Vulnerability of Korean water resources to climate change and population growth.

Freshwater availability is affected by changes in climate and growth. We assessed the freshwater vulnerability for five major Korean river basins for 2015 and 2030. We used a regional climate model based on the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, US Geological Survey's Precipitation Rainfall Simulation Model, and population and industrial growth scenarios for impact assessment. The model simulation results suggest increasing spatial and temporal variations of water stress for the basins that are already developed. While freshwater is more vulnerable to growth scenarios than the climate change scenario, climate change alone could decrease mean annual runoff by 10% in four major river basins by 2030. As the first national assessment of climate change, we suggest possible adaptive water resource management and policy strategies for reducing climate related risks in Korea.     

Future Water Supply and Demand Management Options in the Athabasca Oil Sands

The Athabasca River Basin, home to Canada's growing oil sands mining industry, faces challenging trade‐offs between energy production and water security. Water demand from the oil sands mining industry is projected to increase as climate change is projected to alter the seasonal freshwater supply. In this study, a range of water management options are developed to investigate the potential trade‐offs between the scale of bitumen production and industry growth, water storage requirements, and environmental protection for the aquatic ecosystems, under projections of mid‐century climate change. It is projected that water storage will be required to supplement river withdrawals to maintain continuous bitumen production under the impacts of future climate warming. If high growth in future bitumen production and water demand is the priority, then building sufficient water storage capacity to meet industry demand will be comparable to a week of lost revenue because of interrupted production. If environmental protection is prioritized instead, it will require over nine times the water storage costs to maintain water demand under a high industry growth trajectory. Future water use decisions will need to first, determine the scale of industry and environmental protection, and second, balance the costs of water storage against lost revenue because of water shortages that limit bitumen production. This physically based assessment of future water trade‐offs can inform water policy, water management decisions, and climate change adaptation plans, with applicability to other regions facing trade‐offs between industrial development and ecosystem water needs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Grid-Based Approach to Water Scarcity Estimates for Eastern and Southern Africa

A novel approach is taken to the problem of estimating global water scarcity, using a realistic and consistent procedure applied across many countries. Water demands, surface flows and groundwater availability are estimated on a gridded basis, and various water availability indices are derived comparing the resource with the projected demand. Surface flows are estimated using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model linking climate to runoff and, in the major river basins, the runoff estimates for individual grid cells are accumulated to give estimates for the total flows at all points of interest. Groundwater availability is derived from hydrogeological maps based on estimates of the potential yield that can be expected from a borehole and the likely maximum borehole density. Estimates of potential groundwater recharge derived from the surface water model are also taken into account. Water demands are based on current and projected population and livestock numbers, and information on irrigation schemes and industrial water use. Results are presented for the application of the model to a region covering the whole of eastern and southern Africa. The main scenario considered includes the combined impact of climate change, population growth and improved living standards to the year 2050. The results for this scenario show that water scarcity is likely to increase in many countries in the region, with particular problems in the countries around Lake Victoria and in the southernmost parts of the pilot region.     

Appraisal and Assessment of World Water Resources

Abstract

A critical analysis of the present situation on the global water resources assessment is made. Basic data and methodological approaches used by the author for the assessment and prediction of water resources, water use and water availability on the global scale are briefly described. On the basis of data generalization of the world hydrological network new data are given on the dynamics of renewable water resources of the continents, physiographic and economic regions, selected countries as well as on the river water inflow to the world ocean. The results of the assessments for the 20^th century and for the future before 2010–2025 on the water supply for municipal, industrial and agricultural needs as well as an additional evaporation from reservoirs are presented. Loads on water resources and water availability depending on socio-economic and phisiographic factors are analyzed; regions of water scarcity and water resources deficit are discovered. Possible ways of water supply improvement and elimination of water resources deficit in different regions and countries are discussed     

The energy trade-offs of adapting to a water-scarce future: case study of Los Angeles

Abstract

Increasing water competition, population growth and global climate change will intensify the tension between water and energy resources in arid climates of the world, since energy costs underscore the challenges facing water security in dry regions. In few places is the tension between water and energy resources more pronounced than in Los Angeles, California. This article analyzes the city’s current water supply and estimates its future energy requirements based on water supply projections from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. Results suggest that while increasing local water management strategies could reduce the future energy intensity of the water supply, an increased reliance on water transfers could worsen its future energy intensity.     

