The political economy of flood management reform in China

Abstract

This article examines the political economy factors that are likely to shape China’s attempts to reform its approach to managing floods, particularly by implementing integrated flood risk management (IFRM). IFRM emphasizes the use of structural and non-structural measures to reduce flood risk, rather than simply seeking to control flooding. For China, reducing flood risk is increasingly important in light of urbanization and climate change. However, a number of political economy issues, especially the division of power between central and local levels of government, create considerable challenges for flood management reform. This article examines China’s approach to implementing IFRM in light of existing political economy constraints and the institutional framework for flood management. It argues that effective flood management reform requires addressing common challenges, including interjurisdictional and intersectoral coordination and stakeholder participation.     

英国的洪水风险管理

为了减少洪水造成的破坏和损失，近年来世界各国的洪水管理已从单一的防洪工程向洪水风险管理转变。除了能进行有效的洪水防御外，洪水风险管理还被认为是维持生物多样性、河流及海岸生态系统的重要手段。回顾了英国的洪水风险管理及其组成体系，并分析讨论了未来可能面临的问题及应对措施。结果表明，随着全球气候变化及社会经济发展，洪水发生的频率及其影响正在增加。因此，如何全面综合考虑降雨、径流、河流、洪泛区以及人类活动、社会经济规划、发展和管理等诸多因素是实施洪水风险管理面临的重要课题。     

洪水灾害风险管理的理论框架探讨

洪水灾害管理是一项复杂的系统工程，在防洪减灾工程理论与实践中具有重要意义。根据洪水灾害风险的形成机制，提出并系统地阐述了由洪水灾害危险性，洪水灾害易损性和洪水灾害灾情组成的洪水灾害风险结构，在该风险结构基础上把洪水灾害风险管理的理论框架进一步展开为洪水灾害危险性分析，洪水灾害易损性分析，洪水灾害灾情分析和洪水灾害风险决策分析4个具有相互联系的部分。     

我国洪水风险图编制技术标准化的探讨

洪水风险管理需要将工程和非工程措施结合起来,编制洪水风险图是非工程措施中降低洪水风险的重要手段之一.我国洪水风险图编制已经进入全国试点阶段,但至今还没有建立一套指导和规范洪水风险图编制的技术标准.本文结合我国的国情和流域特征,对我国洪水风险图编制中的基础资料、洪水泛滥模拟模型、洪灾损失评价模型以及风险图的表现内容等基本技术和方法的标准化进行了探讨,并提出了我国洪水风险图编制技术标准化和规范化过程中急需解决的问题.     

浅析水库设计洪水与风险管理

水库设计洪水就是在给定工程安全标准情况下某个典型洪水过程，设计洪水的频率特征表现的就是其水文风险。由于水文事件发生、发展的各个方面都存在不确定性，设计洪水过程也存在不确定性。设计洪水计算方法主要是可能最大降雨和水文频率法。水库的运行管理也是一种风险管理，总目标是降低或者分散风险，提高工程运行效率。     

太湖流域洪水风险管理实践与思考

从梳理流域水灾特性入手,针对最近20年太湖流域城镇化进程空前迅猛、洪涝风险特性发生了显著变化、防洪减灾面临新的巨大压力与挑战等问题,指出积极推进洪水风险管理是太湖流域全面提升水安全保障水平的必然选择和发展方向,总结了不同发展阶段的太湖流域洪水风险管理实践,分析了太湖流域洪水风险管理面临的新形势,并展望了未来太湖流域洪水风险管理的发展方向。     

Collective Capacity: Regional Information Sharing in Support of Floodplain Management

Abstract

An approach for assessing regional receptivity to flood risk reduction is presented, taking into account institutional, cultural, and technical capacities. Since floodplain boundaries often cross multiple jurisdictions it is important to view the management of flood hazards within a regional context. In order to be effective, mitigation strategies should include some measure of the social system itself. This is necessary to ensure that the proper measures are being applied to the proper community. Attempts to evaluate regional receptivity based on resident floodplain management practices are therefore provided, with emphasis placed on non-structural approaches to hazards mitigation. The Red River of the North, which straddles the US/Canadian border, was chosen as the study area of choice owed largely to its repeated history of extreme flood events in combination with a relatively advanced means of coping with them. In order to construct the risk reduction evaluation templates presented, cross-border communications patterns were assessed, expressed user needs for region-wide information sharing were consolidated, and potentially transferable functional areas were isolated. The results suggest a risk-sharing framework that is suited for performing inter-basin comparisons.     

