基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

煤炭资源型城市转型模式研究：以徐州贾汪区为例

煤炭资源型城市为我国经济发展提供了重要的资源和能源支持,研究资源型城市转型的经验模式对调整区域经济结构、确保社会稳定和改善生态环境具有重要的实践意义。本文采用文献综述法和实证分析法,研究我国东部煤炭资源枯竭型城市转型所面临的共性难题,并以徐州贾汪区转型探索经历为例,总结城市转型的"徐州贾汪区模式",主要包括放大正向外部效应、长期坚持矿地融合、大力建设矿区社会生态系统恢复力三条路径。研究结果表明,煤炭城市转型发展的共性问题相互联系、相互影响,是一个系统性难题,必须引入系统性思维。我国东部矿区普遍人口密集,农业发达、沉陷积水是最主要的共性特征,煤炭开采产生的社会问题、经济问题、生态问题、环境问题基本相同,转型发展模式值得互鉴。     

Vertical cyclic loading response of geosynthetic-encased stone column in soft clay

Dynamic responses of the geosynthetic-encased stone column (GESC) supported embankment under traffic loads have become a hot topic. This study investigates the responses of GESC improved ground under vertical cyclic loading. A series of laboratory tests in a designed model test tank have been carried out with different loading parameters (varied loading amplitudes and frequencies), different column dimensions (varied encasement lengths and column diameters). In the tests, the soil-column stress distribution, accumulated settlement of loading plate, excess pore water pressure in the surrounding soil and lateral bulging of the stone column are monitored. Experimental results indicate that the vertical stress on the stone column increases with the increment of encasement length, and decreases with the increment of column diameter, loading amplitude and loading frequency. The increasing stress on the surrounding soil leads to a greater accumulated settlement of the loading plate and excess pore water pressure, while the increasing stress on the column leads to larger lateral bulging of the column. Excess pore water pressure dissipates effectively through vertical and horizontal drainage channels provided by the stone column and the sand bed. The geosynthetic encasement prevents the clay from obstructing the drainage channel by filtration and guarantees the drainage effect.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

Control of the particle microstructure during the synthesis of bulk-polymerized transparent methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene resin

A series of methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (MABS) resins was prepared using bulk polymerization. The polarity of the continuous phase and the compatibility of two phases were changed by adjusting the methyl methacrylate (MMA) content, choosing values that were close to styrene-butadiene rubber solubility value. The possibility of controlling the microstructure of the MABS resin by changing the polarity of the components and the compatibility of two phases was assessed. The dynamic mechanical analysis shows that the compatibility of two phases varies with the MMA content. The morphological analysis shows that increasing MMA contents results in a gradual decrease in the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton of rubber particles, and that all the particles become solid rubber when the MMA content reaches 75%. The sub-inclusion structure reappears but does not have a network skeleton when the MMA content is 90%. The impact strength and morphological analysis indicate that the solid rubber particles and the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton provide excellent toughness, while the sub-inclusion structure without a network skeleton does not. In contrast, the transmittance of the ABS resin first increased and then decreased with increasing MMA content.     

探讨加强质量监督管理提高电网安全水平

电网的安全水平主要取决于其使用产品的质量是否过关。如果产品的质量较好，则能建造出优质的电网，电网的安全水平便会随之提高。因此，应加强对产品质量的监督管理，从而提高电网的安全水平。我们可建立质量监督管理系统，及时抽检出质量不过关的产品，从而消除电网运行过程中潜在的安全隐患。     

气管上段腺样囊性癌的临床病理

目的　探讨气管上段腺样囊性癌的临床病理特征及诊断和鉴别诊断要点。方法　收集2000年1月至2014年2月在北京协和医院确诊的4例气管上段腺样囊性癌病例，通过光镜、免疫组织化学及组织化学染色分析其临床病理特征、免疫组织化学特点、诊断及鉴别诊断要点。结果　4例气管上段腺样囊性癌患者中，男1例，女3例，平均年龄47岁(38~57岁）；既往均无腺样囊性癌病史，1例患者既往有结节性甲状腺肿手术史。镜下检查4例均为筛状/管状型腺样囊性癌，3例累及甲状腺组织，3例累及神经组织，未见淋巴结受累。免疫组织化学染色示4例P16、CD117、BCL2、P63、SMA均阳性，Ki67指数平均8%，TTF1和P53均阴性；4例中基底膜样物胶原Ⅳ阳性；组织化学染色示AB/PAS阳性。术后均接受总剂量为48~56 Gy的放疗，随访6~120个月，平均72.5个月，1例术后96个月复发，3例随访期间无复发及转移。结论　气管上段腺样囊性癌是罕见的原发于气管的低度恶性肿瘤，肿瘤生长缓慢，就诊时多数已侵及甲状腺组织，需要与原发于甲状腺的恶性肿瘤相鉴别，特别是在甲状腺穿刺及术中冰冻检查时。结合电子喉气管镜下表现、典型的形态学及免疫组织化学和组织化学染色有助于准确诊断。手术难以切除干净，术后放疗对延缓疾病复发有一定帮助。     

杭州湾南岸滩涂沉积物中HCHs与DDTs污染特征分析

摘 要：目的 了解六六六（hexachlorocyclohexanes,HCHs）与滴滴涕(dichloro diphenyl trichloroethanes,DDTs)在杭州湾南岸滩涂沉积物中的污染现状。方法 于2018年4月，采集杭州湾南岸地区4个采样点不同深度（0~80 cm）滩涂沉积物，利用气相色谱-串联质谱法（gas chromatography tandem mass spectrometry, GC-MS/MS）测定了该区域中HCHs与DDTs的含量，对其分布规律进行分析，使用共识沉积物质量基准法对其生态学风险进行了评估。结果 所有样品中均检出，HCHs与DDTs含量分别为4.20~6.24 μg/kg与3.37~4.73 μg/kg，主要以β-HCH、δ-HCH以及DDE为主，其污染主要来源于历史性工业品，整体污染处于较低水平；20.3%的沉积物样品中DDEs含量以及28.1%的样品DDTs总量介于阈值效应浓度(threshold concentration, TECs) 和可能效应浓度(probable effect concentration, PECs)之间。结论 杭州湾南岸沉积物中HCHs与DDTs的污染处于较低水平，具有较小的生态学风险。