Non-Cooperative Stability Definitions for Strategic Analysis of Generic Water Resources Conflicts

In game theory, potential resolutions to a conflict are found through stability analysis, based on stability definitions having precise mathematical structures. A stability definition reflects a decision maker’s behavior in a conflict or game, predicts how the game is played, and suggests the resolutions or equilibria of the dispute. Various stability definitions, reflecting different types of people with different levels of foresight, risk attitude, and knowledge of opponents’ preferences, have been proposed for resolving games. This paper reviews and illustrates six stability definitions, applicable to finite strategy strategic non-cooperative water resources games, including Nash Stability, General Metarationality (GMR), Symmetric Metarationality (SMR), Sequential Stability (SEQ), Limited-Move Stability, and Non-Myopic Stability. The introduced stability definitions are applied to an interesting and highly informative range of generic water resources games to show how analytical results vary based on the applied stability definitions. The paper suggests that game theoretic models can better simulate real conflicts if the applied stability definitions better reflect characteristics of the players. When there is a lack of information about the types of decision makers, the employment of a range of stability definitions might improve the strategic results and provide useful insights into the basic framework of the conflict and its resolution.     

全国水利科技工作会议专家论坛——对南水北调工程的基本认识

一、前言 南水北调是我国水资源优化配置,解决北方地区(主要是黄淮海流域)缺水的一项战略性基础设施工程,它关系到我国黄淮海地区经济社会和生态环境可持续发展的长远利益。40多年来,各有关部门、省(自治区、直辖市)和规划设计单位做了大量的规划设计研究工作,逐步明确了南水北调工程的主要目标和任务,形成了从长江上、中、下游分别调水的南水北调工程总体规划布局。     

A New Integrated MADM Technique Combined with ANP,FTOPSIS and Fuzzy Max-Min Set Method for Evaluating Water Transfer Projects

In sustainable water resources management, it is essential to rank inter-basin water transfer projects. This task is difficult due to many different conflict criteria, complex relations among criteria and various judgments of decision makers. In this paper, an integrated multiple attribute group decision making method consists of ANP (Analytical Network Process), fuzzy TOPSIS and fuzzy max-min set methods is proposed for evaluating water transfer projects. A set of over 60 criteria in social, environmental and economic sectors are used for ranking four water transfer projects in Karun River based on three decision maker judgments. A key novelty of the proposed methodology is its ability to model both complex relations among different criteria in water management and the influence of decision maker judgments’ weights on the final ranking in group decision making problem. The procedure starts by obtaining the priority of water transfer projects and the weight of each decision maker judgments by employing ANP and fuzzy TOPSIS, respectively. These weights are used as inputs in the fuzzy max-min set method. Then the effects of decision maker weights on the final ranking are determined in fuzzy environment. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of decision makers’ weights has been conducted. The results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for group decision making problems by considering different criteria and decision makers’ weights.     

基于协商对策的群决策模型及其在跨流域调水方案优选中的应用

本文分析了调水方案决策的多目标性和群决策性特点,研究基于"满意原则"的多人多目标决策模型。重点针对决策者利益的有限冲突性,提出基于协商对策的多目标群决策模型。以辽宁省"引细入汤"工程方案决策为例,构筑了由冲突双方和仲裁方组成的三方仲裁局势,并详细阐述模型的求解过程。该模型在满足公平性原则前提下,兼顾了冲突双方及整体利益,具有较强的可操作性和实用性。     

Stochastic Optimal Reservoir Operation Management,Applying Group Conflict Resolution Model

In the present study, qualitative simulation model of reservoir and genetic algorithm optimization model were combined based on fuzzy logic to determine the trade off curve with stochastic quantitative and qualitative objectives. According to contradictory utilities of decision makers with respect to the obtained optimum trade off curve, a model of group conflict resolution was developed in order to determine the best point on the trade off curve from the perspective of decision makers. Using the outcome of conflict resolution model which was indicative of acceptable water quality for all decision makers, the optimization model was re-run, and time series of monthly water opeartion was determined for the agreed quality of beneficiaries. Finally, with the aim of formulating timely policies of operation of the reservoir, the use of probabilistic support vector machines that have the ability to create output possibilities was suggested. The proposed model was used for the operation of 15-Khordad Dam Reservoir, Iran. The results demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the fuzzy optimization model as well as the importance of using group conflict resolution model to provide the utility of decision makers in the operation of the reservoir.

     

A Multicriteria Group Decision Model to Support Watershed Committees in Brazil

The involvement of multiple decision makers in water resources management can be very complex, involving the possibilities of conflicts amongst the stakeholders and the influence of powerful members over the preference of others. The inherent characteristic of decisions also increases this complexity due to many alternatives being involved and there being multiple criteria. Some of these criteria conflict with each other and the consequences of which will have great impact on those involved and on third parties. Therefore, a group decision support system model based on multicriteria analysis can be a powerful tool to support this kind of management. This study presents a tool to support the committee responsible for the management of the watersheds in Brazil in order to promote decentralization and the participation of all involved in the water resources management. The tool provides a ranking of alternatives for the environmental recuperation of the watershed through the use of the multicriteria method PROMETHEE II. For each decision maker, the alternatives were ranked and then the individual rankings were combined into a global ranking which contained the preferences of the whole group.     

