Spectral analysis of seasonality in tourism demand

This paper aims to analyse the seasonality in New Zealand tourism demand from Australia and the USA using spectral analysis. Tourism demand is divided into four different categories depending on the tourists’ visiting purposes as registered in the customs cards upon their arrivals in New Zealand. Spectral analysis based on the sample from January 1980 to December 2007 revealed that different travel purposes share similar cyclical components but their contributions to the total variation in tourism demand differ between travel purposes and markets. More importantly, the results show that analysing aggregated data is often not sufficient to reveal the underlying seasonal patterns of tourist arrivals and policy makers would benefit greatly by analysing disaggregated data rather than relying on the analysis of aggregated data alone.     

The Asia-Pacific regional perspective on bioinformatics

The Asia-Pacific region spans the Asian and Australasian continents as well as the Pacific-rim countries. As such, the seeds of bioinformatics in this region have been sown as early as 1989 in India, followed by Japan and Australia in 1991. While bioinformatics research, service, and education have reached laudable heights in these countries as well as in Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand and Russia, several other countries (Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines to name three) are making considerable progress. Following the success story of Japan, the status of bioinformatics in the Asia-Pacific region is presented.     

Optimizing mathematical parameters of Grey system theory: an empirical forecasting case of Vietnamese tourism

Accurately forecasting the demand for international and domestic tourism is a key goal for tourism industry leaders. The purpose of this study is to present more appropriate models for forecasting the demand for tourism in Vietnam. The authors apply GM(1,1), Verhulst, DGM(1,1) and DGM(2,1) to test which concise prediction models can improve the ability to predict the number of tourists visiting this country. In order to guarantee the accuracy of forecasting process, data cover in the period from 2005 through 2013 and are obtained from the official website of VNATR “Vietnam National Administration of Tourism” report. The MAPE, MSE, RMSE and MAD are four important criteria which are used to compare the various forecasting models results. Key findings indicate that the optimal value of GM(1,1), Verhulst, DGM(1,1) can enhance the forecasting results perfectly with minimum predicted errors. In the case of the tourism revenue, using the Verhulst model is evidently better than the others. For the number of international and domestic tourist prediction, the application of Verhulst and DGM(1,1) models is well done. For visitors coming from specific countries (i.e., China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and America), DGM(2,1) is very poor for predicting in this situation, whereas remaining three models GM(1,1), Verhulst, DGM(1,1) and DGM(2,1) perform excellently. The results also pointed out that the tourism demands in Vietnam are growing rapidly; thus, the governments must be well prepared for tourism industry and enhance relative fundamental construction for tourism markets.

     

Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand

In the tourism demand literature, much of the research focuses on income and price variables as demand determinants for travel. Nevertheless, the literature has neglected other possible indicators such as consumers’ perceptions of the future course of the economy, household debt and the number of hours worked in paid jobs. In fact, several studies found that these indicators could influence consumers in making decisions to travel. In this paper, we examine whether there are other indicators that can influence future Australian domestic tourism demand. The econometric model used in this study is a panel three-stage least squares (3SLS) model. Using the data on Australian domestic tourism demand, the empirical results reveal several points: first, it is found that the consumer sentiment index has significant impacts on VFR, but not on holiday tourism. Furthermore, the business confidence index has no influence on business tourism demand. The study also finds that an increase in household debt could encourage more Australians to travel domestically, indicating that Australians may consider increasing debt as their confidence to spend increases. Lastly, working hours have a statistically significant effect in the case of holiday tourism data.     

Supply Chain Operations Reference Model Version 5.0: A New Tool to Improve Supply Chain Efficiency and Achieve Best Practice

This paper discusses the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) Model, its development, and its use. The Model is the product of the Supply-Chain Council (SCC), an independent, not-for-profit, global corporation with membership open to all companies and organizations interested in applying and advancing the state-of-the-art in supply-chain management systems and practices.The SCOR Model is a business process reference model which provides a comprehensive toolset linking business processes to metrics, best practice and technology. The Model, primarily a tool for implementation, is being used successfully (as measured in Return on Investment) in North America, Europe, Latin America, Asia, and Australia/New Zealand. It is also being uses as a framework for undergraduate and graduate curriculum around the world.The SCC was organized in 1996 by Pittiglio Rabin Todd & McGrath (PRTM) and AMR Research, and initially included 69 voluntary member companies. Currently, the Council has over 750 members worldwide and has established international chapters in Europe, Japan, Korea, Latin America, Australia/New Zealand and Southeast Asia with Additional requests for regional chapters pending. The majority of the SCC's members are practitioners and represents a broad cross-section of industries, including manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. Equally important to the Council and the advancement of the SCOR-model are the technology suppliers and implementers, the academicians, and the government organizations that participate in Council activities and the development and maintenance of the Model.     

