组织项目管理成熟度(OPM3)模型构建

目前,在经济全球化的环境中,越来越多的组织已经把项目管理作为一种在当今高度竞争的商务环境中维持竞争优势的关键战略,并以各种努力去开发自己的项目管理能力,为其发展战略服务.组织项目管理成熟度模型(Organization Project Management Maturity Model,OPM3)作为一种全新的理念,它为组织项目管理能力的提升提供了一个评估与改进的框架.     

基于DEVS的交叉路口建模与仿真

考虑有信号控制的交叉路口内车辆之间、车辆与行人之间的冲突，在离散事件仿真规范（DEVS）框架下构建了交叉路口微观交通仿真模型.以某市典型交叉路口观察数据标定仿真参数，将仿真结果与按《城市道路设计规范》计算得到的通行能力进行比较，验证了模型.在此基础上，首先，仿真分析了不同左转比例对交叉路口通行能力的影响；然后，基于各方向等待通过交叉路口的车辆数目设计了智能绿信比控制策略.仿真试验表明：通行能力随着左转车比例的增加先上升后下降；智能绿信比控制能显著提升交叉路口通行能力，明显降低平均引道延误时间.由此证明仿真模型能真实地模拟交叉路口各因素间的相互作用，且易于扩充，通用性强，能够用于其它智能交通问题的研究.     

数据组合处理方法在数据预测中的应用

数据组合处理方法（GMDH）是20世纪70年代发展起来的一种启发式自组织建立模型的方法；它能充分地、合理地利用数据，自动进行变量组合，筛选以及判断从而得到合适的模型；简单介绍了该方法建模的基本原理和算法实现，给出了仿真算例，并与用相同资料建立的PPR预测模型的预测结果进行了比较；仿真结果表明，用GMDH方法建立非线性系统模型，具有预测精度高、计算稳定性好等优点。     

ERP项目冲突管理模型研究

本文通过分析ERP项目冲突管理的要素，对冲突的过程和冲突管理的方法进行了分析，提出了ERP项目冲突管理的综合模型。     

团购模式下云制造服务资源组合优化模型与算法

在云制造服务环境中,为了进一步降低需求者的服务成本,提出了一种团购模式下云制造服务资源组合优化模型与算法。在云制造平台发展的初期阶段,以服务需求者的视角分析云制造服务资源组合优化管理问题,通过团购模式研究了资源组合优化模型与算法,模型中考虑团购定价、团购信任度等关键影响因素,对云制造资源组合优化进行综合决策;设计改进的遗传算法进行模型求解,进一步对团购模式下云制造服务资源组合模型进行仿真分析。通过不同规模问题的仿真实验验证了模型与算法的有效性和可行性,仿真结果表明,在团购规模逐渐增大的情况下,团购模式比个体模式更具有成本优势。     

基于人员能力和风险事件的进度风险分析

为克服传统进度分析方法的不足,根据项目风险理论,提出了基于人员能力和风险事件的软件项目进度风险分析模型ScedRisk。该模型能在已有项目计划及任务人员分配信息的基础上,分析人员能力和风险事件对项目中每个任务影响,并采用蒙特卡洛仿真模拟项目执行过程,综合分析项目进度风险及导致项目延迟的主要风险源,为软件组织制定合理的风险规避策略和科学的项目进度计划提供决策依据。     

基于卡尔曼滤波的轨道阀阀位测量方法研究

该文提出了一种基于卡尔曼的陀螺仪/霍尔组合滤波的轨道阀阀位测量方法。首先利用轨道阀阀位测量系统建立MEMS陀螺仪误差数学模型，利用轨道阀阀位测量系统建立转角解算数学模型；其次，利用MEMS陀螺仪误差模型和轨道阀转角解算模型构建卡尔曼滤波器；再次，利用二阶卡尔曼滤波算法对轨道阀转角测量数据进行数据融合；最后，通过单轴转台获取传感器原始数据与标准旋转角度，在Matlab平台上进行仿真，分析得出陀螺仪/霍尔组合滤波的阀位数据比单一陀螺仪、霍尔传感器阀位测量精度显著提高。     

项目交互耦合网络演化

针对现有文献中较少考虑交互依赖关系对项目组合动态选择影响的问题,借鉴复杂网络理论,提出项目交互耦合网络概念,并从项目收益、资源成本、项目风险、项目状态、交互依赖关系及战略匹配程度等6个方面描述网络演化的影响要素.在此基础上,提出网络生成及调整规则,给出网络稳定状态定义,建立项目交互耦合网络.研究结果表明,与传统模型相比,项目交互耦合网络模型能得到更优的项目组合,能更有效地利用资源,规避风险,提高收益,同时,项目交互耦合网络能更好地了解项目结构,为项目组合管理提供支持.项目组合管理者应对那些节点介数大、聚集系数高的项目即核心项目进行重点扶持与保护,以防这些项目失败后引起其邻节点失败,甚至导致整个项目网络发生级联失败.     