Decision Process in a Water Use Conflict in Brazil

This paper presents a procedure for decision analysis in water use conflicts among irrigators. It seeks feasible compromise term among decision makers by using optimal results for different proposals of solutions. The process is developed by applying the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. The case study is the existing conflict among Coqueiros canal water users. This 45 km canal belongs to a complex irrigation and drainage canal network and it is located at Campos dos Goytacazes municipality, in the northern region of the State of Rio de Janeiro. Its basin has a potential irrigable area of approximately 14,000 ha. Six hypothetical scenarios have been built, each one corresponding to different alternatives to the conflict solution. In addition, two different tendencies were adopted by the Management Institution (MI) in order to take care of the conflict. The first tendency takes into account that the MI has no explicit preferences for any of its actions. As for the second one, the MI shows explicit preferences for the scenarios which provide more income taxes. Some scenarios that reached the state of equilibrium were analyzed to provide solutions to the conflict.     

Unpacking water conflicts: a reinterpretation of coordination problems in China’s water-governance system

In China, water conflicts have been traditionally framed as the external costs of economic development and tackled with technocratic measures. This study examines water conflicts through the lens of water diversion, water allocation and water functional zoning. It reframes water conflicts as a result of coordination problems nested in complex inter-jurisdictional interactions. With a game-theoretic illustration, it identifies that individual and group heterogeneities are two challenges to effective coordination. It argues that China’s state-centric water institutions are tailored to optimize overall social utilities, yet they constrain coordination due to insufficient costs and benefits redistribution mechanisms at the local level.     

构建投入机制 夯实工作基础全力实现云南水利跨越发展

为贯彻落实中央加快水利改革发展的决策部署,云南省委、省政府针对云南实际,出台了一系列含金量高、操作性强的相关政策.“兴水强滇”战略决定的出台实施,特别是“按土地出让收入的5％计提专项水利资金用于农田水利建设”等措施和做法,为建立水利投入稳定增长机制提供了政策保障.一年来,在水利投入不断加大的推动下,云南水利基础设施建设质量和速度显著提高,各项水利建设进展顺利.在此基础上,云南抢抓机遇,明确一条主线,抓住两个关键,实现三个突破,建成四大体系,强化五个支撑,朝着水利跨越发展的目标迈进.     

我国流域管理机构的角色定位

流域管理在我国具有悠久的历史。随着经济的发展和改革的深入,国家和流域管理机构对促进流域的水管理工作越来越重视。运用角色理论界定流域管理机构的六种角色,分析角色的冲突,提出未来我国流域管理机构要科学合理地分配与平衡这六种角色。     

天津市因地制宜构建最严格水资源管理制度框架

2011年,天津市被确定为全国实行最严格水资源管理制度的试点.按照水利部对实行最严格水资源管理制度试点“四个率先”的总体要求,天津市全面推进试点建设任务.为更好完成试点建设任务,天津市因地制宜构建了制度框架,从用水总量控制、用水效率控制、水功能区限制纳污等方面确立了符合天津实际的制度;结合天津实际,对国家确立的“三条红线”考核指标进行了适当修正和补充;在现有基础上加强了水资源管理系统建设;同时,起草完成了《实行最严格水资源管理制度考核暂行办法》.     

水资源优化配置的冲突问题博弈分析

力求通过建立完全信息动态博弈模型求解水资源冲突分析问题．博弈模型主要针对一条河流上、下游为了分享水资源，从各自要求出发，提出的解决方案与流域管理机构进行协调之间的用水冲突问题，力求通过流域管理机构的水资源费率和宏观调控的水权交易价格，求解水资源可持续发展情况下的市场均衡模型．以此达到有水资源费率和水权交易两种调控手段的情况下各决策者追求自身利益的结果．     

基于HAZOP-LOPA的水利工程空间冲突风险评价

为分析水利水电工程中空间冲突的解决方案及其经济性,运用危险与可操作性研究方法(HAZOP)和保护层分析方法(LOPA)对空间冲突的措施进行评价。分析水利水电工程施工特点,运用HAZOP识别水利水电施工过程中潜在的空间冲突。针对可能遇到的空间冲突列出相应的安全措施。采用LOPA对各安全措施进行评价,研究其失效概率,并通过比较采取安全措施所耗费资金与空间冲突所带来损失的金额多少,判断是否应该采取安全措施。结果表明:在发现空间冲突时立即采取措施,从降低工程成本的角度来看可能并不可取;而运用HAZOP-LOPA分析评价空间冲突安全措施的经济性之后,再决定是否采取措施,可以有效地降低工程成本。     

