Modeling unaccounted-for gas among residential natural gas consumers using a comprehensive fuzzy cognitive map

Residential natural gas consumption depends on several factors. Available tools and methods to identify, categorize, and validate effective factors have some limitations, making consumption modeling more complex. Once a comprehensive model of effective consumption factors is developed for residential gas consumers, it can predict consumption. In addition, such a model could be used to verify the accuracy of measuring devices in order to reduce unaccounted for gas (UFG). The key factors affecting residential gas consumption were identified based on previous studies and their mutual effects were analyzed using a fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) method. The most significant factors and their effects on natural gas consumption in the residential sector were determined. In this study, for the first time, the expected consumption for each consumer was estimated using a consumption index. Generally, if the estimated consumption is significantly different from the amount recorded by the meter, it could suggest a potential source of UFG. The proposed method was applied to the data collected from the residential gas consumers of a small region in Iran (Dasht-e Arjan region, Fars province), and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

A robust method for axis identification

The present paper proposes a new method for axis identification in discrete axially symmetrical geometric models. This method is based on-a-never-used-before property of the axially symmetrical surfaces for which the symmetry line of any section curve of the surface (or of a portion of it in the case of an incomplete axially symmetrical surface) always intersects the axis of symmetry of the surface. Thus the working principle of the method makes it very robust to local defectiveness, measurement noise and outliers.In order to compare it with the most cited methods presented in literature, several types of tests have been designed and performed. The robustness of those methods, on the one hand, has been evaluated by defining the Statistical Confidence Boundary at 1σ confidence level. The trueness of the method, on the other hand, has been evaluated on geometric models obtained by measuring real objects. The high robustness, which characterizes the proposed method, makes it particularly suitable for product geometric inspection where high accuracy is required.     

Turning tradition into an instrument of research: The editorship of William Nicholson (1753–1815)

Mainly known for its links to the periodical market and radical politics, this article recontextualizes the editorship of William Nicholson (1753–1815) in terms of its roots in the metropolitan natural philosophical circles of the second half of the 18th century as well as its impact on experimenters and men of science after 1797. The article argues that Nicholson's editorship of the Journal of Natural Philosophy, Chemistry, and the Arts was a means to expand his philosophical significance among natural philosophers at home and abroad—and was, in fact, a form of epistemological subversion that challenged the “Banksian Learned Empire.”     

Invader amphipods Gmelinoides fasciatus (Stebbing, 1899) inhabiting distant waterbodies demonstrate differences in tolerance and energy metabolism under elevated temperatures

Gmelinoides fasciatus is a successful invasive amphipod (Amphipoda, Crustacea) that dispersed from Lake Baikal to various waterbodies. Here we studied whether Baikal conditions are optimal for G. fasciatus in terms of thermotolerance and investigated lethal temperatures, 70 kDa heat shock protein level, energy metabolism, and antioxidant defense of animals from three geographically distant waterbodies under changing temperatures. We used acute heat exposure to 28 °C to assess the median lethal times and gradual temperature increase from 6 °C to determine the lethal temperatures. Mortality under heat shock was explainable by the baseline content of Hsp70 that correlated with thermal history. But it was not the case under gradual temperature increase where Hsp70 levels became similar and the mortality pattern changed. The most thermotolerant amphipods from the Gulf of Finland demonstrated a higher amount of free glucose during the temperature increase that may be related to the higher salinity of this waterbody and less energy required for ion regulation. Even though concentrations of major physiological ions in Lake Baikal are lower than in Lake Ladoga, G. fasciatus from Ladoga was slightly more sensitive to the gradual temperature increase. This difference could be explained by the influence of high levels of humic and other potentially toxic substances in Lake Ladoga indicated by increased activities of catalase and glutathione S-transferase. Importantly, all G. fasciatus populations accumulated relatively low levels of lactate during the temperature increase, which may reflect the ability of this invasive species to effectively maintain aerobic metabolism under various conditions.     

