A companion modeling approach applied to fishery management

Don Hoi Lord, a coastal wetland in the upper gulf of Thailand, is famous for the razor clam (Solen regularis), which is a source of food and income for local fishermen. However, the razor clam population is significantly decreasing so the aim of this study was to analyze the razor clam fishery and develop a management plan engaging the different stakeholders in collective discussions. A participatory modelling approach was used, including (a) agent-based modelling (ABM) and (b) role-playing games (RPG). First, an individual-state distribution model of the razor clam population was designed and calibrated to synthesise knowledge. Two RPG sessions supported by this biological model were organised to initiate collective learning and promote discussion among stakeholders. After playing with the baseline scenario showing the actual harvesting situation, discussions led to the definition of alternative scenarios for clam management such as establishment and rotation of zones closed for harvesting, and quota systems. These scenarios developed during the RPG sessions were more deeply investigated with an agent-based model that included fishermen agents and the individual-state distribution model of the razor clam population. Simulations of different scenarios (reserve, quota and combination of reserve and quota) were produced to enable better informed discussion between different stakeholders. Stakeholders have acknowledged that management through rotating reserves is not efficient if the duration of reserves is too short. They have realised that the efficiency of reserves is hard to assess without better data on clam recruitment. They have also explored another management option which is the quota system. In the final stage, the local participatory process was endorsed by the incumbent regional policy-making actor. Unfortunately, because of rapid administrative rotation the project abruptly lost support. This unexpected event emphasises the need for continuous monitoring of all actors entering and/or leaving the system, which can radically change the interactions among them and, therefore, the whole management context.     

RPG游戏角色设定的艺术特征和方法分析

RPG游戏作为现今最受欢迎的游戏类型,具有高度的艺术性、故事性与交互性。优秀的角色设计能够调动玩家参与游戏的积极性,文章在RGP游戏类别下,提出“三维”的细节化角色造型设定的方法,结合经典RPG游戏对角色设定的艺术特征进行了描述性的分析与归纳,并且引发迎合女性玩家角色缺失的关注,为拓展RPG游戏角色设定空间提供参考。     

A companion modelling approach applied to forest management planning

To assist the Société Civile des Terres du Larzac (SCTL) in its effort to develop alternative forest management plans, a group of researchers and extension officers proposed applying a companion modelling approach. The objective was to support forest owners and livestock farmers while they worked out a solution to their forest management problems. The approach was based on the co-construction and use of an agent-based model providing a shared representation of the current management of farms and providing multiple view points on alternative forest management scenarios. The validation of the model allowed the development of a shared representation of the territory. The use of the model as an exploratory tool empowered local stakeholders to elaborate alternative management strategies for their renewable resources (forage, timber, firewood). It also expanded the discussion on forest management to a multi-scale level where managers assumed progressively a role of land administrators. When playing this role, they compared their forest policy orientations and forest harvesting decisions with farmers’ individual situations and interests. Participants became aware of how spatial and temporal scales of management overlap and they progressively worked out a compromise between livestock breeding concerns of farmers and forest dynamics concerns of SCTL managers.     

基于RPG Maker XP的“南国精英”游戏地图制作

RPG游戏是游戏界的一大类型,深受人们的喜爱。利用RPG Maker XP可以方便快捷的开发出受人喜爱的RPG游戏,该文主要介绍在利用RMXP软件制作RPG游戏时,通过AI去制作游戏地图。     

Development and testing of a river basin management simulation game for integrated management of the Magdalena-Cauca river basin

Sustainable basin management is important for both people and ecosystems. Increasing science-policy and inter-sectoral dialogue is recommended as a means to balance competing demands and achieve this; however, this dialogue is not necessarily easy to achieve. Here, we present a serious game aimed at communicating the complex relationships present in river basins and enabling dialogue between policy-makers and scientists in the Magdalena-Cauca basin, Colombia. Players guide the development of a fictional river basin over 30 years and the impacts of their decisions are simulated using WEAP water resources modelling software. The game has been used in various contexts. Here, experiences with stakeholders at a national forum in Bogota and with water professionals in Bangkok are discussed. The experience shows that the game is attractive to stakeholders, stimulates dialogue and provides interesting insights into the way computer models and stakeholders mental models can interact with and enrich each other.     