基于减法集对势的漳河上游水资源冲突风险评价与态势分析研究

为有效预防漳河上游水资源冲突,积极维护地区水安全,科学合理地评价水资源冲突风险和预测风险态势演化尤为重要。基于水量、用水效率、水质、生态环境和社会经济等5个维度构建了水资源冲突风险评价及态势分析框架,运用熵权法和集对分析理论构建了基于减法集对势的水资源冲突风险评价及态势分析模型,对漳河上游2011-2020年的水资源冲突风险进行评价,通过五元减法集对势动态分析风险发展态势。结果表明：漳河上游水资源冲突风险水平较低且呈现下降的态势;3个省份水资源冲突风险等级由高到低依次为山西省、河北省、河南省。从水资源冲突的5个维度来看,河北省需重点关注水量和用水效率引起的冲突风险,河南省整体情况较好,山西省则需重点关注水量、水质和社会经济引起的冲突风险。研究结果对识别漳河上游水资源冲突风险、缓解水事纠纷和维护地区稳定具有重要的现实意义。     

关于中国特色水利现代化道路的思考

2011年中央1号文件提出“要努力走出一条中国特色水利现代化道路”,为新时期水利改革和发展指明了方向。根据对现代化内涵的理解,分析水利现代化的内涵和特征,并结合我国的国情和水情,提出推进我国水利现代化进程的对策和建议。     

对小型水利工程产权制度改革的反思

2011年中央1号文件强调要"深化小型水利工程产权制度改革"。小型水利工程产权制度改革已有多年实践,如何深化,这是一个非常值得研究的问题。通过对过去小型水利工程产权制度改革的实践进行总结反思,结合当前水利改革发展的新形势、新任务、新要求,提出应当注重的问题和遵循的原则。     

A Framework for an Agent-Based Model to Manage Water Resources Conflicts

Competition for use of water is increasing and leads to many conflicts among competing interests with complex goals and water management systems. Technical system models are essential to create performance and other decision information, but models to simulate views of the competing parties are also needed to help resolve or mitigate conflicts. Agent-based models (ABMs) offer promise to fill this role, and in this study a new approach to agent-based modeling is introduced to simulate the behavior and interactions of the parties participating in a conflict scenario, which is modeled as a game. To develop this framework, we considered water issues of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region as an example of a long-standing situation, with emphasis on the San Joaquin watershed. However, this approach can be used in other watersheds and more complex systems. The ABM explains the interactions among the parties and how they can be encouraged to cooperate in the game to work toward a solution. The model also enables decision-makers to test management scenarios and understand the consequences of their decisions on different stakeholders and their behaviors.     

Hy:Con: A Strategic Tool For Balancing Hydropower Development And Conservation Needs

Hydropower (HP) is an important renewable energy source contributing 65.7% to Austria's national electricity generation. However, HP is also associated with ecosystem degradations jeopardizing the aims of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) and Habitats Directive. Based on the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED), the Austrian Energy Strategy has defined goals to further increase HP production by 3.5 TWh until 2015. Because national strategies for HP development are widely missing, hydropower plants (HPPs) are planned and approved on a local and regional level, often neglecting the overall optimum for energy supply and ecology. Therefore, a decision support tool (Hy:Con) was developed to integrate the energy‐economic characteristics of planned HPPs and conservation needs of ecologically sensible river stretches. Based on 102 planned HPPs in Austria, Hy:Con identified HPPs with high economic attractiveness and low conservation concerns. The results show that owing to the already high HP exploitation in Austria, only a minor number of projects are without conservation conflicts. Upgrading of existing HPPs was associated with least ecological impacts, while HPPs with reservoirs are favoured over run‐of‐river plants. Cumulated ecological effects of numerous small HPPs are significant, whereas their contribution to overall energy production is comparatively small. Hy:Con represents a strategic instrument that can help decision makers to govern the implementation of the RED and WFD in a transparent way to pinpoint the limitations of future HP development and to avoid conflicts and stranded investments. © 2015 The Autors. River Research and Applications Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

西电东送与南方电网的发展

西电东送是我国西部大开发的一个重要战略决策,是我国统筹区域发展的一条重要路径选择.西电东送大致可以分为3条通道,即南通道、北通道、中通道.南通道由南方电网公司负责,北通道、中通道由国家电网公司负责.西电东送在南方电网取得了令人瞩目的成绩,二者相辅相成,互为促进.主要论述西电东送的意义、前景,南方电网与西电东送的关系、现状与发展等问题.     

An alternative framework for analysing and managing conflicts in integrated water resources management (IWRM): linking theory and practice

Research on water resource conflicts needs to be better aligned with practitioner approaches to water resources development, chiefly integrated water resources management (IWRM). This paper bridges the gap between research and practice through a novel application of the social–ecological systems framework to a set of 10 conflict cases from an IWRM initiative in rural Central America. The conflicts in the empirical cases are found to be primarily the result of socio-political variables, particularly low levels of trust and social capital, and peacebuilding is suggested as a promising approach to address this suite of conflicts. The paper concludes with a proposed course of research designed to further both theoretical and applied knowledge of water resource conflicts.