论解放战争时期中间路线的兴衰及成因

抗日战争胜利初期,国共内战迫在眉睫。为挽救危局,强国富民,中间人士提出所谓中间路线,企图走“第三条道路”实现和平建国。在反动政府的强力弹压和中共的教育帮助下,中间路线退出历史舞台。民主党派的转型历程充分昭示了中国人民在中共领导下走上新民主主义道路的必然性。     

Biophysical Model of Larval Yellow Perch Advection and Settlement in Lake Michigan

Potential for large-scale physical transport processes to affect recruitment of Lake Michigan yellow perch (Perca flavescens) was studied by examining the variation in larval distribution, growth rate, and settlement during June–August 1998–2003 using a 3D particle transport model linked with an individual-based bioenergetics growth model. In all years, virtual larvae were released nearshore in southwestern Lake Michigan, a known and important spawning region for yellow perch. For any given year, the same circulation pattern and water temperature either promoted or reduced yellow perch settlement depending on the consumption rates and settlement size chosen in the growth model. Increased consumption increased the number of settled larvae and expanded the total area where larvae settled, whereas increased settlement size reduced the number of settled larvae and reduced the overall settlement area. Interannual variability in circulation patterns and water temperature also resulted in contrasting larval settlement rates, settlement locations, and size of settlement areas between years. Model predictions were most consistent with field observations of age-0 yellow perch from Illinois and Michigan waters when settlement was assumed to occur at 50 mm. Moreover, our model suggests that larvae originating from southwestern Lake Michigan can recruit anywhere within the southern basin and even in the northern basin. Future model improvement will require information on the relative contribution of various sectors to the larval pool, their distribution with reference to the hydrodynamic landscape, the feeding and growth of yellow perch during their pelagic phase, and the size at transition to demersal stage.     

Temporal dynamics and drivers of lake ecosystem metabolism using high resolution observations in a shallow,tropical, eutrophic lake (Laguna Lake,Philippines)

The physical, chemical, and biological dynamics under changing atmospheric conditions of Laguna Lake, Philippines were analyzed from intensive observations. Diel measurements were conducted for 48 continuous hours for both dry and wet tropical seasons in addition to fine resolution long-term monitoring. Results revealed significant vertical and diel variations of lake variables in spite of a shallow water depth (2.5 m) caused by the intense surface heating from solar irradiance (~800 W m^?2) and accentuated by the lake's high turbidity (16–32 ftu). Late afternoon land-lake breeze (~5–7 m s^?1) regularly breaks daytime thermal stratification, and convective cooling at night maintains isothermal condition until dawn of the next day. The stratified condition demonstrated a wind-driven, density-induced 2-layer current pattern with a windward moving epilimnion (~4 folds faster) and a compensating hypolimnetic flow in the general lake circulation direction. Laguna Lake was observed to have a dominating diel cycle but also undergoes significant seasonal limnological variations brought primarily by climate, hydrology, and its interaction with the adjacent sea. Significantly correlated variations of pH, chlorophyll-a and DO in the dry season were indicative of the higher biological activity associated with the intrusion of polluted waters from Metro Manila. The non-occurrence of thermal over-turn was observed to be regularly followed by bottom hypoxic conditions (2–4 mg L^?1), indicative of the eutrophic condition of the lake and the importance of diel wind-induced mixing in the bottom supply of DO. Laguna Lake was found to be predominantly net heterotrophic (GPP:R < 1, NEP < 0).     

Evidence of successful river spawning by lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in the Lower Niagara River,Lake Ontario

Restoration of a wild-produced lake trout Salvelinus namaycush population in Lake Ontario has not been successful despite the adult population often meeting or exceeding restoration targets. Lack of high-quality spawning habitat in Lake Ontario is suggested as one impediment to recruitment of wild lake trout, although the quantity and location of spawning habitat is poorly understood. If high-quality spawning habitat is limited in Lake Ontario, lake trout may be using uncommon spawning locations such as rivers. Anecdotal angler accounts point to the Niagara River as a lake trout spawning location. To better understand the potential of the Niagara River as a spawning location, egg and juvenile fish collections were conducted 12–14 river kilometers from the mouth of the Niagara River from 2010 to 2012; and mature female lake trout with surgically implanted acoustic tags were monitored from 2015 to 2019. Genetic analyses confirmed 60% of collected eggs and 93% of collected post-hatch juvenile fish in the Niagara River were lake trout. Tagged female lake trout returned to the Niagara River over consecutive years during the spawning season. The short duration of lake trout presence in the river (mean = 56 days/year) suggests female lake trout use the Niagara River primarily for spawning. Diversity in spawning locations may provide lake trout population’s resilience against environmental variability through a portfolio effect. Improved identification of riverine spawning locations, including their overall contribution to wild recruitment, may be a useful tool for managers to restore a wild-produced population of lake trout in Lake Ontario.