建筑业产业成长发展轨迹的回归分析

采用横向研究方法,利用44 个国家的截面数据为样本,建立了关于建筑业产业成长发展轨迹的回归模型。回归结果表明,国内生产总值中建筑业增加值的比重与人均国民生产总值之间呈现倒U 型,符合库兹涅茨倒U 形曲线假说。基于该回归模型,对我国“十一五”期间建筑业产业发展现状进行了评价,分析了我国建筑业发展水平高于回归预测值的原因,并提出为实现我国建筑业理性、可持续的发展,应从人才、企业、投资、科技创新几个方面实现产业升级。     

中国建筑业改革开放30年

按照产业发展和改革历史进程,将建筑业改革开放划分为三个阶段:解放思想改革探索阶段、市场化改革创新阶段和融入国际市场机制创新阶段。简要梳理每个阶段改革的动因、进程与成就。最后指出建筑业当前面临的五个突出问题。     

山西省建筑业发展与经济增长关系的实证分析

利用协整理论的方法,对山西省国内生产总值和建筑业的发展之间的关系进行了分析,认为山西省建筑业发展受经济增长的拉动,建立了山西省经济增长与建筑业发展的长期关系,并通过ECM模型对二者的短期波动纠正机制进行了研究,进而得出了一些建议性结论。     

城镇化对建筑业碳排放的影响效应分析

为了针对城镇化发展对建筑业制定行之有效的减排措施和政策,对我国 30 个省份进行建筑业碳排放量的测算,据此划分了高排放、中排放和低排放 3 个区域。以三大碳排放区域为研究对象,探究城镇化对建筑业碳排放的影响效应,以便针对不同影响因素制定不同的措施来减少建筑业碳排放。通过 EKC 曲线模型确定了城镇化与对建筑业碳排放的相关性,将城镇化分解为人口规模、人均国内生产总值、建筑业能源消费结构和能源消耗强度 4 个变量,并通过拓展的 STIRPAT 模型去分析各个变量对建筑业碳排放的影响效应。结果表明,三大碳排放区域的城镇化水平与建筑业碳排放存在显著的相关关系,且 4 个变量均对建筑业碳排放产生显著影响。     

大胆探索 深化改革 努力开创建筑管理工作新局面——在全国建筑管理工作会议上的讲话(摘要)

关于 2 0 0 1年建建筑业面临的形势和基本任务 ,对建筑业发展的总体形势 ,我个人认为还是比较乐观的 ,中国的建筑业面临着一个继续发展的良好的机遇 ,理由有三条 :其一 ,经济社会加速工业化发展的阶段 ,也是建筑业发展由主导产业向支柱产业发展的历史性阶段。许多经济专家以及专门研究建筑经济理论的人士都持这个观点 ,这个观点不是我们自己闭门想出来的 ,而是考察世界各发达国家的发展过程而形成的。历史证明一个产业从出现到完结其历史过程都要经历这么几个阶段 ,即 :基础产业阶段、主导产业阶段、支柱产业阶段 ,然后又回到基础产业阶段。…     

构建建筑业虚拟企业促进产业和谐发展

本文构架产业三层平台,产业平台引导建筑业可持续发展,企业平台基于建筑业企业资源优化、业务流程再造关键环节控制的国际现代管理方式,项目平台遵循建设项目全生命周期机理,选择最佳合作伙伴.建筑业宏观与微观,横向与纵向整体构建,实现建筑节能,降低建设成本,提升建筑智能,实现建筑业虚拟企业整体运行,促进产业和谐发展.     

绿色化背景下的武进模式探索与实践 暨武进绿色建筑产业集聚示范区“十三五”规划建议

<正>一、我国绿色建筑产业发展的现状建筑产业是我国国民经济的重要组成部分,包含建筑业、房地产业、勘察设计业、基础设施建设和延伸的建材生产、装备制造、科技服务、会展金融以及商贸物流等有关行业,产业链长、带动力强、贡献度高。从国家战略层面看,以2014年的建筑业统计为例,2014年全年国内生产总值636463亿元,全年全社会建筑业实现增加值44725亿元,建筑业占国内生产总值比重突破7%,达到7.03%,比上年增加0.17个百分点,进一步巩固了建筑业的     

