Reliability analysis of a repairable duplex system

We analyse the survival time of a repairable duplex system characterised by cold standby and by a pre-emptive priority rule. We allow general probability distributions for failure and repair. Moreover, an important realistic feature of the system is the general assumption that the non-priority unit has a memory. This combination of features has not been analysed in the previous literature. Our (new) methodology is based on a concatenation of a Cauchy-type integral representation of the modified Heaviside unit-step function and a two-sided stochastic inequality. Finally, we introduce a security interval related to a security level and a suitable risk-criterion based on the survival function of the system. As a practical application, we analyse some particular cases of the survival function jointly with the security interval corresponding to a security level of 90.     

茂金属催化剂及其聚合物的进展

茂金属催化剂是近年出现的新型催化剂，技术进步很快。应用此催化剂生产的聚烯烃产量快速增加，正逐渐挤占非茂金属聚烯烃市场，而国内还没有茂金属聚烯烃的生产，产业前景广阔。推介了国外发展该技术及其产业的一些做法。     

基于总体最小二乘法的系统响应修正方法

为了提高实时洪水预报的预报精度,提出了基于总体最小二乘平差理论的系统响应方法。传统的系统响应方法基于最小二乘法,只能考虑观测值的误差,因而传统的系统响应方法不能考虑动态系统响应矩阵存在的误差。对传统方法进行了分析并引入了总体最小二乘平差理论,改进方法同时考虑了动态系统响应矩阵和观测值的误差。针对动态系统响应矩阵的病态情形,通过总体最小二乘的岭估计解法给出稳定解。通过改进方法对新安江模型中的土壤含水量进行修正,应用于七里街流域,并与传统的系统响应方法进行比较。结果表明,两种方法都能提高模拟精度,改进方法相比于传统方法精度明显提升;改进方法的修正效果要优于传统方法,更加稳定。     

ON THE ROBUST PREDICTION AND INTERPOLATION OF TIME SERIES IN THE PRESENCE OF CORRELATED NOISE

Abstract. We consider the problem of predicting and interpolating linearly a time series which can be represented as the sum of a model process with known spectral density and a noise process. The spectral density of the noise process is unknown with the exception of an upper bound for its integral. Some partial information of quite general kind about the cross spectral density of model and noise is available. We prove the existence of a robust predictor which minimizes the maximal mean-square error, where the maximum is taken over all spectral densities which may arise from the circumstances described above as spectral density of the predicted time series. An analogous result holds for the related interpolation problem. We describe how to derive the minimax robust predictor and interpolator in concrete situations. The method is illustrated by determining the robust predictor explicitly for three examples where model and noise may be arbitrarily, only causally or not at all correlated.     

基于数值预报模式的柘溪水库流域径流预报系统

水库的优化调度运行需要依赖预报准确率高、预见期长的径流预报结果。现有的柘溪水库流域径流预报系统由于未考虑水库流域未来时段的降水过程,径流预报的预见期和准确率无法满足汛期优化调度的要求。为此,在分析柘溪水库流域的水文和气候特征基础上,提出了数值预报模式和水文模型的耦合预报框架,设计了基于数值预报模式的柘溪水库流域径流预报系统架构,阐述了系统的主要功能与逻辑结构。通过系统的应用,可为提高汛期洪水的利用率、减少弃水、提高发电和防洪效益提供重要决策支撑。     

Stability Analysis and Controller Design of Discrete Interval Type‐2 Fuzzy Systems

This paper is concerned with trajectory stabilization of a computer simulated model car with uncertain velocity via type‐2 fuzzy control systems. First, stability conditions of discrete interval type‐2 fuzzy control systems are given in accordance with the definition of stability in the sense of Lyapunov. Then, we approximate a computer simulated model car, whose dynamics are nonlinear and velocity is uncertain. A type‐2 Takagi–Sugeno TS fuzzy controller is designed to handle system uncertainty. The control rules, which guarantee stability of the system, are derived from the approximated model. The simulation results show that the type‐2 fuzzy control rules can effectively stabilize the car model.     

环氧氯丙烷的生产技术与市场分析

综述了环氧氯丙烷国内外生产现状 ,消费概况及生产技术 ,并对其发展前景作了初步预测     

一类区间多目标粒子群优化算法

针对区间参数多目标优化问题,提出一种基于模糊支配的多目标粒子群优化算法。首先,定义基于决策者悲观程度的模糊支配关系,用于比较解的优劣;然后,定义一种适于区间目标值的拥挤距离,以更新外部存储器并从中选择领导粒子;最后,对多个区间多目标测试函数进行仿真实验,实验结果验证了所提出算法的有效性。     

RIAIL:大规模图上的可达性查询索引方法

图被广泛用来建模在社交网络、语义网、计算生物学和软件分析中的应用.可达性查询是图数据上的一种基础查询.当前,针对图上的可达性查询已经提出了一些索引算法,但是它们不能灵活地扩展到大的图数据.因此,提出了一种索引方法RIAIL(reachability index augmented by interval labeling).RIAIL将结点的标记信息表示成四元组.前两个元素是区间标记,编码生成树的可达性信息,后两个元素编码非树边的可达性信息.RIAIL查询时只需索引且索引创建代价小.最后,通过大量真实和人工生成数据集上的实验说明,RIAIL能够高效地处理可达性查询,并且可以简单地扩展到大的图数据.     

基于时滞分割法的区间变时滞不确定系统鲁棒稳定新判据

针对一类存在泛数有界不确性的区间变时滞线性系统, 利用Lyapunov-Krasovskii (L-K) 泛函方法并结合线性矩阵不等式(LMI) 技术建立一种新的保守性更低的鲁棒稳定性判据. 首先基于时滞分割方法将时滞区间均分成N 等分, 针对不同的子区间构造合适的L-K 泛函; 然后在各自的分割区间采用保守性较小的积分不等式处理泛函沿时间的导数, 基于凸组合技术建立了LMI 形式的时滞相关稳定性新判据; 最后通过数值实例验证了结论的有效性.