Participatory Bayesian modelling for sustainable and efficient river restoration projects: Feedback from the case study of the Gave de Pau River,Hautes‐Pyrénées,France

Through the diversity of criteria and stakes, the uncertain nature of the entailed phenomena and the multi‐scale aspects to be taken into account, a river restoration project can be considered as a complex problem. Integrative approaches and modelling tools are thus needed to help river managers make predictions on the evolution of hydromorphological, socio‐economic, safety and ecological issues. Such approach can provide valuable information for handling long‐term management plans that consider the interaction and the balance of stakeholders interests and river system functioning. In this paper, we present a probabilistic participatory modelling (PM) method that assesses the effects of given restoration actions, knowing the hydromorphological modifications that they may induce on the safety, ecological and socio‐economic aspects with the help of local stakeholders through several workshops. To support this strategy, we used Bayesian networks (BNs) as modelling tools as their causal graphs can combine multidimensional knowledge and data from diverse natures. We introduce the causal graphs elaborated with the help of the stakeholders and convert it into BNs that can assist restoration decisions by considering the available decision and utility functions to provide guidance to decision‐makers. This was applied to the “Lac des Gaves” reach in the Hautes‐Pyrénées, France, a reach that has gone through severe sediment extractions for over 50 years. Each network represents possible restoration decisions linked to one of the observed issues. The paper demonstrates how BNs used as a decision support system (DSS) can help to assess the influence of given management strategies on the river system with the consideration of stakeholders’ knowledge and integration in all the modelling process.     

Modelling of spatial dynamics and biodiversity conservation on Lure mountain (France)

Our study is part of a multi-disciplinary research project aimed at stimulating debate among researchers and local managers. The central question of this multi-disciplinary research project was to better understand and manage high biodiversity value open habitats threatened with shrub encroachment and landscape closure, a common problem throughout Europe. Here, we study shrub encroachment and its impact on biodiversity conservation in Mount Ventoux, a MAB Biosphere Reserve located at the southernmost tip of the French Alps. We show how using a multi-agent modelling approach provide a valuable framework to confront two potentially conflicting conservation efforts in this mountain Mediterranean landscape, that of the within-species diversity of a tree (Abies alba, the European silver fir) and that of an endangered species (Vipera ursinii ursinii, the Orsini viper). A companion modelling approach – approach which aims at transmitting and sharing knowledge, methods and tools that help understand and strengthen the collective decision making process of stakeholders sharing a common resource – was used in order to collectively represent the main activities underway on the mountain and to have a tool to address both open landscapes rehabilitation and restoration of forest environments. The co-construction of the model allowed us to build a shared representation of the territory under study and to develop and compare alternative management scenarios with local stakeholders, both to evaluate their impact on biodiversity and to provide information for forest and grazing management practice.     

The effect of data granularity on prediction of extreme hydrological events in highly urbanized watersheds: A supervised classification approach

During heavy rains, small urbanized watersheds with predominantly impervious surfaces exhibit high surface runoff which may subsequently lead to flash floods. Prediction of such extreme events in an efficient and timely manner is one of the important problems faced by regional flood management teams. These predictions can be done using supervised classification and data collected by stream and rain gauges installed on the watershed. The accuracy of predictions depends on data granularity which determines the achievable level of uncertainty for different lead time intervals. The study was implemented on data collected in a highly urbanized watershed of a small stream – Spring Creek, Ontario, Canada. It was demonstrated that the upscaling of observation data improves the classifiers’ performance while increasing modelling scales. The obtained results suggest the development of ensembles of classifiers trained on data sets of different granularity as a means to extend the lead time of reliable predictions.     

Narrative Structure and Player Experience in Role-Playing Games

This article reports an experimental study that investigated the effects of narrative structure and number of salient decision points in a role-playing game (RPG). Previous research has proposed various theories and frameworks and posited that a branching structure with increased complexity (i.e., more salient decision points) will improve player’s enjoyment. However, no empirical study has been conducted to validate these statements. This research attempts to fill in this gap. Two hypotheses were developed based on prior research. In a controlled experiment, participants were asked to view prerecorded game play sessions based on which participant experiences were assessed. The experiment suggests that both narrative structure and number of salient decision points impact on game play experience of RPGs.     

基于J2ME的手机网络RPG游戏引擎

手机网络RPG游戏在日益增长,为了尽快将游戏推向市场,可以利用游戏引擎进行快捷的游戏开发。论文基于J2ME的MIDP2.0,探讨了一个实用的手机网络RPG游戏引擎的设计与实现。按照模块化思想,该引擎分为公用模块、媒体处理模块、地图及场景模块、人物及NPC模块、消息处理模块、场景绘制模块和网络传送模块。经过在MotorolaA6288实际使用与模拟运行,游戏运行流畅,完全满足实际使用的要求。     

Modelling with stakeholders

Stakeholder engagement, collaboration, or participation, shared learning or fact-finding, have become buzz words and hardly any environmental assessment or modelling effort today can be presented without some kind of reference to stakeholders and their involvement in the process. This is clearly a positive development, but in far too many cases stakeholders have merely been paid lip service and their engagement has consequentially been quite nominal. Nevertheless, it is generally agreed that better decisions are implemented with less conflict and more success when they are driven by stakeholders, that is by those who will be bearing their consequences. Participatory modelling, with its various types and clones, has emerged as a powerful tool that can (a) enhance the stakeholders knowledge and understanding of a system and its dynamics under various conditions, as in collaborative learning, and (b) identify and clarify the impacts of solutions to a given problem, usually related to supporting decision making, policy, regulation or management. In this overview paper we first look at the different types of stakeholder modelling, and compare participatory modelling to other frameworks that involve stakeholder participation. Based on that and on the experience of the projects reported in this issue and elsewhere, we draw some lessons and generalisations. We conclude with an outline of some future directions.     

