蚁群神经网络在短期负荷预测的应用

为了进一步提高BP神经网络的性能,实现准确、快速预测电力系统负荷的目的,将蚁群算法(ACA)作为BP神经网络的学习算法,建立了一种新的蚁群神经网络(AcAN)预测模型.对某电力系统短期负荷预测的计算实例表明,基于蚁群神经网络的负荷预测方法与传统的BP神经网络预测方法相比,具有较强的自适应能力和较好的效果.     

高速公路行程时间Bootstrap-KNN区间预测分析与实证

针对行程时间点预测不能描述预测结果的可信度问题,以高速公路收费系统作为基础数据源,提出基于Bootstrap的高速公路行程时间区间预测模型,通过范围概率(PICP)、预测区间平均宽度(MPIW)以及综合指标(CWC)反映区间预测性能.对预测模型建模和Bootstrap置信区间估计方法两个关键步骤进行分析和实证,比较小波神经网络和K最近邻两种常用数据驱动方法的预测误差,并分析4种Bootstrap置信区间估计方法的区间预测性能.在相同的置信水平下,Percentile Bootstrap-KNN模型的综合指标值CWC最小,说明该模型区间预测性能最佳.对陕西省高速公路某热点OD进行实例分析,结果表明,采用相同预测算法的区间预测比点预测的误差小,且预测区间宽度可以表征预测结果的可信度和参考价值.     

蚁群灰色神经网络模型在稻瘟病预测中的应用

水稻稻瘟病这种灰色系统具有复杂的非线性.综合利用蚁群灰色GM(1,1,θ)预测模型和RBF神经网络预测模型的特点,建立了蚁群灰色RBF神经网络组合预测模型.经过14年对水稻稻瘟病的预测分析,得出蚁群灰色神经网络模型的预测精度高达96.77％,验证了预测模型的有效性.     

基于随机灰色蚁群神经网络的近期公交客流预测

为了科学准确地预测近期公交客流量,根据近期公交客流量预测受到多因素影响以及非线性的特点,利用随机灰色变量描述预测系统的不确定性,建立了随机灰色预测模型以及基于蚁群算法的递归神经网络模型,在此基础上,提出了一种基于随机灰色蚁群神经网络的近期公交客流量预测方法。最后以铜陵市为例,对模型的预测精度和有效性进行了分析。结果表明,基于蚁群算法的递归神经网络模型的预测精度不但高于其他单一预测模型,而且明显优于其他传统组合预测模型,能很好地反映事物发展的规律,能够指导公交经营管理者近期的决策行为,有效地改善了预测精度。     

蚁群算法在需水预测模型参数优化中的应用

为了解决投影寻踪（PP）需水预测模型的高维、非正态、非线性参数优化问题,提高需水预测的精度,尝试用基于网格划分的自适应连续域蚁群算法(ACA)在不同拟合和预测时长内对模型参数进行优化组合,并运用该模型进行年需水量预测。基于改进蚁群算法的投影寻踪需水预测模型参数优化进行了实例仿真。对基于改进蚁群算法的预测精度与基于人工免疫算法（AIA）和BP神经网络的模型(BPANN)参数优化结果分别进行了比较,实验结果表明：1）这三种算法的拟合精度相对误差绝对值分别小于2%、10%和10%;2）预测精度相对误差绝对值分别小于6%、11%和12%;3）改进蚁群算法能收敛到全局最优解,收敛速度较快。因此,改进蚁群算法的投影寻踪需水预测结果明显优于人工免疫算法和BP神经网络。该方法可推广到其他类似的高维非线性问题上。     

股票价格短期预测的LM遗传神经网络算法

针对传统神经网络在股票价格预测中易陷入局部最优和预测精度偏低的问题,提出了一种改进的神经网络算法进行求解.改进的算法基于LM算法建立了改进的三层BP神经网络对股票价格建立预测模型,避免算法陷入局部最优,并运用遗传算法优化神经网络的权值和阈值,提高神经网络对股票价格的预测精度.采用Matlab对上述算法模型进行仿真测试,通过预测4支股票价格的实验证明改进后的神经网络预测算法对股票价格的短期预测有较好的精度和稳定性.     