洪水管理、风险评估和洪泛区区划

洪水风险评估包括洪峰、洪量、水位和洪水过程.从安全角度来看,洪水风险评估对于水电工程、防洪工程的设计和运行是十分重要的.洪水管理旨在最大限度地减少洪泛区的洪灾损失,因此根据洪水发生的量级和频率进行洪水风险评估、制作洪水风险图对于洪水管理至关重要.目前在印度采取的主要防洪措施有:进行堤坝溃决风险分析、发布洪水预警、制作洪水风险图或洪灾风险图等.根据洪灾风险评估确定不同的保险费用,并据此推行防洪保险计划,可能非常有助于洪泛区的区划工作.地形等高线图是进行洪泛区区划的前提条件.根据这些图集和洪水风险评估,洪泛区能够按照区划进行开发活动的分类管理.     

城市洪涝灾情评估与风险管理初探

快速城市化背景下城市洪涝问题日趋严重,城市洪涝已成为制约经济社会可持续发展的重要瓶颈。聚焦城市洪涝灾情评估与风险管理,从城市洪涝灾情评估方法、城市洪涝风险分析与区划和城市洪涝风险管理与对策3个方面开展研究,预期成果可为城市洪涝灾害防治提供科学支撑和技术保障。     

伙伴关系模式建设项目集成风险管理探讨

通过对风险管理理论和实践的系统分析,结合建设项目的特点,提出了基于伙伴关系这一新型项目管理模式的集成风险管理框架,并构建了大型建设项目集成风险管理的组织系统模型,通过有效的组织结构实施团队风险管理和持续的风险管理,可以实现建设项目风险集成管理。     

Flood Hazard Assessment and Management: Interface with the Public

The understanding of how people evaluate and respond to natural hazards in an urban area, and how this knowledge can be integrated in the planning and management process, are becoming very important elements of a comprehensive and participatory approach to flood hazard management. Such an approach demands a clear comprehension of the processes of the risks perception, causal attribution, possible solutions for the problem and patterns of behaviour developed during hazard situations. The willingness of the public to participate in flood management, and the attitudes to previous initiatives also need to be addressed. The provision of structural flood defences can have a major impact on the environment and there has been an expression of concern by many members of the public for the degradation of river corridors. In this context, it is becoming a commonly accepted practice by central or local governments to submit flood management plans to public discussion. Appropriate techniques for interfacing with the public are necessary to support this upsurge of public involvement. This paper presents results from research on public perception of floods, flood management and participatory initiatives in Setúbal, Portugal. An extensive interview programme was undertaken with residents and shopkeepers – with and without flood experience, professionals responsible for dealing with flood control problems and local authorities responsible for decision-making on flood management. The paper concludes with a number of recommendations for flood hazard management policy making and processes.     

国外堤防风险管理现状及对我国的启示

为提高我国堤防风险管理水平和堤防防洪能力,介绍了荷兰、英国、法国、比利时、美国、日本和中国堤防风险管理现状,通过对比分析发现,国外堤防风险管理模式是政府与利益相关者共治,一般成立专门的水管理部门负责一切涉水事务,重视日常管理与维护,定期进行全面深入调查,注重堤坝数据库和网络信息化建设,趋向防灾社会化。借鉴国外经验,提出应从提高安全标准、转变防洪观念、加强立法、风险社会化、管理智慧化5个方面加强我国堤防风险管理,提升防洪能力。研究成果可供堤防管理者决策使用。     

国外有关洪水保险的实践及对我国的启示

洪水保险是一项重要的非工程防洪措施,是行之有效的洪灾风险管理手段,已被越来越多的国家所重视.美国是最早以立法形式将洪水保险作为洪水风险管理系统,制定并实施全国性洪水保险计划的国家,经过艰难曲折的探索,闯出了一条成功之路.英国是成功地采用市场化洪水保险模式的国家之一.我国20世纪80年代末开始洪水保险尝试,目前还处于探索阶段.分析英、美两国不同的洪水保险制度,可以为我国提供借鉴.     