Modelling with stakeholders to integrate biodiversity into land-use planning – Lessons learned in Réunion Island (Western Indian Ocean)

This paper considers participatory modelling to integrate biodiversity conservation into land use planning and to facilitate the incorporation of ecological knowledge into public decision making for spatial planning. Réunion Island has experienced rapid urban and agricultural expansion, which threaten its unique biodiversity. In this context, we designed three participatory modelling sequences, involving overall 24 multidisciplinary researchers and stakeholders. The sequences aimed: (1) to map land-use and biodiversity, (2) to develop a conservation plan following systematic conservation planning principles using a spatial optimization tool (MARXAN) and (3) to simulate coupled land-use/conservation scenarios using a multi-agent system (MAS). The conservation plan confirms that priority areas for biodiversity protection are located on the coast where rapid land-use changes occur. Nevertheless, stakeholders from the urban and agricultural sector did not participate to this sequence. Indeed, conservation planning tools are useful to locate conservation priorities but they have to be designed with stakeholders to be accepted as negotiation tool. Besides, the researchers engaged in this second sequence were perceived as conservation stakeholders rather than holders of scientific knowledge. In the third sequence, the researchers involved adopted the stance of facilitating the elicitation of each stake and gathered trust from stakeholders. Overall, we conclude that the participatory development of land-use simulation models should be promoted to explore alternative scenarios for biodiversity conservation with stakeholders. In a situation of land-use conflict, a gradual and sequential participatory modelling approach should be implemented to fit into public decision-making processes.     

The relation between EA effectiveness and stakeholder satisfaction

Enterprise Architecture (EA) is increasingly being used by large organizations to get a grip on the complexity of their business processes, information systems and technical infrastructure. Although seen as an important instrument to help solve major organizational problems, effectively applying EA seems no easy task. Active participation of EA stakeholders is one of the main critical success factors for EA. This participation depends on the degree in which EA helps stakeholders achieve their individual goals. A highly related topic is effectiveness of EA, the degree in which EA helps to achieve the collective goals of the organization. In this article we present our work regarding EA stakeholder satisfaction and EA effectiveness, and compare these two topics. We found that, regarding EA, the individual goals of stakeholders map quite well onto the collective goals of the organization. In a case study we conducted, we found that the organization is primarily concerned with the final results of EA, while individual stakeholders also worry about the way the architects operate.     

An integrated assessment approach to conduct analyses of climate change impacts on whole-farm systems

This paper argues that an integrated assessment (IA) approach, combining simulation modelling with deliberative processes involving decision makers and other stakeholders, has the potential to generate credible and relevant assessments of climate change impacts on farming systems. The justification for the approach proposed is that while simulation modelling provides an effective way of exploring the range of possible impacts of climate change and a means of testing the consequences of possible management or policy interventions, the interpretation of the outputs is highly dependent on the point of view of the stakeholder. Inevitably, whatever the responses to climate change, there will be trade-offs between the benefits and costs to a range of stakeholders. The use of a deliberative process that includes stakeholders, both in defining the topics addressed and in debating the interpretations of the outcomes, addresses many of the limitations that have been previously identified in the use of computer-based tools for agricultural decision support. The paper further argues that the concepts of resilience and adaptive capacity are useful for the assessment of climate change impacts as they provide an underpinning theory for processes of change in land use systems. The integrated modelling framework (IMF) developed for the simulation of whole-farm systems is detailed, including components for crop and soil processes, livestock systems and a tool for scheduling of resource use within management plans. The use of the IMF for assessing climate change impacts is then outlined to demonstrate the range of analyses possible. The paper concludes with a critique of the IA approach and notes that issues of quantification and communication of uncertainty are central to the success of the methodology.     

There's Nothing Like a Good Argument ...

Since computing pioneers Vannevar Bush and Doug Engelbart envisioned computational support for argumentation, many have pursued the exciting vision of tools for capturing and augmenting collective reasoning. Designers would be able to capture their deliberations on the fly during design sessions, with intuitive visualizations assisting participatory analysis by diverse stakeholders. These traces would later help recover design rationale. When managing requirements, we can think of argument schemes as reusable patterns for tightening up deliberations. Project reviews are an obvious candidate, where decisions must be justified, often to be signed off, and resources committed. As meeting capture becomes a practical reality, we have the basis for requirements platforms that provide new forms of multimedia requirements and rationale traceability.     

