基于模糊优选和可信性的农业水资源多目标优化配置模型

干旱半干旱流域内社会、经济和生态问题多是由水资源匮乏或管理不当导致的,因此寻求有效的水资源管理方法至关重要。针对农业水资源配置过程的多目标性和不确定性问题,建立了一个多目标模糊可信性优化模型(MFCP)。该模型不仅通过定量分析不同目标在农业发展中的权重,对决策变量的综合效益进行模糊优选,还基于模糊可信理论处理了模糊参数。所开发的MFCP模型应用于甘肃省武威市民勤灌区进行实证研究,构建了以经济、生态和社会效益为目标、以水土资源自然禀赋限制等为约束的水资源优化配置模型。结果表明,可以通过减小玉米和葵花种植面积、增大瓜类和蔬菜的面积达到区域综合效益最优。以2015年为例,与优化前现状相比,优化后的方案在减少11.1%的种植总面积的情况下,能节约水量12.6%、提高经济收益13.8%。     

基于区间两阶段随机规划方法的 北京市水资源优化配置

针对缺水型城市水资源配置过程中的不确定性,建立了基于不确定性基本理论的区间两阶段随机规划模型,应用于北京市2025年水资源优化配置的研究。以北京市用水综合效益最大为目标函数,引入概率分布和区间数表示多重不确定性,求得北京市2025年城六区与郊区在生活、工业、农业与生态用水上的优化供水目标以及不同来水水平下的配水方案。结果表明:北京市2025年优化供水目标为47.39亿m~3,城六区工业用水与郊区农业用水的供水目标应采取保守值;不同来水水平下的优化配置水量为[36.49,47.39]亿m~3,仅北京为丰水年时不存在缺水现象,北京与丹江口水库同时遇枯时的缺水量高达[5.48,10.90]亿m~3,对北京市供水安全造成极大的威胁。该模型充分考虑不确定因素对水资源配置的影响,权衡用水收益与缺水风险的关系,并以区间的形式给出配置结果,可为北京市2025年供水目标与水资源优化配置方案的制定以及水资源安全保障措施的分析提供科学依据。     

缺水灌区农业水土资源优化配置模型

考虑水资源和土地资源大系统特征,以灌区灌溉净效益最大为目标,建立缺水灌区农业水土资源优化配置模型,根据模型特点,提出多阶段人工鱼群算法。将模型应用于某大型灌区,得出灌区2015年平水年(P=50%)和一般干旱年(P=75%)3种主要农作物的优化种植面积以及水资源年内分配方案,结果表明:采用优化配置模型优化效果显著,2015年平水年(P=50%)与一般干旱年(P=75%)农业净效益比采用传统配置模式下的农业净效益分别提高7.5%和10.3%;多阶段人工鱼群算法对解决缺水灌区复杂的农业水土资源优化配置问题合理有效,为大系统优化问题提供了一种新的解决思路。     

基于改进人工蜂群算法优化投影寻踪的水资源配置方案评价

针对水资源配置方案综合评价中需要克服因模糊性和不确定性而引起的目标权重确定的精确性欠佳及多目标之间的不可公度性和矛盾性问题,提出基于改进人工蜂群优化投影寻踪模型的水资源配置评价方法,并将其应用到天津市水资源配置方案评价中,结果表明,该方法不仅可有效避免评价指标赋权时的主观任意性,而且评价结果与实际相符,方法可行有效。     

基于正态云组合赋权的水资源配置方案综合评价方法EI北大核心CSCD

针对水资源配置方案评价过程中指标权重的模糊和随机不确定性问题,引入定性定量转换模型——正态云模型,提出一种基于正态云组合赋权和云相似度TOPSIS法的水资源配置方案综合评价方法。该方法利用逆向云生成算法将多个主客观权重进行信息融合,生成不确定正态云组合权重;通过计算水资源配置方案与理想方案综合云模型间的相对相似度对方案进行排序并确定最佳方案。利用所提出的方法对天津市水资源配置8种方案进行评价,并与其他5种水资源配置方案评价方法进行对比分析,结果表明:基于正态云组合赋权的水资源配置方案综合评价方法是可行且有效的,评价结果与实际相符;该方法可以有效避免对评价指标赋权的不确定性,有效地解决组合权重不确定信息的融合问题。     

