidence from Korea

The paper emphasizes the relevance of alternative opportunities in migration research and suggests a method for representing such opportunities in empirical studies. The suggested approach aggregates the different alternatives using weights which are distance-dependent such that the weights decline with larger distances. This method is applied to Korean migration data from which a migration-allocation model is estimated. The results support both the alternative opportunities hypothesis and the particular way for incorporating their influence as suggested in this paper.I am indebted to Bertrand Renaud for useful discussions and advice regarding data. Ms. Malathi Parthasarathy provided valuable assistance in computations. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank.     

The long- and short-run influences of housing prices on migration

A change in housing prices has a profound impact on households' housing equity and future moving decisions. While most previous studies focus on discussing the mobility lock-in effect due to housing price depreciation, revealing that there is a positive relationship between housing prices and migration, this study reexamines their relationship by using the panel cointegration method and city-level panel data for Taiwan during the 1994–2016 period. The empirical results reveal that migration and housing prices are cointegrated, and the influence of housing prices on migration is significantly positive in the long run. However, the influence of housing price changes on migration is not as significant as expected in the short run. To further examine their short-run relationships, we use quantile regression and the results show that the influence of housing price changes on migration is significantly negative below the 0.5 quantile, but it turns out to be significantly positive in the 0.9 quantile. The influence of housing price changes on migration is not significant between the 0.5 and 0.8 quantiles. We conclude that the influence of housing price changes on migration might be asymmetric in the short run.     

Spatial scale, return and onward migration, and the Long-Boertlein index of repeat migration

Abstract.  Long and Boertlein's (1990 ) measure of repeat migration can be used to infer the effects of repeat migration with data sets that did not specifically ask questions about such migration. While recent work by Rogers et al. (2003 ) evaluated how well this synthetic measure matched empirical fixed-interval measures, the role of spatial scale remains unclear, particularly since scale influences migration levels, spatial structure, and the representation of the primary, return, and onward migration components within the overall flow. Motivated by the implementation of the American Community Survey and the concurrent need to adjust data from one to five-year formats, and using the 1996 Canadian Public Use Microdata File and a custom tabulation from the 1996 Canadian census, the accuracy of the index is evaluated. In particular, the effects of spatial scale upon measures of primary, return and onward migration are described and evaluated, with the Long-Boertlein measure contrasted with fixed-interval measures of return and onward migration. Results show that the measure is sensitive to spatial scale.     

Migration in the urban-rural hierarchy of China: insights from the microdata of the 1987 National Survey

Microdata from the 1987 National Population Survey are used to analyze internal migration in China in the 1980s. The focus is on the impact of migration policies on rural-urban migration. "There are two main findings. First, although the migration policy resulted in a very low migration level and systematic distortions in migration schedules, its encouragement of downward migrations was very ineffective, whereas its control on rural-to-urban migrations was partially weakened by the strong upward aspirations of rural families awakened by recent economic reform. Consequently, net in-migration contributed substantially to the growth both of city and of town populations. Second, although the level of education had a strong positive effect on the migration propensities both of males and of females in general, it had a strong negative effect on the migration propensities of females at the time of marriage, a finding which suggests that the families at subsistence income level tended to marry their daughters to grooms in other communities in order to reduce the risk of familial income shortfalls."     

Accounting for migration in regional occupational employment projections

Occupational employment projections are one of the primary products produced by state labor market information agencies to assist with state and regional job training and worker assistance programs. In theory, the information from occupational employment forecasts should improve both interregional and intertemporal labor market efficiency through better matching between training efforts and job openings. Until recently, the projections methodology was predominantly a demand-requirements approach that failed to incorporate important labor supply effects and interstate/interregional dependencies. Recent research has focused on improving the labor supply specification. This paper reports on one such effort to evaluate the importance of interstate occupational migration and to develop methods to incorporate migration into the existing projections methodology. Initial results indicate that the total number of estimated job openings by occupation have to be revised significantly upwards when migration is taken into account.     

Does religious affiliation affect migration?

We test whether social networks at the origin, measured by religious affiliation, affect out‐migration. The basic idea is that a social capital loss is attached to the decision to out‐migrate, and said loss increases migration costs because benefits received from the local network at the origin disappear. To test this hypothesis, we estimated conditional and mixed logit models for the decision to out‐migrate. The results supported the hypothesis: members from religious organizations with strong intra‐community and weak intercommunity ties tended to out‐migrate less than others. This result was highly significant and robust to model specification and estimation methods.     

Family migration and employment: the importance of migration history and gender

"This article uses event history data to specify a model of employment returns to initial migration, onward migration, and return migration among newly married persons in the U.S. Husbands are more likely to be full-time employed than wives, and being a parent reduces the employment odds among married women. Employment returns to repeated migration differ by gender, with more husbands full-time employed after onward migration and more wives full-time employed after return migration events. We interpret these empirical findings in the context of family migration theory, segmented labor market theory, and gender-based responsibilities." Data are from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth from 1979 to 1991.     

Models for the analysis of interregional migration

"Asymmetric square tables, such as those arising from interregional migration, can be analysed by separating the skew-symmetric and symmetric components. A least-squares analysis of the skew-symmetric part can indicate the degree of complexity of model that is consistent with data and this can be combined with some suitable model for the symmetric part. The joint model may then be fitted by maximum likelihood based on suitable distributional assumptions. This approach is used for an analysis of Australian interstate migration for l960-l966 and indicates a model with independent in-migration and out-migration rates proportional to a symmetric function of population sizes and interstate distance."     

