基于多模型随机组合的水文集合预报方法研究

准确、可靠的水文预报是水资源开发利用的基础。集合预报以概率或区间的形式表征预报的不确定性,是未来水文预报研究的重点发展方向。本文提出了一种基于多模型随机组合的水文集合预报方法。首先通过加权形式将多种预报模型进行组合;再采用多目标优化算法率定各成员模型权重的上、下限;最后在优化的上、下限内随机生成权重以构建集合预报。以汉江黄金峡水库中长期径流预报为研究对象,考虑月、旬两种预见期,构建了六种单一预报模型,采用非支配排序遗传算法对权重进行优化后得到集合预报样本。结果表明：所提方法能更好地反映预报的不确定性,且均值预报结果明显优于贝叶斯模型平均法和单一确定性预报模型,具有一定竞争力。     

The Contribution of Small Vessel Disease to Neurodegeneration: Focus on Alzheimer’s Disease,Parkinson’s Disease and Multiple Sclerosis

Brain small vessel disease (SVD) refers to a variety of structural and functional changes affecting small arteries and micro vessels, and manifesting as white matter changes, microbleeds and lacunar infarcts. Growing evidence indicates that SVD might play a significant role in the neurobiology of central nervous system (CNS) neurodegenerative disorders, namely Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and Parkinson’s disease (PD), and neuroinflammatory diseases, such as multiple sclerosis (MS). These disorders share different pathophysiological pathways and molecular mechanisms (i.e., protein misfolding, derangement of cellular clearance systems, mitochondrial impairment and immune system activation) having neurodegeneration as biological outcome. In these diseases, the actual contribution of SVD to the clinical picture, and its impact on response to pharmacological treatments, is not known yet. Due to the high frequency of SVD in adult-aged patients, it is important to address this issue. In this review, we report preclinical and clinical data on the impact of SVD in AD, PD and MS, with the main aim of clarifying the predictability of SVD on clinical manifestations and treatment response.     

基于改进DaNN的综合能源系统多能负荷预测

随着能源革命的推进及双碳目标的提出,综合能源系统越发受到广大研究者的重视,对综合能源系统进行高效的规划和控制离不开精准的多能负荷预测。基于上述需求,引入迁移学习理论,提出一种改进领域自适应神经网络（DaNN）负荷预测模型对综合能源系统中的冷、热、电负荷进行统一建模与预测。首先,通过历史数据分别构筑冷、热、电负荷特征图,随后输入改进DaNN的参数共享卷积层和全连接层;其次,基于冷、热、电负荷联合预测的特点改进传统神经网络的损失函数,加入最大均值差异指标,并优化训练模型;最后,通过3个各自独立的全连接层分别输出冷、热、电负荷的预测值。通过采用实际算例验证并与基准模型对比可知,所提改进DaNN模型能够有效提高综合能源多能负荷预测精度。     

Microstructure and properties of WC-8Co cemented carbides prepared by multiple spark plasma sintering

In this study, WC-8Co cemented carbides were prepared by spark plasma sintering. When the samples sintered at 1300℃ were cooled to room temperature, the samples were sintered multiple times at 1250℃. The changes in microstructure and mechanical properties of WC-8Co cemented carbides prepared by multiple spark plasma sintering were studied. The hardness of cemented carbides increased in the first two sintering, reaching 16.5 GPa. However, the hardness decreased seriously in the last two sintering. The attenuation rates of hardness were 6.2% and 2.5% due to the abnormal coarse grains. Furthermore, the crack path along the grain boundary was almost straight, causing a decrease in the indentation fracture toughness of cemented carbides. Additionally, the grains of cemented carbides were abnormally coarsened, and the morphologies of grains became unstable due to multiple sintering.     

