基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

Sirtuins as Important Factors in Pathological States and the Role of Their Molecular Activity Modulators

Sirtuins (SIRTs), enzymes from the family of NAD⁺-dependent histone deacetylases, play an important role in the functioning of the body at the cellular level and participate in many biochemical processes. The multi-directionality of SIRTs encourages scientists to undertake research aimed at understanding the mechanisms of their action and the influence that SIRTs have on the organism. At the same time, new substances are constantly being sought that can modulate the action of SIRTs. Extensive research on the expression of SIRTs in various pathological conditions suggests that regulation of their activity may have positive results in supporting the treatment of certain metabolic, neurodegenerative or cancer diseases or this connected with oxidative stress. Due to such a wide spectrum of activity, SIRTs may also be a prognostic markers of selected pathological conditions and prove helpful in assessing their progression, especially by modulating their activity. The article presents and discusses the activating or inhibiting impact of individual SIRTs modulators. The review also gathered selected currently available information on the expression of SIRTs in individual disease cases as well as the biological role that SIRTs play in the human organism, also in connection with oxidative stress condition, taking into account the progress of knowledge about SIRTs over the years, with particular reference to the latest research results.     

煤炭资源型城市转型模式研究：以徐州贾汪区为例

煤炭资源型城市为我国经济发展提供了重要的资源和能源支持,研究资源型城市转型的经验模式对调整区域经济结构、确保社会稳定和改善生态环境具有重要的实践意义。本文采用文献综述法和实证分析法,研究我国东部煤炭资源枯竭型城市转型所面临的共性难题,并以徐州贾汪区转型探索经历为例,总结城市转型的"徐州贾汪区模式",主要包括放大正向外部效应、长期坚持矿地融合、大力建设矿区社会生态系统恢复力三条路径。研究结果表明,煤炭城市转型发展的共性问题相互联系、相互影响,是一个系统性难题,必须引入系统性思维。我国东部矿区普遍人口密集,农业发达、沉陷积水是最主要的共性特征,煤炭开采产生的社会问题、经济问题、生态问题、环境问题基本相同,转型发展模式值得互鉴。     

胶莱盆地南部大盛群、王氏群的划分与对比

胶莱盆地在胶东半岛地质构造及造山带研究中占有重要地位,其巨厚的白垩系陆相沉积是石油系统多年的研究目标。胶莱盆地南部白垩纪的岩石地层序列较其北部更为复杂,其认识几经反复,其中尤以大盛群与王氏群和莱阳群的部分单位的关系为甚。本次工作通过详细对比其沉积层序、相互关系、古生物组合、岩石学特征及同位素年龄等因素,认为大盛群与王氏群属同一沉积层序,沉积基底相同、沉积环境相似、古生物群落时代一致,二者具有同时代、同沉积相、同岩石组合的一致性,应是一套地层,建议今后使用统一地层名称。     

Maskless Preparation of Spatially-Resolved Plasmonic Nanoparticles on Polydimethylsiloxane via In Situ Fluoride-Assisted Synthesis

Here, a fluoride-assisted route for the controlled in-situ synthesis of metal nanoparticles (NPs) (i.e., AgNPs, AuNPs) on polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) is reported. The size and coverage of the NPs on the PDMS surface are modulated with time and over space during the synthetic process, leveraging the improved yield (10×) and faster kinetics (100×) of NP formation in the presence of F⁻ ions, compared to fluoride-free approaches. This enables the maskless preparation of both linear and step gradients and patterns of NPs in 1D and 2D on the PDMS surface. As an application in flexible plasmonics/photonics, continuous and step-wise spatial modulations of the plasmonic features of PDMS slabs with 1D and 2D AgNP gradients on the surface are demonstrated. An excellent spatially resolved tuning of key optical parameters, namely, optical density from zero to 5 and extinction ratio up to 100 dB, is achieved with AgNP gradients prepared in AgF solution for 12 minutes; the performance are comparable to those of commercial dielectric/interference filters. When used as a rejection filter in optical fluorescence microscopy, the AgNP-PDMS slabs are able to reject the excitation laser at 405 nm and retain the green fluorescence of microbeads (100 µm) used as test cases.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

In Silico Analysis and Experimental Validation of Active Compounds from Cichorium intybus L. Ameliorating Liver Injury

This study aimed at investigating the possible mechanisms of hepatic protective activity of Cichorium intybus L. (chicory) in acute liver injury. Pathological observation, reactive oxygen species (ROS) detection and measurements of biochemical indexes on mouse models proved hepatic protective effect of Cichorium intybus L. Identification of active compounds in Cichorium intybus L. was executed through several methods including ultra performance liquid chromatography/time of flight mass spectrometry (UPLC-TOF-MS). Similarity ensemble approach (SEA) docking, molecular modeling, molecular docking, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulation were applied in this study to explore possible mechanisms of the hepato-protective potential of Cichorium intybus L. We then analyzed the chemical composition of Cichorium intybus L., and found their key targets. Furthermore, in vitro cytological examination and western blot were used for validating the efficacy of the selected compounds. In silico analysis and western blot together demonstrated that selected compound 10 in Cichorium intybus L. targeted Akt-1 in hepatocytes. Besides, compound 13 targeted both caspase-1 and Akt-1. These small compounds may ameliorate liver injury by acting on their targets, which are related to apoptosis or autophagy. The conclusions above may shed light on the complex molecular mechanisms of Cichorium intybus L. acting on hepatocytes and ameliorating liver injury.     

Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.