Seismic probabilistic risk assessment and its impact on margin studies

In recent years a number of seismic probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants have been conducted. These studies have highlighted the significance of seismic events to the overall plant risk and have identified several dominant contributors to the seismic risk. It has been learnt from the seismic PRAs that the uncertainty in the seismic hazard results contribute to the large uncertainty in the core damage and severe release frequencies. A procedure is needed to assess the seismic safety of a plant which is somewhat removed from the influence of the uncertainties in seismic hazard estimates. In the last two years, seismic margin review methodologies have been developed based on the results and insights from the seismic probabilistic risk assessments. They focus on the question of how much larger an earthquake should be beyond the plant design basis before it compromises the safety of the plant. An indicator of the plant seismic capacity called the High Confidence Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF) capacity, is defined as the level of earthquake for which one could state with high confidence that the plant will have a low probability of severe core damage. The seismic margin review methodologies draw from the seismic PRAs, experience in seismic analyses, testing and actual earthquakes in order to minimize the review effort. The salient steps in the review consists of preliminary screening of components and systems, performance of detailed seismic walkdowns and evaluation of seismic margins for components, systems and plant.     

Improvement of the seismic safety of existing nuclear power plants by an increase of the component seismic capacity: A case study

This case study produces the scenario earthquakes for an example nuclear power plant (NPP) site and suggests the effective seismic capacity of safety-related equipment and components which significantly contribute to a core damage to improve the seismic safety of an existing NPP by using a probabilistic safety assessment. The response spectra for the scenario earthquakes show greater spectral accelerations than those for the design response spectrum in the frequency range higher than about 12 Hz. In order to improve the seismic safety of an example NPP, the effects of the seismic capacity of safety-related equipment and components on the core damage frequency (CDF) are investigated, and their effective seismic capacities are determined. The results of the case study show that an increase of the seismic capacity of the equipment reduces the CDF considerably. The effective seismic capacities for the diesel generator, offsite power, condensate storage tank and battery rack are determined as 0.84, 0.35, 0.63 and 0.63 g, respectively.     

Methodology and results of the seismic probabilistic safety assessment of Krško Nuclear Power Plant

A seismic IPEEE (Individual Plant Examination for External Events) was performed for the Kr

Full-size image

ko plant. The methodology adopted is the seismic PSA (probabilistic safety assessment). The Kr

Full-size image

ko NPP is located on a medium to high seismicity site. The PSA study described here includes all the steps in the PSA sequence, i.e. reassessment of site hazard, calculation of plant structures response including soil–structure interaction, seismic plant walkdowns, probabilistic seismic fragility analysis of plant structures and components, and quantification of seismic core damage frequency (CDF). Relay chatter analysis and soil stability studies were also performed. The seismic PSA described here is limited to the analysis of CDF (level 1 PSA). The subsequent determination and quantification of plant damage states, containment behaviour and radioactive releases to the outside (level 2 PSA) have been performed for the Kr

Full-size image

ko NPP but are not further described in this paper. The results of the seismic PSA study indicates that, with some upgrades suggested by the PSA team, the seismic induced CDF is comparable with most US and Western Europe NPPs located in high seismic areas.     

Seismic damage hazard analysis for requalification of nuclear power plant structures: methodology and application

A methodology for the evaluation of the annual probability of occurrence of post-elastic seismic damage in realistic structures is presented. The seismic damage hazard analysis (SDHA) is carried out here by coupling conventional seismic hazard analysis (SHA) for the site and the structural response to earthquakes of different intensities. The structural performance is statistically investigated by conducting appropriate non-linear dynamic analyses for a limited set of real ground-motion records that might potentially pose a threat to the structure at the site. The merging of these two approaches permits calculation of the seismic hazard faced by the structure in direct damage terms. The methodology is presented in this paper with the aid of a simple illustrative case study where the annual probability of damage and, eventually, failure of a power house steel structure is computed. This methodology can find practical applications in seismic retrofit of nuclear power plant structures and in the evaluation of seismic damage hazards in new structure designs.     

