Weibull分布下基于MLE的红外发光二极管寿命预测

为了对红外发光二极管(LED)恒定及步进应力加速寿命试验的数据进行统计分析,应用Weibull分布函数描述了其寿命分布,利用极大似然法(MLE)及其迭代流程图估计出形状参数和尺度参数,通过最小二乘法确定了红外LED加速寿命方程,对红外LED寿命是否符合威布尔分布进行了Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验,并利用自行开发的寿命预测软件计算出平均寿命和中位寿命。数值结果表明,红外LED的寿命服从Weibull分布,加速寿命方程符合逆幂定律,所估计出的红外LED的寿命对生产厂商和用户有很强的指导意义。     

恒加试验下LED照明灯的三参数Weibull分布的参数估计

三参数Weibull分布拟合LED照明灯寿命的优势较为明显,但要得到三参数Weibull分布参数较为精确的点估计较为困难。目前常用的参数估计方法有极大似然法、矩估计法、Bayes估计法等,由于其计算的方程复杂,导致软件编程繁琐,不易掌握,而且也不一定能得到参数估计。鉴于此,文章针对恒加试验提出一种简便地求解三参数Weibull分布参数估计的方法,该方法不涉及超越方程的求解问题,软件编程相当简单,且统计思想清晰。通过LED照明灯恒加试验下的几个案例数据说明方法的应用,并与已有的方法做了对比分析。     

Weibull分布下基于MAM的白光OLED寿命预测

为了得到白光有机发光二极管(OLED)寿命信息,降低试验成本,开展了三组恒定电流应力加速寿命试验。采用Weibull函数描述其寿命分布,基于图分析法(MAM)和MATLAB绘制的Weibull概率双坐标纸,描点作图并估计形状参数和尺度参数,实现了白光OLED的寿命预测。数值结果表明,白光OLED样品在各加速应力下失效机理保持不变,加速模型满足逆幂定律,精确计算的加速参数使得OLED寿命快速估算成为可能。     

对数正态分布下基于MLE的红外LED的寿命预测

为了获得红外LED的寿命信息,采用对数正态分布函数描述了红外LED的寿命分布,利用极大似然法(MLE)估计了对数均值和对数标准差,完成了恒定及步进应力实验数据的统计和分析,并自行开发了寿命预测软件。数值结果表明,红外LED的寿命服从对数正态分布,其加速模型符合逆幂定律。精确计算的加速参数使得快速估算红外LED寿命成为可能。     

基于LSM的红外LED加速寿命试验数据的统计分析

利用最小二乘法(LSM)完成了红外发光二极管(LED)恒定与步进应力加速寿命试验数据的统计分析,并自行开发了可视界面和通用性强的寿命预测软件.数值结果证实了红外LED的寿命服从对数正态分布以及加速寿命方程完全符合逆幂定律,并精确地计算出预测该器件寿命所用到的关键性参数,从而使其在很短的时间(1000h)内估算寿命成为可能.     

真空荧光显示屏恒定及步进应力加速寿命试验的研究

为了解决在较短的时间内预测真空荧光显示屏（VFD）寿命的问题,降低寿命预测成本,通过加大灯丝温度进行了恒定和步进应力相组合的加速寿命试验,研究制定了其加速寿命试验的设计方案。应用威布尔分布函数描述其寿命分布,利用最小二乘法完成了试验数据的统计和分析,并开发了寿命预测软件。研究结果表明．试验设计方案是正确可行的,VFD的寿命服从威布尔分布,其加速模型符合阿伦尼斯方程,加速参数的精确计算确保以后在很短的时间内便可估算出VFD在正常应力下的寿命。     

威布尔分布下VFD恒定应力加速寿命试验与统计分析

为了精确地估计真空荧光显示器(VFD)的可靠性寿命,节省试验测试时间,通过建立加速寿命试验模型开展了4组恒定应力加速寿命试验,采用威布尔函数描述VFD寿命分布,利用最小二乘法(LSM)估计威布尔参数,完成了试验数据的统计分析,并自行开发了寿命预测软件,确定了加速寿命方程,实现了VFD的寿命估计。数值结果表明,试验设计方案是正确可行的,VFD的寿命服从威布尔分布,其加速模型符合线性阿伦尼斯方程,每个加速应力水平下VFD的失效机理不变,精确计算出的VFD寿命对其生产厂商和技术人员具有重要的指导意义。     

