Determination of temporal information granules to improve forecasting in fuzzy time series

Partitioning the universe of discourse and determining intervals containing useful temporal information and coming with better interpretability are critical for forecasting in fuzzy time series. In the existing literature, researchers seldom consider the effect of time variable when they partition the universe of discourse. As a result, and there is a lack of interpretability of the resulting temporal intervals. In this paper, we take the temporal information into account to partition the universe of discourse into intervals with unequal length. As a result, the performance improves forecasting quality. First, time variable is involved in partitioning the universe through Gath–Geva clustering-based time series segmentation and obtain the prototypes of data, then determine suitable intervals according to the prototypes by means of information granules. An effective method of partitioning and determining intervals is proposed. We show that these intervals carry well-defined semantics. To verify the effectiveness of the approach, we apply the proposed method to forecast enrollment of students of Alabama University and the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index. The experimental results show that the partitioning with temporal information can greatly improve accuracy of forecasting. Furthermore, the proposed method is not sensitive to its parameters.     

Incrementally building frequent closed itemset lattice

A concept lattice is an ordered structure between concepts. It is particularly effective in mining association rules. However, a concept lattice is not efficient for large databases because the lattice size increases with the number of transactions. Finding an efficient strategy for dynamically updating the lattice is an important issue for real-world applications, where new transactions are constantly inserted into databases. To build an efficient storage structure for mining association rules, this study proposes a method for building the initial frequent closed itemset lattice from the original database. The lattice is updated when new transactions are inserted. The number of database rescans over the entire database is reduced in the maintenance process. The proposed algorithm is compared with building a lattice in batch mode to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

二乙烯基苯改性煤沥青的流变行为

研究了二乙烯基苯(DVB)改性煤沥青的流变行为.采用SEM和EDAX对改性前后沥青的形貌和组成进行分析,采用旋转黏度计测试改性沥青的流变性能.研究表明:改性沥青中出现分布均匀的微纤;随着改性沥青中甲苯可溶物含量的减少,其黏性流动活化能变大;改性沥青的剪切速率越高,改性沥青的表现黏度越小.     

葡甘聚糖改性大豆蛋白作为药物乳化剂的研究

用天然大豆蛋白和葡甘聚糖,利用羟氨反应使蛋白质分子的侧链氨基与多糖分子的末端不饱和羰基反应生成稳定的共价键,进而形成以多羟基葡甘聚糖为亲水基,大豆蛋白为疏水基的新型两亲分子。结果表明,葡甘聚糖改性大豆蛋白是良好的药用乳化剂,制成的O/W乳状液稳定性明显优于Tween-60制成的乳状液。     

Stability of Y-TZP during hydrothermal treatment: neutron experiments and stability considerations

The degradation of yttria-stabilised zirconia in humid atmospheres at temperatures around 250 °C is influenced by a number of microstructural parameters. The corrosive attack starts from the surface and is associated with the tetragonal to monoclinic transformation. In order to investigate structural changes chemically homogeneous single phase t-powders had been hydrothermally treated in a D₂O-atmosphere and subsequently investigated by neutron diffraction. Slight structural changes were observed after water treatment: a general contraction of both a and c parameters, hence, the “free” structural z(oxygen) parameter as well as the c/a-ratio are closer to the values of cubic zirconia. In this paper the structural changes due to the penetration of water radicals during hydrolysis are discussed. They give rise to stresses which then have an impact on the energy balance between the tetragonal and the monoclinic phase (martensitic transformations). Since the powder state can be assumed to be mostly free from macro-straining, the changes of the lattice constants were used to deduct a shape change tensor. Hence assuming linear elastic behaviour (isotropic elastic modulus of 200 GPa for both a surface grain and its environment) maximum stresses of 328 MPa for the a-axis and 488 MPa for the c-axis were found. Thus, water radicals basically lead to further tensile stresses in the surface which increase the energy difference between the t and m phase, i.e. a further destabilisation.     

