改进中国能源平衡表的建议

中国能源平衡表尚不完善,国际能源组织已有成熟方法与约定,建议与国际接轨,并主要从“四破三扩二改一增加”进行改进。“四破”:破“工厂法”,企业填报能源终端消费数据时,要按能源平衡表部门细分进行填表。破“原煤法”,煤炭平衡数据改用经洗选除掉杂质后的商品煤。破“标准煤法”,改tce为toc表示。破“火电煤耗法”,电力的二次能源和一次能源投入,按物理含能量计算其当量;“三扩”:扩细“其他石油制品”、“其他焦化产品”、“其他煤气”、“其他能源”四个产品。扩分“交通运输”、“用作原材料”两个项目。扩大和完善“分析指标”;“两改”:电的一次能源形式改用投入产出法。能源生产和转换部门的生产过程消费不计入终端能源消费;“一增加”即增加“非常规能源”指标。     

Changes in energy requirements of the residential sector in India between 1993–94 and 2006–07

A substantial amount of primary and secondary energy is consumed by the residential sector. Residential energy consumption includes energy required for construction activity and household consumption. Hence there is a need to quantify energy consumption, its significance and causes. Calculating energy intensity of goods and services is the first step towards quantifying the causes. This research is based on the 115 sector classification input–output tables for India, for 1993–94, 1998–99 and 130 sector classification input–output tables for 2003–04 and 2006–07. Energy intensity of sectors related to household consumption has been calculated to analyze the trend between 1993–94 and 2006–07. Indirect energy requirements of Indian households have been assessed in this study from calculations of total primary energy intensity along with private final consumption expenditure. Results indicate that energy consumption has increased for all categories except “medical care and hygiene”. Percentage increase in indirect primary energy consumed by households is maximum for “house building” and “recreation” categories. Finally a complete decomposition analysis of indirect primary energy consumed by households has been carried out based on changing structural composition of the private final consumption expenditure, energy intensity patterns, per capita expenditures on energy and population.     

Analysis of the energy metabolism of urban socioeconomic sectors and the associated carbon footprints: Model development and a case study for Beijing

Cities consume 80% of the world׳s energy; therefore, analyzing urban energy metabolism and the resulting carbon footprint provides basic data for formulating target carbon emission reductions. While energy metabolism includes both direct and indirect consumptions among sectors, few researchers have studied indirect consumption due to a lack of data. In this study, we used input–output analysis to calculate the energy flows among directly linked sectors. Building on this, we used ecological network analysis to develop a model of urban energy flows and also account for energy consumption embodied by the flows among indirectly linked sectors (represented numerically as paths with a length of 2 or more). To illustrate the model, monetary input–output tables for Beijing from 2000 to 2010 were analyzed to determine the embodied energy consumption and associated carbon footprints of these sectors. This analysis reveals the environmental pressure based on the source (energy consumption) and sink (carbon footprint) values. Indirect consumption was Beijing׳s primary form, and the carbon footprint therefore resulted mainly from indirect consumption (both accounting for ca. 60% of the total, though with considerable variation among sectors). To reduce emissions, the utilization efficiency of indirect consumption must improve.     

Economic and environmental gains of China's fossil energy subsidies reform: A rebound effect case study with EIMO model

Energy consumption and efficiency emerged as the hottest topic in the context of China's sustainable development. Energy subsidies and “rebound effect” were closely related to this topic while few combinative studies on them with a focus on China. This paper employed a co-thinking approach, focusing on how the energy subsidies reform could mitigate the rebound effect in China, and how to achieve an “economic and environmental gains” that reduced pecuniary spending, improved the distorted energy market and reduced energy consumption simultaneously. Firstly, with price-gap approach we calculated the total energy subsidies scale of China in 2007, which amounted to582.0 billion CNY; then we detected and identified rebound effect of China energy consumption with the features. Furthermore, based on China 2007 monetary input–output table and energy flow analysis, we compiled a hybrid physical energy input and monetary output model (EIMO) to simulate the mitigation effect of subsidies reform. Results showed that removing energy subsidies would decrease ultimate demand of different economy sectors and reduce the accumulatively physical consumption of coal, oil, natural gas and electricity by 17.74, 13.47, 3.64 and 15.82 million tce, respectively. Finally we discussed relevant policy issues on China's energy subsidies reform in depth.     

