GM(1,1)和新陈代谢模型的比较

灰色模型具有所需数据少、预测精度高和无需先验信息的特点。本文通过建立GM(1,1)模型和新陈代谢模型实例预测某省火灾事故发生量,并将两种方法相比较,为相关部门提供科学的决策依据。结果表明灰色模型简单实用,预测精度高。而在此实例中,GM(1,1)模型比新陈代谢的预测精度更高、预测误差更小。     

GM（1，1）和新陈代谢模型的比较

灰色模型具有所需数据少、预测精度高和无需先验信息的特点。本文通过建立GM（1,1）模型和新陈代谢模型实例预测某省火灾事故发生量,并将两种方法相比较,为相关部门提供科学的决策依据。结果表明灰色模型简单实用,预测精度高。而在此实例中,GM（1,1）模型比新陈代谢的预测精度更高、预测误差更小。     

基于等维新息灰色马尔可夫模型的校准间隔预测

针对测量仪器校准间隔的优化问题,分析了历史校准数据的特征,建立了等维新息马尔可夫GM(1,1)预测模型.在等维新息GM(1,1)模型的基础上,引入马尔可夫模型,克服了随机波动数据对预测精度的影响.通过仿真实验对预测模型进行了验证,结果表明,等维灰色马尔可夫GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高于常规灰色GM(1,1)模型、等维新息灰色GM(1,1)模型和常规灰色马尔可夫GM(1,1)模型,更适合用于测量仪器校准间隔的预测.     

基于分段灰色模型的负荷预测方法

基于灰色GM(1,1)模型在负荷预测运用中的局限性,引入分段灰色较正GM(1,1)模型同时采用数理统计的-检验法对模型精度进行检验.通过实例应用表明,分段灰色校正模型具有较高的拟合精度和预测精度.     

基于改进灰色预测法的建筑结构承受可变荷载的研究

研究了灰色系统在建筑结构可变荷载中的分析应用。由于常规GM(1,1)模型在用于预测时只对近几次预测数据精度高,未来数据预测精度低的原因,导致越往后模型的预测意义就越弱。故尝试用灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型来预测济南地区未来5年标准状态下的风荷载。事实表明,该种预测模型有着良好的效果,预测精度高,有很好的利用价值。     

一种改进的GM(1,1)模型在装备故障预测中应用

针对传统GM(1,1)模型预测过程中参数固定导致适应性较差的问题,引入新陈代谢概念,给出了一种改进的新陈代谢GM(1,1)灰色预测模型;并应用于某型机载高度表中进行故障预测;结果表明与传统GM(1,1)预测结果相比,新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测结果与实际测试值间的绝对误差和相对误差均较小,预测精度也较高。     

AGM(1,1)模型的研究及应用

传统灰色模型GM(1, 1)是一种有偏差的指数模型,具有所需数据少、预测精度高和无需先验信息等优点,但有时预测效果不佳。基于这种情况,该文提出改进的灰色预测模型AGM (1, 1)及建模步骤,利用该模型实例预测某省参加国内游的年度总人数,并与传统的灰色预测模型结果相比较。结果表明,改进后的灰色预测模型精度更高、误差更小、简捷、实用,能够为相关部门的决策提供科学的理论 依据。     

基于GMM改进的信息系统安全态势实时预测研究

现有安全态势预测方法由于消耗较大和耗时较长而造成预测效果不佳,考虑到信息系统的结构复杂、信息交互频繁等特点,依据典型灰色模型GM(1,1)的消耗低、样本小、适用性强、短期预测效果好等特点对信息系统进行实时的安全态势预测。同时针对GM(1,1)模型的随机波动性小的问题,结合马尔可夫(Markov)链适用于随机波动较大的特点,提出一种以灰色GM(1,1)为预测原型,用马尔可夫链对GM(1,1)预测模型进行误差修正的实时信息系统安全态势预测模型。实验结果表明,在信息系统安全态势预测方面,该模型能够较准确地预测安全态势的总体趋势,且预测精度高于原灰色-马尔可夫模型的精度。     

基于分段灰色模型的负荷预测方法

基于灰色GM(1,1)模型在负荷预测运用中的局限性,引入分段灰色较正GM(1,1)模型;同时采用数理统计的-检验法对模型精度进行检验。通过实例应用表明,分段灰色校正模型具有较高的拟合精度和预测精度。     

双种群进化模型的电力负荷预测

传统灰色预测模型GM（1,1）在预测增长较快的电力负荷时效果会变差。针对这一缺陷,提出了一种改进的双种群ESOGM模型,将进化策略对参数优化处理的优点与GM（1,1）模型相结合,利用进化策略算法优化模型中的参数。电力负荷预测实例表明该模型具有较高的预测精度和较广的应用范围。     

Assessing Ideational and Evaluative Skills and Creative Styles and Attitudes

This article describes the rationale for the multiphase creative problem solving process, and reports the findings from an empirical investigation conducted to facilitate the problem solving of managers. The ideational skills of the managers were assessed before and after training in a complete process of creative problem solving, along with their ideational attitudes, creative problem solving style (i.e., generator, conceptualizer, optimizer, or implementor), and evaluative skill (i.e., ability to recognize original ideas). The most important findings indicated that the training had a significant impact on the evaluative accuracy of the managers. They were significantly more accurate in their judgments about original ideas after training, both in their identification of original ideas and their recognition of unoriginal ideas. After training, the managers also gave more solutions and more original solutions to problems. Finally, several variables (e.g., the “preference for active divergence” attitude, and the conceptualizer process style) seemed to moderate the impact of training. Training was therefore effective, with specific effects that can be predicted from pre-training individual differences in attitudes and process style.     

高等院校行政分析与决策系统的设计与实现

为提高高等院校的管理水平和决策水平,充分利用校园网资 源,开发了高等院校行政财政分析与决策系统。解决了诸如数据的动态查询、自动生成报表 、网络环境下数据共享等技术问题,具有网上数据共享、图形界面友好和安全的保密措施等 特点。     

Rank and select revisited and extended

The deep connection between the Burrows–Wheeler transform (BWT) and the so-called rank and select data structures for symbol sequences is the basis of most successful approaches to compressed text indexing. Rank of a symbol at a given position equals the number of times the symbol appears in the corresponding prefix of the sequence. Select is the inverse, retrieving the positions of the symbol occurrences. It has been shown that improvements to rank/select algorithms, in combination with the BWT, turn into improved compressed text indexes.     

Semantics and verification of monitors and systems of monitors and processes

In this paper we present a sound and complete semantics for the monitor concept of C.A.R. Hoare. First a method for specification of monitors, introduced by O.-J. Dahl, is reviewed. This method is based on the relation between the historic sequence of monitor procedure calls and the historic sequence of monitor procedure exits. Based on such specifications and our new monitor semantics we present a method by which it is possible to prove that a concrete monitor is an implementation of an abstract one. In the last part of the paper an axiomatic semantics for systems of concurrent processes and monitors is introduced. The method supports verification by separation of concerns: Properties of the communication to and from each process are proven in isolation by a usual Hoare style axiomatic semantics, while abstract monitors are also specified in isolation by the method reviewed in the first part of the paper. These properties of the components of the system are then used in a new proof rule to conclude properties of the complete system. Stein Gjessing received a Ph.D. (actually a Dr. philos.) from the University of Oslo (Norway) in 1985. Presently he is an Associate Professor at the Institute of informatics, University of Oslo, Norway. Dr. Gjessings research interests are in the area of concurrent and distributed programming, operating systems, formal specification and verification and programming languages.