基于出行需求的城市车辆共享模式演化分析

车辆共享从资源分配的角度提高了汽车资源利用率.为了激励车辆共享,有关出行需求和出行者体验的研究势在必行.通过DBSCAN算法测量了城市内的交通需求聚集度,验证了车辆共享的可行性.确定了影响用户效用的关键因素,提出了基于Logit模型的数学模型以描述出行者体验和汽车资源利用率,预测出行者选择.同时,利用真实数据和调查结果,使测量和模型更加准确、真实.通过仿真实验,观测并分析了交通模式的演化过程及结果,发现城市出行需求量和交通需求聚集度是影响交通模式演化的主要因素.出行需求量需达到一定数值,演化才能达到稳定状态.城市出行交通需求聚集度越高,车辆共享的参与者则越多,其所获效用也越高.当出行需求量大于290,且交通需求聚集度大于0.9时,所有出行者都将选择车辆共享.最后,基于神州专车的出行数据,实验并观测了北京市交通模式的演化,发现若要在不加入经济因素或政策干预的情况下实施车辆共享,其交通模式将无法达到稳定状态.     

Estimation of a reduction in CO2 emissions by shifting commuters’ travel mode from the private car to public transport

A model for forecasting the amount of CO₂ emissions due to urban commuter travel was developed. The model consisted of three submodels: a commuters’ number forecasting model, a fuzzy commute travel mode choice model and a CO₂ emissions estimation. The model was tested using the real data of Osaka, Japan. Using this model, we also forecasted and analysed the efect of policy changes to shift commuters’ travel mode from private car to public transport in order to decrease the amount of CO₂ emissions.     

Paper: a study on the certification of the information security management systems

Current reliable strategies for information security are all chosen using incomplete information. With standards, problems resulting from incomplete information can be reduced, since with standards, we can decrease the choices and simplify the process for reliable supply and demand decision making. This paper is to study the certification of information security management systems based on specifications promulgated by the Bureau of Standards, Metrology and Inspection (BSMI), Ministry of Economic Affairs in accordance with international standards and their related organizations. And we suggest a certification requirement concept for five different levels of “Information and Communication Security Protection System” in our country, the Republic of China, Taiwan.     

基于O-D矩阵估计的路网交通流量仿真模型

为了将交通出行需求对路网交通流量的影响进行动态的量化分析,提出了一个基于O-D矩阵估计的路网交通流量仿真模型。利用O-D矩阵估计的重力模型计算方法、复杂网络理论和路段阻抗模型,构建了路网模型;在人们出行总是选择路段阻抗最小路径的假定下,设计了出行需求的路网流量映射算法;基于离散事件仿真,在PC系统上实现了路网流量仿真系统。仿真结果表明：该仿真系统可以根据各交通子区域出行需求的变化,精确模拟路网流量和交通状态的动态演进。     

Exploring students’ learning experience in an international online research seminar in the Synchronous Cyber Classroom

The development of computer-mediated communication enables teaching and learning to take place across geographical boundaries. An online synchronous learning environment with cyber face-to-face features affords students the sense of learning together online. This study reports a novel design of organizing a 16-week seminar for doctoral students across Canada, Italy, New Zealand, and Taiwan in the Synchronous Cyber Classroom, an online synchronous learning environment. Students’ learning experiences were explored from the perspective of students’ interactions with students, instructors, and the content, based on which the perception of being in a learning community was formed. This article reports how this international online research seminar was organized, how students’ learning experience was analyzed, and what we learned about students’ learning in this international online research seminar.     

基于模糊ARMAX模型的模糊建模

提出了一种利用MGS(modified Gram-Schmidt)算法建立模糊ARMAX模型的方法, 给出了基于MGS算法的模型结构和参数辨识的一体化方法. 利用MGS正交变换对通过GK模糊聚类的聚类结果进行变换, 确定对模型贡献大的规则, 删除对模型贡献小的规则, 同时对模型中的参数进行估计. 本文提出的方法能够实现模糊模型的结构和参数的优化. 仿真结果表明, 本文提出的方法能够建立非线性系统的模糊ARMAX模型.     

