应急物资保障决策支持系统研究与设计

文中阐述了一种应急物资保障决策支持系统，介绍了系统的数据库系统、模型库系统、方法库系统和人机交互界面的设计，该系统能够进行应急物资信息查询、保障计划拟制和提供决策支持，为应急物资保障提供快速、有效的决策支持。     

软件交流

根据大中型企业物资管理决策的需要,系统分为结构化决策、半结构化决策和非结构化决策三种类型决策。系统分别对物资采购、消耗、库存以及市场价格等问题进行了演释、分析、选择、比较、优化、仿真等对话式分析决策,为用户提供图文并存输出。系统同时采用了“积木式”模型更新。目前已开发应用的模型有:多目标预测模型、物资需求和订货计划编     

基于电子海图显示与信息系统的防避台智能辅助决策系统

当前,船舶锚泊防台和航行中机动避台主要以人工作业为主,存在诸多问题,容易导致严重的防避台事故.从实际需求分析出发,介绍了防避台智能辅助决策系统以电子海图显示与信息系统(ECDIS)为基础平台的设计思想及其相应结构体系,利用BP神经网络等技术研制并开发了台风信息预处理模块、防台部署辅助决策模块、机动避台辅助决策模块、可视化显示模块等多个主模块,并对各主要模块的功能分别进行了论述.通过实际的运用结果表明该研究对防避台智能辅助决策系统的完善有较实用的价值.     

基于Agent的导弹兵力行动方案辅助决策的系统建模

自主规划、适应环境和学习功能等多项智能行为是现代战争的决策活动对辅助决策系统的基本要求.以常规导弹兵力行动方案的辅助决策为背景,提出了基于多Agent的系统总体设计,确立了系统构成的核心:机动方案Agent、测试方案Agent、运输方案Agent、保障方案Agent、,集成方案Agent以及任务管理Agent,建立了各类Agent的结构模型,并阐述了其功能.     

后勤物资信息系统的应用

医院后勤物资工作是整个医院正常运营的重要保证.随着医院的不断发展,规模扩大、设备的添置、人员的增加,拥有计算机信息化管理系统来进行管理日益庞大的物资使物资子系统保阵医院系统的惯性运行,变记帐抄报手工操作为电脑自动化信息管理.本文就已实施的物资管理系统进行分析和讨论,对具体功能的实现进行分析与总结,以便在今后的工作中加强与完善系统使之更好的提供支持和决策.     

一致性约束下末制导系统最大可容许模式决策延迟

对于大机动目标拦截问题, 模式决策器是基于逻辑的集成估计导引系统(Integrated estimation and guidance, IEG)中的一个重要组件. 为了保证系统的估计精度和制导性能, 模式决策器的模式延迟应尽可能小. 本文针对末制导场景, 首先推导了离散时间系统零控脱靶量的估计误差模型, 然后在一致性约束条件下给出了系统最大可容许模式决策延迟的数值计算方法. 本文的研究结果可为IEG系统中模式决策器的设计提供指标参考.     

评价波动对石化项目采购决策的影响

石化项目物资采购决策的本质是供应商选择,主要依据企业按照物资供应商一定评价标准所得到的评价考核结果.由于物资供应商评价标准中的主观因素和时间、环境因素可能导致评价考核结果变化,使得物资供应商的评价会产生波动,导致不同的物资供应商评价结果,从而影响采购决策.为了研究物资供应商评价波动对采购决策的影响程度,以典型石化项目—乙烯裂解炉项目物资采购为例,提出了供应商量化考核因子的变量,建立以采购为主的供应链数学规划模型.通过定量分析,对比不同物资供应商量化考核因子的波动对供应商选择的影响大小,识别出对供应商量化考核因子变化更为敏感的物资类别,为做好石化项目物资供应商选择和采购决策提供有益参考.     

