Production sharing contract: An analysis based on an oil price stochastic process

Assuming that oil price follows the stochastic processes of Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) or the Mean-Reverting Process (MRP), this paper takes the net present value (NPV) as an economic index and models the PSC in 11 different scenarios by changing the value of each contract element (i.e. royalty, cost oil, profit oil as well as income tax). Then the NPVs are shown in probability density graphs to investigate the effect of different elements on contract economics. The results show that under oil price uncertainty the influence of profit oil and income tax on NPV are more significant than those of royalty and cost oil, while a tax holiday could improve the contractor’s financial status remarkably. Results also show that MRP is more appropriate for cases with low future oil price volatility, and GBM is best for high future oil price volatility.     

Quantification of Oil Price Uncertainty in Economic Evaluation Using Sequential Gaussian Simulation

In this paper, we propose improved methodology for quantifying the uncertainty in petroleum economic evaluations due to uncertainty in future oil prices. Conventional “hockey stick” price forecasts commonly used in industry significantly underestimate uncertainty because they do not reproduce the volatility inherent in oil prices. Some authors have proposed stochastic methods, such as the bootstrap method, to better model oil price volatility. A disadvantage of the bootstrap method, however, is that it can produce price realizations with unrealistically low or high prices. To address this shortcoming, we present two stochastic methods that honor both the historical distribution of oil prices as well as the historically observed variability in oil prices.

The first is an approximate method in which multiple future price realizations are taken directly from different windows of historical uninflated price data. The method is easy to apply and can provide greater insights into the uncertainty and risks associated with project economic evaluation. However, this method can potentially overestimate uncertainty in oil prices and should be used judiciously.

The second method uses sequential Gaussian simulation to generate equiprobable future oil price realizations consistent with both the frequency distribution and temporal variability of historical prices. Although the method is more difficult to apply, it provides a more statistically sound basis for quantifying uncertainty.

The improved methods are compared to conventional methods for three synthetic cases derived from the literature and a field case. Results demonstrate that conventional methods underestimate oil price uncertainty more severely for projects with accelerated cash flow streams, which characterize most petroleum development projects. This indicates that probabilistic methods for quantifying uncertainty in oil prices, such as the sequential Gaussian simulation method proposed here, are needed to provide operators with reliable quantifications of the uncertainties and risks associated with individual projects, which should enable improved investment decision making.     

石油开发项目实物期权评价方法

石油开发投资具有可延迟性，这一特点使得石油开发项目具有灵活性价值，科学评估石油开发中延迟期权的价值，可使项目评估结果更为客观可靠。项目评估过程中，对开发方案所设计的未来各年产量进行套期保值，并假设无技术不确定性，采用原油价格服从几何布朗运动、原油便利收益服从均值回复运动的原油价格波动模型，在此基础上，建立石油开发项目无风险折现现金流模型，并采用LSM算法确定石油开发延迟期权的价值。实例分析表明：净现值小于零的开发项目可能具有开发价值，但立即实施一个净现值大于零的项目可能不是最优决策；项目开发价值与可延迟期限正相关，但并不随可延迟期限的增加而一直增加。图2参17     

Inverted Hockey Stick Method Quantifies Price Uncertainty in Petroleum Investment Evaluation

In this paper, we present a new method for quantifying the uncertainty of economic projections due to uncertainty in future oil prices. Traditionally, the petroleum industry has employed what are known as “hockey stick” price forecasts, i.e., monotonically increasing price profiles, in economic calculations to evaluate investment opportunities. Calculations are often run using most-likely, optimistic, and pessimistic price profiles in an attempt to quantify the uncertainty in the resulting economic indicators. These conventional hockey stick methods significantly underestimate uncertainty because they do not reproduce the volatility inherent in oil prices. Stochastic methods that attempt to model price volatility have been used successfully and indicate that there is considerably more uncertainty in oil and gas development projects than has been previously recognized. However, many operators do not use stochastic methods for modeling oil prices, most likely because they require more time and effort to implement than conventional methods.

The Inverted Hockey Stick method presented herein is similar to conventional methods in that only three price realizations are run to quantify uncertainty. However, the high and low cases are designed to better capture the range of possible future price paths. Uncertainty ranges for economic indicators predicted by the new method are comparable to 70-95% probability ranges predicted by the stochastic bootstrap method, significantly greater than the 32-42% ranges predicted by conventional methods. This new method can be easily incorporated into existing economic modeling systems. Recognition of the greater uncertainty in oil and gas investment opportunities, both upside as well as downside, should improve investment decision making.     

Inverted Hockey Stick Method Quantifies Price Uncertainty in Petroleum Investment Evaluation

Abstract

In this paper, we present a new method for quantifying the uncertainty of economic projections due to uncertainty in future oil prices. Traditionally, the petroleum industry has employed what are known as “hockey stick” price forecasts, i.e., monotonically increasing price profiles, in economic calculations to evaluate investment opportunities. Calculations are often run using most-likely, optimistic, and pessimistic price profiles in an attempt to quantify the uncertainty in the resulting economic indicators. These conventional hockey stick methods significantly underestimate uncertainty because they do not reproduce the volatility inherent in oil prices. Stochastic methods that attempt to model price volatility have been used successfully and indicate that there is considerably more uncertainty in oil and gas development projects than has been previously recognized. However, many operators do not use stochastic methods for modeling oil prices, most likely because they require more time and effort to implement than conventional methods.

The Inverted Hockey Stick method presented herein is similar to conventional methods in that only three price realizations are run to quantify uncertainty. However, the high and low cases are designed to better capture the range of possible future price paths. Uncertainty ranges for economic indicators predicted by the new method are comparable to 70–95% probability ranges predicted by the stochastic bootstrap method, significantly greater than the 32–42% ranges predicted by conventional methods. This new method can be easily incorporated into existing economic modeling systems. Recognition of the greater uncertainty in oil and gas investment opportunities, both upside as well as downside, should improve investment decision making.     

海洋结构钢材综合单价指标的测定

在海上油气田开发工程前期研究中,结构钢材量是一个综合吨位的概念,这给钢材综合单价的判断与采用带来了很大的难度。利用统计分析的方法,结合海洋结构的实际特点,给出了海洋结构钢材综合单价的计算模型和修正方法,从而保证了前期研究中钢材费用估算的可靠性。     

基于实物期权理论的油田开发方案优选模型

由于忽略了不确定条件下决策者的管理柔性，传统的折现现金流方法不适合评价油田开发投资项目。当投资者对拟开发油田具有延迟开发权利时，油田开发项目的投资决策可类比于美式看涨期权。利用美式看涨期权的定价思路，通过将传统净现值评价模型转化为商业模型，并假设原油价格服从几何布朗运动，建立了油田开发项目投资评价实物期权定价模型，将该模型应用于油田开发方案的评价以及其方案优选模型的建立。模型运用结果表明，在低油价下传统折现现金流方法低估了项目的投资价值；可选方案增多可以增加项目的价值；有时，即便是开发方案的净现值大于零，且实施净现值最大的开发方案也不是最优的选择。     

钻井投资和油气价格对财务盈利能力影响实证分析

财务盈利能力是工程项目经济评价的重要内容之一。反映财务盈利能力的指标主要包括：内部收益率、投资回收期、财务净现值和投资利润率。对于油气田开发工程项目而言，影响财务盈利能力指标的因素很多，但钻井投资与油气价格是两个不可忽视的因素。因此，文章在建立钻井投资和油气价格与反映油气田开发工程项目财务盈利能力各指标数学模型的基础上，实证性分析了某油气田钻井投资和原油价格对财务盈利能力各指标的影响，在其他条件一定的情况下，利用回归拟合方法，拟合出了财务盈利能力各指标与钻井投资和原油价格关系的函数，计算了财务盈利能力各指标对钻井投资和原油价格的弹性系数，为油气田开发工程项目投资决策提供了参考依据。     

海外在执行勘探项目风险-价值综合评价方法

中国油公司海外油气业务在取得规模发展的同时,多个勘探项目也累计有大批投资尚未回收,当前低油价形势下更是“雪上加霜”,开展海外勘探项目风险-价值综合评价方法研究对于中国油公司规避勘探投资风险和优化勘探布局具有重要意义。海外在执行勘探项目运行过程中存在一系列风险,其中内部风险包括地质风险和勘探技术风险等,外部风险包括资源国政治、安全和项目合同风险等。根据海外勘探资产特点,以地质资源潜力分析为基础,综合考虑项目运作过程中存在的内部和外部风险,提出适用于海外勘探项目的风险-价值综合评价方法,对公司在执行勘探项目进行综合评价,形成低风险低价值、低风险高价值、高风险低价值和高风险高价值4类组合,并提出针对性策略和建议,指导勘探业务布局的优化。该方法为实现项目内部-外部风险因素控制、资源规模增长和经济价值实现统一提供了强有力的指导,在优化勘探资产组合和业务布局等方面也取得了很好的应用效果。     

大庆油田复合驱油技术适应性评价方法研究

对聚合物驱油项目与三元复合驱油项目投资构成进行了对比,借鉴聚合物驱油项目聚合物用量的概念,对三元复合驱化学剂用量定义了"聚合物当量"概念。针对大庆油田具有三元复合驱潜力的储量,分析了在不同的油藏条 件下复合驱项目对注采井距、聚合物当量和油价等的要求。考虑到项目投资对采收率指标的影响,测评了油价,按照收支平衡原则,将总投资折算为需要的增油量下限值,进而确定出需要提高的采收率下限,建立了复合驱油技术的油藏适应性经济评价模型。该模型可用于评价复合驱项目方案。     

海工建设项目的成本控制

海上油气田开发有其不同于陆上油气田开发的特点,具有高技术、高风险、高投入性。文章针对海工建设项目的特点,从海工建设项目管理的一般流程出发,分析了海工建设项目成本控制的四项重点内容,即设计控制、采办控制、制造施工控制、结算控制。并从专家审议、承包商选择、设备采购方面提出了海工建设项目成本控制的改进建议以及应注意的问题。     

海上注水开发油田单井经济极限含水率分析

经济极限含水率对注水开发油田具有重要的经济意义,目前行业标准笼统选取98%的含水率作为单井经济极限含水率,没有考虑经济因素,显然有失合理性。为合理确定不同经济条件下的单井经济极限含水率,评估单井生产是否具有经济效益,基于油价、油田实际产出、成本、税金等经济参数,运用投入产出平衡理论,首次推导出海上注水开发油田单井经济极限含水率计算模型。以渤海Q油田为例,计算了不同油价、不同采油速度下单井经济极限含水率,并绘制相应图版,评价了油井生产是否具有经济效益。结果表明：成本一定时,油价和采油速度对经济极限含水率影响较大,经济极限含水率随油价的升高而增大,随采油速度的增大而增大。对具有高采油速度的海上注水开发油田而言,高油价（$100/bbl,1 bbl=0.159 m³）下的经济极限含水率高达99.11%,远高于目前行业标准规定的98%的经济极限含水率数值,延长了油井高含水期效益生产的寿命,大幅度提高了单井经济效益,对海上注水开发油田单井生产策略具有重要的指导意义。     

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncertainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engineering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.     

运用目标成本法精细管控油气井项目投资研究与实践

为了控制油气井投资、降低成本,提高勘探开发效益,实现公司高质量发展,以市场经济原理为指导,引入目标成本法和价值分析原理,探索油气井项目投资全过程控制方法,构建了“6+4”运行模式。该投资控制体系涵盖项目决策、设计、招标、施工及竣工全流程,包括目标成本的制定、优化、分解、实施、控制、分析考核6个环节,涉及市场、总承包、预警、激励4个配套保障机制,以及相应信息保障措施,以效益为导向,用经济指标引导约束技术指标,实现全过程各环节精细化管控,为油气项目管理提供了新思路。取得的成效主要包括：为公司投资控制提供依据,应用于公司重点项目投资审查中,投资审减率超10%;推动公司造价大数据建设,其中钻井工程量清单计价模块已在塔里木油田、西南油气田等风险井投资估算管理中全面普及应用;促进了西南长宁页岩气稳产方案优化,为低油价形势下非常规油气资源的有效动用提供了技术保障。     

石油勘探开发项目实物期权特性分析

从金融领域衍生的实物期权理论能更充分地考虑项目进展过程中的灵活性价值和战略价值。石油公司参与经营大型石油和天然气勘探开发项目的典型商业决策时序属期权行为，详细分析了石油勘探开发项目的实物期权特性，提出了实物期权法应用于石油勘探开发项目战略经济评价领域的原因及应用机理，分析了终止期权和停启期权的涵义，并且通过实例讨论实物期权理论在石油勘探开发项目战略经济评价领域的评价效果。在对石油勘探与开发这类高风险、不确定性因素多的项目进行经济评价时，用实物期权法能将项目的各个阶段分别考虑，在每个阶段结束后，投资者都可根据项目进展情况决定是否继续投资，有效地规避风险；而传统的现金流量法一旦对项目投资，中途不可终止，可能对投资产生误导。实物期权法有利于提高石油勘探开发项目的经济性以及决策的准确性。     

胜利油区油气风险勘探成本计算与统计分析

在评价国外油气储量成本计算方法的同时，针对油气勘探投资的长期累积性和探明地质储量在时点分布上的不均衡性，分别引入了物价指数和时间价值因素；对投资和储量的价值进行了相应地调整，对物价水平的变化采用了起始午和当前午2个参照基准，提出了静态储量成本、不变价格储量成本、增量储量成本和动态储量成本等4个概念，并按照单年平均、累积平均和移动平均等不同统计方法建立了相应的数学模型。对胜利油区1986-2002年的勘探和投资数据进行了测算，对储量成本的历史发展趋势和随机分布状态进行了统计分析，分析结果表明，物价和时间价值因素对储量成本计算有显著影响。为了提高成本信息的相关性，使用动态储量成本指标对石油天然气公司的勘探效益进行评价更为恰当。     

海上油气田开发风险及其对策分析

海上油气田开发由于所处地理环境恶劣、地质条件复杂、投资巨大,是一个风险较大的行业。海上油气田开发在地质、开发技术、工程技术、政治及经济等方面较陆上油气田有更大的风险,特别是开发建设投资占比大,因此分析其开发风险因素,提出相应对策,对后续海上油气田开发项目管理有着极为重要的意义。此文结合我国海域已投入开发的油气田案例,探讨海上油气田开发项目的风险因素,并由此提出关注的一些技术问题,以期在开发管理过程中降低风险、提高项目经济效益提供一定帮助。     

国际石油钻井费用分类与投资估算方法

钻井投资指标估算是海外油气项目经济评价的一项基本内容。为提高油气项目经济评价的精确性和准确度,必须保证钻井投资估算指标与项目实际情况具有较高的符合程度。对国际上常用的石油钻井承包方式和钻井费用分类方法进行了分析,结合海外油气项目经济评价工作实际,介绍了几种快速有效的钻井投资估算方法。     

基于油价随机过程的国际石油合同模式经济性分析

以国际石油合作的代表性模式之一矿税制合同为例,以油价服从几何布朗运动（GBM）和均值回复过程（MRP）为基础,通过对影响合同经济性的两个关键因素矿区使用费和所得税的不同情景假设,对合同模式的经济性进行了研究。结果表明,在油价不确定的条件下,相对于矿区使用费而言,所得税对项目价值的影响更加显著;当预期油价波动率较小时,均值回复过程要比几何布朗运动的模拟效果更好一些。该研究结果为国际石油投标、谈判和决策提供了一种新的分析视角和方法。     

Phillips Pumps Cash in China''''s Oil Development

US-based oil giant Phillips said it expects toreinforce its investment in Xijiang oil field, one ofthe largest oil fields in South China Sea, to raise itsproduction. The company, together with partners -including Royal/Dutch Shell and CNOOC, China's