基于BRM的白光OLED恒定与步进应力加速寿命试验研究

为了获得白光OLED的寿命信息,通过加大电流应力开展了二组恒定和一组步进应力相组合的加速寿命试验。采用威布尔函数描述白光OLED的寿命分布,利用双线性回归法(BRM)估计出威布尔参数,确定了加速寿命方程,对白光OLED寿命是否符合威布尔分布进行了Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验,并利用自行开发的寿命预测软件计算出平均寿命和中位寿命。数值结果表明,恒定步进应力加速寿命试验方案是切实可行的,白光OLED的寿命服从威布尔分布,寿命应力关系满足线性Arrhenius方程,精确计算的加速参数可实现在短时间内OLED寿命的预测。     

基于MAM的白光OLED恒定应力加速寿命试验研究

为了短时间内获得白光有机发光显示器(OLED)的可靠性寿命信息,通过对其开展三组恒定电流应力加速寿命试验采集样品失效试验数据,应用对数正态分布函数描述白光OLED的寿命分布。在图分析法(MAM)的基础上,基于自行开发的寿命预测软件,绘制了对数正态概率双坐标纸,计算出白光OLED的平均寿命和中位寿命。数值结果表明,白光OLED寿命服从对数正态分布,加速寿命方程符合逆幂定律,精确计算的加速参数使得对其寿命的快速估算成为可能。结果可为生产厂商和用户提供参考和指导。     

对数正态分布下基于MAM的VFD加速寿命试验研究

为了在较短时间内掌握真空荧光显示器(VFD)的寿命信息,节省寿命试验时间,通过开展两组恒定应力加速寿命试验和一组步进应力加速寿命试验,采用对数正态分布函数描述VFD的寿命分布,在图分析法(MAM)的基础上,基于MATLAB软件强大的计算和可视化绘图功能,绘制了对数正态概率双坐标纸,估计了对数均值和对数标准方差,完成了VFD恒定应力和步进应力加速寿命试验数据的统计和分析.结果表明,VFD寿命服从对数正态分布,其加速模型符合阿伦尼斯方程,基于MATLAB的图分析法来实现寿命数据处理是可行的,精确估算的加速参数使得快速预测VFD寿命成为可能.     

An improved modeling for life prediction of high-power white LED based on Weibull right approximation method

Aiming at precisely predicting the life of the high-power white light LED (HPWLED), a three-parameter Weibull function and the right approximation method were employed to establish the luminance degradation model. The lumen maintenance data collected according to the IES LM-80-08 lumen maintenance test standard were fitted with and without error corrections, and the pseudo failure time of each HPWLED sample was extrapolated. The statistical analysis on the failure time was achieved by using Weibull distribution, normal distribution, lognormal distribution and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Then the life information was acquired. The results indicate that Weibull right approximation luminance degradation model (WRALDM) accurately reflects the variation of the lumen law with time. The failure time is accurately obtained. The best life distributions before and after the error correction to the lumen maintenance data are identified, based on AIC, as Weibull distribution and lognormal distribution, respectively. It is further confirmed by comparing the widths of life confidence interval and the life provided by the IES TM-21-11 method that the HPWLED life using WRALDM has a better accuracy. The optimized model provides researchers and manufacturers with significant guidelines for the further development of life prediction methodology.     

The establishment of reliability model for LED lamps

In order to verify which of the distributions and established methods of reliability model are more suitable for the analysis of the accelerated aging of LED lamp, three established methods (approximate method, analytical method and two-stage method) of reliability model are used to analyze the experimental data under the condition of the Weibull distribution and Lognormal distribution, in this paper. Ten LED lamps are selected for the accelerated aging experiment and the luminous fluxes are measured at an accelerated aging temperature. AIC information criterion is adopted in the evaluation of the models. The results show that the accuracies of the analytical method and the two-stage method are higher than that of the approximation method, with the widths of confidence intervals of unknown parameters of the reliability model being the smallest for the two-stage method. In a comparison between the two types of distributions, the accuracies are nearly identical.     

基于LSM的LED寿命的计算与分析

准确地对LED寿命进行估计是十分必要的。通过加速寿命的试验就可以得到产品性能指标和可靠性指标的估计,从而了解产品的质量。其方法则是应用威布尔分布描述红外LED的寿命,采用最小二乘法,估计出威布尔参数,对各应力下的数据拟合直线,实现寿命图,并完成试验数据的统计和分析,算出其平均寿命和可靠寿命。     

Accelerated Life Testing?Step-Stress Models and Data Analyses

This paper presents statistical models and methods for analyzing accelerated life-test data from step-stress tests. Maximum likelihood methods provide estimates of the parameters of such models, the life distribution under constant stress, and other information. While the methods are applied to the Weibull distribution and inverse power law, they apply to many other accelerated life test models. These methods are illustrated with step-stress data on time to breakdown of an electrical insulation.