Improved Fuzzy Rule Promotion-Based Localized Crop Knowledge Dissemination System for Farmers of Punjab (India) Using Mobile Phone Technology

Indian economy includes the major contribution provided by agriculturally driven activities. There is need to provide the agricultural stakeholders an appropriate, reliable, local, fast, ‘round-the-clock, and precise knowledge, possibly in their native language, in order that they can enhance their decision-making capacity to improve the agricultural productivity. This can be achieved by using mobile phones. Mobile phones are becoming part of the daily routine of farmers and can be used to disseminate this appropriate, multilingual, localized knowledge right at the location of use. In this article, an improved fuzzy rule promotion-based technique to infer advice to farmers has been presented. Using this technique, an Android-based mobile phone application named mAgIDS has been developed. This application uses a Global Positioning System (GPS) for localized inference and local language selected by the user. The application was tested on the dataset of a disease diagnosis of a paddy crop. The chi-square (χ²) test was used to match the result of the mAgIDS system with the experts’ inferences. It was found that the results of the system and experts match with an accuracy of 95.84% at a 5% level of significance. Twenty-two scientists, working at various locations within Punjab state in India, were contacted for validation of the system, with 15 relevant parameters. It was found that the proposed system is statistically valid. The real-time implementation of the system provides immense and timely help to the farmers in making appropriate decisions for their crop production.     

MMORPG超大地图中的场景数据组织

大规模多人玩在线角色扮演的游戏时存在两个需要解决的基本问题：实时性和数据同步。当游戏中使用超大地图时,这两个问题尤其难以解决。为此,本文提出了一种基于分层组织的场景数据组织方法,对于场景中的物体,分成了地表层、地表物件层、物件层、障碍层和事件触发层进行数据组织。本方法满足网络数据处理的实时性和同步性要求。     

Designing and implementing a Role-Playing Game: A tool to explain factors,decision making and landscape transformation

In this paper we describe a research process on contextual driving factors and decision-making processes used by local actors for land use change in a zone of the Colombian Amazonian frontier. We integrated landscape multi-temporal analysis, Role-Playing Games (RPG), interviews based on flow diagrams and an historical study of landscape dynamics for the construction of our methodological approach. Findings of the study include individual detailed decision-making insights at the farm level that shed light on the mechanisms that boost the advance of the agricultural frontier into the Amazonian forest. We illustrate how individual decisions are related with the general landscape dynamics. A formalization of results was carried out in UML (Unified Modeling Language) for the future construction of a Multi Agent System (MAS) model, the implementation of which will be useful for land use planning, discussions among local and regional actors and scenario building. The RPG constitutes a device that could “talk” by itself, in the name of local actors. Facts that hardly would be communicated in an interview emerge implicitly and explicitly through the exercise. The RPG is a device that we call a “dense methodological tool”, in the sense that it is a designed object that synthesizes a complex system. This is central to territorial planning because RPG and derived MAS models talk to actors and researchers in the same language that human memory and projection mental capabilities function. These objects condense time and space and help make problems clear, and they assist in the finding of solutions and exploration of possible scenarios.     

Usability of RPG-based Learning Framework

The study assessed the usability of the Role-Playing Game-based Learning Framework (RPG LF) using the System Usability Scale (SUS). The test was conducted on a group of 35 undergraduates who played the sample implementation of the RPG LF. The study concluded with the respondents giving positive feedback on the use of the RPG LF for learning. Detailed probing into gender comparison and academic age group comparison revealed more details about the usability of RPG LF. There was not much difference between the sexes. Younger academic age group demonstrated more uncertainty compared to their seniors in terms of the usability of RPG LF. The study also factorized the original SUS data into 8-question Usability scale and 2-question Learnability scale, respectively. The findings were in line with the findings by other researchers that the 8-question Usability scale is a good substitute for the original 10-question SUS and is a better candidate in comparison to the 2-question Learnability scale. The study concluded that the RPG LF is a good framework to implement game into enhancing learning experience and suggested for longitudinal study to be conducted to assess the effectiveness of RPG LF.     

基于logit模型的生物质供应链集成优化

针对农户的选择偏好,引入基于logit的离散计量分析模型,以研究秸秆收购价格、成本及政府补贴对农户生物质供应选择行为的影响。在此基础上,应用Stackelberg博弈模型对生物质供应链中加工厂、收集站和农户等不同利益主体之间的决策进行分析,确定了最优的生物质收购价格及收集站的服务半径。最后,通过算例分析验证了上述优化决策模型的有效性。研究表明,农户供应模式的选择与其对效用的敏感程度有关;政府实行补贴激励不仅能提高农户将秸秆直接送至加工厂的积极性,对加工厂和收集站的利益也有不同程度的提高。