Climate Change and Water Resource Availability: An Impact Assessment for Bombay and Madras,India

ABSTRACT

Global climate change associated with rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may alter regional temperature and precipitation patterns. Such changes could threaten the availability of water resources/Or rapidly growing Third World cities, many of which are already experiencing severe water supply deficiencies. This paper investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water resource availability for two Indian cities, Bombay and Madras. The paper begins by discussing future trends for population growth and water demand in each city. Nat, using climate change scenarios based on three general circulation models (GCMs), the paper assesses how climate change may affect water availability in the two urban regions. The assessment is conducted through the use of a monthly dryness index measuring potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. For each region, the dryness index under “normal” climatic conditions is compared with indexes created using GCM scenarios. The results of this assessment indicate that, unless large increases in regional precipitation accompany climate warming, higher rates of evapotranspiration will mean reduced water availability for both cities. The paper concludes by discussing some implications for water management in Third World cities.     

Managing Water Resources to Adapt to Climate Change: Facing Uncertainty and Scarcity in a Changing Context

Some of the most significant future efforts in water resources management will be devoted to climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation is of special concern in regions facing water scarcity where water management is already challenged by many problems. This paper is a review of current knowledge on approaches to address water issues under uncertainty in water-scarce regions, identifying specific policy actions for climate change adaptation. The focus is on regions, like the Mediterranean, California or Australia, where water resources are well developed and have become an essential part of socioeconomic activities but are currently facing significant challenges due to their dependence on water availability to maintain living standards. We provide an overview of the expected impacts of climate change on water resources and discuss management responses based on peer-reviewed studies published over the past three decades. The adaptation choices cover a wide range of options, from adaptive demand management to utilization of remaining marginal water sources. The intensification of successful measures already applied in the past is still viewed as a solution to reduce climate impacts. However, the emphasis is progressively being placed on sustainability, developing and extending the water management paradigm to include not only technical and economic criteria, but also ecological and social considerations.     

An Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Sea Level Variability: Coastal Area of New York City

Climate change has resulted in sea level rise and increasing frequency of extreme storm events around the world. This has intensified flood damage especially in coastal regions. In this study, a methodology is developed to analyze the impacts of climate change on sea level changes in the coastal regions utilizing an artificial neural network model. For simulation of annual extreme sea level, climate signals of Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and SLP gradient of the study region and some characteristic points are used as predictors. To select the best set of predictors as neural network model input, feature selection methods of MRMR (Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance) and MI (Mutual Information) are used. Future values of the selected predictors under greenhouse gas emission scenarios of B1, A1B and A2 are used in the developed neural network model to project water level for the next 100 years. Sea levels with different recurrence intervals are determined using frequency analysis of historical and projected water level as well, and the impact of climate change in extreme sea level is investigated. The developed methodology is applied to New York City to determine the coastal region vulnerability to water level changes. The results of this study show remarkable increase in sea level in the New York City, which is an indicative of coastal areas vulnerability and the need to take strategic actions in dealing with climate change.     

Impacts of climate change on water quantity,water salinity,food security,and socioeconomy in Egypt

Climate change might have direct impacts on water quantity in Egypt and lead to indirect effects on Mediterranean saltwater intrusion to groundwater, which exposes agriculture to vulnerability. This study investigated impacts of climate change on agriculture, with particular regard to food security and socioeconomy, and quantified the effectiveness of cropping pattern adaptation measures by integrating three mathematical models. The Blue M model was used for hydrological simulations of Nasser Lake under flooding scenarios to predict the water supply from the High Aswan Dam. The water and salinity balance(WB-SAL) model was adopted to estimate the water salinity in the Nile Delta. The simulated results from the Blue M and WB-SAL models were integrated with the agricultural simulation model for Egypt(ASME) to project cropping patterns, food security, and socioeconomy throughout the country. The results showed that future climate change will directly affect the total crop area; crop areas for 13 crop types; the self-sufficiency of wheat, rice, cereal, and maize supplies; and socioeconomic indicators. The proposed cropping pattern adaptation measures focus on fixing the crop areas of rice and orchards and providing half of the population with lentils, maize, onion, vegetables, milk, and meat. The adaptation measures have the potential to promote food security without causing deterioration of the socioeconomic situation. However, water availability has much more significant effects on food security and socioeconomy than cropping pattern adaptation measures do. Accordingly, the country should rationalize water use efficiency and increase water supply.     

气候变化与中国水资源可持续利用

全球变暖是目前最重要的环境问题之一.根据目前的相关研究成果,介绍了中国气候变化及其影响的事实,论述了中国水资源特点及目前存在的问题,分析了气候变化对中国典型流域河川径流量变化的贡献、未来气候变化对水资源的可能影响、以及水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性;结合中国的实际情况,初步提出了水资源管理中应对气候变化的基本适应对策.     

