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Monthly streamflow forecasting is vital for managing water resources. Recently, numerous studies have explored and evidenced the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) models in hydrological forecasting. In this study, the feasibility of the convolutional neural network (CNN), a deep learning method, is explored for monthly streamflow forecasting. CNN can automatically extract critical features from numerous inputs with its convolution–pooling mechanism, which is a distinct advantage compared with other AI models. Hydrological and large-scale atmospheric circulation variables, including rainfall, streamflow, and atmospheric circulation factors are used to establish models and forecast streamflow for Huanren Reservoir and Xiangjiaba Hydropower Station, China. The artificial neural network (ANN) and extreme learning machine (ELM) with inputs identified based on cross-correlation and mutual information analyses are established for comparative analyses. The performances of these models are assessed with several statistical metrics and graphical evaluation methods. The results show that CNN outperforms ANN and ELM in all statistical measures. Moreover, CNN shows better stability in forecasting accuracy.
相似文献Heuristic algorithms (HAs) are widely used in multi-objective reservoir optimal operation (MOROO) due to the rapidity of the calculation and simplicity of their design. The literature usually focuses on one or two categories of HAs and simply reviews the state of the art. To provide an overall understanding and a specific comparison of HAs in MOROO, differential evolution (DE), particle swarm optimisation (PSO), and artificial physics optimisation (APO), which serve as typical examples of the three categories of HAs, are compared in terms of the development and applications using a designed experiment. Besides, the general model with constraints and fitness function, and the solution process using a hybrid feasible domain restoration method and penalty function method are also presented. Taking a designed experiment with multiple scenarios, the mean average of the optimal objective function values, the standard deviation of optimal objective function values, the mean average of the computational time, and population diversity are used for comparisons. Results of the comparisons show that (a) the problem of optimal multipurpose reservoir long-term operation is a mathematic programming problem with narrow feasible region and monotonic objective function; (b) it is easy to obtain the same optimal objective function value, but different optimal solutions using HAs; and (c) comparisons do not result in a clear winner, but DE can be more appropriate for MOROO.
相似文献Surrogate model-assisted multi-objective genetic algorithms (MOGA) show great potential in solving engineering design problems since they can save computational cost by reducing the calls of expensive simulations. In this paper, a two-stage adaptive multi-fidelity surrogate (MFS) model-assisted MOGA (AMFS-MOGA) is developed to further relieve their computational burden. In the warm-up stage, a preliminary Pareto frontier is obtained relying only on the data from the low-fidelity (LF) model. In the second stage, an initial MFS model is constructed based on the data from both LF and high-fidelity (HF) models at the samples, which are selected from the preliminary Pareto set according to the crowding distance in the objective space. Then the fitness values of individuals are evaluated using the MFS model, which is adaptively updated according to two developed strategies, an individual-based updating strategy and a generation-based updating strategy. The former considers the prediction uncertainty from the MFS model, while the latter takes the discrete degree of the population into consideration. The effectiveness and merits of the proposed AMFS-MOGA approach are illustrated using three benchmark tests and the design optimization of a stiffened cylindrical shell. The comparisons between the proposed AMFS-MOGA approach and some existing approaches considering the quality of the obtained Pareto frontiers and computational efficiency are made. The results show that the proposed AMFS-MOGA method can obtain Pareto frontiers comparable to that obtained by the MOGA with HF model, while significantly reducing the number of evaluations of the expensive HF model.
相似文献