Portfolio optimization of electricity generating resources in Kenya

Affordable and reliable electricity is a development priority, but many people in low-income countries continue to live without it. The main challenge to ensuring universal access to electricity is the energy trilemma: striking a balance between costs, security, and environmental sustainability. Kenya is one of the countries that face energy trilemma as the electricity demand expands. We use modern portfolio theory (MPT) from the finance sector to address this challenge by deriving a theoretical efficient frontier for electricity generation in Kenya. The study finds that although the current portfolio of electricity generation in Kenya is not optimal, it is possible to shift to an efficient portfolio that has lower costs, is diversified, and environmentally sustainable. We conclude that MPT addresses the energy trilemma and therefore, it can help in the planning of electricity generation in countries whose electricity sectors are still developing. Our study adds to the literature about the applicability of MPT in the electricity sector and proposes ways for Kenya to improve the electricity-generating portfolio. We anticipate that the results will encourage electricity sector planners to consider portfolio planning for electricity generation.     

Relation between electricity consumption and economic growth in Karnataka,India: An aggregate and sector-wise analysis

Karnataka is a highly progressive and rapidly growing state in India, with huge potential for industrial growth, however, it grapples with power deficits and other problems in electricity sector, which make it a good case study for Indian electricity sector. Given the importance of electricity in the urbanisation and growth process, the paper analyses the electricity consumption trend in Karnataka, examine its causality with economic growth at aggregate and sectoral levels using Granger causality test, and forecast the future electricity consumption applying Holt-Winters smoothening (no seasonality) technique. The general trend reflects higher consumption by the agricultural consumers, compared to the revenue-generating 'Industries' and 'Commercial' categories, mainly due to the policy of de-metering and providing 'free' power to agricultural consumers since late 1980s. The Granger causality tests reveal that there is no causality relation (neutrality hypothesis) between electricity consumption and economic growth in Karnataka, for total, agricultural and industrial consumption. This basically stems from the inaccurate measurements of agricultural consumption, higher dependence on captive generation, and poor quality grid supply. Finally, electricity consumption is predicted to be around 69,347 GW h by 2019−20. Future policies should focus on universal metering, reducing cross-subsidization, supplying good quality and reliable power to all sectors, and economical planning of resource-mix to achieve adequate, productive and efficient electricity consumption.     

The co-benefits of California offshore wind electricity

California has set forth an ambitious goal of generating all its electricity from carbon-free technologies by 2045. Offshore wind (OSW) presents several attractive system, economic, and environmental attributes to help the state achieve these goals. Inclusion of OSW into the clean electricity generation portfolio could contribute significantly to total resource cost savings. In addition, OSW offers several major co-benefits. Its high and consistent capacity factor and generation time profile complements that of solar and helps enhance renewable electricity generation reliability. OSW could also be instrumental in early retirement of costly and pollution-heavy natural gas plants and lead to substantial job creations. Moreover, California could reap additional economic co-benefits from the development of a local wind energy industry. Additionally, OSW has the potential to advance environmental justice through reduction of ordinary air pollutants in urban areas and by bringing economic opportunities to lagging areas. At the same time, there are multiple challenges that must be addressed for OSW to reach its full potential. Our analysis is intended also to serve as a template for studies elsewhere by providing a comprehensive framework for estimating co-benefits, taking account of important local conditions, and identification of challenges and how they might be overcome.     

Revisiting private participation,governance and electricity sector performance in Latin America

This paper revisits the relationship between private participation, regulatory governance and the performance of the electricity sector in 18 Latin American countries over the last five decades. Private investment flows have been consistent overtime, providing around 55 % of total electricity investment in the region. We examine the nature, and resultant performance outcomes, of increased private sector involvement in electricity sub-sectors, including generation capacity, non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE), electricity access, electricity losses, and affordability. The results suggest that private investment and the quality of regulatory governance are positively associated with better performance of the electricity sector. Our long-term examination suggests that private investments strongly contribute to enhancing the quality and efficiency of the electricity sector's performance by increasing generation capacity, increasing the share of renewable energy, increasing access, and reducing electricity losses. Affordability of electricity services also improved in countries with high private participation, while subsidies to the electricity sector declined considerably. These outcomes seem to be enabled and reinforced by independent regulatory governance.     