A Look at Twenty-first Century Water Resources Development

Abstract

Water resources management approaches around the world are changing dramatically. This “changing water paradigm” has many components, including a shift away from sole, or even primary, reliance on finding new sources of supply to address perceived new demands, a growing emphasis on incorporating ecological values into water policy, a re-emphasis on meeting basic human needs for water services, and a conscious breaking of the ties between economic growth and water use. A reliance on physical solutions continues to dominate traditional planning approaches, but these solutions are facing increasing opposition. At the same time, new methods are being developed to meet the demands of growing populations without requiring major new construction or new large-scale water transfers from one region to another. More and more water suppliers and planning agencies are beginning to explore efficiency improvements, implement options for managing demand, and reallocating water among users to reduce projected gaps and meet future needs. The connections between water and food are receiving increasing attention as the concerns of food experts begin to encompass the realities of water availability. These shifts have not come easily; they have met strong internal opposition. They are still not universally accepted, and they may not be permanent. Nevertheless, these changes represent a real shift in the way humans think about water use. This paper summarizes the components of this ongoing shift and looks at the new paths being explored. It evaluates the major reasons for the change in approach and discusses the applicability of these new concepts in different parts of the world     

基于概率性Budyko方程的我国可利用水资源量脆弱性评估

利用概率性Budyko方程定量评估我国可利用水资源量空间分布情状及其相应的不确定性,识别我国可利用水资源量高脆弱性地区。结果表明,降水是影响可利用水资源量脆弱性的主导因素,并且较为干旱的区域具有较低不确定性;我国东北地区、西北地区、华北地区以及华东地区北部这一带状地区的可利用水资源量最易受到降水变化的影响,并且在降水减少量不同(分别减少5%、10%、15%)的情况下这种现象依然明显,可见这些地区对降水变化呈现高度的脆弱性。     

Food and water scenarios for the Karkheh River Basin,Iran

Increasing population and income and a wheat self-sufficiency policy are already stressing Iran's strategic Karkeh River Basin. Examining three scenarios to the year 2025, the authors of this study find: (1) business as usual leads to an aggravation of groundwater overdraft and may jeopardize the ecosystem services provided by the Hawr Al Azim marsh area; (2) giving priority to environmental flow requirements and restoring groundwater tables leads to a shortfall in wheat production; but (3) reducing agricultural water demand could maintain a certain level of food production. Appropriate policy could minimize the tradeoffs between food self-sufficiency, sustainable water use and farmers' income.     

Urban Water Management Problems in Developing Countries with Particular Reference to Bangladesh

Worldwide, urban population is forecast to more than double from about 2.5 billion in 1994 to some 5.1 billion in 2025. Urbanization is increasingly located in developing countries: in 1970, 50% of the population lived in urban areas in these countries; this rose to 66% in 1994 and is forecast to be close to 80% by 2020 (United Nations, 1995). Cities in developing countries report shortages of sources for raw water, as well as the basic infrastructure for provision of urban household, industrial and commercial water supply. Sources for water and protection of water quality will indeed become more critical with more cases emerging of severe shortages that directly affect daily life.     

Analysis of the Water Resources Status in Kuwait

The acute lack of natural water resources in Kuwait is indisputable. The country essentially has one limited natural water resource that is groundwater, while the majority of the country's demands are met by seawater desalination. Notwithstanding this scarcity calls for careful foresighted utilization of the water resources, no clear plans is being followed. Attempting to initiate the planning process, this paper gives an assessment of the current status of water resources availability, production, future demand and expected increases in production, in Kuwait. While the desalination and wastewater reuse are only bounded by economical considerations, considerable efforts have already been made in assessing the baseline of the groundwater resources in Kuwait; nonetheless, no estimation is available of the aquifer system potential for sustainable development or even mining. The total water budget in 2001 is estimated at 655 Million m³, with desalination, groundwater production, and wastewater reuse constituting 59%, 32% and 9% respectively. The projected water demand for 2010 is 1020 Million m³. The plans of the Ministry of Electricity and Water and the Ministry of Public Works indicated that groundwater would cover 52% of the planned additional production, while desalination and wastewater reuse would cover 44% and 4% respectively. While the proposed increase in groundwater production would inevitably consume the only natural water resource of the country, only 40% of the generated wastewater is to be utilized. The absence of integrated planning is also manifested in the total planned production that surpasses the projected demands by more than 17%.     