实施四大战略打造建筑强市

□建筑业有力地促进了地方经济的发展□建筑业加快了农民奔小康的进程□建筑业推动了城乡共同进步建筑业是江苏省江都市的传统产业、优势产业、富民产业。在全面建设小康社会的进程中,建筑业正发挥着越来越重要的作用。建筑业有力促进了江都的经济发展。江都建筑业综合实力在全省各县(市)中位居第三。2003年总产值已突破85亿元,三倍于农业总产值,建筑业增加值约占全市国内生产总值的7%。不仅如此,建筑业还带动了建材、机械、轻工等相关产业的发展,不少建筑企业已涉足房地产、教育、商业、制造业等领域,并取得了良好的经济效益和社会效益。建…     

上市建筑业企业多元化经营与经济绩效关系实证研究

处于竞争日益激烈的市场环境中,企业经济绩效的好坏直接影响到企业的生存与发展。建筑业作为国民经济的支柱性产业,研究建筑业企业多元化经营对其经济绩效的影响具有重要意义。以2010 年以前在上海和深圳两地上市的建筑业企业为样本,对中国建筑业企业多元化经营与其经济绩效的关系进行了实证研究,利用Stata 软件对数据进行回归分析,发现企业的多元化经营与总资产收益率（ROA）指标呈正相关,并受企业资产规模、上市时间等因素的影响,该研究为建筑业企业多元化经营与经济绩效关系的研究提供了新的视角,并根据分析结果提出了相应的建议。     

基于多Agent系统的建筑业虚拟企业集成化管理

从虚拟建设的概念出发,详细分析组成其概念的三个部分,即设计与施工相结合、运用电子技术进行信息沟通、建立合作者横向动态联盟,结合分析VDC理论、多Agent系统理论、ERP理论在建筑业虚拟企业中的可行性和适用性,依据建筑业动态联盟的三个阶段建立与之相对应的三个子联盟多Agent系统模型,从而运用信息技术实现工程项目的集成化管理。     

建筑业周期波动影响因素分析

首先根据改革开放以来我国建筑业价格不变总产值增长率波动图,说明了我国建筑业的发展存在着周期波动的规律。然后以经济周期理论为基础,从内外两方面对我国建筑业周期波动的影响因素进行了分析,得出国内生产总值、固定资产投资、财政政策、货币政策、房地产业和建材工业等是影响建筑业周期波动的外在因素,而劳动、资本和技术进步等则是影响建筑业经济周期波动的内生变量。     

建筑业总产值评析

建筑业总产值是建筑业施工生产活动的总成果。本文不仅从建筑业的特点出发,对照工业总产值较全面地分析和评价了建筑业总产值的功能、特征,而且依据理论和工作实践的需要,提出了改革建筑业总产值统计方法的必要性和具体设想。     

How the capital structure of firms is determined over business cycles: further evidence from the construction industry of Taiwan

This paper uses the panel data regression model to study the Taiwanese construction industry during the period 1982–1995 because during this period, Taiwan’s gross domestic product shows a structural change in economic growth trends over three business cycles. This design allows us to examine whether the effects of firm characteristics and economic growth on capital structure vary with macroeconomic conditions and across periods with changing economic growth trends. First, the results show that the effect of macroeconomic conditions on capital structure is counter-cyclical. Second, the effects of firm characteristics on capital structure can vary with macroeconomic conditions, although firm characteristics do not have a direct effect on capital structure. Third, the effects of firm characteristics on capital structure can vary across periods with changing economic growth trends. Finally, economic growth does not have a direct effect on capital structure. However, the effect of economic growth on capital structure can vary with macroeconomic conditions and across periods with changing economic growth trends. The findings of this study can be a helpful reference for financial managers, creditors, investors and government policy-makers in emerging countries.     

2018年建筑业发展统计分析

基于翔实的统计数据,对 2018 年中国建筑业发展的总体状况进行了分析。包括对建筑业增加值与国内生产总值、建筑业总产值与固定资产投资、建筑业从业人数与企业数量、劳动生产率、利润总额与产值利润率、签订合同总额与新签合同额、房屋建筑施工面积与竣工面积、对外承包工程等方面的分析。总结出 2018 年中国建筑业发展的 5 个特点:苏浙两省建筑业总产值继续雄踞龙头;新签合同额增速放缓;大部分地区跨省完成建筑业产值持续增长且增速加快;多数地区建筑业从业人数增加、劳动生产率提高;特、一级企业对行业发展贡献明显。     

