Estimation of place-to-place migration flows from net migration totals: a minimum information approach

"A truism in demography has been that net migration may be derived from information on gross place-to-place flows, but that gross place-to-place flows cannot be inferred back from information on the net population movements in a system. Some recent work on maximum entropy and minimum information models, however, suggests a possible means for estimating just such as set of place-to-place flows. The net migration constrained model presented here could prove particularly useful for updating detailed migration matrices on the basis of current net migration estimates, and could even provide some clues as to the nature of the still poorly understood relationship between gross and net migration. Performance of the model is demonstrated using flow matrices from the 1960 and 1970 U.S. Censuses.     

A model of urbanization with nonlinear migration flows

"This paper seeks an appropriate specification of the migration exchange between rural and urban areas so that the implied evolution of the degree of urbanization agrees with its commonly observed S-shape. After demonstrating that the gross migration flows between rural and urban areas should be specified as nonlinear functions of the population in the origin sector, the paper introduces a model in which such flows are represented by gravity-type functional forms....[The model] can be used to give insights into the time paths of three basic urbanization variables: the urban-rural growth rate differential, the rural net outmigration rate, and the urban net immigration rate. All take on a zero value at the two extremes of the urbanization process and evolve in between according to a bell-shaped curve. These findings are illustrated by applying the model to data from the United States for the period 1790-1980."     

Recent trends in migration between core and peripheral regions in developed and advanced developing countries

"The main finding of this article is that net internal migration to the core regions in the countries of the developed world, which subsided in the 1970s, increased in the 1980s, although not to the level of the 1960s. In some countries of northwest Europe there is a balance now in net flows between core and periphery. In the countries of the periphery of Europe and Japan net internal migration to the core regions increased slightly in the 1980s. Net migration flows to the periphery have completely reversed in Canada, and net flows out of the core regions of the United States have been significantly reduced. In eastern Europe, however, there is still moderate net migration to the core regions without any interruption as seen in western Europe, North America, and Japan. In South Korea and Taiwan rates of net migration to the core regions have been reduced from their high levels of the 1970s, but they are still quite high and show no clear sign of a break from the past."     

Regional adjustment and migration flows in Canada, 1971 to 1981

The primary purpose of this paper is to consider and test for various interlinkages between migration flows, and also between migration and employment change. Three types of migration flows are distinguished: domestic in-migration and outmigration, and net international migration. The three migration equations are embedded in a model of regional adjustment that also includes regional employment and wage changes as endogenous variables. The data base utilizes Canadian census statistics for 1971 and 1981 in a cross-section analysis with 183 regions represented by counties, or theri equavalents. The empirical performance of the various interlinkages is broadly in line with expectations, but the results raise some important questions about interpretation.     

Interregional labour migration and real wage disparities: Evidence from Japan

This paper empirically tests the relationships between interregional labour migration and regional real wages based on a multi-region economic geography model, which describes bilateral migration flows. In particular, this paper highlights real wage disparities in the migration analysis. Our empirical methodology contains two steps. First, we structurally estimate a gravity model using manufacturing workers’ migration flows across the 47 Japanese prefectures. Second, using the estimates of the structural parameters, we examine the impact of the real wage on the net migration rate. We find that migrants respond to real wage disparities, rather than to nominal wage disparities.     

Functional forms and the relevance of contiguous migration in the study of migration and employment growth

Previous studies on interstate migration have dealt with total migration without decomposing it into contiguous and noncontiguous migration flows. Since migration over borders of contiguous states may merely reflect changes in residence without changes in economic activities, the use of total migration data might reduce the reliability of empirical results. In this study, a simultaneous-equation model containing two equations, one for migration and the other for employment growth, has been specified in a general form and estimated by the 2SLS method for total, contiguous and noncontiguous migration flows. Results obtained from the use of 1970 Census data show that noncontiguous migration behaves significantly different from contiguous migration, and that noncontiguous migration, rather than total migration, should be used for the study of factors affecting interstate migration. Results also indicate that the log-linear functional form commonly used in empirical studies cannot be accepted statistically.     

