Impact of sensitivity information on the prediction of project's duration using earned schedule method

Recently, the prediction of project duration has been investigated in earned value management (EVM) using three earned value methods, planed value (PVM), earned duration (EDM) and earned schedule (ESM). The investigation has shown that ESM method outperforms on average the other two methods and fails in case of wrong warning coming from non-critical activities which suffer from delays and/or ahead of schedule. The objective of this paper is twofold: first, we study the impact of the activities' sensitivity information on the forecasting accuracy of the ESM method. Second, we test the claim that in normal conditions the project performance indicator provided by ESM at higher work breakdown structure is reliable. More precisely, activity based sensitivity measures are used as weighing parameters of the activities to improve the schedule performance of a project by removing or decreasing the negative effect of wrong warning of the non-critical activities. The computational results of a simulation study on a big benchmark projects reveal that the sensitivity information are capable of improving the forecasting accuracy of the ESM method.     

基于改进挣值方法的项目完工时间、成本预测

挣值管理（EVM）方法的主要功能是项目执行绩效评价和项目完工趋势预测,该方法在使用时未考虑非关键路线工序对项目预测的影响,此外成本绩效的计算以假定工期不变为前提,上述情况容易造成绩效指标不能准确反映项目进展问题。同时,由于该方法没有考虑工序时间和成本的分布特征,预测项目完工时间和成本的结果为单一的点估计值,准确性无法预估。在构建项目工序的成本/进度经验分布的基础上,对传统 EVM 指标进行了改进,提出基于蒙特卡洛仿真模拟预测项目完工时间和成本的区间及概率,为项目完工风险估计提供可靠依据。     

基于灰色 Verhulst 和EVM 模型的项目进度—成本绩效预测研究

传统挣值管理以进度和成本绩效指数为基础进行完工成本预测,在项目实施的早期其预测值与实际数据会存在较大偏差。因此,项目实施的早期,项目管理团队应侧重对进度和成本绩效趋势进行短期预测。在介绍挣值管理和灰色Verhulst 模型的基础上,提出采用Verhulst 模型对项目的实际成本和挣值进行预测,并计算进度和成本偏差,通过比较借此发现进度和成本绩效的发展趋势。最后结合具体案例详细介绍了建立灰色Verhulst 模型以及利用此模型进行预测的步骤。案例表明该方法是可行和有效的。     

EDM: Earned Duration Management,a new approach to schedule performance management and measurement

The concept of schedule monitoring and control as one of the most important functions of project and program management has not been fully exploited. One possible explanation could be the dominance of the Earned Value Management System (EVMS, also known as EVM). EVM was originally developed as a cost management and control tool which was extended to track the schedule as well. EVM and its derivatives (e.g. Earned Schedule) use cost as a proxy to measure schedule performance to control the duration of the project. While there is a correlation between schedule, cost, quality, and scope of a project, using cost to control duration has proven to be misleading. In contrast to Earned Value and Earned Schedule, the authors have developed the Earned Duration Management (EDM) in which they have decoupled schedule and cost performance measures and developed a number of indices to measure progress and performance of schedule and cost, as well as the efficacy and efficiency of the plan at any level of the project. These new indices are easy to understand, have wider applications, and can be used by contractors, clients and the scheduling offices to assess and measure schedule performance. The newly developed duration performance measures are all schedule-based and can be used for forecasting the finish date of the project.     

Measuring the efficiency of project control using fictitious and empirical project data

Dynamic scheduling refers to the integration of three important phases in the life cycle of a project: baseline scheduling, schedule risk analysis and project control. In this paper, the efficiency of controlling a project is measured and evaluated using a Monte-Carlo simulation study on fictitious and empirical project data. In the study, the construction of a project baseline schedule acts as a point-of-reference for the schedule risk analysis and project control phases. The sensitivity information obtained by the schedule risk analyses (SRA) and the earned value management (EVM) information obtained during project control serve as early warning control parameters that trigger corrective actions to bring projects back on track in case of problems. The focus in this paper lies on the time performance of a project, and not on the prediction and controlling of the project costs.     

