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James G. Speight 《Petroleum Science and Technology》2013,31(6):v-vii
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James Speight 《Petroleum Science and Technology》2013,31(2):217-219
Abstract The intricate dynamics of world oil production are traditionally modeled by a single differential equation, the Hubbert model, arguably too simple in nature. In this article, the Hubbert model is extended to higher-order models which break the symmetry of the Hubbert curve, one of its main controversial features. Our numerical results exhibit a shift of the peak into the future followed by a steeper decline in production, resembling recent production curves of some natural gas fields. Finally, a new supply-demand-reserves model is introduced which is capable of reproducing the US peak, based on more realistic assumptions for production changes. 相似文献
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