Mapping China's flows of emissions in the world's carbon footprint: A network approach of production layers

We propose a combination of a structural path analysis (SPA) with the complex network analysis to capture the existence of different sector or industry clusters in the transmission of carbon emissions from China to the rest of world's economy through imports. We used OECD-ICIO input-output framework and identified different types of communities as boosts and suppliers of carbon emissions by type of industry, type of final demand, and the different stages of production.We have found that some worldwide industries, such as consumption of textiles and wholesale and retail trade, could reduce the emissions generated in China by collaborating with their direct suppliers since they receive a large part of their emissions from the first and second stage of production. However, it is not so easy for other consumption industries, such as food, computers, motor vehicles and most of the service industries, which are more diffuse ones, and incorporate most of their carbon emissions from China from furthest stages of production (3 to 9). In terms of economic policy, this imply that if these industries (or firms) that supply the final demand of the world economy want to reduce a significant part of their emissions generated in China, it should be through establishing collaboration agreements with the suppliers in China that are in the remote stages of the production process, which entails higher transaction costs.     

Energy efficiency and carbon efficiency of tourism industry in destination

This study proposed the measuring models for the energy efficiency and carbon efficiency of the tourism industry in destination by the detailed bottom-up analysis method, the theory of life cycle assessment, and material flow. The Wulingyuan Scenic and Historic Interest Area (WSHIA) in China was chosen as the research area; the energy efficiency and carbon efficiency of tourism industry in the WSHIA were measured and analyzed from 1979 to 2015. The research results showed that energy efficiency and carbon efficiency of tourism sectors and the whole tourism industry were improved with the evolution of the stage of tourism life cycle. There was a big discrepancy in energy efficiency and carbon efficiency among different sectors of tourism industry. Tourism activity had the highest of direct and total energy efficiencies and carbon efficiencies. Compared with the industries, the tourism industry in the WSHIA belonged to the low energy consumption and green low-carbon industry. The energy and environmental policies and the different strategies on the improvement of energy efficiency and carbon efficiency of tourism industry should be formulated and implemented by the government sector of tourism management and the tourism enterprises for green and low-carbon development of tourism destination.     

Effective ways to reduce CO2 emissions from China's heavy industry? Evidence from semiparametric regression models

Using China's province-level panel data from 2005 to 2017, this article uses a semiparametric regression model to investigate CO₂ emissions in China's heavy industry. Empirical results show that while economic growth exerted carbon reduction effects in the eastern region, it stimulated the growth of CO₂ emissions in the central and western regions. This is mainly due to regional differences in industrial structure and the high-tech industry. Energy efficiency has made a greater contribution to reducing CO₂ emissions in the central region because the R&D investment and patent rights granted in this region has grown faster. The energy consumption structure has a more complex impact. It exerts a “pulling first, then restricting” (Ո-shaped) nonlinear effect on CO₂ emissions in the eastern and western regions, but an inverted “N-shaped” effect in the central region. This is mainly due to the differences in the composition of energy consumption across regions. Environmental regulations have a positive “U-shaped” nonlinear impact on CO₂ emissions in the eastern and western regions. It means that environmental regulations help cut down CO₂ emissions in the early stage, and the facilitation effect gradually disappears at the later stage. Conversely, environmental regulations produce an inverted “U-shaped” impact in the central region.     

Construction and application of a performance assessment model for energy conservation and carbon reduction industries

This study primarily focused on investigating energy conservation and carbon reduction performance assessment indexes as policy-making references for screening energy conservation and carbon reduction industries. Based on the perspectives of the value chain, the study classified these industries into energy supply, conversion, and utilization types. The upstream energy supply function was associated with the supply of energy sources; the midstream conversion function, with the conversion of energy sources into energy forms such as electricity or thermal energy; and the downstream utilization function, with the production of the function(s) required by users through electrical power or thermal energy. From the viewpoints of energy conservation and carbon reduction, this study divided the assessment indexes into five categories: energy supply efficiency, conversion efficiency, utilization efficiency, consumption, and carbon emission. This study first explained the investigation of energy conservation and carbon reduction indexes and then constructed an energy conservation and carbon reduction performance assessment model. Finally, as an example, a fuel cell-powered motorcycle developed by the hydrogen power and fuel cell industry was considered in order to estimate actual energy conservation and carbon reduction performance. Biomass fermentation was used to produce the hydrogen supply. The results indicated that this model could both estimate energy consumption and CO₂ emission and analyze major energy conservation and carbon reduction sources for these industries.     

