基于名义尺度的空间自相关指数测度方法研究*

从空间自相关的基本构成出发,提出了一种测度名义尺度的空间自相关指数——自邻接指数,给出了基于名义尺度下全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关的测度方法,并在ArcView平台下通过Avenue二次编程进行了算法实现。最后通过例子展示了自邻接指数在土地利用格局分析中发挥的重要作用。     

规则格网DTM快速构建算法研究*

规则格网(Grid)是数字地形模型(DTM)最常用的表示方法,有着广泛的应用。研究了基于离散点、三角网两种空间数据的规则格网快速构建算法。实验表明,分块索引方法及扫描线填充方法的引入实现了规则格网的快速生成,在大数据量条件下,效果也非常明显。     

液压卧倒闸坝在拦河坝工程中的应用

简述液压卧倒闸坝在江西省宜春市袁州区温汤镇防洪工程拦河坝中的应用。设计通过对多方案技术经济比选,推荐采用液压卧倒闸坝。可供类似工程参考。     

Flood Management in Japan—From Rivers to Basins

Abstract

The River Commission of the Ministry of Construction in Japan recommended a basin response to floods in its December 2000 Interim Report to Minister of Construction. This is practically an official declaration of the policy accepting inundation in habited areas. By this policy shift, it is anticipated that more basin response measures and non-structural measures against floods will be promoted to complement structural measures such as continuous levees and dams. Such a policy is not new in the world but is a significant governmental move in Japan, a densely populated, highly developed, and highly flood hazardous country. Although living with floods is a universal coping strategy, the implementation of measures should be different from region to region reflecting region's nature and socio-economic conditions. This paper reviews the flood fighting history of Japan and her statutory evolution against floods and shows the process by which the ever-increasing flood damage potential and the recent increase of flood damages necessitated the official move in flood control management from rivers to basins.     

关于堤防道路功能分类的思考

因地制宜的确定堤防道路的各项功能,明确堤防道路性质,不但能为堤防道路规划和建设提供指导,而且是堤防道路综合利用的重要基础工作。考虑到堤防道路与普通道路在功能上的差异,根据相关规范和我国近年来堤防道路的建设情况,分析了堤防道路在功能分类中存在的问题,探讨了堤防道路具备的各项功能,提出了关于堤防道路功能分类的几个原则和观点。     

人类活动对流域洪水过程的影响分析

流域洪水过程受降雨、流域下垫面等多种因素的综合影响,其中人类活动对流域出口洪水过程的影响在近些年越来越明显。选择第二松花江丰满水库以上为典型流域,在调查资料整理和分析的基础上,利用三水源新安江模型,结合人类活动对洪水的主要影响方式,建立了人类活动与模型参数之间的相关关系,依据参数物理意义对WM,B进行改进,并进行场次洪水模拟。通过结果对比分析可知,该方法模拟精度较高,模拟结果能合理反映人类活动对实际洪水过程的影响,可以为该流域水利工程建设与洪水预报提供参考,对其他流域洪水的研究也具有借鉴意义。     

水利工程对河网连通性的影响研究——以太湖西苕溪流域为例

河网连通性对维护河流生态系统的结构和功能具有重要作用,水利工程可改变天然河网的连通性,直接威胁到河流生态系统的健康与稳定。利用空间分析、连续性指标以及树状河网连通性指数等方法,深入探讨了闸坝对河网连通性的影响。结果表明,树状河网连通性指数能够较为全面地分析不同数量、可通过性及地理位置的闸坝对河网连通性的影响,可以广泛应用于流域规划过程中不同方案的比较,从而为水利工程设施的选址及设计提供参考。     

Predicting dam failure risk for sustainable flood retention basins: A generic case study for the wider Greater Manchester area

This study aims to provide a rapid screening tool for assessment of sustainable flood retention basins (SFRBs) to predict corresponding dam failure risks. A rapid expert-based assessment method for dam failure of SFRB supported by an artificial neural network (ANN) model has been presented. Flood storage was assessed for 110 SFRB and the corresponding Dam Failure Risk was evaluated for all dams across the wider Greater Manchester study area. The results show that Dam Failure Risk can be estimated by using the variables Dam Height, Dam Length, Maximum Flood Water Volume, Flood Water Surface Area, Mean Annual Rainfall (based on Met Office data), Altitude, Catchment Size, Urban Catchment Proportion, Forest Catchment Proportion and Managed Maximum Flood Water Volume. A cross-validation R² value of 0.70 for the ANN model signifies that the tool is likely to predict variables well for new data sets. Traditionally, dams are considered safe because they have been built according to high technical standards. However, many dams that were constructed decades ago do not meet the current state-of-the-art dam design guidelines. Spatial distribution maps show that dam failure risks of SFRB located near cities are higher than those situated in rural locations. The proposed tool could be used as an early warning system in times of heavy rainfall.     

基于考虑外生变量的SWARCH模型对中国股市波动性的实证研究

货币供应量是货币政策的主要调控指标,在很大程度上影响着股市的波动情况,作者将货币供应量作为外生变量加入到SWARCH模型中,建立了上证指数的考虑外生变量的SWARCH模型,实证研究结果表明该模型具有较好的拟合和预测效果．     

南四湖水体富营养化时空比较分析与评价

南四湖是南水北调东线工程重要的输水通道和调蓄湖泊之一,随着通水时间的临近,其水质安全和水体富营养化状况备受关注．根据2006、2007、2010和2011年4次32个采样点的南四湖水质空间分布监测数据,采用综合营养状态指数法进行评价．结果表明,4个监测年枯水期南四湖水体总体平均处于富营养轻度水平,在南四湖水质得到大幅度改善的情况下,各年营养水平变化不大;南阳湖和独山湖水体的综合营养状态指数出现下降趋势,而昭阳湖（下）和微山湖岛北水体的综合营养状态指数出现上升趋势,这与全湖总磷出现均一化趋势有关．2010-2011年除微山湖岛南水体处于中营养水平外,其他湖区水体均处于富营养轻度水平．对南四湖水质空间分布监测数据的分析表明,南四湖藻类水华的繁殖生长主要受水体中TP的制约．