不确定遗传神经网络在滑坡危险性预测中的研究与应用

针对滑坡危险性预测中降雨等不确定因素难以获取,以及有效处理和标准反向传播算法存在局部极小值和训练速度慢等问题,为提高滑坡危险性的预测精度,提出一种不确定遗传神经网络滑坡预测方法。基于改进遗传算法和反向传播神经网络分类算法,结合滑坡灾害预测相关理论,考虑到与滑坡灾害密切相关的降雨等不确定因素,给出不确定数据分离度的概念,阐述不确定属性数据的处理方法,构建不确定遗传神经网络,建立滑坡灾害预测模型,以延安宝塔区为例进行验证。实验结果显示,该方法的有效精度和总体精度分别为92.1%和86.7%,验证了不确定遗传神经网络算法在滑坡灾害预测中的可行性。     

不确定NNSB-OPTICS聚类算法在滑坡危险性预测中的研究与应用

针对滑坡危险性预测中降雨等不确定因素不能有效刻画及处理和现有的OPTICS-PLUS聚类算法需要设置密度阈值、时间复杂度高等问题进行了研究,为了提高滑坡危险性预测准确率,提出一种不确定NNSB-OPTICS聚类算法并应用于滑坡预测中。首先对OPTICS-PLUS算法扩张策略进行优化,避免了人工设置密度阈值,提高了算法效率;然后根据降雨量数据的分布特征,综合EW型距离公式和云模型理论,提出EC型距离公式,有效处理不确定数据降雨量;最后将不确定NNSB-OPTICS聚类算法应用于延安市宝塔区滑坡危险性预测中,建立滑坡危险性预测模型,滑坡预测精度达到89.7%。实验结果表明,该方法能够有效提高滑坡危险性预测精度,具有较高可行性。     

不确定GM-CFSFDP聚类算法在滑坡危险性预测中的应用

针对滑坡危险性预测中降雨等不确定诱发因素难以有效处理,CFSFDP算法需要人工尝试设置密度阈值以及对大规模数据集无法进行准确聚类等问题,为了提高滑坡危险性预测准确度,提出一种基于网格与类合并的不确定CFSFDP （简称不确定GM-CFSFDP）聚类算法.该算法首先引入不确定数据处理方法,设计了E-ML距离公式,有效刻画降雨不确定因素;其次通过网格划分的思想把大规模数据集划分到多个网格空间中,实现大规模数据有效编码;计算网格平均密度,建立网格密度阈值分布模型,动态获得网格密度阈值;最后利用层次聚类思想对关联性较高的类进行合并,构建不确定GM-CFSFDP算法模型,在延安宝塔区进行滑坡实例验证.实验结果表明不确定GM-CFSFDP聚类算法获得较高的预测精度,从而验证了该算法在滑坡危险性预测中的可行性和先进性.     

不确定贝叶斯算法在滑坡危险性预测的应用

为了解决传统的贝叶斯分类技术在构建滑坡危险性分类和预测的模型的过程中难以有效地获取预测模型所需的参数及滑坡诱发因素定量刻画技术难题等问题,引入不确定贝叶斯算法,将不确定数据的可能世界模型与朴素贝叶斯分类模型结合起来,构建了不确定贝叶斯分类模型,从而有效刻画降雨量这一属性级不确定的属性,达到提高滑坡危险性预测精度的目的。通过实例验证了运用该方法进行滑坡危险评价的可行性和高效性。     

不确定近似骨架蚁群聚类算法在滑坡危险性预测中的研究与应用

受不确定因素降雨难以准确处理的制约以及蚁群聚类算法在搜索空间容易陷入局部最优解和搜索速度慢的特征影响,为了提高滑坡危险性预测的精度,提出一种不确定近似骨架蚁群聚类算法。首先采用Gauss点概率模型来描述不确定数据,对不确定数据进行相似性度量;其次引入信息素重分配和自适应动态变量实现蚁群聚类算法局部信息素和全局信息素更新,提高蚁群聚类算法搜索速度,加载遗传算法避免蚁群聚类算法过早陷入局部最优;最后结合近似骨架理论,构建不确定近似骨架蚁群聚类算法模型,缩减迭代次数,快速搜索出聚类结果。在UCI真实数据集和延安宝塔区滑坡实验数据集上的实验结果显示,不确定近似骨架蚁群聚类 算法具有较高的聚类质量,预测精度达到93.3%,验证了算法在滑坡危险性预测中的可行性。     