几种巴斯模型参数估计方法的比较研究

在创新扩散的巴斯模型的基础上,提出了一种新的模型参数估计方法--采用蚁群算法作为巴斯模型参数估计方法.给出了运用蚁群算法思想设计的具体参数估计方法,并以中国移动通信技术的扩散为例,应用巴斯模型对其扩散趋势进行了实证研究,通过对蚁群算法和最小二乘法、遗传算法等传统参数估计方法估计结果的比较分析,得出结论,采用蚁群算法作为巴斯模型的参数估计方法效果更好.最后对中国移动通信技术的扩散趋势进行了预测并提出策略建议.     

ACO-BP神经网络在电梯交通流预测中的应用

电梯交通流预测为电梯配置与群控调度提供必要的乘客流数据信息.针对基于BP神经网络的电梯交通流预测模型在网络训练过程中表现出的对初值敏感、易陷入极小值等问题,提出利用全局寻优的蚁群优化(ACO)算法优化BP神经网络.同时,利用精英蚂蚁和排序策略对基本ACO算法进行改进.采集天津某办公大厦实际交通流数据进行实例分析,分别对基于传统的BP神经网络和蚁群优化的BP(ACO-BP)神经网络的电梯交通流预测模型进行仿真验证.结果表明:ACO-BP神经网络的预测效果远优于传统的BP神经网络,适用于电梯交通流预测系统.     

基于组合模型的短时交通流预测

在交通管理中,为了解决城市交通道路拥塞问题,提出一种可靠稳定的短时交通流预测算法.基于小波神经网络和历史趋势两种方法建立单性预测子模型,提出用小波神经网络作为最优非线性组合模型的逼近器,建立组合预测模型,实现对单项预测子模型结果的融合,通过MatLab平台对实测交通流量数据进行了仿真,结果表明,该种组合预测在短时交通流量预测方面是切实可行的.     

基于蚁群算法的电力负荷预测方法研究

为了提高负荷预测的精度,提出基于改进蚁群算法的电力负荷组合预测方法。该方法以回归分析、灰色模型、二次指数平滑值、龚帕兹模型、弹性系数法、逻辑斯谛模型法、二次移动平均模型为基础建立负荷组合预测模型,利用改进蚁群算法优化组合预测模型的权值,并与单个预测模型进行比较。预测结果表明,基于改进蚁群算法的电力负荷组合预测方法,运算速度快,预测精度高,相对误差小,有一定的实用价值。     

Call for Papers The 6^th International Conference on Grid and Cooperative Computing

Recent years have seen rapid advances in various grid-related technologies, middleware, and applications. The GCC conference has become one of the largest scientific events worldwide in grid and cooperative computing. The 6th international conference on grid and cooperative computing (GCC2007) Sponsored by China Computer Federation (CCF),Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ICT) and Xinjiang University ,and in Cooperation with IEEE Computer Soceity ,is to be held from August 16 to 18, 2007 in Urumchi, Xinjiang, China.     

煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计及其仿真实现

为了设计一种具有低成本、低功耗、易操作、功能强且可靠性高的煤矿井下安全分站,针对煤矿安全生产实际,文章提出了采用MCS-51系列单片机为核心、具有CAN总线通信接口的煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计方案;首先给出煤矿井下安全监控分站的整体构架设计,然后着重阐述模拟量输入信号处理系统的设计过程,最后说明单片机最小系统及其键盘、显示、报警、通信等各个组成部分的设计;为验证设计方案的可行性与有效性,使用Proteus软件对设计内容进行仿真验证,设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有瓦斯、温度等模拟量参数超标报警功能和电机开停、风门开闭等开关量指示功能;仿真结果表明:设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有一定的实际应用价值.     