Effect of surfactant microstructures on photocatalytic degradation of phenol and chlorophenols

The effect of hexadecyltrimethylammonium bromide (HTAB) on the photocatalytic degradation of phenol (Phe), 2,5-dichlorophenol (2,5-DCP) and 2,4,5-trichlorophenol (2,4,5-TCP) in the presence of aqueous TiO₂ suspensions at pH ca. 5 was investigated using a laboratory photoreactor equipped with a medium-pressure mercury lamp. Inhibition of substrate decomposition was observed for phenol, both below and above the surfactant critical micellar concentration, whereas a more complex behaviour was exhibited by chlorophenols. It was found that adsorption of these compounds onto the surfactant-modified semiconductor particles facilitates their faster decomposition, but the competitive partition of substrates between adsorbed surfactant structures and micellar aggregates tends to limit the beneficial kinetic effects at higher amphiphile concentrations. The crucial influence of surfactant adsorption was clearly evidenced in some runs performed at pH 3. Relevant inhibition of chloride release from chlorophenols, observed in the presence of HTAB, indicates a higher persistence of reaction intermediates in the reaction media, suggesting the need for a careful investigation of surfactant effects on all the degradation steps of the process.     

高效节能热泵错流多效蒸发复杂系统

为了大幅降低错流多效蒸发过程的能耗,首次将蒸汽喷射式热泵技术、冷凝水闪蒸和溶液闪蒸等3种节能措施同时运用到错流多效蒸发系统中,并建立了用矩阵方程描述的该系统的数学模型。模型具有很强的通用性,可实现热泵在任意效抽汽的功能,可简化为只有其中若干种节能措施组合或无上述节能措施的错流、并流、逆流多效蒸发系统的模型。在满足约束条件的前提下,模型存在最佳的热泵喷射系数和抽汽位置,同时采用上述3种节能措施且在最佳条件下模型是高效节能的。浓缩氢氧化钠溶液的热泵错流五效蒸发系统的模拟结果表明,当热泵的喷射系数为0.15、抽汽位置在第2效,采用冷凝水闪蒸和溶液闪蒸时系统节省的生蒸汽消耗量高达32.51%。     

灰色—支持向量机的空调负荷预测

对空调负荷进行准确预测不仅对空调优化控制的意义重大,而且也是实现空调经济运行与节能的关键所在。为了提高建筑空调负荷的预测精度,在分析灰色模型和支持向量机建模特点基础上提出了一种空调负荷组合预测算法。该方法综合了灰色建模计算过程简单以及支持向量机自学习和泛化能力强的优点,能够更加有效地利用样本数据的有效信息,提高模型预测精度。首先,通过灰色建模过程弱化了样本数据的随机因素。然后,对灰色模型输出进行归一化处理及数据重构,以作为支持向量机的输入。最后,通过支持向量机模型的预测得到最终预测结果。将本文所提出的方法应用于福州一栋办公建筑的逐时空调负荷预测中,并与灰色模型及支持向量机模型作比较,证明了组合模型的预测值与实际运行值拟合度最高,平均绝对误差比灰色模型和支持向量机模型分别降低了47.84%和17.39%。该组合预测模型具有较高的预测精度和更好的泛化能力,具有较强的可行性和实用性。     

双渠道供应链中服务对定价和需求的影响研究

研究了集中式决策和基于Stackelberg博弈这两种情况下的双渠道供应链的定价、服务及需求的关系。制造商和零售商提供的服务对价格、需求会产生影响,渠道商改善服务有利于本渠道价格的提高,同时会影响到另一渠道的定价,影响程度与双渠道决策模式相关。与服务对定价的影响不同,渠道商提供的服务对本渠道需求产生的影响是双向的,当服务水平在一定的范围内,改善服务可以增加本渠道市场需求,降低另一渠道需求;当服务水平过高,继续改善服务不仅不能增加需求反而减少需求,同时对另一渠道的需求产生影响,这种影响与消费者市场类型存在密切关系。当消费者市场属于价格敏感型时,服务水平存在一个帕累托区间,任一渠道商改善服务都会促进双渠道需求的增加。     

自适应布谷鸟搜索算法

为了使布谷鸟搜索算法(Cuckoo Search,CS)在保持强大的全局搜索能力的同时,尽可能地提高局部搜索能力,在深入分析CS算法机理的基础上,将CS算法中影响布谷鸟搜索路径步长的参数β和布谷鸟蛋被发现(淘汰)的概率p_a由固定值改为随搜索过程自适应变化的动态参数,将越界的鸟窝折返回边界内、在当前代最优鸟窝附近的区域随机建立1个新的鸟窝、而非折返回边界上重新建立鸟窝,以提高算法的局部搜索能力和收敛速度。改进后的CS算法称为自适应布谷鸟搜索算法(Adaptive Cuckoo Search,ACS)。通过8个标准测试函数分别测试了CS算法和ACS算法的性能,结果表明,无论是简单的单峰函数还是复杂的多峰函数,无论是小型的低维函数还是大型的高维函数,ACS算法的寻优性能均超过CS算法。