基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

Birth traits of Holstein calves compared with Holstein,Jersey, Montbéliarde,Normande, and Viking Red-sired crossbred calves

Holstein (HO) calves, 3-breed crossbred calves of Montbéliarde, Viking Red, and HO (MVH), and 3-breed crossbred calves of Normande, Jersey, and Viking Red (NJV) were compared for gestation length (GL), calf weight at birth (CW), calving difficulty (CD), and stillbirth (SB) in 2 research herds at the University of Minnesota. Calves were born from January 2009 to December 2019. For the St. Paul and Morris herds, HO calves (n = 1,121) were compared with MVH calves (n = 1,393) from primiparous and multiparous cows. For the single herd analysis at Morris, HO calves (n = 476), MVH calves (n = 922), and NJV calves (n = 405) were compared from primiparous and multiparous cows. Primiparous and multiparous births were analyzed separately because multiparous cows had multiple births, and CD and SB are likely different traits for primiparous and multiparous cows. Statistical analysis of GL, CW, CD, and SB included fixed effects of sex of calf, herd, breed group of calf, and year-season of calving. For the St. Paul and Morris herds, HO calves from primiparous (278 d) and multiparous (279 d) HO cows had shorter GL compared with MVH calves from primiparous (280 d) and multiparous (282 d) crossbred cows. The HO calves (39.4 and 43.2 kg, respectively) from primiparous and multiparous HO cows had lower CW compared with MVH calves (40.3 and 44.3 kg, respectively) from primiparous and multiparous crossbred cows. Calving difficulty and SB were not different for HO and MVH calves from primiparous and multiparous cows. For the single herd analysis at Morris, HO calves (278 and 279 d, respectively) from primiparous and multiparous HO cows had shorter GL compared with MVH calves (281 and 282 d, respectively) and NJV calves (282 and 282 d, respectively) from primiparous and multiparous crossbred cows. The CW of HO calves (38.6 and 42.0 kg, respectively) from primiparous and multiparous HO cows was lower compared with MVH calves (39.7 and 42.9 kg, respectively), but higher compared with NJV calves (35.1 and 38.0 kg, respectively) from primiparous and multiparous crossbred cows. Calving difficulty and SB did not differ for HO, MVH, and NJV calves from primiparous and multiparous cows. The longer GL for crossbred calves and higher CW for MVH calves did not increase CD and SB for primiparous and multiparous cows. Dairy producers may implement 3-breed rotational crossbreeding systems that include the HO, Jersey, Normande, Montbéliarde, and Viking Red breeds, and some breeds may increase GL and CW without an increase in CD and SB.     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring

Several modifications and enhancements to control charts in increasing the performance of small and moderate process shifts have been introduced in the quality control charting techniques. In this paper, a new hybrid control chart for monitoring process location is proposed by combining two homogeneously weighted moving average (HWMA) control charts. The hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) statistic is derived using two smoothing constants λ₁ and λ₂ . The average run length (ARL) and the standard deviation of the run length (SDRL) values of the HHWMA control chart are obtained and compared with some existing control charts for monitoring small and moderate shifts in the process location. The results of study show that the HHWMA control chart outperforms the existing control charts in many situations. The application of the HHWMA chart is demonstrated using a simulated data.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

Control of the particle microstructure during the synthesis of bulk-polymerized transparent methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene resin

A series of methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (MABS) resins was prepared using bulk polymerization. The polarity of the continuous phase and the compatibility of two phases were changed by adjusting the methyl methacrylate (MMA) content, choosing values that were close to styrene-butadiene rubber solubility value. The possibility of controlling the microstructure of the MABS resin by changing the polarity of the components and the compatibility of two phases was assessed. The dynamic mechanical analysis shows that the compatibility of two phases varies with the MMA content. The morphological analysis shows that increasing MMA contents results in a gradual decrease in the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton of rubber particles, and that all the particles become solid rubber when the MMA content reaches 75%. The sub-inclusion structure reappears but does not have a network skeleton when the MMA content is 90%. The impact strength and morphological analysis indicate that the solid rubber particles and the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton provide excellent toughness, while the sub-inclusion structure without a network skeleton does not. In contrast, the transmittance of the ABS resin first increased and then decreased with increasing MMA content.     

冷轧平整机机前甩尾轧制工艺的开发与应用

本文介绍了柳钢冷轧板带厂1550 mm单机架平整机机前甩尾轧制的工艺。改进前轧制每卷钢卷生产效率低,钢卷成材率低,改进后生产效率、成材率明显提高,部分规格的钢卷能实现带尾剪切长度为零。     

Effect of hyperbranched poly(citric polyethylene glycol) with various polyethylene glycol chain lengths on starch plasticization and retrogradation

A series of hyperbranched poly(citric polyethylene glycol) (PCPEG) materials with varied polyethylene glycol (PEG) chain lengths as plasticizers were mixed with maize starch (MS) via cooking and film‐forming. The structure, pasting property, plasticization, aging property, moisture absorption and compatibility of plasticized starches were studied by means of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, X‐ray diffraction, rapid viscosity analysis, tension testing, moisture absorption measurements and scanning electron microscopy. Compared with PEG and citric acid, PCPEG was more effective in promoting starch chain movement and inhibiting the retrogradation of starch film. Also, PCPEG/MS had smaller moisture content. The longer the plasticizer chain, the better were the aging resistance and moisture resistance of starch. But with an increase of PEG chain length, mechanical properties of PCPEG/MS deteriorated and the compatibility between PCPEG and MS decreased. The hyperbranched derivative of PEG with longer chain exhibited improved plasticization and compatibility with starch. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry     

探讨加强质量监督管理提高电网安全水平

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