堆芯补水箱地震易损性分析

本文采用有限元软件ANSYS建立AP1000核电站堆芯补水箱（CMT）三维有限元模型，通过模态分析获得其结构特征，采用时程分析法较为真实地模拟CMT地震下响应。通过地震易损性数学模型，对CMT的各项易损性参数进行分析，获得了其抗震能力中值A_m、随机性标准差β_R以及不确定性标准差β_U，计算出其高置信度低失效概率（HCLPF）值。结果表明：CMT的HCLPF值明显高于设计安全停堆地震强度0.3g，说明其具有较高的抗震能力，且HCLPF值略高于采用确定论方法得到的值。对易损性参量误差敏感性分析发现β_R取值变化对CMT的条件失效概率和HCLPF值影响较小，可简化部分随机性误差的考虑，使得易损性分析更简洁。     

PRA-Based SMA: the First Tool toward a Risk-Informed Approach to the Seismic Design of the IRIS

International Reactor Innovative and Secure (IRIS) is an advanced, modular, medium-power PWR with an integral primary system layout. As part of the “safety-by-design_” philosophy that inspired the project from the very beginning, a risk-informed approach to its design phase is being adopted and a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is being used as an active tool in pursuing an advanced level of safety. Within this framework, a preliminary PRA-based seismic margin assessment (SMA) has been conducted to assess the ability of the IRIS standard design to respond to seismic events. A high confidence of low probability of failure at the core damage sequence level and then at the entire plant level is the primary result of the SMA model; in the end, it will have to ensure that IRIS can withstand the review-level earthquake of 0.5 g which is consistent with the upper bin level of the NUREG/CR-4334.1) In this preliminary phase of its development, in which the core of the quantitative data is critically extracted from the SMA of other PWR designs, the IRIS SMA model can be seen as a first step toward the development of an extensive seismic PRA model.     

Seismic considerations in siting and design of power plants

A methodology which provides guidelines for the preliminary evaluation of the safety of nuclear power stations subjected to strong vibratory ground motions from earthquakes is outlined. The methodology includes a procedure for estimating a spectral envelope of ground motion at the reactor site. On the basis of this ground motion the seismic response of structural systems and equipment of the power plant can be estimated. A comparison of the expected seismic response of these systems with their strength and functional capabilities yields an evaluation of the safety of the power plant systems studied.     

快堆燃料组件抗震分析流体附加质量计算方法研究

浸没在液态钠中的快堆堆芯组件在地震作用下发生振动,可能导致组件结构损坏或堆芯结构变形,从而影响反应堆结构完整性和安全.流体使该振动表现为强烈的非线性,因此,研究地震引起的流固耦合效应对快堆抗震分析十分重要.本文主要研究流固耦合问题中附加质量的计算方法,该方法由Westergaard首先提出,是一种考虑水体对结构作用的简化动力学计算方法,它将动水压力等效成质量附加在结构上,质量等效原则自提出在各行业得到广泛应用,但缺乏详细理论推导.本文首先推导出附加质量公式,并对该公式进行有效性分析;接着对单根和两根组件用CASTEM在空气和水中进行建模;最后将频率、碰撞力分别与试验值比较.结果表明,计算值和试验值吻合.     

Design development of the HTGR core and its support structure seismic considerations

This paper discusses the development of the core support structure design from that employed on Fort St Vrain to recently announced contracts by Philadelphia Electric, Delmarva Power and Light and Southern California Edison for the large HTGR. Particular emphasis is given to the seismic considerations in the design of the structure for the large HTGR. The overall configuration of each reactor type is critically compared. Although similar components are employed, the basic difference in layout configuration results in significant conceptual differences in the structural and mechanical requirements of the core support components. The configuration and major components for the large reactor are described in some detail. The essential features and function of components are discussed. The graphite components in the core support floor and permanent reflector are designed to form a tight array during reactor normal operating conditions. This composite structure resists compressive loading due to differential gas forces and concrete pressure vessel movement. This tight array concept has important advantageous effects on primary coolant flow distribution and seismic capability.The paper discusses the inherent requirements and methodology in developing a standard plant design for high seismic sites. A design suitable for 0.15 g operating basis earthquake and 0.25 g safe shutdown earthquake has been developed which is applicable for over 80% of the expected sites in the USA. The HTGR core and support structure consists of many thousand graphite elements. It behaves as an inelastic body having random response when subjected to seismic excitation. The paper describes simplified analytical models which have been developed to investigate this phenomenon. An overview of a test program to substantiate and correlate with the analytical models is provided. The program addresses the interelement collision forces and frequencies of elements within the core and the load/deflection at the boundary. Various one, two and three-dimensional scale models have been tested. A summary of the objectives of the program is provided.     