Selected environmental impacts of the technical production of wood chips from poplar short rotation coppice on marginal land

The use of marginal land for Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) might contribute to a sustainable energy supply in future. We assessed the environmental impacts of common production chains for manufacturing wood chips from SRC with poplar, including all the processes necessary to produce and deliver chips to a plant gate in 50 km distance from the field site (“cradle-to-plant gate”).To do so, we carried out a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) including upstream processes. Results showed clearly that the specific environmental impacts were mainly caused by the processes “harvesting” and “transport”. Using a cut-and-chip harvesting system with a forage harvester generated low impacts during harvesting because of its high productivity. Using a cut-and-storage harvesting system with a whole rod harvester, however, didn't require accompanying tractor-trailer units during harvesting and allowed storing stems before chipping thereby, reducing the moisture content to approximately 30%. Consequently, the transport to the plant caused significantly lower environmental impacts at the same distance (50 km) which lead to a better result when looking at the overall production chain (26 vs. 36 kg CO₂-eq Mg_dm⁻¹). Respective energy output to energy input ratios were 23:1 and 26:1.We also analysed the impacts of irrigation and fertigation as they might be options to increase biomass yield. Both treatments lead to considerably increased environmental impacts in all analysed categories which might be balanced only if the biomass yields increase substantially; an effect which could not be verified within the current study.     

Energy requirements of consumption: Urban form,climatic and socio-economic factors,rebounds and their policy implications

Household consumption requires energy to be used at all stages of the economic process, thereby directly and indirectly leading to environmental impacts across the entire production chain. The levels, structure and determinants of energy requirements of household consumption therefore constitute an important avenue of research. Incorporating the full upstream requirements into the analysis helps to avoid simplistic conclusions which would actually only imply shifts between consumption categories without taking the economy wide effects into account. This paper presents the investigation of the direct and indirect primary energy requirements of Australian households, contrasting urban, suburban and rural consumption patterns as well as inter- and intra-regional levels of inequality in energy requirements. Furthermore the spatial and socio-economic drivers of energy consumption for different categories of energy requirements are identified and quantified. Conclusions regarding the relationships between energy requirements, household characteristics, urban form and urbanization processes are drawn and the respective policy implications are explored.     

Environmental analysis of bio-CCS in an integrated oxy-fuel combustion power plant with CO2 transport and storage

Oxy-fuel combustion (OFC) belongs to one of the three commonly known clean coal technologies for which practical application may be in the offing. Similarly to conventional power plants, there is a possibility of biomass co-firing, thus an additional reduction of CO₂ emission is possible. Including the biomass in the fuel mixture of an integrated OFC power plant allows to obtain the so called “neutral” CO₂ status as biomass combustion does not contribute to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. In OFC power plants without biomass co-firing, even if 100% of CO₂ is captured, there are still additional CO₂ emissions in processes like fossil fuel extraction, transportation and preparation. The same assumption applies also to biomass and other materials (e.g. limestone or raw water). A higher share of biomass in the fuel mixture can lead to “negative” CO₂ emissions with may be helpful to compensate the unfulfilled goals in other sectors where reduction is required. The paper presents the system approach to the environmental analysis based on the “input–output” method and both the index of the thermoecological cost and cumulative CO₂ emissions. Thermoecological cost includes, the cumulative exergy consumption of non-renewable energy sources and additional exergy consumption due to harmful emissions to the atmosphere. In order to investigate the impact of bio-CCS (both biomass co-firing and dedicated biomass boilers) on the net thermoecological cost of electricity production and cumulative CO₂ emissions five cases have been analyzed.     