不确定PAHT聚类算法在滑坡危险性预测上的应用

针对滑坡预测聚类研究中由于难以确定传统聚类算法需要预先设置的簇个数和无法精准衡量不确定因素降雨量导致预测效果欠佳的问题,提出一种新的聚类算法—不确定PAHT（partition algorithm on the hierarchical thinking）算法,该算法引入一种不确定数据模型——M-D距离,其有效刻画了不确定的雨量数据;并结合层次聚类思想,通过找出最佳阙值p*自动确定k值。以延安宝塔区为实例进行对比实验,实验结果验证了不确定M-D距离和PAHT算法的有效性及不确定PAHT算法在滑坡危险性预测上的可行性。     

基于粗糙集理论与CAIM准则的C4.5改进算法

C4.5算法是一种非常有影响力的决策树生成算法,但该方法生成的决策树分类精度不高,分支较多,规模较大.针对C4.5算法存在的上述问题,本文提出了一种基于粗糙集理论与CAIM准则的C4.5改进算法.该算法采用基于CAIM准则的离散化方法对连续属性进行处理,使离散化过程中的信息丢失程度降低,提高分类精度.对离散化后的样本用基于粗糙集理论的属性约简方法进行属性约简,剔除冗余属性,减小生成的决策树规模.通过实验验证,该算法可以有效提高C4.5算法生成的决策树分类精度,降低决策树的规模.     

基于概率指数模型的区域滑坡危险性评价

影响滑坡的因子很多,区域滑坡危险性因子的确定是治理滑坡的关键。以马来西亚金马仑高原作为研究区,选取岩性、地形、地貌、道路、土地利用等环境因子,在GIS平台上运用双变量统计方法,分析了滑坡与各环境因子之间的关系,根据滑坡面积密度建立了概率指数评价模型,进行了研究区滑坡危险性评价,结果表明,此模型具有较好的评价精度。     

基于属性约简的决策树算法研究

针对数据集中无关的、干扰的属性会降低决策树算法性能的问题,提出了一个新的决策树算法,此算法根据对测试属性进行约简选择,提出以测试属性和决策属性的相似性作为决策树的启发规则来构建决策树,同时使用了分类阈值设定方法简化决策树的生成过程.实验证明,该算法运行效率和预测精度都优于传统的ID3算法.     

基于代价敏感混合分裂策略的多决策树算法

煤矿瓦斯预警可视为是否安全的分类问题,数据呈现不平衡分布特点。为此,提出一种混合策略属性选择多决策树分类算法:算法融合代价敏感因子,结合C4.5和CART属性选择方法作为分裂指标,并采用了基于不同根节点信息的多决策树建树方法。首先采用11个非平衡数据集进行算法有效性验证,实验结果表明,该方法可以有效针对不平衡数据进行分类,保证高准确率的前提下,有效提高了少数类预测准确性;进而将该算法用于煤矿瓦斯数据预测,结果表明,所提出方法可以有效提高煤矿瓦斯数据的总体预测性能。     

Only connect: teaching, technology and telesis

Abstract This paper describes an approach to the design of interactive multimedia materials being developed in a European Community project. The developmental process is seen as a dialogue between technologists and teachers. This dialogue is often problematic because of the differences in training, experience and culture between them. Conditions needed for fruitful dialogue are described and the generic model for learning design used in the project is explained.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计及其仿真实现

为了设计一种具有低成本、低功耗、易操作、功能强且可靠性高的煤矿井下安全分站,针对煤矿安全生产实际,文章提出了采用MCS-51系列单片机为核心、具有CAN总线通信接口的煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计方案;首先给出煤矿井下安全监控分站的整体构架设计,然后着重阐述模拟量输入信号处理系统的设计过程,最后说明单片机最小系统及其键盘、显示、报警、通信等各个组成部分的设计;为验证设计方案的可行性与有效性,使用Proteus软件对设计内容进行仿真验证,设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有瓦斯、温度等模拟量参数超标报警功能和电机开停、风门开闭等开关量指示功能;仿真结果表明:设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有一定的实际应用价值.     