The Impacts of Climate Variability and Future Climate Change in the Nile Basin on Water Resources in Egypt

This paper describes the application of hydrologic models of the Blue Nile and Lake Victoria sub-basins to assess the magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on Main Nile discharge. The models are calibrated to simulate historical observed runoff and then driven with the temperature and precipitation changes from three general circulation model (GCM) climate scenarios. The differences in the resulting magnitude and direction of changes in runoff highlight the inter-model differences in future climate change scenarios. A 'wet' case, 'dry' case and composite case produced +15 (+12), -9 (-9) and + 1(+7) per cent changes in mean annual Blue Nile (Lake Victoria) runoff for 2025, respectively. These figures are used to estimate changes in the availability of Nile water in Egypt by making assumptions about the runoff response in the other Nile sub-basins and the continued use of the Nile Waters Agreement. Comparison of these availability scenarios with demand projections for Egypt show a slight surplus of water in 2025 with and without climate change. If, however, water demand for desert reclamation is taken into account then water deficits occur for the present-day situation and also 2025 with ('dry' case GCM only) and without climate change. A revision of Egypt's allocation of Nile water based on the recent low-flow decade-mean flows of the Nile (1981-90) shows that during this period Egypt's water use actually exceeded availability. The magnitude of 'natural' fluctuations in discharge therefore has very important consequences for water resource management regardless of future climate change.     

Impacts of Global Climate Change Scenarios on Water Supply and Demand in Jordan

Abstract

The potential impact of global climate change is one of the least addressed factors in water resources planning in developing countries. The potential impacts of climate change are examined for Jordan, where a methodology is presented for improved management of water demand under the uncertainties associated with climate change. A temperature/precipitation sensitivity model is constructed and combined with water demand forecasts to project deficits for the year 2020. Deficit reducing options are then evaluated in terms of social and economic viability. The study concludes that only some of the deficits may be alleviated, illustrating the significance of considering climate change in planning for countries that already experience water imbalances.     

Probable water crisis in Thrace and Istanbul in the near future and a sustainable strategy to overcome it

Abstract

The Thrace Region of Turkey, a passageway from Asia to Europe, which includes the most populated city of Istanbul, is threatened by a water crisis in the very near future. The population of Istanbul alone is forecast to reach 30 millions by the year 2025, requiring 3 billion m³ of water, nearly equal to the total fresh water resources of the region, 3.4 billion m³. In this study, we consider not only the proportion of the available water resources to be allocated for each competing sector, civil, agriculture and industry, but also attempt to outline integrated water management strategies for each sector. The potential of small earth reservoirs, more than 1,500 in number, is emphasised as a way to develop fresh water resources. Water saving policies in the cities and ethics for water use are also briefly discussed.     

Comprehensive Assessment of Water Resources in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Lack of sufficient quantities of water in the UAE is one of the major problems facing sustainable development. The arid climate of the country plays a significant role in the water resources availability. Rainfall, which is a main source of recharge for different water resources, such as surface water and groundwater, is scanty and extremely irregular in time and space. Evaporation, which reduces the amount of surface water, is high. Heavy pumping of groundwater has deteriorated groundwater levels. Desalination plants have been launched in different parts of the country to meet increasing water demands due to increasing population and economical development in the country. The continued reduction of water storage will hinder the development in the country. To avoid this problem, integrated water resources management (IWRM) strategy should be implemented. Searching for new non-conventional resources is also essential. This paper aims to assess the conventional and non-conventional water resources in the UAE and estimates the past and future water demands. In addition, this article focuses on future water strategy scenarios and plans.     

基于区间两阶段随机规划方法的 北京市水资源优化配置

针对缺水型城市水资源配置过程中的不确定性,建立了基于不确定性基本理论的区间两阶段随机规划模型,应用于北京市2025年水资源优化配置的研究。以北京市用水综合效益最大为目标函数,引入概率分布和区间数表示多重不确定性,求得北京市2025年城六区与郊区在生活、工业、农业与生态用水上的优化供水目标以及不同来水水平下的配水方案。结果表明:北京市2025年优化供水目标为47.39亿m~3,城六区工业用水与郊区农业用水的供水目标应采取保守值;不同来水水平下的优化配置水量为[36.49,47.39]亿m~3,仅北京为丰水年时不存在缺水现象,北京与丹江口水库同时遇枯时的缺水量高达[5.48,10.90]亿m~3,对北京市供水安全造成极大的威胁。该模型充分考虑不确定因素对水资源配置的影响,权衡用水收益与缺水风险的关系,并以区间的形式给出配置结果,可为北京市2025年供水目标与水资源优化配置方案的制定以及水资源安全保障措施的分析提供科学依据。