Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands

An increasing number of avian flu cases in humans, arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, in several regions of the world have prompted the urgency to develop pandemic preparedness plans worldwide. Leading recommendations in these plans include basic public health control measures for minimizing transmission in hospitals and communities, the use of antiviral drugs and vaccination. This paper presents a mathematical model for the evaluation of the pandemic flu preparedness plans of the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands. The model is used to assess single and combined interventions. Using data from the US, we show that hospital and community transmission control measures alone can be highly effective in reducing the impact of a potential flu pandemic. We further show that while the use of antivirals alone could lead to very significant reductions in the burden of a pandemic, the combination of transmission control measures, antivirals and vaccine gives the most 'optimal' result. However, implementing such an optimal strategy at the onset of a pandemic may not be realistic. Thus, it is important to consider other plausible alternatives. An optimal preparedness plan is largely dependent on the availability of resources; hence, it is country-specific. We show that countries with limited antiviral stockpiles should emphasize their use therapeutically (rather than prophylactically). However, countries with large antiviral stockpiles can achieve greater reductions in disease burden by implementing them both prophylactically and therapeutically. This study promotes alternative strategies that may be feasible and attainable for the US, UK and the Netherlands. It emphasizes the role of hospital and community transmission control measures in addition to the timely administration of antiviral treatment in reducing the burden of a flu pandemic. The latter is consistent with the preparedness plans of the UK and the Netherlands. Our results indicate that for low efficacy and coverage levels of antivirals and vaccine, the use of a vaccine leads to the greatest reduction in morbidity and mortality compared with the singular use of antivirals. However, as these efficacy and coverage levels are increased, the use of antivirals is more effective.     

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钢液二次精炼用CaO基熔剂的脱磷能力

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ZJ510L-B汽车用高强度热轧板的试制

珠钢150t电弧炉-LF(VD)-CSP(紧凑式带材生产)流程试生产的5～8mm ZJ510L-B(0．16C--1．22Mn)汽车用高强度热轧板的铁素体晶粒尺寸为6．0～9．2μm，带状组织为1．5～2．5级，强度极限σb562～610MPa，延伸率δ5 32．0％～38．6％。文中还分析和提出了带状组织的形成原因和改进措施。     

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针对冶金回转窑窑体在高温下产生的失效进行数值分析，并在此基础上对冶金窑窑体的设计方法进行修正。     

基于高抗热震性能的陶瓷刀具材料的微观结构设计

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介绍了中原边际小断块油田开发建设以来几种油气集输工艺配套技术的成功应用，并从节能降耗、工艺合理匹配、提高系统效率等方面阐述了其他适于边际小断块油田油气集输工艺的配套技术。     

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在每一周期的开始时的速度值V1预设定到传动装置上进行速度预控制，同时，反馈回来的实际值Sj与S1进行比较计算，得出当时偏差值△S，此偏差值△S乘以比例系数Ksp，得到Vk叠加在Vt上，得出传动装置应具有的速度控制信号V，然后V经速度／电压变换和D／A转换向传动系统的速度控制发出控制信号Uα控制执行机构的定位。调节Ksp的值使系统无超调无振荡。     

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