Seismic analysis and fracture evaluation of stabilized core shroud

This paper deals with the seismic analysis and fracture evaluation of a stabilized core shroud in a boiling water reactor of nuclear power plant. To study the adequacy of original seismic loadings, the dynamic behaviors of core shrouds with cracks, without cracks and with stabilizers are analyzed. Seismic analysis of a lumped-mass model of reactor internals is then performed to obtain the seismic loadings around various weldments of the repaired core shroud. The interaction between the core internals and this repaired core shroud is thus taken into account in this study. Further, fracture analysis of the stabilized core shroud is performed to obtain the stress intensity factors along the crack front of horizontal welds based on these seismic loadings. The computed results show that the influence of existing cracks in the stabilized core shroud is insignificant on the overall structural integrity.     

考虑地基岩土参数不确定性的核电厂结构随机地震反应分析

在考虑土-结构相互作用(SSI)效应的情况下,引入随机地震反应分析方法,探讨地基岩土参数的不确定性对核电厂地震响应的影响.基于ANSYS程序,采用常数阻抗法,通过设置边界弹簧和阻尼来考虑地基土的作用,并通过设置弹簧和阻尼参数的不确定性,来模拟岩土动态参数的不确定性.针对某1000MW级压水堆核电站反应堆厂房结构,进行随机地震反应的数值仿真分析,并将随机反应结果与确定论分析结果进行了对比.结果表明,随机分析方法是确定论分析方法的有益补充,二者结合能更合理地反映参数的不确定性对结构地震响应的影响.     

Structural integrity assessment of the reactor pressure vessel under the external reactor vessel cooling condition

Since the suggestion of external reactor vessel cooling (ERVC), the effects of melting and cooling on the response of structural integrity of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) under core melting accident conditions have been investigated. To investigate the initial behavior of RPV lower head and the effects of analysis conditions on the structural integrity of RPV, the transient analysis is utilized considering the transient state. To obtain an analogy with real phenomena, the material properties were determined by combining and modifying the existing results considering phase transformation and temperature dependency. The temperature and stress analyses are performed for core melting accident by using ABAQUS. Finally, the potential for vessel damage is discussed using the Larson-Miller curve and damage rule. In addition, the results by transient analysis are compared with those by steady state analysis and the effects of analysis conditions on structural integrity are reviewed.     

采用变化附加阻尼的快堆堆芯组件抗震分析方法的研究

对快堆堆芯组件进行的抗震分析需要考虑冷却剂与堆芯组件之间的流固耦合作用。在之前的分析中,大多数人将流体附加阻尼处理为定值。实际上冷却剂对组件的作用还随着组件间的间隙变化而变化,其带来的附加阻尼应为变量。为更准确地模拟堆芯组件的振动,本文采用变化附加阻尼对快堆堆芯组件的抗震分析方法进行了研究。建立了快堆堆芯单排（5根）堆芯组件的抗震分析计算模型,对该模型进行了附加阻尼为定值和随间隙变化两种情况下的抗震分析,结果显示了考虑变化附加阻尼的堆芯组件抗震分析方法的可行性与有效性。本文所使用的模拟方法更为贴近堆芯组件的振动情况,为更为真实地模拟快堆堆芯组件的地震响应打下基础,这也有助于减少结构设计的保守性,具有一定的工程价值。     

核电站环形吊车抗震计算分析

应用有限元分析软件ANSYS建立了核电站环形吊车结构的三维计算模型,在模态分析的基础上,以环形吊车所在的安全壳标高40.0 m处的地震反应谱作为输入,对环形吊车结构进行了地震响应分析计算.计算结果表明,地震动作用下环形吊车的垂直位移和应力响应比较小,但水平位移和应力响应比较大,原因是环形吊车水平方向1阶弯曲振动固有频率位于水平地震反应谱最大值频率区间附近;环形吊车结构在地震动作用下能满足抗震设计强度要求,应力集中处的最大应力小于材料屈服极限.     

HTGR core auxiliary cooling system availability and reliability

Using fault tree techniques, a quantitative estimate is made to predict both the start-up availability and operational reliability of the core auxiliary cooling system (CACS) of an HTGR following the postulated, simultaneous occurrence of a design basis depressurization accident (DBDA) and the complete loss of main loop cooling (LOMLC). The effects of a postulated, concurrent loss of offsite power are considered as well. Several potential common mode failures are identified. The limited availability of data presents a problem to numerical evaluation and estimates of uncertainty are at best crude. To provide a basis for measure of this uncertainty, the fault trees were solved using, on a consistent basis, either ‘optimistic’ failure rates, ‘pessimistic’ failure rates, or mean values (the geometric mean).Generally, about 80% of the failure rate data was larger than the ‘optimistic’ value, while only 20% was larger than the ‘pessimistic’ value. Predicated on a variety of assumptions, many of which may be unduly pessimistic, the CACS unavailability following a postulated DBDA and LOMLC has been estimated to be between 4 × 10⁻⁷ and 3 × 10⁻⁵ for the 2000 MW (th) HTGR and between 5 × 15⁻⁷ and 5 × 10⁻⁵ for the 3000 MW (th) HTGR. At the end of 300 hr, the estimated probability that the CACS will not leave sufficient core cooling capacity varies between 9 × 10⁻⁵ and 4 × 10⁻² for the smaller plant and 3 × 10⁻⁴ and 6 × 10⁻² for the larger plant. If it is further postulated that offsite power is concurrently lost, then the estimated mean unavailability at start-up is 3 × 10⁻³ for the 2000 MW (th) plant. The estimated mean probability that the CACS of the smaller plant will not be available at start-up and not be operational after 300 hr is 8 × 10⁻².     