上海防洪(潮)安全风险分析和管理

以上海防洪(潮)安全的风险分析为实例, 针对各种致灾的风险因子, 分析它们在不同条件下遭遇组合的可能性, 及其引发的灾害后果. 阐述了通过风险分析和管理途径, 提升上海防洪(潮)体系承担风险能力的必要性和可行性.     

水库溃坝洪水风险图编制研究

采用水力学模型,对溃坝流量以及溃坝后下游各断面的淹没水深和淹没范围等水力风险要素进行计算,基于ArcGIS技术开发了江苏省句容市北山水库洪水风险图管理系统,对GIS空间属性表字段进行渲染,自动绘制出溃坝洪水淹没风险信息,为下游句容市区防洪减灾提供技术支持。     

洪水生态环境风险管理浅议

论述了洪水生态环境风险管理的主要内容,包括各类防洪工程建设对流域内生态系统、环境质量的影响评价;对洪水灾害发生后产生的环境和生态影响进行调查评价,制定改善环境、保护生态的补偿计划及管理对策.并通过对各种风险进行评价,提出了一系列改善环境、保护生态的补偿计划及管理对策.     

综合洪水风险管理新进展

依据欧盟洪水风险管理指令,对洪水风险的定义进行了探讨。将综合洪水风险管理描述为由洪水事件、洪水管理、恢复重建和防洪等4个阶段组成的持续重复过程。综合洪水风险管理需要进行多层次、多部门的合作和跨学科的研究,为此简要介绍由德国联邦教育和研究部资助的＂极端洪水事件的风险管理＂综合性研究计划项目（2005—2010年）所取得的新成果。     

论抵御''98洪水与洪水风险管理

1998年长江流域发生了自1954年以来又一次全流域性大洪水，嫩江和松花江流域也发生了超历史记录的特大洪水．从抵御’98洪水中得出，必须改变单纯的抵御洪水的观念，要对洪水实行全过程风险管理．进行洪水风险管理，最主要的是制定针对洪水灾害的政策．并进一步分析了蓄滞洪区的管理，应加强以下几方面的建设：（1）控制和减少人口；（2）加强安全设施建设；（3）绘制洪水风险留，建立和完善避难的预报和预警系统；（4）建设分蓄洪控制工程；（5）严格土地利用规划及管理，调整产业结构；（6）实行洪水保险制度．     

Catchment Flood Management

Abstract

In recent years, there has been a growing concern worldwide about climate change and the corresponding apparent increase in the risk and frequency of flooding and about the implications for a wide range of river basin management issues. This paper describes the United Kingdom government's approach to implementing Catchment Flood Management Plans (CFMPs), which will provide a large-scale strategic planning framework for the integrated management of flood risk to people and the development of the natural environment in a sustainable manner. This unified approach is to be adopted across England and Wales, with a view to establishing a unified framework to study flood management in each major catchment. Following on from this introduction to the U.K. approach to high-level flood management, details are given of a study where better water quality management during flood flow conditions has been shown to require a catchment-wide approach to reducing diffuse source pollution from agricultural regions. This study also shows that without this holistic approach to water management, a major cause of non-compliance with an EU Directive would not have been established for this river basin.     

防洪减灾风险管理研究综述

主要对水文风险、水力风险、经济风险、风险决策和洪水保险五个方面的风险管理方法在防洪减灾中的研究现状进行归纳和评述 .其中水文风险的研究重点分为线型选择、参数估计、风险率计算三部分 ;水力风险的研究主要集中在水库泄洪风险及河道或洪泛区的洪水演进研究 ;经济风险分析主要集中在防洪费用效益的风险分析 ;风险决策研究通常表现为防洪问题的可靠性规划和多目标风险分析两种形式 ;洪水保险的研究主要是利用模拟模型来推导一个最优洪水保险策略 .文末阐述了防洪减灾风险管理的发展趋势