基于OPN的指控能力包服务动态组合方法研究

服务组合方法对于分布式网络环境下基于SOA的军事应用系统的综合性能影响很大.提出了一种基于OPN的服务动态组合方法的解决方案.首先定义了基于对象Petri网的指控能力包服务描述和组合模型,对服务组合的数学算子进行了分析和证明,而后给出了基于OPN的服务动态组合流程,最后使用国防科大对象Petri网建模仿真环境工具对提出的服务组合模型进行建模仿真,并对实验数据进行了分析.     

基于模型检测的微服务组合平台QoS验证

针对当前缺少对微服务组合平台的服务质量（QoS）指标进行分析验证的问题，提出一种基于模型检测的形式化验证方法，对影响微服务平台性能的因素进行分析评估。首先，将微服务组合的服务资源配置过程划分为服务请求、资源配置和服务执行3个阶段，并分别由服务请求队列、服务请求配置器和提供服务资源的虚拟机等模块实现；其次，将各个模块的实现过程建模为带标记Markov回报模型（LMRM），借助类似于进程代数的同步概念获得微服务组合过程的全局模型；接着，用连续随机回报逻辑公式刻画期望的QoS指标；最后，将形式模型与逻辑公式作为模型检测工具PRISM的输入以获得验证结果。实验结果表明，LMRM可较好地用于微服务组合平台的建模和QoS验证分析。     

Performance management of public–private collaboration in innovation

The open innovation literature has highlighted that more focus should be placed on non‐pecuniary sources such as public research institutes (PRIs) and their performance management (PM), while innovation network studies have highlighted the growing importance of universities and PRIs in public‐private research partnerships. Building on PM capability and portfolio management perspectives, this research aims is to examine the relationship between knowledge resources and collaboration outcome in such public‐private collaborations, and the mediating role of senior management team's (SMT) ability to govern project portfolio approval and management processes. Examining 153 innovation commercialization collaboration projects between PRIs and firms in Singapore, our study has made several significant contributions to the existing research on innovation and performance in public‐private partnership. First, we empirically demonstrate that there is a direct positive relationship between PRIs' knowledge resources and collaboration outcome. Second, our findings establish that the PRIs' SMT ability to govern project portfolio processes mediates this positive relationship. Third, this research highlights that the SMT ability to govern project portfolio processes fully mediates the conversion of market knowledge into innovation. Only partial mediation is observed in the case of technological knowledge, which directly creates value by virtue of generating discoveries or breakthroughs.     

广义人工生命在项目组合智能管理中的应用

为考虑IT项目组合智能管理中人的因素,在“广义人工生命”（GAL）的KVP（种类、活性、过程）模型框架下,将IT项目与生命系统进行类比。分析了IT项目组合智能管理系统中存在的广义人工生命性能,建立了IT项目的丝蚕模型框架、生命活性模型、生命历程模型。重新定义了组件IT项目,给出了评估IT项目生长发育健康度的方法以及在项目组合智能管理中的应用。     

A Lack of Insight: An Experimental Analysis of R&D Managers’ Decision Making in Innovation Portfolio Management

This study analyses the decision to exploit an innovation project and investigates differences in individuals’ evaluations of project attributes in the context of innovation project portfolio management. A conjoint field experiment was used to collect data on exploitation decisions made by 126 research and development (R&D) managers to test how managers evaluate specific project attributes in the context of innovation project portfolio management. I analyse the relative power and popularity of profitability, strategy, uncertainty and social dimensions of the portfolio while R&D managers exploit an innovation project. Moreover, using social judgement theory, I analyse actual exploitation processes (i.e., the innovation attributes an R&D manager considers while he or she is making an exploitation decision) and self‐reported decision‐making attributes (i.e., managers’ self‐reported data). The data underline that R&D managers value specific project attributes more and others less, and therefore find disparities in innovation project portfolio decision making. Based on this study's results, decision makers are better able to reflect and understand the influence of specific project attributes. Therefore, they should investigate established decision‐making processes which can help them to improve portfolio performance.     

