我国经济和社会发展中必须重视石油峰值问题

石油峰值(Peak Oil)是指某一区域(全球、地区、国家、油区等)石油产量的最大值及其来临的时间。世界石油产量到达峰值并不意味着全世界已将石油消耗怠尽,也不意味着人类不可能在地球上再发现新的油田,只是新发现的油田的石油产量越来越无法弥补已开发油田产量的下降,世界石油供应量不可能再增加,不能满足人类日益增长的需求。许多研究表明世界石油产量正在进入峰值平台期,随时都可能出现资源长期短缺的石油危机。我国的石油消费一直以较快的速度增长,石油也许很快成为我国经济发展的瓶颈。本文提出了石油峰值——我国经济和社会发展中必须重视的一个重大问题,希望大家尤其是主管部门和高层决策者充分认识石油峰值的内涵和挑战,高度重视我国面临的潜在的石油危机,认真落实科学发展观、未雨绸缪,提早采取应对策略以实现我国经济社会的可持续发展。     

中国可再生能源现状 障碍与对策——发展可再生能源的战略意义

加速开发可再生能源对实施可持续发展战略具有重要意义。１可以延长化石能源资源的使用年限据世界能源委员会（WEC）和国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）分析，虽然全球化石能源最终可采储量至少还可供人类使用１００年，但开采成本较低的储量将在２１世纪后期耗尽。我国石油资源的保证前景十分严峻。据专家分析，国内石油产量估计２０２０年前后达到峰值，年约１．８亿t，此后逐渐下降，到２０５０年降到不足１亿t，而届时石油需求将达５亿t以上。我国现有重点煤矿区一级经济储量（交通、煤质、地质和开采条件优良）仅５００亿t，２００…     

有关国家和地区已着手应对石油峰值

综合有关方面的预测,世界石油产量峰值来临的时间要早于专家们的预测。石油峰值必将对石油工业,甚至对世界经济、政治和军事都带来一系列的冲击。在缓解石油峰值带来的不利影响上,一些国家和地区制定了应对措施,以缓解廉价石油的终结和产量峰值的到来所产生的危机。本文以瑞典、美国、澳大利亚和英国等四个国家的五个研究机构所编制的五份报告或方案为依据,进行总结和归纳,对这些措施进行了比较分析。     

我国目前的能源状况

目前我国已探明的石油可供开采不到20年，天然气可供开采不足60年，煤炭可供开采不到200年，主要矿产资源人均占有量不足世界平均水平的一半。特别是石油资源，进口量逐步上升，如不采取积极有效的措施，到2020年我国对国际石油市场的依存度将达到50％左右。     

从石油峰值的方法论剖析石油枯竭说

石油产量峰值预测的数学模型方法是对处于一个没有明显储产量补充的封闭条件下的简单对象,以趋势外推法预测其产量变化。该方法不能正确预测复杂多变、不断发展,而又受社会因素影响巨大的大油区（如中东）、大产油国（如中国）和全球的石油储产量变化。最后说明即使出现石油峰值,也并不意味着石油的枯竭,只是由于社会进步推动了多能源互补,促使以石油为能源之首的“石油时代”让位于“后石油时代”。     

非洲石油资源的争夺正在加剧

各国对非洲大陆油气资源的争夺战已上演,与此同时非洲相邻的石油资源国之间的矛盾也日益凸显。刚果民主共和国开放了对艾伯特湖的石油勘探,但其邻国乌干达正对法国石油巨头道达尔和中国海洋石油公司施压。乌干达在2010年晚些时候开始石油生产,至2015年石油产量将达到35×104bbl/d,成为非洲第四大石油生产国。艾伯特湖盆地的石油勘探     

未来我国石油供需矛盾及其解决对策

我国对石油的需求持续攀升,而国内石油产量一直保持缓慢增长,导致石油对外依存度逐年上升。假定未来我国石油消费量等于石油需求量,国内生产总值每年以7.177%的速度增长,石油需求弹性保持在0.5的水平,采用情景分析法、能源需求弹性法和时间序列法对我国未来几年的石油需求、供给进行预测。预测结果表明,我国未来几年石油供需缺口将越来越大,2020年会达到约3.9×108t,形势很不乐观。鉴于此,建议首先要立足国内,鼓励低品位石油资源开发,保障石油基本供应;其次要放眼海外,调整战略重点,弥补我国石油供需缺口,三大石油公司应在稳定中亚、非洲市场的基础上,大力进军南美、中东和亚太市场,加强海外油气合作,实现海外规模化经营;同时要调整能源结构,发展清洁能源,缓解国内石油供需矛盾;另外要提高能源使用效率,减少能源整体需求;还应该循序渐进、有计划分阶段地建立适合我国具体情况的完备的战略石油储备体系,并尽快出台石油储备法。     