流域水资源供需双侧调控模型及应用

针对水资源常规配置中供需分离、配置与调度结合不紧密,难以支撑流域水资源严格管理的问题,提出流域水资源供需双侧调控模型。在需水侧,通过建立供水量和效益函数关系,并考虑水土资源等约束条件,构建农业种植结构与灌溉制度优化模型;在供水侧,采用模拟与优化、配置与调度相结合的两阶段建模路径,构建多水源配置与水库群优化调度模型;通过来源于需水侧模型的"需水过程"与来源于供水侧模型的"可供水过程"的分解与耦合,实现供需双侧的联合调控,综合集成构建流域水资源供需双侧调控模型。将该模型应用于南四湖流域,提出了南四湖上级湖、下级湖等大型湖库工程的优化调度图与不同年型下农业种植结构和水资源配置方案,验证了模型的有效性。通过供需双侧协调优化,南四湖流域供需缺口缩小,农业种植效益增加,枯水年水分生产效益提高了0.70元/m~3、平水年水分生产效益提高了0.63元/m~3;生活和工业供水保证率稳定在95%,生态和农业供水保证率明显提升,分别由53%提高到71%、由67%提高到75%。     

好水川流域作物种植结构优化研究

为了加强好水川流域农业水资源管理,优化与农业密切相关的作物种植结构,促进水资源优化配置,根据该流域的自然、社会、经济等条件,建立了作物综合效益评价指标体系,并采用多层次决策分析法确定了各指标的权重。基于模糊多目标优化理论建立了该流域作物种植结构的优化模型,对该流域主要作物结构优化进行了计算。结果表明:流域内小麦、玉米、豌豆、胡麻、土豆5种主要作物的最优种植面积为337.33、318.80、71.87、189.87、308.80 hm2。     

基于改进萤火虫算法的水资源优化配置

构建以经济、社会、环境综合效益为目标的水资源优化配置模型,通过线性加权法将多目标模型化为单目标模型,在萤火虫算法的基础上引入一种自适应型惯性权重,将固定步长改进为可变步长,求解优化配置模型,并结合实例,得到了不同水平年不同保证率下的山西省盂县水资源优化配置方案。研究结果表明:盂县供需水量基本平衡,配置方案科学合理,基于改进萤火虫算法的水资源优化配置模型在孟县具有较强的有效性与适用性。     

不确定性多目标模糊规划在水资源优化配置中的应用

在充分考虑水资源系统中供需水不确定性的基础上,基于多目标规划、模糊规划和区间规划原理,以经济效 益、社会效益和环境效益最大为目标,以需水量、可供水量和不同子区用水部门间的用水公平性为主要约束,构 建一种适用于多水源、多子区、多用户的考虑供需水不确定性的多目标模糊规划模型,以期通过平衡水资源配置 系统中用户配置水量、缺水风险与系统收益三者的关系,实现系统综合效益最大。模型以衡水市历年供水、用水 及社会经济等数据确定规划年的水资源参数及经济参数,采用区间参数反映系统中的不确定性,通过引入模糊隶 属度函数,利用两步交互式算法,将多目标规划转化为单目标规划进行求解,以 2025 年为衡水市规划水平年,得 到规划水平年下的 11 个子区、4 种水源、4 个用水行业的最优配水方案。结果表明：本研究制定的水资源优化配 置方案可实现“外调水优先利用、地下水控制利用”,同时考虑用水的公平性约束后,在缺水条件下可有效控制水 资源向每立方米水效益高的区域和部门流动,有利于多区域、多部门共担缺水风险;该水资源优化配置方案可有 效缓解衡水市水资源供需矛盾,实现多水源和多目标之间的协同互补。研究成果可为河北省其他县域的水资源 优化配置提供技术参考。     

水资源系统分析方法在引大入秦工程水资源优化配置中的应用

运用水资源系统分析理论，以引大入秦工程供水能力、供水区需水量为约束，以工程效益、社会效益为目标，建立水资源优化配置的多目标线性规划模型，并求解该模型，以确定优化配置方案，并分析评价了配置方案对灌区生态环境的影响。     

A Compromise Programming Model to Integrated Urban Water Management

Integrated urban water management is an important and critical matter in every city and country. Many objectives and criteria such as satisfaction of the urban water consumers, the national benefits and social hazards must be considered in the integrated urban water management. So the integrated urban water management can be considered as a multi-objective problem. In this paper, a mathematical model which uses the compromise programming model is presented to optimize this multi-objective problem. Three famous objectives involving water distribution cost, leakage water and social satisfaction level are considered. To evaluate the performance and efficiency of the proposed model, Hamedan potable water network is chosen as a case study. Results show that the proposed model is capable to present effective solutions for the considered problem. So the proposed mathematical model can be used as an efficient tool for the integrated urban water management in every urban area.     