Editorial

The relationship between construction output and economic growth has been well discussed by construction economists. Most of the previous studies found a positive correlation between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and various measures of construction output. However, cross‐sectional analysis was commonly adopted but longitudinal analysis has been called upon. Furthermore, recent research argued that non‐linear relationship between GDP and construction output exists because of different stages of economic development in different countries. They explained the phenomenon by means of the change of the growth rates of construction output at different stages of economic development, but the argument has not yet been rigorously tested. With the availability of long time‐series of data of Hong Kong construction industry, this paper attempts to test longitudinally the relationship between the real growth rate of construction output and the real growth rate of GDP. It was found that the growth rate of GDP led that of construction output, and as the growth rate of GDP increased, the growth rate of construction output was marginally diminishing. It agrees with the proposition that construction industry is relatively inefficient in productivity improvement and the accumulation of capital investment results in a marginally diminishing growth of construction output.     

Analysis of the causality links between the growth of the construction industry and the growth of the macro‐economy in Ghana

A vibrant construction industry in a developing country, that mobilizes human and local material resources in the development and maintenance of buildings, housing and physical infrastructure, is an important means to promote increased local employment and accelerate economic growth. Ghana, a country of about 22 million people, currently has one of the fastest growing economies in West Africa. The Government of Ghana (GOG) has recently set a target of annual economic growth rate of 8% and above, up from annual growth rates of 5–6% in the past five years (2001–05). It intends to use the agricultural sector as the major vehicle for achieving such high growth rates in order for the country to reach the status of a middle income country by 2015. Surprisingly, the construction industry was left out from the list of major growth drivers of the economy. We contend that with the construction industry currently making up the third largest sector of the economy, special attention should be given to this industry as one of the main drivers of economic growth in Ghana. Therefore we conducted a study to analyse the causality links between the growth in the construction industry and the growth in the macro‐economy of Ghana, measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), to ascertain whether the construction industry can be used to lead the entire economy on a growth path. The analysis was based on a simple Granger causality test using time series data from 1968 to 2004. We showed that growth in the construction industry Granger‐caused growth in GDP, with a three‐year lag. The construction industry needs to be considered as one of the major drivers of economic growth in Ghana.     

基于模糊推理的公共交通分担率预测研究

研究基于模糊推理建立公共交通分担率预测模型的方法。通过分析公共交通出行的影响因素,选择线网密度、国内生产总值、平均车速等十项指标作为影响因素,建立模糊层次结构模型。确定各因素的模糊规则,采用模糊推理预测公交分担率。并以黑龙江省某市交通数据进行预测,最后分析了影响因素与分担率水平的影响关系,应用得到了预期的效果。     

Forecasting construction tender price index in Hong Kong using vector error correction model

Reliable short‐ to medium‐term prediction of the tender price index (TPI) is crucial to construction stakeholders, and this has stimulated the interest of the research community to seek a more analytical method for TPI forecast. The purpose of this study is to establish an econometric model for accurately predicting the tender price movements based on a group of associated financial and macroeconomic variables. Applying Johansen’s method for multivariate cointegration analysis, the tender price was found to be cointegrated with the gross domestic product, construction output and building cost. A vector error correction (VEC) model imposing the cointegration restriction was then developed for the purpose of forecasting. The model was verified against various diagnostic statistical criteria and compared with the Box‐Jenkins and regression models. With a mean absolute percentage error for a three‐year ahead forecast at 2.9% level, the developed VEC model outperforms the Box‐Jenkins and regression models, and is proven to be efficient and reliable in forecasting the short‐ to medium‐term tender price movements. The model can assist estimators to predict the TPI pattern in advance, and it can also help the public sector in planning for the construction workload to improve the stability of the construction market. Although the VEC model developed focuses on the Hong Kong construction market, the econometric technique can be applied to modelling other economic variables.     

境外建设工程及国内其它行业质量检测监管的调研与启示

当前,建设工程检测行业在不断发展的同时也存在检测市场不规范的现象,政府质监部门在对检测机构、检测人员及检测行为监管尚存不足之处,需借鉴境外建设工程或国内其它行业质量检测监管措施,结合我国建设工程质量检测监管实际情况加以改进以适应市场发展的需要。通过分析当前我国建设工程质量检测监管中存在的主要问题,调研境外建设工程及国内其它行业的质量检测监管措施,归纳总结了可作为加强我国建设工程质量检测监管的借鉴启示之处。