我国石油供需发展历程及预测分析

石油作为重要的战略能源与基础性产品,对国民经济的发展将起到至关重要的作用,尤其在经济危机之后国际局势动荡,使我国的石油市场受到严重影响。从产量、进出口和国际局势的影响等3方面对我国石油供给发展状况进行介绍,并结合石油需求发展状况和石油安全对我国石油供需发展历程进行科学分析。在此基础上．选取2000～2012年这13年的石油产量和消费量为原始数据,运用灰色预测法和线性回归分析法分别对我国2013～2020年的石油产量和消费量进行预测。结果表明,我国石油消费量的增长速度明显高于产量的增长速度．与持续膨胀的石油需求相比,我国石油的自给能力几乎已经达到了极限,供不应求的状态将日益严重。提出了有针对性的建议：重视和增加石油储备资金投入,加大勘探力度和技术水平,全方位保证我国石油供应安全;走能源多元化道路,建立节约型消费模式,抑制石油消费地过快增长;开发下游市场,贯彻“走出去”战略,有效弥补国内石油供需缺口。     

世界石油天然气领域现状及前景分析

该文首先分析了全球石油领域基本与热点问题,对全球油气资源分布、产量分布、石油加工能力等发展现状进行了描述,对2010～2035年全球石油、天然气资源需求进行了分析。依据石油产业发展历程所揭示的事实和规律,从科技进步和石油资源不可再生的角度,对全球未来油气资源的潜力进行了分析,指出海洋石油资源勘探开发尚有很大空间。面临石油资源终将走向枯竭,提出早敲响警钟早主动,低碳生活、节能减排、发展新能源是人类面临的共同课题。     

《石油替代综论》出版发行

目前全世界化石能源的消费结构仍然以石油为主，然而仅仅过去的一百余年中，尤其是近几十年的大量开采，累积开采的原油已经达到目前发现和确认的可采石油资源的1／2左右。人们突然认识到这种资源将面临短缺，2035年前后将进入“后石油时代”。我们将不得不深入思考石油资源需求与供应的矛盾，研究解决石油替代这一影响到今后整个世界可持续发展的重大课题。     

System dynamics model of Hubbert Peak for China's oil

 American geophysicist M. King Hubbert in 1956 first introduced a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production for oil of USA. Since then, a fierce debate ensued on the so-called Hubbert Peak, including also its methodology. This paper proposes to use the generic STELLA model to simulate Hubbert Peak, particularly for the Chinese oil production. This model is demonstrated as being robust. We used three scenarios to estimate the Chinese oil peak: according to scenario 1 of this model, the Hubbert Peak for China's crude oil production appears to be in 2019 with a value of 199.5 million tonnes, which is about 1.1 times the 2005 output. Before the peak comes, Chinese oil output will grow by about 1–2% annually, after the peak, however, the output will fall. By 2040, the annual production of Chinese crude oil would be equivalent to the level of 1990. During the coming 20 years, the crude oil demand of China will probably grow at the rate of 2–3% annually, and the gap between domestic supply and total demand may be more than half of this demand.     

What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies—A STELLA model of Hubbert Peak

American geophysicist M. King Hubbert in 1956 first introduced a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production for oil of USA. In his 1956 article “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels”, in which he predicted the production peak for the USA, Hubbert used 80 pages of differential equations to draw his conclusions. That earned him some criticism, because only those with profound mathematical knowledge could understand. Hubbert presented in his 1982 article, “Techniques of Prediction as Applied to the Production of Oil and Gas” an alternative method that was much more accessible. Since then, a fierce debate ensued on the so-called Hubbert Peak, including also its methodology.     