An Interactive Fuzzy Satisfying Approach for Sustainable Water Management in the Yellow River Delta,China

This paper proposes using an interactive fuzzy satisfying method to solve multi-objective optimization problems in integrated water management of the Yellow River Delta, China. The approach involves economic, social and ecological objectives represented by net returns, water deficiency and ecological water requirements, respectively. It considers the decision-maker’s preferences in terms of fuzzy satisfying of each objective and holistic satisfying of all objectives based on Euclid distance. The method avoids the subjectivity of having decision-makers assigning weights to the multiple objectives to some degree. The method is applied to the Yellow River Delta, China. Results indicate that considerably more water should be allocated to ecological uses of water in the Yellow River than currently occurs. An interactive fuzzy satisfying approach for the multi-objective optimization problems has significant potential in the field of integrated water management.     

Planning for Regional Water System Sustainability Through Water Resources Security Assessment Under Uncertainties

A leader-follower relationship in multiple layers of decision makers under uncertainties is a critical challenge associated with water resources security (WRS). To address this problem, a credibility-based chance-constrained hierarchical programming model with WRS assessment is developed for regional water system sustainability planning. This model can deal with the sequential decision-making problem with different goals and preferences, and reflect uncertainties presented as fuzzy sets. The effectiveness of the developed model is demonstrated through a real-world water resources management system in Beijing, China. A leader-follower interactive solution algorithm based on satisfactory degree is utilized to improve computational efficiency. Results show the that: (a) surface water, groundwater, recycled water, and off water would account for 27.01, 27.44, 23.11, and 22.44% of the total water supplies, respectively; (b) the entire pollutant emissions and economic benefits would consequently decrease by 31.53 and 22.88% when the statue changes from quite safe to extremely far from safe; and (c) a high credibility level would correspond to low risks of insufficient water supply and overloaded pollutant emissions, which lowers economic benefits and pollutant emissions. By contrast, a low credibility level would decrease the limitations of constraints, which leads to high economic benefits and pollutant emissions, but system risk would be increased. These findings can aid different decision makers in identifying the desired strategies for regional water resources management under multiple uncertainties, and support the in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among water security, system efficiency, and credibility level.     

A Multi-objective Linear Programming Model with Interval Parameters for Water Resources Allocation in Dalian City

Water resources management has been of concern for many researchers since the contradiction between increased water demand and decreased water supply has become obvious. In the real world, water resources systems usually have complexities among social, economic, natural resources and environmental aspects, which leads to multi-objective problems with significant uncertainties in system parameters, objectives, and their interactions. In this paper, a multi-objective linear programming model with interval parameters has been developed wherein an interactive compromising algorithm has been introduced. Through interactive compromising conflicts among multi-objectives, a feasible solution vector can be obtained. The developed model is then applied to allocation of multi-source water resources with different water qualities to multiple users with different water quality requirements for the Dalian city for 2010, 2015 and 2020 planning years. The model pursues the maximum synthesis benefits of economy, society and the environment. The results indicate that the proportion of reused water to the total water amount is gradually increasing, and the proportion of agricultural water consumption to the total water consumption is gradually decreasing. The allocation of multi-source water resources to multiple users is improved due to incorporation of uncertain factors into the model that provide useful decision support to water management authorities.     