Sustainability development for supply chain management in U.S. petroleum industry by DEA environmental assessment

Environmental assessment and protection are important concerns in modern business. Consumers are interested in environmental protection. They avoid purchasing products from dirt-imaged companies even if their prices are much less than the ones produced by green-imaged companies. The green image is very important for business survivability in our global market. A business concern associated with the green image is how to attain corporate sustainability where companies can attain both economic success and pollution prevention in their operations. There is tradeoff between economic prosperity and environmental concern. To attain a high level of corporate sustainability, companies need to measure the current performance in terms of their operational and environmental achievements. This study proposes a use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for such assessment. The proposed DEA assessment provides corporate leaders and managers with not only the measure of corporate sustainability but also information regarding how to invest for technology innovation for abatement of undesirable outputs (e.g., CO₂). As an application, this study utilizes the proposed approach to measure the corporate sustainability of petroleum firms in the United States. The petroleum industry is functionally separated into integrated and independent companies. The integrated companies, referred to as “Major”, have their large supply chains for both “upstream” (e.g., exploration, development and production of crude oil or natural gas) and “downstream” (e.g., oil tankers, refineries, storages and retails). Meanwhile, the independent companies focus upon the upstream function, but not the downstream, in their business operations. The empirical comparison between the two groups of petroleum firms identifies that the integrated companies outperform the independent companies because a large supply chain incorporated into the former group provides them with both a scale merit in their operations and an opportunity to obtain consumer's opinions on their business operations. Thus, the large supply chain system, covering business functions for upstream and downstream, enhances corporate sustainability in the U.S. petroleum industry. It is easily envisioned that the empirical findings discussed in this study are useful in preparing business strategy and industrial policy for the petroleum industry of not only the United States but also other nations involved in oil and gas production.     

A review on China's wind power accommodation in the background of “Internet+” strategy

The consumption of fossil fuel has resulted in global warming, environmental pollution, and many other crucial problems. Replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy has become an important issue over the recent decades. As a renewable clean energy, wind power is a relatively well‐developed and promising energy method for current technology development in China. Under the background of growing demand for electricity and enhancing awareness for environmental, the “Internet+ wind power” concept has emerged based on both the wind power's characteristics that renewable and non‐polluting, and the rapid development of the Internet in China. Through querying an amount of literature and information, this paper reveals the resource endowment and policy environment about wind power and energy Internet at first. Then, the PEST‐SWOT strategy analysis model is used to analyze the internalities (strengths and weaknesses) and the externalities (opportunities and threats) of “Internet+ wind power”. According to these results, the paper puts forward some measures (development and utilization, business mode) for wind power accommodation. Then some policy recommendations have been proposed. The government should provide favorable conditions for wind power grid with the “Internet+” technology innovation.     

Energy efficiency and economic growth: A retrospective CGE analysis for Canada from 2002 to 2012

The efficiency with which energy is used by firms and households has widespread impacts on economic activity, which in turn has implications for environmental quality and energy security. Using a novel method that could be used for other jurisdictions, we estimate the impact of energy efficiency improvements on Canadian GDP, employment, economic structure, and welfare from 2002 to 2012. We use a counterfactual back-casting method with a sectorally and regionally disaggregated dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model, in effect “reverse calibrating” the model from observed data to isolate the effects of energy efficiency. We estimate that total energy efficiency improvements in Canada during this period increased GDP by 2.0% (0.19%/yr), employment by 2.5% (0.24%/yr) and household welfare by about 1.5% (0.15%/yr). Additionally, energy efficiency improvements reoriented economic structure from capital intense energy supply sectors to relatively labour intense manufacturing and services. We find evidence of widespread “rebound” on an energy expenditure basis across most sectors, and “backfire” (where energy efficiency leads to absolute energy use increases) in oil sands in situ extraction, bitumen upgrading, shale gas extraction, lime production, pulp & paper, and metal smelting, but overall energy use is reduced by energy efficiency improvements over this period.     