China's oil reserve forecast and analysis based on peak oil models

In order to forecast future oil production it is necessary to know the size of the reserves and use models. In this article, we use the typical Peak Oil models, the Hu–Chen–Zhang model usually called HCZ model and the Hubbert model, which have been used commonly for forecasting in China and the world, to forecast China's oil Ultimate Recovery (URR). The former appears to give more realistic results based on an URR for China of 15.64 billion tons. The study leads to some suggestions for new policies to meet the unfolding energy situation.     

A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production.In this paper, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve. In addition, the sum of multiple-Hubbert curves (two cycles) is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production (crude and natural gas liquid (NGL)).Taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves, this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production, referring to crude oil and NGL, should occur.In particular, by assuming a range of 2250–3000 gigabarrels (Gb) for ultimately recoverable conventional oil, our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29.3–32.1 Gb/year.     

Testing Hubbert

The Hubbert theory of oil depletion, which states that oil production in large regions follows a bell-shaped curve over time, has been cited as a method to predict the future of global oil production. However, the assumptions of the Hubbert method have never been rigorously tested with a large, publicly available data set. In this paper, three assumptions of the modern Hubbert theory are tested using data from 139 oil producing regions. These regions are sub-national (United States state-level, United States regional-level), national, and multi-national (subcontinental and continental) in scale. We test the assumption that oil production follows a bell-shaped curve by generating best-fitting curves for each region using six models and comparing the quality of fit across models. We also test the assumptions that production over time in a region tends to be symmetric, and that production is more bell-shaped in larger regions than in smaller regions.     

A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

This paper introduces two typical multicyclic models: the Hubbert model and the Generalized Weng model. The model-solving process of the two is expounded, and it provides the basis for an empirical analysis of the world's conventional oil production. The results for both show that the world's conventional oil (crude+NGLs) production will reach its peak in 2011 with a production of 30 billion barrels (Gb). In addition, the forecasting effects of these two models, given the same URR are compared, and the intrinsic characteristics of these two models are analyzed. This demonstrates that for specific criteria the multicyclic Generalized Weng model is an improvement on the multicyclic Hubbert model. Finally, based upon the resultant forecast for the world's conventional oil, some suggestions are proposed for China's policy makers.     

中国油气资源发展现状面临的问题和对策

进入20世纪90年代以来,我国石油储量呈现高基值稳定增长态势,年均新增石油可采储量1.5亿t左右,产量稳步上升。预测新区储量增长将持续稳定;全国产量将持续稳定。最新初步评价结果,中国天然气最终探明天然气可采资源量14万亿m3左右。目前我国天然气储量高速增长,产量快速上升,但勘探尚处于早期阶段。预计我国天然气储量还将快速稳步增长。到2020年底我国天然气可采储量将达到5.6万亿m3,探明程度为40％。产量还将快速增长,国内天然气产量2010年达到800亿m3,2020年达到1200亿m3。通过多年的努力,我国油气科技也获得了长足的发展,有力的促进了储量的增长。在油气储量高速增长的同时,我国的油气发展也面临的一系列问题。针对这些问题,笔者提出了若干中国油气可持续发展的思路,包括加大勘探力度,发展前陆盆地、大型古隆起、大型地层岩性带、隐蔽油气藏和海域等领域;加快天然气发展,改善能源结构;扩大国际交流与合作;发展非常规资源,鼓励利用替代能源;采取严厉的节能措施等。通过这些措施的实施,我国石油天然气工业将可持续的发展。     

Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve

A logistic function is used to characterize peak and ultimate production of global crude oil and petroleum-derived liquid fuels. Annual oil production data were incrementally summed to construct a logistic curve in its initial phase. Using a curve-fitting approach, a population-growth logistic function was applied to complete the cumulative production curve. The simulated curve was then deconstructed into a set of annual oil production data producing an “idealized” Hubbert curve. An idealized Hubbert curve (IHC) is defined as having properties of production data resulting from a constant growth-rate under fixed resource limits. An IHC represents a potential production curve constructed from cumulative production data and provides a new perspective for estimating peak production periods and remaining resources. The IHC model data show that idealized peak oil production occurred in 2009 at 83.2 Mb/d (30.4 Gb/y). IHC simulations of truncated historical oil production data produced similar results and indicate that this methodology can be useful as a prediction tool.     

Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model

The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC.