Modelling consumer choice through the random regret minimization model: An application in the food domain

In line with findings on post-purchase food-choice regret, one can expect that pre-purchase anticipated regret with respect to forgone (non-chosen) alternatives has an impact on consumer food choices, especially when the choice is considered to be important. The traditional Random Utility Maximization (RUM) models for discrete choices may not fully capture this impact. This study investigates the usefulness and potential in the food domain of a discrete choice model that follows the regret minimization principle, the Random Regret Minimization (RRM) model, as an alternative and complement to existing RUM models. The two models are applied to consumer stated choices of cheese in a choice experiment. The study also investigates whether and to what extent a number of personality traits determine whether particular consumers rather choose according to utility-maximization, or regret-minimization principles. Results show that at the aggregate level the two models have a similar goodness of fit to the data and prediction ability. Still, each of them shows better fit for particular subgroups of consumers, based on personality traits. Hence, the present study reveals a potential for the RRM model applications in the food domain, and adds to the empirical literature supporting previous findings on the RRM model found in other contexts. Further research is needed to explore in which situations and for which consumer segments the RRM model is the most useful model.     

海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐产量确定新方法

针对目前蒸汽吞吐产量预测模型假设条件简单、普适性差等问题,一般采用测试法和类比法综合确定海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量。由于目前海上油田通常只开展常规测试,无法直接获得热采开发初期产量。笔者提出海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量确定新方法,建立蒸汽吞吐相对于常规开发的初期产量倍数预测模型,通过蒸汽吞吐产量倍数,将常规测试确定的产量转化为蒸汽吞吐产量。研究表明,蒸汽吞吐初期产量倍数主要受储集层渗透率、原油黏度、注入强度、蒸汽干度等因素影响,利用正交试验设计和多元回归等方法,建立海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量倍数与油藏地质参数及注入参数之间的非线性预测模型,该模型经实际生产数据验证,预测误差小于5%,可靠性高,能够为海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量的确定提供依据。     

张峰水库溢洪道体型优化设计

本文对已设计的张峰水库溢洪道进行了模型试验,根据对试验结果分析,认为原方案设计存在一些问题,并针对问题进行了优化设计。通过对修改方案模型试验结果分析,得出修改方案改进了原方案中存在的不足,优化合理,是可以采用的。     

Model Selection for Unsupervised Learning of Visual Context

This study addresses the problem of choosing the most suitable probabilistic model selection criterion for unsupervised learning of visual context of a dynamic scene using mixture models. A rectified Bayesian Information Criterion (BICr) and a Completed Likelihood Akaike’s Information Criterion (CL-AIC) are formulated to estimate the optimal model order (complexity) for a given visual scene. Both criteria are designed to overcome poor model selection by existing popular criteria when the data sample size varies from small to large and the true mixture distribution kernel functions differ from the assumed ones. Extensive experiments on learning visual context for dynamic scene modelling are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of BICr and CL-AIC, compared to that of existing popular model selection criteria including BIC, AIC and Integrated Completed Likelihood (ICL). Our study suggests that for learning visual context using a mixture model, BICr is the most appropriate criterion given sparse data, while CL-AIC should be chosen given moderate or large data sample sizes.     

电路电磁兼容建模与仿真

提出了对暴露在任意外场中的传输线进行时频分析的新方法，这种方法非常稳定，它能够与任意的传输线模型和电路仿真方法兼容，并且使用这种方法得到的仿真值和实际值之间的差别小于1％。     

Note of clarification on Scholten and Sherman (2006): Erratum.

Reports an error in "Tradeoffs and Theory: The Double-Mediation Model" by Marc Scholten and Steven J. Sherman (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 2006 May, Vol 135[2], 237-261). This article was inadvertently printed with the incorrect title. The original title was "Tradeoffs and Conflict: The Double-Mediation Model." This title highlights the relation between tradeoffs and conflict as investigated by the authors and accounted for by their model. However, readers are asked to refer to the article by the title with which it was printed to facilitate its retrieval.. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2006-06642-006.) Most theories of decision making suggest that, when options imply tradeoffs between their attributes, conflict increases as tradeoff size increases, because greater sacrifices are to be incurred in choosing one option instead of another. An alternative view is that conflict decreases as tradeoff size increases, because stronger arguments can be made for any decision. The authors propose a unified model, the double-mediation model, which combines the mediating effects of sacrifice and argumentation. Our model generally predicts an inverse U-shaped relation between tradeoff size and conflict. Results support this prediction. Also, when the decision situation increases the mediating effect of sacrifice relative to that of argumentation, the relation between tradeoff size and conflict changes in an upward direction; conversely, when the decision situation increases the mediating effect of argumentation relative to that of sacrifice, the relation changes in a downward direction. Results support these predictions as well. Commonalities and differences between our model and other formulations are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

多裂纹混凝土等效断裂模型研究

根据混凝土材料断裂过程区存在尺寸效应这一特点,结合混凝土断裂韧度的尺寸效应规律,对混凝土有效裂缝扩展量进行了研究,得到反映尺寸效应规律的有效裂缝扩展量表达式,进而得到与试件尺寸相关的混凝土多裂纹等效断裂模型,使得多裂纹等效断裂模型更符合断裂过程区的尺寸效应规律。同时,通过与在实际工程中已用的其他模型的计算结果相比较,得出此模型比较可靠的结论。     

重力坝模型的尺寸效应

利用两个不同比尺预制缝重力坝模型的试验成果，以有限元富集技术进行非线性断裂分析，建立了极限承载力和长度比尺的确定性尺寸效应公式。混凝土重力坝的断裂尺寸效应满足指数衰减关系，用三次指数衰减公式可以准确地预测原型的极限承载力。断裂过程区的相对长度是引起模型试验尺寸效应的主要原因。数值计算结果表明，断裂过程区相对长度不仅是与材料有关的参数，能否充分发展还取决于结构尺寸和几何形状；断裂过程区相对长度的尺寸效应不同于统计尺寸效应和断裂参数尺寸效应，具有尺寸范围效应。断裂过程区相对长度在小试件、大试件和相对无穷大试件的发展程度不同。     

水泥浆失水制约下套管与井眼间隙的研究

通过对水泥浆失水规律的室内试验分析以厦对注水泥顶替过程中水泥浆失水桥堵套管与井眼间隙问题的研究，建立了顶替过程中滤失层不发生水泥浆失水而桥堵环形空间的临界失水量计算模型，提出了调配水泥浆失水性能和确定合理套管井眼间隙的具体方法，对注水泥现场施工和井身结构设计具有一定的指导意义。     

HEGF中CO井筒流动及扩散规律研究

目前,高能气体压裂广泛的应用于低渗透油气田,可以有效清除近井地带由于钻井、射孔和各种措施造成的污染和堵塞,达到油气井增产、注水井增注的目的。但最近一些低渗透油气田却出现了频繁的CO气体中毒事件,给油田及员工带来巨大的损失。针对这一现象,运用现场数据以及物理模拟和数学模拟方法首次通过对CO气体流动、扩散等的综合研究,建立了CO井筒流动及大气扩散模型。同时,也考察了井筒压力、气油比、风速、气体泄放速率、大气稳定度等主要因素对CO气体扩散的影响。通过现场实例计算,证实模型具有较高的准确性。此项工作的完成为建立监控系统提供基础技术依据,同时对合理、有效的开发油气田以及煤层气的开发将具有重要的实际意义。