The impact of clean energy investments on the Greek economy: An input–output analysis (2010–2020)

The aim of this paper is twofold: first, to calculate the “green” energy investments, by industrial sector, that Greece would need in order to satisfy a number of energy and environmental targets adopted in the context of the European Commission’s energy and climate change package; and second, to calculate the macro-economic impacts of these “green” investments on production and employment in the Greek economy. To this end, the input–output analysis has been exploited for estimating the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic effects associated with the implementation of selected energy conservation measures, the promotion of renewable energy technologies, etc. Our findings show that the required investments would reach the amount of €47.9 billion, over the period 2010–2020. These investments will result in an average annual increase of the national product by €9.4 billion, creating simultaneously 108,000 full-time equivalent jobs for the entire period under consideration. The employment generated per €1 million investment is relatively higher in energy saving projects in buildings and transport in comparison with the development of RES in power generation sector.     

The efficiency of the rational use of energy

From an ecological point of view, the reduction of the “consumption” of energy is the first aim. The reduction of the CO₂-emissions is only a subsidiary aim. On the other hand in industry, the reduction of the costs for energy is the main motive power to increase the efficiency of energy use.Therefore, efficiency may be interpreted in different ways and the understanding of efficiency is led by different criteria. Nevertheless, from a scientifical point of view, an efficient use of energy means the minimization of the input energy for a given energy application. This objective definition has been applied in the German directive for the evaluation of the efficient use of heat in buildings within the “Energie-Einspar-Verordnung 2002” [EnEV – Verordnung über energiesparenden Wärmeschutz und energiesparende Anlagentechnik bei Gebäuden – Bundesgesetzblatt Teil I Nr. 59 vom 21. Nov. 2001. S. 3085 ff.], the German directive for the saving of energy in buildings.In this paper, a criterion for the rational use of energy in industry. The starting point therefore is the exergy and the corresponding input energy. A project for the efficient use of energy in industry that is run in Germany [Schaumann G, Pohl Ch. Transferstelle Bingen Projekt since 2000; www.energie-industrie.de.] is presented and the formulae for the cogeneration of heat-and-power is shown as an example.     

Assessment of the potential future market in Sweden for hydrogen as an energy carrier

This study was performed as a Swedish contribution to the program of the International Energy Agency (IEA) concerning research and development on the production of hydrogen from water. A common framework of the joint IEA-group was applied throughout the work. A survey of the study is given in the report.The study projects future hydrogen markets during the period 1980–2025 in the investigated sectors, estimates the probable range of hydrogen production costs for various manufacturing methods, and evaluates the expected market shares in competition with alternative energy carriers.A general scenario for the economic and industrial development in Sweden during the period was evaluated. The average increase in gross national product was assumed to become 1.6% per year and equal over all society sectors except for residential housing construction and the total energy supply, which are assumed to increase with 0.81 and 0.90% per year, respectively.Three different energy scenarios based on the economic scenario were developed with the following characteristics: an alternative based on nuclear energy; an alternative based on renewable indigenous energy sources; and an alternative based on the present energy picture with free access to imported natural or synthetic fuels. Within each of the three scenarios, an analysis was made of the competitiveness of hydrogen on both the demand and the supply sides of the agreed sectors: chemical industry; steel industry; peak power production; residential and commercial heating; and transportation. Costs were calculated for the production, storage and transmission of hydrogen according to technically feasible methods and were compared to those of alternative energy carriers. Health, environmental and societal implications were also taken into consideration. The results have been used to estimate the market penetration of hydrogen in the regarded sectors.     

Net energy analyses for liquid-dominated and vapor-dominated hydrothermal energy-resource developments

The current status of the disciplines of energy analysis and net energy analysis is briefly reviewed. Various methodological approaches to the evaluation of energy flows in society are described and assessed.

Detailed evaluations of the energy requirements for construction and operation of 100-Mw_e flashedsteam, binary-cycle and total-flow power plant designs for utilization of liquid-dominated hydrothermal reservoirs indicate that the meaningful net energy ratios range from about seven to eleven. Utilization of dry cooling towers in place of evaporative cooling systems may be required in many locations and may reduce the specified net energy ratios by approximately 15%. Indirect energy requirements associated with the supply of external resource inputs necessary for the construction and operation of these electrical-energy generating stations account for approximately 85% of total energy requirements, with the balance being allocated to the direct consumption of fuels.

A similar analysis of the energy requirements for the construction and operation of a 100-Mw_e power plant utilizing a vapor-dominated hydrothermal reservoir leads to net energy ratios for vapor-dominated hydrothermal electrical-power generation stations as high as nineteen. In this case, direct fuel consumption accounts for approximately 24% of the total energy requirements.

The major indirect energy requirements are associated with power plant construction for liquid-dominated developments, while production well drilling contributes most heavily to these requirements of vapor-dominated resource utilization. Direct consumption of fuel is predominately concentrated in production well drilling for both classes of hydrothermal facilities.     

核电在中国中长期能源供应体系中的作用

研究核电发展问题,需要放置于能源电力的宏观体系中予以综合考量。文章研究了中国电力的供需形势,建立了电力供需平衡模型,对2040年之前的电力供需情况进行了预测分析。在综合考虑11类边界条件,并参考主要发达经济体能源发展历史的基础上,建立了中国6类一次能源消费预测模型,对2040年之前的一次能源消费情况进行了预测,给出了“核能低值”、“核能高值”两类预测结果。分析了世界核电的发展历史,对其进行了五个阶段划分,并论述了各阶段的核电发展情况、发展驱动力、影响因素等问题,还研究了美国、法国、德国等三个典型国家的核电发展历史,总结了经验教训。研究了世界铀矿资源量及储用比情况,为衡量铀资源的宏观转化效率,定义了铀资源转化比指标,并对主要经济体进行了对比研究。上述研究的主要结论为:(1)中国化石能源消费将在2030年之前见顶,一次能源消费将进入缓慢增长或维持阶段;(2)中长期来看,核能、非水可再生能源将分担新增能源消费和化石能源替代需求;(3)在电力供应严重过剩的情况下,核电的大规模开工建设预计将延至2025年以后;(4)至2040年,中国一次能源消费总量预计将达到57.4亿吨标准煤当量(tce),其中,核能消费占比在4.5%～7.5%之间,非水可再生能源消费占比在13.6%～16.6%之间;(5)总体来看,世界拥有充足的铀矿资源储备,可满足“铀基”核能的长期发展,此外,2040年之前的铀矿资源价格也将难以回到2007年的高位;(6)中国铀资源转化比仅为世界平均值的56.6%,需要在乏燃料处理及燃料循环利用方面提升技术水平和处理能力。     

从战略高度看待分布式能源——解决中国未来20年低碳发展面临的重大战略问题

以冷热电联供为特色的分布式能源系统(DES/CCHP)是实现低碳发展的重要途径之一,是中国继续和完成工业化、城市化的能源供应保障,也是促进天然气产业链上、中、下游均衡、快速、健康发展,推动中国加速一次能源结构转型的动力。提高占总能耗50%的工业能效的关键,是以工业园区DES/CCHP替代分散的小锅炉。通过DES/CCHP项目可提高占总能耗30%的商住能效,根据估算,每年可有0.3×1012kW·h原用于生活热水的电耗被节省下来。另外,通过减少长距离输电设施的投资建设费用和输变电损耗,可以节省输电投资4160亿元,还可节省煤矿建设投资1500亿元。到2020年,中国每年天然气消耗量将在4000×108m3左右,如果其中2700×108m3都用于与电网调峰相结合的工业、商住DES/CCHP,粗略估算,可替代动力煤9.7×108t,仅此一项就可使全国总能效提高6.8个百分点。再加上其他措施,使总能效提高到接近目前世界平均水平(50%)是很有可能的,同时有可能使2020年中国的煤炭消耗总量降回到30×108t/a的水平。相应还可以减排二氧化碳19×108t/a,加上优化产业结构、提高建筑物和交通能效等方面的贡献,到2020年中国的二氧化碳排放量有可能回落到74×108t/a左右。天然气DES/CCHP路线在社会总投资方面也是低于"以煤为主"路线的,如果以解决中国的能效和碳减排问题为战略目标来看待和发展分布式能源系统,必须着眼于大型项目。发展DES/CCHP的制约因素不是技术和资金,而是各级政府的能源战略观念。