考虑战略实现干扰和风险双层关联的项目组合风险应对策略选择模型

项目组合受项目组合风险影响无法有效支撑企业战略实现,企业需采取合适的风险应对策略以保证项目组合成功,但目前缺少项目组合风险应对策略选择相关方法.基于此,首先结合信息熵和球形模糊集分析并测度风险对战略实现的干扰程度;然后使用网页链接分析方法和决策实验与评价实验室方法对项目组合中双层风险间关联强度进行分析测度;接着根据上述过程确定风险优先级,引用组合心理账户和后悔理论建立以决策者综合效用值最大化的项目组合风险应对决策模型;最后通过案例分析验证所提出方法的有效性和实用性.结果表明:1)风险对战略实现干扰程度以及风险间关联关系对应对策略选择均有影响; 2)不同应对预算下,风险对战略实现干扰权重变化对应对决策的影响程度不同; 3)较少关注风险对战略实现干扰的决策者,倾向选择能更多应对关联较强风险的策略集;更多注重风险对战略实现干扰的决策者,倾向选择能更多应对项目组合层级风险的策略集.     

AHP方法在IT项目组合管理中的应用

首先介绍了项目组合管理的相关知识,接着陈述了层次分析法在项目组合管理中的应用步骤,重点以某IT公司的项目组合管理为例,更具体给出层次分析法在项目管理中的应用,结论表明,采用AHP方法实施项目组合管理可以确保项目与公司战略的一致性,缓解各项目的资源竞争冲突,提高项目成功率和公司的整体收益.     

Simulating the dynamic scheduling of project portfolios

A main challenge in project management is to provide methodologies that facilitate coordination among the projects in a portfolio or in a firm. Each incoming project in an existing portfolio affects its schedule, the resources availability and the planned performance. There are no analytical solutions for the problem of dynamic scheduling of resources for multiple projects in real time. Mathematical approaches, like integer programming or network based techniques, cannot describe the complexity of real problems (multi-projects environments have many interrelated elements), and have difficulties to adapt the analysis to dynamic changes.We propose a multi-agent system, where projects negotiate the procurement of resources through an auction mechanism all over the portfolio life. Both, projects and resources are modelled as agents. Projects demand resources for fulfilling their scheduled planned work, whereas resources offer their capabilities and workforce. This framework allows project portfolio management and the assessment in the decision of acceptance/rejection new projects.     

Designing a hybrid system dynamic model for analyzing the impact of strategic alignment on project portfolio selection

One of the key challenges in project organizations is the alignment of portfolio management with major corporate strategies. Usually, project-based organizations use shared resources to control and plan the project portfolio. Therefore, the exploitation of shared resources and project planning decisions made in this regard can change the progress of projects and affect the success rate of the projects. In this article, the integration of system dynamics with multi-objective decision making is applied to address project portfolio selection. The project portfolio has been modeled using four basic dimensions including technology, complexity, innovation and time sensitivity. The aim is to plan and control the progress of project portfolio while maximizing the strategic adaptation subject to the changes of the human resources. For this purpose, a two-stage MO-PSO with TOPSIS is proposed for portfolio selection problem that can solve real-world instances of the problem in a reasonable time. The result of the sensitivity analysis indicated that the proposed decision support system (DSS) provides insights into the impact of strategic alignment on project portfolio selection. According to the simulation results, the integrated methodology of this research can assist in choosing the suitable projects to achieve a project's strategic goals following the organization strategy.     

图形演化下的图学学科

本文回顾了人类在适应自然、改造自然的过程中对图形的需求以及图形的发展对 社会进步的作用,从图形引出文字、图形引出数字的本源出发,追溯图之源。用一个“形” 、 “意” 、 “元” 、“用”四维结构演绎图形的属性、地位和作用,并从这 4 个维度分析图形的演化过程, 揭示了图形在“形”维度的高维化、“意”维度的深度化、“元”维度的融合化和“用”维度的 渗透化的发展趋势。阐述了在这个图形演化趋势下的图学科学的形成、变革与发展,揭示图学 科学的内涵。在此认知下给出了一个基于图形要素的图学学科框架体系。     

The slippery path to productivity improvement

Productivity tools simply aren't delivering increased productivity even when a project is managed “by the book”. It is demonstrated that there may be more systemic, albeit counterintuitive, causes for the “productivity paradox”. Specifically, the productivity potential of software engineering tools may be squandered not because organizations fail to institute the necessary managerial practices but because the software development environment is a complex social system that causes such practices to have unintended consequences. To support this view, the author uses a system dynamics microworld of the software development process to simulate the long term productivity trend in a a hypothetical project environment managed “by-the-book”. The microworld lets the project team examine possible causes one by one through controlled experimentation and hence allows them to discern true causal relationships in a failed project. The results indicate productivity erosion was unintentionally accelerated by perfectly “good” planning and control practices