Avoiding semantic and temporal gaps in developing software intensive systems

Development of software intensive systems (systems) in practice involves a series of self-contained phases for the lifecycle of a system. Semantic and temporal gaps, which occur among phases and among developer disciplines within and across phases, hinder the ongoing development of a system because of the interdependencies among phases and among disciplines. Such gaps are magnified among systems that are developed at different times by different development teams, which may limit reuse of artifacts of systems development and interoperability among the systems. This article discusses such gaps and a systems development process for avoiding them.     

Designing economic np control charts: A programmed simulation approach

This paper presents control charts models and the necessary simulation software for the location of economic values of the control parameters. The simulation program is written in FORTRAN, requires only 10K of main storage, and can run on most mini and micro computers. Two models are presented - one describes the process when it is operating at full capacity and the other when the process is operating under capacity. The models allow the product quality to deteriorate to a further level before an existing out-of-control state is detected, and they can also be used in situations where no prior knowledge exists of the out-of-control causes and the resulting proportion defectives.     

The development of robot art

Going through a few examples of robot artists who are recognized worldwide, we try to analyze the deepest meaning of what is called “robot art” and the related art field definition. We also try to highlight its well-marked borders, such as kinetic sculptures, kinetic art, cyber art, and cyberpunk. A brief excursion into the importance of the context, the message, and its semiotics is also provided, case by case, together with a few hints on the history of this discipline in the light of an artistic perspective. Therefore, the aim of this article is to try to summarize the main characteristics that might classify robot art as a unique and innovative discipline, and to track down some of the principles by which a robotic artifact can or cannot be considered an art piece in terms of social, cultural, and strictly artistic interest. This work was presented in part at the 13th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, Oita, Japan, January 31–February 2, 2008     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

View-based model-driven architecture for enhancing maintainability of data access services

In modern service-oriented architectures, database access is done by a special type of services, the so-called data access services (DAS). Though, particularly in data-intensive applications, using and developing DAS are very common today, the link between the DAS and their implementation, e.g. a layer of data access objects (DAOs) encapsulating the database queries, still is not sufficiently elaborated, yet. As a result, as the number of DAS grows, finding the desired DAS for reuse and/or associated documentation can become an impossible task. In this paper we focus on bridging this gap between the DAS and their implementation by presenting a view-based, model-driven data access architecture (VMDA) managing models of the DAS, DAOs and database queries in a queryable manner. Our models support tailored views of different stakeholders and are scalable with all types of DAS implementations. In this paper we show that our view-based and model driven architecture approach can enhance software development productivity and maintainability by improving DAS documentation. Moreover, our VMDA opens a wide range of applications such as evaluating DAS usage for DAS performance optimization. Furthermore, we provide tool support and illustrate the applicability of our VMDA in a large-scale case study. Finally, we quantitatively prove that our approach performs with acceptable response times.     

A pragmatic multi-method investigation of discrepant technological events: Coping,attributions, and ‘accidental’ learning

Discrepant technological events or situations that entail a problem, a misunderstanding or a difficulty with the Information Technology (IT) being employed, are common in the workplace, and can lead to frustration and avoidance behaviors. Little is known, however, about how individuals cope with these events. This paper examines these events by using a multi-method pragmatic approach informed by coping theory. The results of two studies – a critical incident study and an experiment – serve to build and test, respectively, a theoretical model that posits that individuals use a variety of strategies when dealing with these events: they experience negative emotions, make external attributions, and adopt engagement coping strategies directed at solving the event, eventually switching to a disengagement coping strategy when they feel they have no control over the situation. Furthermore, users’ efforts may result in ‘accidental’ learning as they try to overcome the discrepant IT events through engagement coping. The paper ends with a discussion of the results in light of existing literature, future opportunities for research, and implications for practice.