Migration and the quasi-labor market in Russia

"This paper explores the twin concepts of labor demand and labor mobility during the Soviet and post-Soviet periods. The study uses a detailed data set on labor stock, industrial labor demand, and labor flows for the 1980s in the Yaroslavl' Oblast, and data on migration and regional labor markets for all Russian regions in the 1990s. Contextual features, such as the social contract, full employment, methods of labor allocation, and a generally low rate of geographic mobility, distinguish the centrally planned quasi-labor market from the labor market in capitalist democracies. The findings suggest that net in-migration induces employment change in the current period rather than in a future period. The job creation effects appear concurrent with migration during the Soviet period. In the post-Soviet period, migration and employment relationships are not predictable based on the same relationships during the Soviet period."     

An econometric model for forecasting regional population growth

"An econometric model for forecasting net migration and natural increase is proposed and then estimated using time-series data for Texas. The model is simulated five years out-of-sample and found to be quite accurate in forecasting future population growth. It outperforms simpler prediction methods, thus indicating that explicit modeling of net migration and natural increase is superior to modeling only total population."     

Interregional gross migration and structural changes in local industries

"In this paper the impacts of structural changes in local industries on interregional gross migration in Japan for 1974-85 are empirically examined. Structural changes in local industries, which are represented by a simple index of local employment growth dispersion across sectors, induce interregional migration, as well as intraregional migration. The estimation results with pooled data support this hypothesis. The impacts of structural changes in local industries are different across gross migration flows (rural-urban, urban-rural, urban-urban, and rural-rural migration), as are the impacts of other determinants of migration such as earnings differentials, aggregate employment growth, national unemployment, distance, and age structure."     

Metropolitan migration and labor market changes by industry

The purpose of this paper is to analyze gross metropolitan migration of persons employed in selected two-digit industries. An empirically testable model was developed for migration, employment change, and earnings change and implemented using data from the Social Security Administration's ten percent Continuous Work History Sample. The results showed that a significant percentage of the migration flows can be explained by the variables in the model, and notes differences across industries. Specifically, differences in cyclic and structural economic variables are noted in terms of their importance across the specified industries. The public policy implications of these results are identified.Financial support from the Office of Policy and Planning, Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor is gratefully acknowledged. However, any opinions are solely those of the author. The author would like to thank Michael Greenwood, Vernon Renshaw, and Burman Skrabble for several helpful comments. In addition, I would like to thank David Cartwright, Bruce Levine, Esther Schroeder, and Jim Woods for their valuable assistance with the data base.     

Labor migration amongst hierarchically competing and intervening origins and destinations

"A spatial interaction methodology is developed for modeling flows in a hierarchical system. A competing and intervening destinations framework is employed to model and predict U.S. state-to-state labor migration. This analysis is used to assess the importance of geographic variables in explaining variations in regional labor flows. Empirical findings suggest that U.S. labor migration is largely explained by...size, distance, locational accessibility, and intervening opportunities in a spatial hierarchy. It is also suggested that lagged migration or migrant stock is a product of the combined effect of these forces."     

Explaining inter‐provincial migration in China

China's growth has led to massive flows of migrants. To analyse the determinants of inter‐provincial migration hypotheses from the classical migration theory, the new economic geography, gravity approach, and the new economics of labour migration have been derived. All traditional assumptions could be confirmed. Inter‐provincial differentials of urban poverty and differentials in inequality do matter. Inequality is regarded as opportunity and motivation to move. The analysis of push‐pull factors of gross migration suggests that pull factors are average wages, unemployment rates, urbanization and income disparity. Urban poverty can be regarded as a counter‐pull factor. Rural poverty and average wage are push factors.     