高压粉末制样-X射线荧光光谱法测定海洋沉积物中28种组分

常规粉末压片制样是一种简单、高效的绿色环保制样技术,但是应用于某些沉积物样品制备存在样片表面粗糙和粉末容易脱落的问题。实验采用高于常规的压力进行样品制备,建立了X射线荧光光谱法(XRF)分析海洋沉积物样品中包括硫、氧化钠、氧化镁、三氧化二铝、二氧化硅、五氧化二磷、氧化钾、氧化钙、二氧化钛、氧化锰、三氧化二铁、钴、镍、铜、锌、钒、铬、镓、铌、锆、钇、锶、铷、铅、钡、镧、钕和铪在内的28种主、微量组分的方法。探讨了压力为300 kN和1 600 kN时的制样效果,并尝试引入BP神经网络模型利用其非线性拟合能力校正主量组分的基体效应。结果表明,采用1 600 kN压力制备的样片,表面致密、光滑、不龟裂和不掉粉,制样重复性和测试精密度也有较大提高。以55个有证标准物质中17种组分的数据集为训练样本,建立了海洋沉积物样品中主、微量组分的遗传算法-BP神经网络预测模型。按照实验方法对各组分含量相对较低的实际样品连续测试12次,计算得方法的检出限在 0.63～634 μg/g之间;精密度试验结果表明,各组分测定值的相对标准偏差(RSD, n=7)为0.16%～25.1%。方法用于海洋沉积物实际样品分析,其分析结果与国标法的测定结果吻合,能够满足海洋沉积物样品中多种组分准确分析的要求。     

Unique microstructure and property of a 2024 aluminum alloy subjected to upsetting extrusion multiple processing

The microstructure and hardness of a 2024 aluminum alloy subjected to multi-pass upsetting extrusion at ambient temperature were studied. Experimental results indicated that with the number of upsetting extrusion passes increasing, the grains of the alloy are gradually refined and the hardness increases correspondingly. After ten passes of upsetting extrusion processing, the grain size decreases to less than 200 nm in diameter and the sample maintains its original shape, while the hardness is double owing to equal-axial ultrafine grains and work hardening effect caused by large plastic deformation.     

论高校内部权力

本文从释解权力的概念着手,较为详细地分析了高校内部权力的类型、来源与作用方式。文章认为,高校内部的最基本权力除了行政权力、学术权力和学生权力之外,有时还存在政党权力,但由于各国的政治体制和历史传统不同,高校内部的主导性权力,可能各不相同。此外,来自社会的市场力量,也会对高校内部权力结构及权力相互制衡模式产生一定的影响。     

Quantification of secondary structure prediction improvement using multiple alignments

The use of multiple sequence alignments for secondary structurepredictions is analysed. Seven different protein families, containingonly sequences of known structure, were considered to providea range of alignment and prediction conditions. Using alignmentsobtained by spatial superposition of main chain atoms in knowntertiary protein structures allowed a mean of 8% in secondarystructure prediction accuracy, when compared to those obtainedfrom the individual sequences. Substitution of these alignmentsby those determined directly from an automated sequence alignmentalgorithm showed variations in the prediction accuracy whichcorrelated with the quality of the multiple alignments and distanceof the primary sequence. Secondary structure predictions canbe reliably improved using alignments from an automatic alignmentprocedure with a mean increase of 6.87percnt;, giving an overallprediction accuracy of 68.5%, if there is a minimum of 25% sequenceidentity between all sequences in a family.     

Trickle Flow Multiplicity: The Influence of the Prewetting Procedure on Flow Hysteresis

The existence of multiple hydrodynamic studies (MHS) in trickle flow is a well-known phenomenon. It is also known that different prewetting procedures result in major differences in MHS when the hydrodynamic variables pressure drop, liquid holdup and gas–liquid mass transfer are considered. Given a certain prewetting procedure one still has the option to perform flow hysteresis cycles to achieve an even wider variety of MHS. Although numerous studies have been performed on trickle flow hysteresis, none have attempted to decouple the hysteresis behaviour from the prewetting procedure followed. Accordingly there are numerous hysteresis possibilities that have not been investigated. In this work a single liquid and gas cycle were performed for four distinct prewetting procedures described here as a dry bed, a Levec type prewetted bed, Kan prewetted bed (achieved by increasing either the liquid or the gas flow rate until the pulsing flow regime is reached) and a Super prewetted bed. Pressure drop, liquid holdup and gas–liquid mass transfer are the hydrodynamic parameters studied to quantify the various MHS. It is shown that the shape and extent of the hysteresis cycle are strongly dependant on the prewetting procedure. In terms of flow structure, similar hysteresis trends on the Kan Liquid and Super prewetting modes indicate that these modes are hydrodynamically similar. The additional measurement of the hysteresis behaviour of gas–liquid mass transfer proofs that neither holdup nor pressure drop can be used as an indicator of the distribution uniformity.