Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety

The engineering and management of human safety is an important societal objective that includes extensive efforts by governments, both legislative and administrative, to enhance the health and safety of the public. Although the achievement of safety goals depend primarily on individuals and organizations responsible for safety, much support is drawn from expertise in diverse scientific and engineering disciplines. The activities range from structural safety (dams, tunnels, bridges to tall buildings) to safe operation of hazardous industrial installations (energy generation facilities, LNG terminals, petrochemical plants) to transportation systems (airline, rail, car safety) to technologies designed to minimize adverse impacts on the environment. All these activities are crucially concerned with risk: with the likelihood and the probable effects of various measures on life and health. We have developed a unified rationale and a clear basis for effective strategic management of risk across diverse sectors. Safety is an important objective in society but it is not the only one. The allocation of society's resources devoted to safety must be continually appraised in light of competing needs, because there is a limit on the resources that can be expended to extend life. The paper presents the Life Quality Index (LQI) as a tool for the assessment of risk reduction initiatives that would support the public interest and enhance safety and quality of life. The paper provides an intuitive reformulation of the LQI as equivalent to a valid utility function that is consistent with the principles of rational decision analysis. The LQI is further refined to consider the issues of discounting of life years, competing background risks, and population age and mortality distribution. The LQI is applied to quantify the societal willingness-to-pay, which is an acceptable level of public expenditure in exchange for a reduction in the risk of death that results in improved life-quality.     

多人决策的一类相对均衡解

本文分析由于决策人偏好不同而引起决策差异的多人多目标决策问题，提出了这类决策问题的一类相对均衡解的概念和求取方法。相对均衡解以决策群体偏好的加权集结为基础，能最大程度地反映每个决策人的偏好。文中研究相对均衡解的ＳＷＴ求取方法，并给出了求解的步骤。     

化学结构式的拓扑描述

化学结构式的拓扑描述,是化学信息计算机化的手段之一。这里系统地建立了一整套的连接表(三类:紧缩连接表、冗余连接表、和连接方阵),用来进行结构式中原子之间连接关系的拓扑描述,对分子结构进行数值化。同时,阐述了连接表唯一化的方法,并介绍了不同类型连接表之间的转换关系和还原为平面结构式图形的绘图程序。     

电信项目收入再分配模型研究

对收入再分配模型的现状和问题进行了分析,结合对机会成本理论的深度挖掘,创新性地建立了基于资本机会成本的收入再分配系数测算模型（单位业务能力匹配网络资源投资比例分摊法）。     

On the dynamic nature of response criterion in recognition memory: Effects of base rate, awareness, and feedback.

The authors examined whether participants can shift their criterion for recognition decisions in response to the probability that an item was previously studied. Participants in 3 experiments were given recognition tests in which the probability that an item was studied was correlated with its location during the test. Results from all 3 experiments indicated that participants' response criteria were sensitive to the probability that an item was previously studied and that shifts in criterion were robust. In addition, awareness of the bases for criterion shifts and feedback on performance were key factors contributing to the observed shifts in decision criteria. These data suggest that decision processes can operate in a dynamic fashion, shifting from item to item. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

龙开口水电站溢流坝段动力模型破坏试验研究

采用仿真混凝土材料研究了龙开口水电站溢流坝段在不同因素影响下的动力破坏特征,并通过对6个模型试验结果的分析探讨了溢流坝段的动力破坏机理。试验中考虑了坝体-库水的动力相互作用以及横河向地震动对大坝破坏的影响,采用规范谱波和场地谱波两种地震动激励进行模型超载破坏分析。试验结果为工程设计和评价溢流坝段的抗震性能提供依据。     

决策表中加权关联规则挖掘的研究

通过对规则支持高度提出新的定义 ,对现有的模型进行了扩展 ,并由此提出了新的关联规则挖掘算法     

TRANSFER FUNCTION MODEL ORDER AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION

Abstract. A distributed lag model with a rational transfer function is considered. We have demonstrated that the C -table can be used to determine the orders of the rational transfer function and the Padé table can be used to estimate the parameters of an identifiable transfer function. In case the model is not uniquely identified, the C -table reduces possible competing models to only a few for further examination. Padé approximant gives consistent initial values for possibly more efficient iterative procedures to estimate the coefficients of the identified model. Some asymptotic results on the estimation of the C -table and the Padé table are given. A few examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.     

A time aggregation approach to Markov decision processes

We propose a time aggregation approach for the solution of infinite horizon average cost Markov decision processes via policy iteration. In this approach, policy update is only carried out when the process visits a subset of the state space. As in state aggregation, this approach leads to a reduced state space, which may lead to a substantial reduction in computational and storage requirements, especially for problems with certain structural properties. However, in contrast to state aggregation, which generally results in an approximate model due to the loss of Markov property, time aggregation suffers no loss of accuracy, because the Markov property is preserved. Single sample path-based estimation algorithms are developed that allow the time aggregation approach to be implemented on-line for practical systems. Some numerical and simulation examples are presented to illustrate the ideas and potential computational savings.