An erosion model for evaluating regional land-use scenarios

The conversion to pasture of indigenous forest on New Zealand hill country has led to increased mass-movement erosion and consequently increased sedimentation of waterways. Effective soil conservation requires a model that can evaluate erosion and sedimentation for different land-use scenarios. In this paper, we develop a model of mean sediment discharge related to mean erosion rates through a sediment delivery ratio. Mean erosion rate in a particular terrain (“erosion terrain”) is the product of (i) the square of mean annual rainfall with (ii) a cover factor and (iii) an erosion coefficient that depends on erosion terrain. Measurements of mean sediment discharge are used to estimate erosion coefficients for each erosion terrain. The model can be used to predict mean sediment discharge in response to land-cover/land-use scenarios. It is easy to execute and uses input data readily available in GIS layers in New Zealand. This makes it suitable for widespread management application, in contrast to physically based models which are presently only suitable for research catchments. We demonstrate the utility of the model for three different applications: evaluating land-use scenarios in the Motueka catchment; setting priorities for soil conservation in the Manawatu catchment; and determining national trends in agricultural erosion over a 30-year period. The general methodology is applicable to countries dominated by mountains and steep hills with high erosion rates.     

The suitability of a monetary union in East Asia: What does the cointegration approach tell?

The issue of whether or not to form a monetary union in East Asia remains a hot issue in the study of the East Asian economies. Most of the existing studies apply a framework focusing on the symmetric issue of the fundamental shocks and the extent of correlations by applying the Blanchard and Quah [O.J. Blanchard, D. Quah, The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances, American Economic Review 79 (1989) 655–673] structural vector autoregression (VAR) technique, which includes first-differenced variables in the model and examines only the bilateral relationships. However, the shock symmetry does not necessarily require the co-movements of the real output variables between the countries concerned. The present paper employs the Johansen [S. Johansen, Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12 (1988) 231–254] cointegration approach to check the long-run co-movements of real outputs among the East Asian countries, Japan and the United States to draw some implications about forming a monetary union in the region. The results suggest that some groups of Asian NIEs plus the United States will be potential candidates to form a monetary union. Mainland China is not suggested as a member country of a monetary union with any of the grouped economies. More interestingly, the ASEAN countries alone are not a feasible group to form a monetary union unless Japan is included, which has important implications for the role of Japan towards the formation of a regional monetary union.     

A digital rock density map of New Zealand

Digital geological maps of New Zealand (QMAP) are combined with 9256 samples with rock density measurements from the national rock catalogue PETLAB and supplementary geological sources to generate a first digital density model of New Zealand. This digital density model will be used to compile a new geoid model for New Zealand. The geological map GIS dataset contains 123 unique main rock types spread over more than 1800 mapping units. Through these main rock types, rock densities from measurements in the PETLAB database and other sources have been assigned to geological mapping units. A mean surface rock density of 2440 kg/m³ for New Zealand is obtained from the analysis of the derived digital density model. The lower North Island mean of 2336 kg/m³ reflects the predominance of relatively young, weakly consolidated sedimentary rock, tephra, and ignimbrite compared to the South Island’s 2514 kg/m³ mean where igneous intrusions and metamorphosed sedimentary rocks including schist and gneiss are more common. All of these values are significantly lower than the mean density of the upper continental crust that is commonly adopted in geological, geophysical, and geodetic applications (2670 kg/m³) and typically attributed to the crystalline and granitic rock formations. The lighter density has implications for the calculation of the geoid surface and gravimetric reductions through New Zealand.     

A neural approach for estimation of per capita electricity consumption due to age and income

Electricity consumption is influenced by number of adults and children and their relationship at household level. Household income also plays a critical role on expenditure on electricity. Accordingly, this article presents a joint probability model of electricity demand based on occupants’ age grades and household income levels. A bottom-up strategy is developed using a micro level database of 70 Australian households. A neural regression-generalization technique is devised to estimate electricity demand using back-propagation and cognitive mapping. The aggregated result is then validated against 2012 Australian national census. Accordingly, the model is improved based on a top-down review. The results show per capita electricity demand by adult and child at 0.408 kW (69 kWh/week) and 0.226 kW (38 kWh/week), respectively. The equivalent dollar values are $13.6/week and $7.6/week in 2012. At macro level, the model reveals per capita demand by all individuals at 0.324 kW (54.35 kWh/week) equivalent to dollar value of $10.87/week, across Australia. The results also show higher percentage of per capita demand for adults in high and medium income classes, and the otherwise for low income class. Ratio of child’s demand over adult’s demand is highest among the low income households, and lowset among the middle income households, while best balance between adult and child per capita demand belongs to the high income.