A model to control environmental performance of project execution process based on greenhouse gas emissions using earned value management

In response to recent climate change, which is believed to be attributed to the release of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, many countries are placing CO2 abatement programs such as carbon tax and cap-and-trade. Projects do have a significant share in GHGs and therefore their environmental performance, like their schedule and cost performance, should be monitored and controlled. Although many large projects would pass an environmental assessment in the project evaluation phase, the issue of environmental performance monitoring during the project execution phase has not been addressed in project management methodologies. The objective of this paper is to develop a model to estimate project GHG emissions, and to measure project GHG performance using the developed metrics, which can be used at any point in time over the life of a project. A comprehensive study is conducted to collect information on GHG emission factors of various project activity data (such as material use, energy and fuel consumption, transportation, etc.), and a user form interface is developed to calculate the total GHG of an activity. Also, a breakdown structure is proposed which supports managing all the project GHG accounts. The monitoring and control model is formulated based on the logic used in earned value management (EVM) methodology. The proposed model is then implemented to a work package of a real construction project. The results present the project initial GHG plan and show that the model is able to calculate project GHG variance by the reporting date and predict project final GHG based on a project GHG performance index. The method presented in this paper is general and can be applied to any type of projects in an organization that aims to reduce its carbon footprint. The same structure can be applied to monitor and control any other environmental impact associated with project execution process.     

改进因素分析法在挣值管理中的应用研究

通过将改进后的因素分析法引入到挣值管理的成本偏差分析中,提高传统挣值法的成本偏差分析能力。总结了传统因素分析法的原理;为了消除传统因素分析法在替代顺序变化时引起的成本差异值偏差,提出了各因素共同成本差异值的分配方法,从而找到了各个因素变动的实质性原因。在对因素分析法的实质进行分析的基础上,将其引入挣值管理的成本偏差分析中,细化偏差原因分析,从而确定各个因素的变化对成本偏差的影响程度。并通过一个算例分析,验证改进后的因素分析法在挣值管理中应用的有效性。     

Monitoring project duration and cost in a construction project by applying statistical quality control charts

The earned value is a leading technique in monitoring and analyzing project performance and project progress. Although, it allows exact measurement of project progress, and can uncover any time and cost deviations from the plan, its capability in reporting accepted level of deviation is not well studied. This study presented an approach to overcome this limitation by applying statistical quality control charts to monitor earned value indices. For this purpose, project time and cost performance indices of a real construction project were monitored regularly on individual control charts. The results were quite promising, and not only competed well against traditional approaches, but also enhanced team's knowledge of project performance. At the end, it was concluded that the proposed approach improves substantially the project controlling scheme and enhances the capability of earned value technique.     

改进挣值管理方法的系统性研究

为了使传统挣值法对工程项目的实施情况可进行更为详尽的偏差分析,论文总结了挣值管理方法在我国项目管理领域中获得的成果、存在的问题及理论应用前提。在对挣值(EV)的概念进行严格定义的基础上,重新阐释了传统挣值法基本参数(PV、EV、AC)和偏差指标(SV、CV)的具体含义。按照将成本偏差原因分析细化的逻辑思路,提出了挣值管理的新基本参数和偏差分析指标,从而完善了传统挣值法的偏差分析与预测能力。     

A fuzzy approach for the earned value management

The earned value technique is a crucial technique in analyzing and controlling the performance of a project which allows a more accurate measurement of both the performance and the progress of a project. This paper presents a new fuzzy-based earned value model with the advantage of developing and analyzing the earned value indices, and the time and the cost estimates at completion under uncertainty. As the uncertainty is inherent in real-life activities, the developed model is very useful in evaluating the progress of a project where uncertainty arises. A small example illustrates how the new model can be implemented in reality.     

A fuzzy approach for the earned value management

The Earned Value technique is a crucial technique in analyzing and controlling the performance of a project which allows a more accurate measurement of both the performance and the progress of a project. This paper presents a new fuzzy-based earned value model with the advantage of developing and analyzing the earned value indices, and the time and the cost estimates at completion under uncertainty. As the uncertainty is inherent in real-life activities, the developed model is very useful in evaluating the progress of a project where uncertainty arises. A small example illustrates how the new model can be implemented in reality.     

论挣值法在项目进度管理中的应用

项目的进度管理是项目管理的三大目标之一,进度、投资、质量三者互相约束,相辅相成。挣值法是一种先进的进度测量技术,其目的就是比较项目实际与计划的差异,关注的是计划中的各个项目任务,在内容、时间、质量、成本等方面与计划的差异情况,然后根据这些差异,可以对项目中剩余的任务进行预测和调整。本文结合项目管理的实际经验讨论挣值法在项目管理中的应用。     

Corrigendum to “A model to control environmental performance of project execution process based on greenhouse gas emissions using earned value management” [Int. J. Proj. Manag. 36 (3) (April 2018) 397-413]