On the contribution of out-migration to changes in net migration: A time series confirmation of Beale's cross-sectional results

Recent cross-sectional studies of population migration patterns have consistently failed to find any relationship between the economic conditions prevalent in an area and the propensity of its inhabitants to emigrate. Changes in the rate of out-migration apparently occur only slowly as the age composition and mobility history of the population change. Thus, in the short run, changes in out-migration are small and contribute little to changes in net migration. This article tests this model of the migration process by making a time series analysis of gross and net migration between Japanese prefectures. We find that, among rural areas, changes in out-migration are a consistently significant component of changes in net migration. If changes in net migration reflect changes in economic conditions in these areas, then one can only conclude that the latter do have an effect on out-migration rates, an effect which is missed by cross-sectional studies. Beale's graphical analysis, which is also cross-sectional, is a notable exception and would have predicted our results.This study was supported in part by a grant from the National Science Foundation.     

Population redistribution towards core areas of less developed countries, 1950-1980

"This paper presents estimates of the rate of population redistribution to the core areas of 44 developing countries over the period 1950-80. Particular attention is given to the period 1970-80, a time during which the core areas of developed countries experienced substantial declines in their rates of net inmigration. The principal finding is that the core areas of most developing countries are still experiencing high and, in a number of cases, increasing rates of net inmigration." The author contends that "this finding confirms the developmental model of spatial concentration and dispersal and should lay to rest other explanations of deconcentration, including arguments that focus on diseconomies of absolute size in the core area or on fluctuations in the aggregate economy." The difference between the population growth rates of entire nations and of core areas is used as a measure of interregional migration. Data for the 44 countries and information on the data sources are included in appendixes.     

中国建筑业投入产出效率分析:1991-2003

本文应用非参数计量经济学的数据包络评价模型,以从业人员总数、固定资产净值、能源消耗总量和总产值为评价指标,对中国建筑业1991年～2003年的投入产出整体效率及各投入要素效率进行了测算和分析。结果显示:中国建筑业的整体投入产出效率在1991～1993年间取得了显著的进步,并在随后的10年间均保持较高的效率值,但无明显提高。     

An exploratory analysis of the interactions between the determinants of migratory flows

More than often, studies explaining migration causes centre on economic explanations and minimize other factors' explanatory power. This research aims at creating a comprehensive model of migration determinants taking into account four dimensions: economic, social, cultural, and digital. A path model consisting of these dimensions was created and estimated through partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM). The PLS-path model was applied to Romanian migration flows to 21 EU member states during 2007–2017. The findings indicate that social and technological developments have significant impacts on migration flows and that digital distance has a full mediation effect on the relationship between cultural distance and migration flows.     

Does climate matter? An empirical study of interregional migration in China

This study focuses on the role of local climate conditions in spurring interregional migration in China over the period 2000 to 2010. We developed a robust empirical approach based on a correlated random effects model and a prefecture-level panel dataset which allows us to account for both within province migration flows and prefecture-specific characteristics. Empirical results reveal that climate conditions are important determinants of migration in China. Specifically, prefectures with warmer winter, cooler summer, and more available sunshine are more attractive to migrants. Economic factors such as income level and employment opportunities are also important drivers of population growth.     

Total project cost: a simplified model for decision makers

A simplified model for total project cost is developed in this paper to meet the numerous requests from decision makers for a model that can be used to estimate the total project cost from the estimated cash flows and, more importantly, to check the accuracy of the project cost estimates in feasibility studies that require prudent decisions. It begins with a base cost estimate in constant dollars and discrete cash flows with discrete inflation rates as practised by the construction industry. The discrete inflation rates are used to estimate the current dollar costs of the project. The effects of inflation are estimated as escalation during construction. Using the future value concept, interest during construction is estimated, in a simplified approach, to estimate the total project cost. Data from an actual feasibility study is used to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the simplified model. The model is extended to treat discrete cash flows with continuous inflation rates.