     

出租车数据的城市道路网路段通行时间估计方法

城市路段通行时间估计能够更好地运营和管理城市交通。针对包含起点-终点位置,行程时间和距离信息的GPS行程数据,提出了一种城市道路网短时通行时间的估计模型。首先将城市道路网按照交叉路口分解为多个路段,并基于k-最短路径搜索方法分析司机行进路线。然后针对每一个路段,提出了双车道通行时间多项式关联关系模型,既能提升道路网通行时间精细度,又能避免因训练数据不足导致的路网通行时间过拟合问题。最后以最小化行程期望时间和实际行程时间之间的均方误差为优化目标,拟合道路网通行时间。在纽约出租车数据集上的实验结果表明,所提模型及方法相对于传统单车道估计方法能够更准确地估计城市道路网路段的通行时间。     

The convergence of AML

In this work it is shown that provided a certain positive real condition is satisfied, the AML recursion for the parameters of a scalar ARMAX time series model converges with probability one without the need of monitoring. Previous proofs of convergence had effectively required that the recursion be monitored.     

A GA-weighted ANFIS model based on multiple stock market volatility causality for TAIEX forecasting

Stock market forecasting is important and interesting, because the successful prediction of stock prices may promise attractive benefits. The economy of Taiwan relies on international trade deeply, and the fluctuations of international stock markets will impact Taiwan stock market. For this reason, it is a practical way to use the fluctuations of other stock markets as forecasting factors for forecasting the Taiwan stock market. In this paper, the proposed model uses the fluctuations of other national stock markets as forecasting factors and employs a genetic algorithm (GA) to refine the weights of rules joining in an ANFIS model to forecast the Taiwan stock index. To evaluate the forecasting performances, the proposed model is compared with four different models: Chen's model, Yu's model, Huarng's model, and the ANFIS model. The results indicate that the proposed model is superior to the listing methods in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE).     

Network-based Accessibility Measures for Vulnerability Analysis of Degradable Transportation Networks

Accessibility is a fundamental concept in transportation analysis and urban planning. Typically, accessibility refers to the ‘ease’ of reaching opportunities for activities and services and can be used to assess the performance of a transportation and urban system. In this paper, we present network-based accessibility measures for assessing vulnerability of degradable transportation networks. The network-based accessibility measures consider the consequence of one or more link failures in terms of network travel time or generalized travel cost increase as well as the behavioral responses of users due to the failure in the network. To model different dimensions of travel behavioral responses, a combined travel demand model is adopted to estimate the long-term equilibrium network condition due to network disruptions. Numerical examples are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed vulnerability measures for assessing degradable transportation networks. The results indicate that the accessibility measures derived from the combined travel demand model are capable of measuring the consequences of both demand and supply changes in the network and have the flexibility to reflect the effects of different travel choice dimensions on the network vulnerability.     

Time-varying parametric system multiresolution identification by wavelets

In this paper, the problem of time-varying parametric system identification by wavelets is discussed. Employing wavelet operator matrix representation, we propose a new multiresolution least squares (MLS) algorithm for time-varying AR (ARX) system identification and a multiresolution least mean squares (MLMS) algorithm for the refinement of parameter estimation. These techniques can achieve the optimal tradeoff between the over-fitted solution and the poorly represented identification. The main features of time-varying model parameters are extracted in a multiresolution way, which can be used to represent the smooth trends as well as track the rapidly changing components of time-varying parameters simultaneously and adaptively. Further, a noisy time-varying AR (ARX) model can also be identified by combining the total least squares algorithm with the MLS algorithm. Based on the proposed AR (ARX) model parameter estimation algorithm, a novel identification scheme for time-varying ARMA (ARMAX) system is presented. A higher-order time-varying AR (ARX) model is used to approximate the time-varying ARMA (ARMAX) system and thus obtain an initial parameter estimation. Then an iterative algorithm is applied to obtain the consistent and efficient estimates of the ARMA (ARMAX) system parameters. This ARMA (ARMAX) identification algorithm requires linear operations only and thus greatly saves the computational load. In order to determine the time-varying model order, some modified AIC and MDL criterions are developed based on the proposed wavelet identification schemes. Simulation results verify that our methods can track the rapidly changing of time-varying system parameters and attain the best balance between parsimonious modelling and accurate identification.