Abstract was revised as follows:In response to recent climate change, which is believed to be attributed to the release of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, many countries are placing CO₂ abatement programs such as carbon tax and cap-and-trade. Projects do have a significant share in GHGs and therefore their environmental performance, like their schedule and cost performance, should be monitored and controlled. Although many large projects would pass an environmental assessment in the project evaluation phase, the issue of environmental performance monitoring during the project execution phase has not been addressed in project management methodologies. The objective of this paper is to develop a model to estimate project GHG emissions, and to measure project GHG performance using the developed metrics, which can be used at any point in time over the life of a project. A comprehensive study is conducted to collect information on GHG emission factors of various project activity data (such as material use, energy and fuel consumption, transportation, etc.), and a user form interface is developed to calculate the total GHG of an activity. Also, a breakdown structure is proposed which supports managing all the project GHG accounts. The monitoring and control model is formulated based on the logic used in earned value management (EVM) methodology. The proposed model is then implemented to a work package of a real construction project. The results present the project initial GHG plan and show that the model is able to calculate project GHG variance by the reporting date and predict project final GHG based on a project GHG performance index. The method presented in this paper is general and can be applied to any type of projects in an organization that aims to reduce its carbon footprint. The same structure can be applied to monitor and control any other environmental impact associated with project execution process.     

An extension of the EVM analysis for project monitoring: The Cost Control Index and the Schedule Control Index

In this paper we propose two new metrics that combine Earned Value Management (EVM) and Project Risk Management for project controlling and monitoring. We compare EVM cost and schedule variances with the deviation the project should have under the risk analysis expected conditions.These two indexes allow project managers to analyse whether the project over-runs are within expected variability or there are structural and systemic changes over the project life cycle. The new monitoring indexes we present are the Cost Control Index and the Schedule Control Index.     

基于改进挣值法的工程项目进度优化研究

"挣值法"作为一种项目管理技术由于自身的缺陷与不足不能直接应用于工程项目的进度优化,需要进行改进与拓展。针对项目进度优化的具体问题,对"挣值法"进行了引入关键线路和扰动参数的改进与拓展,同时提出了运用改进后"挣值法"进行工期预测的计算公式与工期扰动参数估算公式。改进后的"挣值法"可以理清项目进度偏差的来源与进一步提高对项目完工工期预测的准确度,为后续项目进度优化过程中制定措施修正进度偏差与适当压缩工期提供参考。研究目的在于提高"挣值法"应用于工程项目进度优化的适用度。最后用曲线图对引入关键线路法、扰动参数后改进的挣值管理模型进行了阐释说明,并给出了一个具体使用改进后"挣值法"的案例。     

项目管理中赢得值原理的研究

赢得值原理作为工程项目中进度与成本综合管理,对施工项目管理起着不可忽视的作用.但目前赢得值原理中的基本参数和指标还需进一步完善,文章将ACWP参数做了部分改进,对控制指标进行了拓展,将材料的消耗量与材料价格对工程项目费用的影响更确切地表现出来,为针对施工各阶段情况做出准确评估和控制打下基础.     

Visualized EVM system for assessing project performance

This work presents a Web-based visualized architecture, design, and implementation for assessing project performance by integrating earned value (EV) analysis and database management system (DBMS). Particularly, a novel probabilistic multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) process is applied to identify the optimal software for developing the Web-based DBMS based on interviews with domain experts and professional engineers. EV analysis serves as a control technique that helps project managers (PMs) monitor cost overruns and project delays. Leveraging modern technology, Web service enables PMs to access project information without constraints of time or place. The developed management information system (MIS) provides an objective measure of completed work that PMs can use to monitor project progress and assess project achievements by converting project data into manageable information clusters. Additionally, the system offers construction personnel a simple and flexible method of tracking, modifying, and updating cost and time-based project data.     

A new approach for project control under uncertainty. Going back to the basics

In this paper we propose a new methodology for project control under uncertainty. In particular, we integrate Earned Value Methodology (EVM) with project risk analysis. The methodology helps project managers to know whether the project deviations from planned values are within the “expected” deviations derived from activity planned variability. Although the methodology is new and innovative, we only go back to the fundamentals of project simulation to generate the “universe” of possible projects, according to the assumed variability of project activities. Then we organize and gather the information in order to make the data coherent with EVM. We explain the steps to implement the methodology and we show three case studies. The methodology makes explicit that the schedule and budget resulting from traditional methods like PERT are statistically very optimistic.     

Turner's five-functions of project-based management and situational leadership in IT services projects

This paper reports on the research conducted in one of the divisions of Europe's largest IT consultancy. This study aims to investigate (1) the critical elements of managing IT services projects by using Turner's (Handbook of project–based management, 2nd ed, England, McGraw–Hill Publishing, 1999) five-functions model to examine the relationships between project definition and scope, project organisation and the triangle of critical project outcomes and (2) if the project leader's orientation is related to his situational perception of project control. Although the survey has found only partial support for the proposed relationships, it has also identified the importance of personal attributes and contingent experiences on the leader's perception of project success. More significantly, the evidence that time and quality, rather than time and cost, are the two most critical project objectives reflects the industry shift of concern from being contractors to solution-partners.