Forecasting electricity consumption: A comparison of regression analysis,neural networks and least squares support vector machines

Accurate electricity consumption forecast has primary importance in the energy planning of the developing countries. During the last decade several new techniques are being used for electricity consumption planning to accurately predict the future electricity consumption needs. Support vector machines (SVMs) and least squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) are new techniques being adopted for energy consumption forecasting. In this study, the LS-SVM is implemented for the prediction of electricity energy consumption of Turkey. In addition to the traditional regression analysis and artificial neural networks (ANNs) are considered. In the models, gross electricity generation, installed capacity, total subscribership and population are used as independent variables using historical data from 1970 to 2009. Forecasting results are compared using diverse performance criteria in this study with each other. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is realized for determining the specificity and sensitivity of the empirical results. The results indicate that the proposed LS-SVM model is an accurate and a quick prediction method.     

电力竞价上网智能决策支持系统

根据电厂竞价上网的特点,基于大系统控制论思想,采用人工智能技术和博弈论方法建立了电力市场发电侧的电力竞价上网智能决策支持系统。采用数学模型方法建立发电成本计算模型;采用数学模型与知识模型相结合的方法建立发电成本构成分析与优化模型;采用3层前馈人工神经网络建立网上电价预测模型,用遗传算法确定网络连接权,以优化神经网络模型的学习过程;采用博弈论方法建立上网电力报价模型。在建立这些模型的同时,需要构建相应的数据库和知识库系统,如企业生产与管理数据库系统、生产优化知识库系统和电网数据库系统等。     

面向产消用户的售电公司发-用电多元电力套餐优化EI北大核心CSCD

新型电力系统背景下的产消用户不断发展,这给售电公司在设计多元化套餐吸引产消用户以及利用发电资源方面带来挑战。充分考虑产消用户的发用电特点,提出售电公司面向产消用户的发-用电多元电力套餐优化策略。设计2种发电套餐、3种用电套餐和2种发用电捆绑套餐;分别以考虑风险的售电公司综合收益最大和产消用户的综合满意度最高为目标函数,构建主方的购售电决策模型和从方的套餐选择模型,阐述售电公司和产消用户的主从博弈互动过程;提出博弈过程中的套餐组合策略,以提高套餐的多样性;采用粒子群优化算法和CPLEX优化软件求解模型的纳什均衡解。算例分析结果表明,博弈模型具有较好的收敛性,所提多元发-用电套餐和套餐组合策略能够适应不同类型的产消用户,提高产消用户的综合满意度。     

Examining the nonlinear impact of coal and oil-based electricity production on CO2 emissions in India

Building upon the present growth paradigm of India, the authors of this paper examined the impact of coal-fired and oil-fired electrical power generation on CO₂ emissions in India for the period of 1976−2016. The simulation results confirmed that the upside shocks in coal-fired electricity will contribute considerably to increase the pollution level in the long run. Contrarily, the impact of downside variations was found to be negative and significant.     

Optimization of Lebanon's power generation scenarios to meet the electricity demand by 2030

Presently, Lebanon provides 95 % of the primary energy electricity power generation by using fuel-oil used in thermal power plants. To meet the population needs, private generators are also used in all the country and they represent the third of total electricity production. The challenges over the future development of the Lebanese electric sector are economic and environmental. This is why currently, the energy policy makers aim to diversify the national electricity generation mix in the energy planning strategy and to introduce low-carbon technologies. The complexity of these challenges in the particular Lebanese context has motivated our study which aims to recommend policies to develop the optimal electricity generation scenario by 2030. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate different scenarios reflecting different combinations of technologies by 2030. This is achieved by using an excel tool “Excel Solver Optimization Calculator” which makes possible the interaction of various inputs to produce a least-cost generation mix. The main results focus on the least-cost electricity generation portfolio, total investment required to generate electricity, level of energy independence and carbon emissions. Many policy choices could be feasible and very advantageous for Lebanon if renewable energies are deployed massively. However, this requires policies that support the massive use of renewable energy technologies in the mix.     

Extracting issues significant to valuing electricity from small photovoltaic systems using quantitative content analysis

The feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme for small photovoltaic (PV) systems is fast approaching its closure or expiration in many countries. One of the issues after the closure of the FIT will be to determine the selling price of the surplus PV generation, for which valuing the surplus PV generation is essential. This study extracted issues significant to valuing electricity from PV systems by using quantitative content analysis in four states in Australia, where the local economic regulator conventionally estimates the value. Through quantitative content analysis, the region-specific issues relevant to each state were extracted. For example, forecast of wholesale price is the most significant issue in Victoria, where the methodology was not clear and the avoided wholesale cost tends to be overestimated. Similarly, in New South Wales and Queensland, merit order effect was the most significant issue among the stakeholders, where PV installation was higher than that in the other states. Thus, the proposed analysis method can be used to extract the issues relevant to valuing the electricity from PV generation.     

Measuring “Reasonably Reliable” access to electricity services

While the electricity access rate is regularly measured in most countries, there are no routinely tracked metrics that measure reliability. This paper presents a new approach that: (1) aggregates all available country data on reliability; (2) defines a minimum threshold metric for ‘reasonable reliability’; and (3) estimates the number of people without ‘reasonably reliable’ electricity services. We estimate the number of people without access to reliable electricity is approximately 3.5 billion. This new metric provides a more granular view of the enormous energy access gap globally, and insights for future investment and policy decisions.     

A critical review of the franchisee model in the electricity distribution sector in India

Under government ownership, the electricity distribution sector in India is facing a huge financial crisis. The distribution franchisee model has been introduced in urban areas as a means of enabling private sector participation without abandoning government ownership. A critical analysis of this DF model suggests some avenues for future modifications.     

Targeting sustainable development in Pakistan through planning of integrated energy resources for electricity generation

Three models for the projection of long-term electricity generation for Pakistan are developed in this paper. Baseline (BL), Coal and Renewable Energy (RE) scenarios are used to analyze current and future electricity generation. From an environmental perspective, both the BL and RE scenarios are found to be superior to the Coal scenario, but a cost-benefit analysis indicates that the RE scenario is most expensive though it brings the benefit of effectively reducing dependence on imports of primary fuel.     

全球电力贸易网络结构分析

由于日益增多的国际电力交易将各国紧密地连接在一起,分析全球电力贸易网络的结构有助于识别各国重要性,进而为增强全球电力网络的可靠性和弹性提供决策支持。利用复杂网络理论分析了1990-2010年间国际电力贸易网络的演化结构及特征,结果表明不同于普通商品交易,国际电力交易具有地区性特征,可分为多个地区子网络。其中,欧亚子网络历史最久、规模最大。因此,着重分析了欧亚电力贸易网络的网络性质和群落结构特点。另外,分析各国发电CO2排放因子与输入电力排放因子的差距,发现当前国际电力贸易在优化电力供需的同时尚且没有带来正面的CO2减排效果。     

计及负所得电量的并网辅助服务优化激励模型

基于成本和电量之间的函数关系提出辅助服务管理中负所得电量的概念及其补偿方法.针对现行并网电厂辅助服务补偿不足的问题,采用激励相容理论表述发电量预期并利用负所得电量进行补偿,进一步根据补偿电量与变动成本之间变化趋势定义弹性指标,精细化评价了辅助服务供应对电厂的影响,并在此基础上通过Pareto寻优引导节能高效的安全性运营...     

德国新能源发电发展和运行研究

近年来,德国新能源发展迅猛,新能源发电量占比逐年提高。分析德国各类电源装机、发电量和发电小时数变化,揭示德国近十年来的能源转型历程。分析德国及其与周边国家联络线电量和电价的变化情况,研究新能源发展给德国电价带来的影响。通过典型周电力系统运行数据,分析德国电力系统应对新能源功率波动性的措施。德国新能源发展和运行实践表明,新能源优化运行和最大化消纳主要取决于灵活的电力现货市场机制、强有力的电源调节能力和坚强的跨国输电网络,同时,新能源的发展将对全社会电力生产成本和电价产生重大影响。     

Applying portfolio theory-based modified ABC to electricity generation mix

Portfolio theory has found its model in numerous engineering applications for optimizing the electrical generation mix of an electricity area. However, to have better performance of this theory, this paper presents a new heuristic method as known modified artificial bee colony (MABC) to portfolio optimization problem. Moreover, we consider both dis-patchable and non-dis-patchable constrains variables and energy sources. Note that the proposed MABC method uses a Chaotic Local Search (CLS) to enhance the self searching ability of the original ABC algorithm. Resulting, in this paper a portfolio theory-based MABC model that explicitly distinguishes between electricity generation (energy), installed capacity (power) and actual instantaneous power delivery is proposed. Therefore, in this model, the uncertainties of wind power and ramp-up/down constrains of traditional power plants are correctly considered in the investment cost. The numerical results show the great potential of proposed model with lowest risk on generation cost. Also, they are show that MABC approach is successful in portfolio optimization.     

Decentralized electricity storage evaluation in the Portuguese context

Portugal has made great progress in implementing renewable energy systems (RES) to use its endogenous renewable resources. As the cost of renewable energy generation is decreasing, mainly for photovoltaic energy, a significant increase in its production is expected, in particular at the local and domestic levels. Yet, much investment and development is still needed to fulfil the goals for renewable energy generation defined by the Portuguese government and the European Union, in order to decarbonize energy generation and reduce energy dependence. Besides limitations in the installed capacity, the full potential of existing and future RES is not fulfilled, mainly due to imbalances in supply and demand, resulting from the varying climatic conditions and limited energy storage capacity. Although some investment was made in large scale Energy Storage Systems (ESS), especially pumped hydro, distributed energy storage (DES), in particular for stationary domestic storage appliances, have received little attention from decision makers. When properly defined, designed and implemented, they can contribute to increase the efficiency of existing and future RES and the capacity factor. Thus, in this work the questions regarding the implementation of DES are analysed. The main criteria that have to be considered when selecting the proper storage technology for DES are defined, taking into account information and data from current legislation and/or strategic plans and goals, and the technical and scientific literature, in order to support decision making and policy definition at different levels. The proposed application of the various criteria leads to the conclusion that for DES, electrochemical based ESS are the most adequate, among which Li ion batteries and redox flow batteries, particularly suited for local and/or household applications. The current policies sought out for Portugal are also examined in order to identify which aspects should be improved to promote and increase the relevance of DES in the Portuguese energy mix, and it is concluded that specific policies and support are needed to increase the relevance of decentralized electricity storage systems.     

北欧电力市场发展概况

指出北欧国家电力市场改革平稳发展,实现了国内、国间资源优化配置,形成了世界上第1个跨国电力市场.北欧四国逐步建成了较为完备的电力交易体系(Nordic Pool),为市场主体提供了灵活的交易方式、丰富的交易品种,满足了市场多样化的需求,提高了市场运行的效率.对北欧电力市场的发展、组织结构、交易类型等进行介绍.     

Disaggregating growth in future retail electricity rates

The retail rate impacts of a number of emerging trends (e.g., rapid deployment of electric vehicles and storage, transmission build-out for large-scale renewables deployment, and grid modernization) are unknown. Importantly, decision-makers are concerned about the potential future rate impacts on energy affordability and equity. We disaggregate the key drivers of retail electricity rates and assess their impacts on future rate growth considering their interactions and uncertainty. Specifically, we develop ranges of future cost growth for a generic investor-owned and vertically-integrated electric utility representing typical cost and operating characteristics. The rate driver growth rate ranges are applied in isolation and jointly to quantify the uncertainty and variability in future retail electricity rates. The results identify what rate drivers and factors may minimize and/or decrease uncertainty in retail rate growth and their linkages to industry trends.