法律信息库系统

本文分析了法律数据库的结构和特点，介绍了采用面向对象设计方法和超文本数据库技术开发和实现法律信息库系统将作为重要网络资源之一为不同用户进行法律咨询服务。     

View-based model-driven architecture for enhancing maintainability of data access services

In modern service-oriented architectures, database access is done by a special type of services, the so-called data access services (DAS). Though, particularly in data-intensive applications, using and developing DAS are very common today, the link between the DAS and their implementation, e.g. a layer of data access objects (DAOs) encapsulating the database queries, still is not sufficiently elaborated, yet. As a result, as the number of DAS grows, finding the desired DAS for reuse and/or associated documentation can become an impossible task. In this paper we focus on bridging this gap between the DAS and their implementation by presenting a view-based, model-driven data access architecture (VMDA) managing models of the DAS, DAOs and database queries in a queryable manner. Our models support tailored views of different stakeholders and are scalable with all types of DAS implementations. In this paper we show that our view-based and model driven architecture approach can enhance software development productivity and maintainability by improving DAS documentation. Moreover, our VMDA opens a wide range of applications such as evaluating DAS usage for DAS performance optimization. Furthermore, we provide tool support and illustrate the applicability of our VMDA in a large-scale case study. Finally, we quantitatively prove that our approach performs with acceptable response times.     

International Journal of Automation and Computing Table of Contents

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Information for authors

正SCIENCE CHINA Information Sciences(Sci China Inf Sci),cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and published by Science China Press,is committed to publishing highquality,original results of both basic and applied research in all areas of information sciences,including computer science and technology;systems science,control science and engineering(published in Issues with odd numbers);information and communication engineering;electronic science and technology(published in Issues with even numbers).Sci China Inf Sci is published monthly in both print and electronic forms.It is indexed by Academic OneFile,Astrophysics Data System(ADS),CSA,Cabells,Current Contents/Engineering,Computing and Technology,DBLP,Digital Mathematics Registry,Earthquake Engineering Abstracts,Engineering Index,Engineered Materials Abstracts,Gale,Google,INSPEC,Journal Citation Reports/Science Edition,Mathematical Reviews,OCLC,ProQuest,SCOPUS,Science Citation Index Expanded,Summon by Serial Solutions,VINITI,Zentralblatt MATH.     

Erratum to: Fast global kernel fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm for consonant/vowel segmentation of speech signal

正Erratum to:J Zhejiang Univ-Sci C(ComputElectron)2014 15(7):551-563doi:10.1631/jzus.C1300320The original version of this article unfortunately contained mistakes.Algorithm 6 should be as follows:Algorithm 6 FGKFCM-F clustering Input:(1)X={x_1,x_2,…,x_N},,x_iR~d,i=1,2,…,N,the dataset;(2)C,1C≤N,the number of clusters;(3)ε0,the stopping criterion;     

Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE C (Computers & Electronics) Total contents

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A pragmatic multi-method investigation of discrepant technological events: Coping,attributions, and ‘accidental’ learning

Discrepant technological events or situations that entail a problem, a misunderstanding or a difficulty with the Information Technology (IT) being employed, are common in the workplace, and can lead to frustration and avoidance behaviors. Little is known, however, about how individuals cope with these events. This paper examines these events by using a multi-method pragmatic approach informed by coping theory. The results of two studies – a critical incident study and an experiment – serve to build and test, respectively, a theoretical model that posits that individuals use a variety of strategies when dealing with these events: they experience negative emotions, make external attributions, and adopt engagement coping strategies directed at solving the event, eventually switching to a disengagement coping strategy when they feel they have no control over the situation. Furthermore, users’ efforts may result in ‘accidental’ learning as they try to overcome the discrepant IT events through engagement coping. The paper ends with a discussion of the results in light of existing literature, future opportunities for research, and implications for practice.