Level-1, -2 and -3 PSA for AHWR

In nuclear reactor probabilistic safety analyses (PSAs), risk is usually defined by the frequency and magnitude of radioactive releases to the environment (Generic CANDU, 2002). An integrated Level-1, -2 and -3 PSA have been carried out for thorium based natural circulation driven advanced heavy water reactor (AHWR). A Level-1 PSA models accident sequences up to the point at which the reactor core either reaches a stable condition or becomes severely damaged, releasing large amounts of radionuclides into the containment. The probabilistic aspects of the analysis focus on the performance and reliability of nuclear plant systems and station staff in response to plant upsets. A Level-2 PSA examines severe reactor accidents through a combination of probabilistic and deterministic approaches, in order to determine the release of radionuclides from containment, including the physical processes that are involved in the loss of structural integrity of the reactor core (Generic CANDU, 2002). A Level-3 PSA goes through the short and long term (radiological) effects on the public (Fullwood, 2000). In this study the risk associated with internal events is only addressed. In the first phase, Level-1 PSA has been carried out to identify postulated initiating events (PIEs) which may lead to severe core damage (SCD) for the reactor. In the second phase, a Level-2 PSA examines two enveloping severe accidents through a combination of probabilistic and deterministic approaches and determines the release of radionuclides from containment. In the third phase, a Level-3 PSA is carried out for the transport of radionuclides through the environment and for the evaluation of public health risk for the two scenarios considered. The salient findings are presented in the paper.     

Fragility estimation for seismically isolated nuclear structures by high confidence low probability of failure values and bi-linear regression

A method for the fragility estimation of seismically isolated nuclear power plant structure is proposed. The relationship between the ground motion intensity parameter (e.g. peak ground velocity or peak ground acceleration) and the response of isolated structures is expressed in terms of a bi-linear regression line, whose coefficients are estimated by the least-square method in terms of available data on seismic input and structural response. The notion of high confidence low probability of failure (HCLPF) value is also used for deriving compound fragility curves for coupled subsystems.     

The contribution of control systems in LWR safety

The objective of this paper is to estimate the effects of non-safety-grade control systems in light water reactors (LWRs) on the overall likelihood of accidents leading to severe core damage or core melt, as determined from operating experience. One hundred ninety operational events which involve failures of non-safety-grade control systems that have occurred at commercial PWR plants during 1969–1981 and which are considered to be precursors to potential severe core damage have been identified; eighty such events have been identified for BWR plants. These events are treated as initiating or concurrent events to be fit into appropriate event trees, which are then quantified using component failure rates and system unavailabilities taken from available PRA studies to estimate the frequency of severe core damage arising from non-safety-grade control system failures. An example is worked out in detail. Considerable uncertainty is introduced into the results by the choice of system and operator failure rates and the results reported herein are considered preliminary. No allowance is made in these estimates for plant changes made because of operational experience.     

安全壳外挂水箱结构强度分析

我国自主设计的第3代核电站安全壳外挂水箱用于超设计基准事故下内层安全壳的长期排热,这是确保安全壳完整、核电厂安全的重要设施。因此,有必要对外挂水箱在极限安全地震动与温度异常工况组合作用下的结构强度进行分析。建立带有外挂水箱的外层安全壳有限元模型,开展网格敏感性分析,并通过模态分析研究结构的振动特性。采用时程分析法,对结构同时施加温度和地震动载荷,基于流固耦合方法分析水体与结构的相互作用,研究外挂水箱结构的地震动响应以及水箱内水体振荡特性。研究表明,水体在水箱凹沉处水面振荡幅度较大,在EL Centro地震动、人工合成地震动和长周期地震动工况下外挂水箱的最大拉应变和最大压应变绝对值均小于C60混凝土许用应变值。