基于改进SOS算法的UCAV鲁棒机动决策研究

针对无人作战飞机自主空战机动决策问题,提出了一种鲁棒机动决策方法。设计了反映空战态势的鲁棒隶属函数,并基于此设计鲁棒多目标决策函数;针对动作库在机动决策中的不完备性与传统优化方法求解时效性缺陷,运用基于自适应和精英反向学习策略改进的共生生物算法,对控制量进行优化进而完成机动决策;仿真结果表明,鲁棒机动决策结果更具优势且改进算法求解具有实时性,满足机动决策需求。     

基于威胁度评估的机器人神经动态避撞策略

针对动态环境下移动机器人的自主碰撞规避,构建了包含感知模块、威胁规避模块和目标牵引模块的神经避撞决策系统.通过深入分析采样周期内威胁与机器人的相对速度、激光雷达有效探测距离以及威胁预测方位等因素对避撞机动效率和安全性的影响,对机器人各机动速度区的危险等级进行划分并建立相应的威胁度定量评估模型,再将其引入局部决策器以修正各节点的输出,进而提出了一种基于机动策略威胁度评估的神经动态避撞方法.仿真实验表明,相比于传统的神经导航,所提方法不仅优化了规避路径,而且代价更小.     

基于三支决策的飞机空战机动决策方法

为了提高战斗机在信息不充足条件下的机动决策能力,提出一种基于三支决策的飞机空战机动决策方法.首先,使用三支决策意图识别模型对目标意图进行识别;其次,将目标的作战意图因素引入到威胁评估中后,结合目标的威胁程度,提出基于三支决策的机动决策权重因子动态调整法;最后,使用模糊逻辑构建机动决策因子评价函数,并利用权值动态调整策略...     

Investigation of decision making process: a hypermedia approach

Research in decision making has concentrated mainly on the decision outcome (choice) rather than on the process of the decision making. This pattern is primarily due to the lack of an acceptable unobtrusive tool for investigation of the decision process. Further, the lack of a consistent decision aid in empirical works has hindered the comparison of results. The purpose of this paper is to present a flexible and adaptable computer-based system for empirical examination of information processing. The main thrust of the proposed system is to provide guidelines to the restrictive/channeling approach to system design. This system can be easily modified to suit different experimental research requirements. It should support more realistic decision tasks, which often are criticized in decision experiments. Furthermore, availability of this system should encourage more research work on the process of decision making. The nature of this support system is linked to the literature, and specifications and components of the system are provided.     

Investigation of decision making process: a hypermedia approach

Research in decision making has concentrated mainly on the decision outcome (choice) rather than on the process of the decision making. This pattern is primarily due to the lack of an acceptable unobtrusive tool for investigation of the decision process. Further, the lack of a consistent decision aid in empirical works has hindered the comparison of results. The purpose of this paper is to present a flexible and adaptable computer-based system for empirical examination of information processing. The main thrust of the proposed system is to provide guidelines to the restrictive/channeling approach to system design. This system can be easily modified to suit different experimental research requirements. It should support more realistic decision tasks, which often are criticized in decision experiments. Furthermore, availability of this system should encourage more research work on the process of decision making. The nature of this support system is linked to the literature, and specifications and components of the system are provided.     

The methodology of multiple-criteria decision making in the optimization of an urban transportation system: case study of Poznań City in Poland

The methodology of multiple-criteria decision making applied to the optimization of an urban transportation system is presented in the paper. Three mathematical models of different complexity are constructed to optimize the allocation of vehicles to certain routes in a mass transit system. All models take into account both passengers' and operator's objectives. The optimization problems are formulated in terms of multiple-objective fuzzy linear programming and multiple-objective non-linear programming. The sensitivity and precision analysis of the models is carried out. Two interactive multi-objective mathematical programming procedures are utilized to solve the problems. They generate samples of Pareto-optimal compromise solutions and provide the decision maker (DM)with an effective tool that supports him/her in the decision making process. Finally, the DM selects the solution that best fits his or her expectations.     

基于CXBR的反潜水面舰艇CGF决策方法研究

智能决策是计算机生成兵力的重点和难点，CXBR决策方法由于其简单实用且兼有有限状态机和专家系统的优点近来在国外得到了推广和应用。该文阐述了CXBR决策方法的思想及方法步骤，并从水面舰艇反潜作战的实际出发，将CXBR的决策方法与专家系统、模糊推理和数据库技术相结合，对水面舰艇反潜的战斗行为进行了合理的划分，构造了作战想定编辑器，初步建立了人工干预和自动决策相结合、灵活性、扩展性强的多级决策支持框架，很好地实现了反潜舰艇CGF的行为自治。     

GRAP: Grey risk assessment based on projection in ad hoc networks

In this paper, we discuss the risk assessment of ad hoc networks, which have highly dynamic topology, open access of wireless channels, and vulnerable data communication. Conventional risk assessment methods are subjective and unreliable as some nodes reveal little information, and the quantity of samples is limited in ad hoc networks. To solve this problem, we propose a GRAP method, which includes grey relational projection (GRP), grey prediction, and grey decision making. Our scheme is designed to assess nodes’ risk under limited circumstances such as small number of samples, incomplete information and lack of experience. Compared with principal component analysis, GRAP has demonstrated better performance and more flexible characteristics. To further the practicability of this method, we utilize a dynamic grey prediction, which shows high accuracy for decision making. In our scheme, four major nodes’ attributes are selected, and the experiment results suggest that our model is more effective and efficient for risk assessment than principal component analysis in ad hoc networks.     

多传感器基于动态时空特性软硬协作决策的目标检测研究

针对多传感器系统中目标检测时检测精度与效率的矛盾问题,研究了一种具有协同合作决策功能的目标检测算法及其传感器设计方案。首先将多传感器系统依据时域、空域和频域给出三维定义描述,分析了时空动态特性,其次依据二元检验和目标优化检测分析了软决策和硬决策在目标检测时变化规律,建立了一种基于协同合作的目标检测决策机制,最后给出了基于动态时空特性软硬协作决策的目标检测及其传感器头结构设计方案。实验表明,所提目标检测方案在检测精度、检测效率、资源利用率和覆盖率等方面具有明显优势。     

基于效能评估的导弹战术决策支持技术初探

美国"战斧Ⅳ"巡航导弹可以用于打击地面战术目标和移动目标,扩展了战术打击能力.针对具备类似作战能力的导弹,为了能够给战术指挥员提供有效的辅助决策支持,以便对飞行中的导弹进行战术调整和目标重新瞄准,讨论了基于效能评估来辅助战术决策的思想和方法.首先从分析导弹武器系统作战效能评估应具备的功能入手,建立了导弹武器系统效能的评估指标体系,并详细描述了战术机动性能指标的计算方法,最后,通过战术想定和作战模拟验证,得到的结论是,采用这种辅助决策技术可以显著提高导弹的作战效能.     

Group behaviour control on dynamically reconfigurable robotic system

Recently, distributed autonomous robotic system (DARS) has been attracting many researchers' interests. As one of the model of DARS, we proposed cellular robotic system (CEBOT). Like an organism of a living thing, the CEBOT is composed of a number of heterogeneous robotic units called 'cells'. Based on the concept of CEBOT, we have studied a flexible and adaptive multiple robot system by using a production transit model. In this model, we assume a number of mobile robots that have a few kinds of manipulators and variation of transportation ability according to the combination of the different manipulation functions. We suppose that by changing its combination appropriately against environment changes, the adaptability of the system can be improved. At first, we address the combination making and show the advantage of the proposed system. Generally, in a swarm-type robot system, we can find some sort of collective phenomena that are not defined in each robot's behaviour decision process. Oscillation is one of the typical collective properties emerged in DARS. In our model, the occurrence of oscillation affects the performance of transportation. Therefore, we need a way of controlling such collective property as well as the appropriate combination making. In this paper, we show the advantage of the dynamically reconfigurable robotic system and a control method of collective property through a computational simulation.     

非常规突发事件应急决策冲突消解协调方法

针对应急决策冲突性特点和难以形成高一致性决策方案的问题,分析了应急群体决策冲突产生的原因,构建了应急决策冲突消解协调框架,提出了应急决策群体冲突测度方法,以及应急决策冲突消解模型和方法,形成了非常规突发事件应急决策冲突消解协调机制,使应急群决策冲突逐渐收敛以获得冲突程度足够低的应急决策方案。最后通过算例分析验证了冲突消解协调方法和机制的有效性。     

Deriving the personalized individual semantics of linguistic information from flexible linguistic preference relations

In group decision making, flexible linguistic preference relations (FLPRs) are very useful with the pairwise comparisons taking the form of flexible linguistic expressions (FLEs). Due to the fact that different decision makers have different understandings of words, this paper investigates the personalized individual semantics (PISs) of the linguistic information in FLPRs. Two optimization models are constructed to compute a linguistic distribution which is closest to an incomplete FLE. The FLPRs are transformed into fuzzy preference relations by using optimization models which maximize consistency and consensus of the fuzzy preference relations. The PISs of linguistic terms and subsets of the linguistic term set are obtained in this process. A group decision making model based on FLPRs is presented and a green supplier selection problem in automotive industry is solved by using the proposed model. The comparative analysis is presented to show the feasibility of the group decision making model.