Reconciling and translating migration data collected over time intervals of differing widths

In this paper we describe and contrast the age and spatial structures of migration identified by data collected over one-year and five-year time intervals, by focusing, in particular, on the generation and distribution components of age- and origin-destination-specific migration flows. We explore the contributions of primary, return, and onward migration defined by fixed interval migration data, and we outline a crude translation procedure for transforming the one-year migration flow data into an estimated five-year counterpart. The data used in this study represent several migration periods drawn from recent U.S. and Canadian censuses and surveys. Differences between the structures exhibited by U.S. and Canadian migration patterns, collected over one-year and five-year migration time intervals, are carefully examined and contrasted. Versions of this paper were presented in February, 2002 at the annual meetings of the Western Regional Science Association in Monterey, California and in May, 2002 at the annual meetings of the Population Association of America in Atlanta, Georgia. The authors would like to thank Professor Frans Willekens at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands for his collaboration on earlier work that focused on migration spatial structure, of which this paper is a continuation. Also, our appreciation goes to the three anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions. This research is being supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (BCS-9986203).     

Modelling regional migration in China: estimation and decomposition

"In this paper I consider the issue of identifying the effects of spatial structure and the origin and destination attributes on interregional migration. A decomposition approach is developed based on migration models. The interprovincial migration data in China over the period 1985-1990 are used to estimate a gravity migration model, an extended gravity model, a Poisson gravity model, and a multilevel Poisson model, which are then used to decompose the various effects on migration in China."     

The internal dynamics of international migration systems

"In this paper I provide a conceptualization of international migration networks, which can be used to identify and integrate the internal components of migration systems, and formalize the relationships in an analytic model of the internal network dynamic. With the use of the operationalized model, and microlevel and macrolevel data for guestworkers in Germany during the period 1970 to 1989, we can empirically test the relative influence of internal network variables versus external forces on the attraction of immigrants over time. The empirical results suggest that--as the system matures--network variables have an increasing impact on the attraction of immigrants, while the impact of economic factors declines. The research is concluded with a series of simulations that further highlight the internal dynamic of international migration systems."     

Population forecasting with endogenous migration: an application to trans-Tasman migration

"This article focuses on forecasting migration between Australia and New Zealand (trans-Tasman migration), which is largely visa-free and therefore resembles internal migration. Net trans-Tasman migration is a major component of New Zealand population change and is embedded in this article in a Bayesian or unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model, which includes foreign and domestic economic variables. When time series of net migration are available, this approach provides a useful input into forecasting population growth in the short run in the absence of major policy changes. This conclusion applies equally to interregional migration and to unrestricted international migration between economically integrated nations."     

Independent and linked migration: Individual return of employment opportunity and household return of poverty status to African American interstate migration

The thrust of this study is to describe and contrast the determinants and outcomes of African-American interstate migration. We examine two types of migration outcomes – individual return to employment probability and household level return to poverty status. We investigate these motivations and outcomes based on a new typology of migration through the lens of household change that accompanies migration. We specify a pairwise two-stage probit model incorporating individual and state-level variables using Public Use Micro Sample data and various ecological data in the US. We show that independent migrants move to other states envisioning economic models of migration with migration as a derived response to opportunities, pressures, and constraints imposed by spatial inequalities in socioeconomic development. On the other hand, we demonstrate that linked migrants move to other states also for their economic need, but via kinship. In this case, the linked migrants' path does not follow the general pattern of economic circumstances. We show that household composition is an important factor that influences the destination choice for African Americans. While independent migrants are more concerned with diverse economic conditions at destinations, kinship, other ties and household structure at destinations are more significant factors for linked migrants. Received: June 2000/Accepted: June 2001     

Metropolitan migration and labor market changes by industry

The purpose of this paper is to analyze gross metropolitan migration of persons employed in selected two-digit industries. An empirically testable model was developed for migration, employment change, and earnings change and implemented using data from the Social Security Administration's ten percent Continuous Work History Sample. The results showed that a significant percentage of the migration flows can be explained by the variables in the model, and notes differences across industries. Specifically, differences in cyclic and structural economic variables are noted in terms of their importance across the specified industries. The public policy implications of these results are identified.Financial support from the Office of Policy and Planning, Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor is gratefully acknowledged. However, any opinions are solely those of the author. The author would like to thank Michael Greenwood, Vernon Renshaw, and Burman Skrabble for several helpful comments. In addition, I would like to thank David Cartwright, Bruce Levine, Esther Schroeder, and Jim Woods for their valuable assistance with the data base.     

PRIMARY, RETURN AND ONWARD MIGRATION IN THE U.S. AND CANADA: IS THERE A DIFFERENCE?

"Using microdata sources available from the U.S. Census Bureau and Statistics Canada, this paper contrasts primary, return and onward migration in the two countries. These classifications are based on information on the region (state or province) of birth and region of residence at the start and end of the census period. To study the propensities to make a primary, return or onward migration, rates are calculated...and compared with previous census periods. Analysis reveals that both countries have experienced similar temporal patterns, and that primary, return and onward migration patterns tend to be similar. Analysis using a nested logit model further reveals that return and onward migration in both countries can be similarly explained." Data are from the Public Use Micro Sample (PUMS) for the United States and the Public Use Micro File (PUMF) for Canada.