基于模糊事件概率理论的水质风险率计算方法

针对水环境系统的随机不确定性和模糊不确定性，分析了影响水环境中水质风险的不完善性和模糊性因素，将水环境中水质风险作为一个模糊事件，利用模糊事件概率理论，提出了水环境水质超标的模糊随机风险率计算模型。通过引入模糊事件信息熵来评价隶属函数特征值取值的可靠程度，定量描述了隶属函数特征值与风险率的关系，进而计算出风险率。实例计算结果证明了方法的有效性。     

基于隐性故障模型和风险理论的关键线路辨识

在大规模电网中，由简单故障触发的电力系统连锁故障常常会引起大停电的灾难性后果。为了研究复杂电网连锁故障的传播机理，同时找出对连锁故障产生重要影响的关键线路，文中基于模拟连锁故障的隐性故障模型和风险理论，提出了复杂电力系统的线路故障风险评估方法，并辨识出了对系统大停电产生重要影响的一系列关键线路。模型考虑了线路过负荷保护、隐性故障、控制策略及系统运行等参数，对IEEE 118节点系统仿真结果表明，在重负荷状态运行下只对辨识出的少量关键线路加以改善，就可以使系统停电概率大幅减小，特别是大停电概率;在临界状态运行下改善少量关键线路，则可以使系统脱离临界状态，避免大停电发生。     

现役大坝泄洪能力风险率的MC分析

在水工水力学模型研究成果基础上,采用MC法对现役大坝泄洪能力风险率做进一步探讨,研究表明:(1)水力的不确定性对大坝防洪安全确实存在影响,但风险值较小;(2)国内绝大多数大中型现役坝的水力风险几近为0,设计偏于保守.由此可见,确定基于风险分析的大坝防洪安全标准和设计洪水标准,并据此来确定大坝坝顶高程,是非常必要的.     

Perceived risk for influenza in veterans with spinal cord injuries and disorders.

Objective: Guided by the extended parallel process model (EPPM), the objective was to assess control processes dominant in influenza behavior decisions. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Results: Response rate was 31% (n=968). Regarding influenza risk, 59% were in danger control. Those in fear control were more likely to report influenza infection (p=.000). In the nonvaccinated, those in fear control were more likely to indicate not knowing where to get the vaccine (p=.016) and that it was unavailable (p=.027), and those in danger control believed they did not need it (p=.023). Zero critical values were more likely to indicate that no health provider recommended the shot (p=.002). Conclusions: Most perceived efficacy to be stronger than threat related to influenza; according to the EPPM, they are aware of their risk but recognize their ability to avert it. For those in danger control, messages should focus on increasing perceptions of severity and susceptibility to positively affect behavior change. For those in fear control, messages should focus on efficacy only. With a critical value of zero, no threat is induced, and a high-threat/high-efficacy approach should be taken. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

水利工程建设项目的风险分析

水利工程建设中潜藏着众多风险，对风险进行有效分析是工程顺利建设的重要保证。水利工程风险分析是由风险识别、估算、评价、管理、控制决策等组成的科学体系。明确了水利工程中风险的定义，识别了水利工程的风险因素，论述了风险估算和评价的方法，并提出对工程风险进行管理和控制，以保证工程建设顺利进行。     

基于物元模型的警务信息化集成风险评价

警务信息化建设已经开始进入信息与系统集成的阶段,公安机关在此过程中面临着多种集成风险。分析警务信息化集成的背景与肯面临的各种风险,应用物元模型建立警务信息化集成风险的评价的指标体系与方法,给出相应的计算示例。结果表明该方法有效可行,为警务信息化集成风险评价提供一条新途径。     

A theory of reservation-dwelling American Indian alcohol use risk.

The authors present a theory for understanding risk for problem drinking among reservation-dwelling American Indians. The theory offers an overall framework for understanding the risk process for this group. It considers the distinction between factors that influence mean levels of American Indian problem drinking and factors that influence individual differences in American Indian drinking. It proposes important contextual differences between reservation-dwelling American Indians and Caucasians that may help explain the higher mean levels of American Indian problem drinking. The theory further holds that, within the high mean level of problem drinking characteristic of many American Indian reservations, individual differences in problem drinking can be explained by very similar personality and learning factors as those that influence problem-drinking levels for other ethnic groups. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Symmetric BEM formulations for 2-D steady-state and transit potential problems

This paper presents a new concept for symmetric boundary element method (SBEM) applicable to 2-D steady-state and transit potential problems. Two kinds of SBEM formulations are derived. Symmetry is obtained simply through matrix manipulation, and no hypersingularity appears. Therefore, SBEM is much easier than the traditional symmetric Galerkin BEM. Compared with the traditional asymmetric BEM, the present SBEM can reduce the computational cost for time domain problems only. However, when applied to BEM/FEM coupling procedure, SBEM can reduce the computational cost for both steady-state and time domain problems. Three numerical examples are included to illustrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the present formulations.     

Personality and the predisposition to engage in risky or problem behaviors during adolescence.

Longitudinal data from a representative sample of 1,978 Black and White adolescents were used to examine the role of personality in multiple risk or problem behaviors. Results indicate that covariation among diverse behaviors (educational underachievement, delinquent behavior, substance use, sexual behavior) can be adequately modeled by a single higher order factor, and that impulsivity and avoidance coping serve as generalized risk factors for involvement in these behaviors. Whereas none of the personality variables examined explained change in problem behaviors once established, avoidance coping prospectively predicted involvement among a subgroup of adolescents with little or no prior involvement. Results suggest that dysfunctional styles of regulating emotions and emotionally driven behaviors are core features of risky or problem behaviors during adolescence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

An ecological-transactional understanding of community violence: Theoretical perspectives.

Community violence has emerged as a major risk factor for the development of mental health problems in children and adolescents. If mental health providers are to meet the needs of children and communities dealing with community violence, then they will need to integrate principles from various subdisciplines in psychology (e.g., developmental psychology, school psychology, developmental psychopathology) as well as disciplines outside of psychology (e.g., sociology, public health, medicine) to understand fully the developmental impact of exposure to community violence. The development of such a model is necessary to identify the pathways, risk, and protective factors on which prevention and intervention programs can be built. The goal of this article is to present an ecological-transactional model of community violence as a conceptual framework for understanding the existing literature and for guiding future research on community violence exposure and child development. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)