基于多目标不确定性机会约束规划的矿区水资源配置研究

以矿区水资源配置系统为研究对象,针对矿区生态恢复过程水资源配置的多目标、模糊、不确定性的特点,构建多目标不确定性机会约束规划模型对矿区水资源进行优化配置。基于生态优先的配水原则,以碳排放最小化目标代替传统的污染物排放量最小化目标,兼顾碳排放最小化、系统经济效益最大化以及缺水量最小化,建立矿区生态环境－经济社会－水资源协调发展的多目标模型,统筹分配地下水、地表水、矿井水以及再生水。对实际情况中的不确定性因素采用区间参数的方法表示,并通过遗传算法对模型进行求解,得到合理的水资源配置方案。将模型应用于宁夏回族自治区羊场湾矿区,结果表明：以碳排放为目标的不确定性机会约束规划多目标模型能够很好地统筹矿区经济发展目标与水资源节约目标,配置方案可保证各个用水部门的需水满足度达到100%,而以污染物排放量为目标的优化方案存在区域缺水的情况。系统可带来年碳净吸收量（CO₂）为533.7～702.4 t,预期年经济效益为162.3×10⁴～163.7×10⁴元,区域年供水富余量为43.5×10⁴～49.7×10⁴ m³。研究结果一方面可为羊场湾矿区尽快实现绿色矿山提供理论支撑,另一方面也可为其他干旱地区煤矿区的水资源配置和规划提供参考。     

Managing Water Supply and Demand to Achieve Economic and Environmental Objectives: Application of Mathematical Programming and ANFIS Models

The integrated management of water supply and demand has been considered by many policymakers; due to its complexity the decision makers have faced many challenges so far. In this study, we proposed an efficient framework for managing water supply and demand in line with the economic and environmental objectives of the basin. To design this framework, a combination of ANFIS and multi-objective augmented ε-constraint programming models and TOPSIS were used. First, using hydrological data from 2001 to 2017, the rate of water release from the dam reservoir was estimated with the ANFIS model; afterwards, its allocation to agricultural areas was performed by combining multi-objective augmented ε-constraint models and TOPSIS. To prove the reliability of the proposed model, the southern Karkheh basin in Khuzestan province, Iran, was considered as a case study. The results have showed that this model is able to reduce irrigation water consumption and to improve its economic productivity in the basin.

     

洪泽湖多目标水量调度决策模型及其应用

针对洪泽湖水量利用与生态水位维持这一矛盾开展多目标水量调度决策方法研究,构建贴近适宜生态水位 （生态效益）、缺水率最小、引水量最小、入湖水量改变度最小等目标的多目标调度模型,考虑生态效益目标与水 资源利用目标的不可共度性及决策者偏好模糊性特征,采用多目标模糊决策法从非劣解集中筛选最适宜调度方 案。结果表明：多目标模型解集反映生态效益和经济社会效益的置换关系,贴近适宜生态水位的调控方式在一定 程度上降低洪泽湖调蓄能力,与水资源利用形成矛盾关系;模糊决策法筛选的均衡调度策略可以有效反映决策者 的偏好情况,并提供适用于不同情景的优化调度方式;生态目标优先方案通过减少供水、增加引水量、调节入湖 水量等方式有效补充生态用水,可将生态水位偏离差降低至 0.30?m,可为生态优先原则下的适宜调度策略制定提 供参考。     

基于二元水循环及系统熵理论的城市用水配置

基于二元水循环理论,在分析城市水资源配置系统结构基础上,构建了考虑水资源质、量均衡的城市用水优化配置模型,并运用多目标求解方法获得水资源分配的可行方案;对信息熵进行改进,构建了系统熵,并将其应用于可行方案的评价中。对昆明市水资源的优化配置计算结果表明,当重视生态效益或者综合考虑生产、生活、环境及生态效益时,系统熵值较小,这将有利于水资源系统的长期健康运行;该方法不仅能对城市用水系统进行简洁有效的分析评价,亦能对用水系统的结构调整、系统发展提供参考意见。     

Multi-objective Cultured Differential Evolution for Generating Optimal Trade-offs in Reservoir Flood Control Operation

Reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) is a complex problem because it needs to consider multiple objectives and a large number of constraints. Traditional methods usually convert multiple objectives into a single objective to solve, using weighted methods or constrained methods. In this paper, a new approach named multi-objective cultured differential evolution (MOCDE) is proposed to deal with RFCO. MOCDE takes cultural algorithm as its framework and adopts differential evolution (DE) in its population space. Considering the features of DE and multi-objective optimization, three knowledge structures are defined in belief space to improve the searching efficiency of MOCDE. MOCDE is first tested on several benchmark problems and compared with some well known multi-objective optimization algorithms. On achieving satisfactory performance for test problems, MOCDE is applied to a case study of RFCO. It is found that MOCDE provides decision makers many alternative non-dominated schemes with uniform coverage and convergence to true Pareto optimal solutions in a short time. The results obtained show that MOCDE can be a viable alternative for generating optimal trade-offs in reservoir multi-objective flood control operation.