未来气候变化影响下的流域面源污染负荷特征响应评估

针对流域面源污染负荷在未来气候变化影响下的变化特征,以我国新安江上游率水流域为例,使用通用流域污染负荷模型(GWLF),对其2000-2013年的水量及总氮、总磷面源污染负荷通量进行了模拟,并解析了其负荷来源分配。在此基础上,基于政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)的气候变化评估报告结果,利用GWLF模型分析了到21世纪20年代、50年代、80年代在A1FI(最高排放)和B1(最低排放)情景下,率水流域的水文及总氮、总磷面源污染负荷特征变化。结果表明:未来气候变化对流域水文及面源污染负荷特征均有一定影响。年水资源量先减少后增加,地表径流量和蒸发量逐渐上升而地下水量逐渐下降。到2080s,A1FI情景比B1情景有更多的水资源量。年总氮通量先增加后减少,在2050s最高,而年总磷通量则逐渐增加,且两种污染物均在A1FI排放情景下有更高的污染负荷量,表明人类温室气体的排放会潜在地增加流域水体面源污染负荷。     

驾驶疲劳状态波动性特征的识别方法

针对疲劳状态变化的波动性特征,基于心率变异性指标构建了一种驾驶疲劳状态识别方法.以驾驶行为绩效为疲劳客观测评指标,给出了适应疲劳波动性特征的驾驶疲劳分级方法.以心率变异性的3项时域指标、5项频域指标为特征因子构建驾驶疲劳识别特征向量,结合支持向量机提出了一种适应小样本的驾驶疲劳状态识别模型.采用10名驾驶员连续4 h的驾驶行为绩效与心电数据,对模型方法予以了测试.测试结果表明:10名驾驶员1级、2级疲劳状态的正确识别率介于70%~82%,平均正确识别率为75%.     

土体抗剪强度指标变异水平对边坡稳定安全系数取值的影响

针对传统的边坡稳定极限平衡方法不能考虑土体抗剪强度指标变异性影响的问题,基于极限状态的概率分析原理,采用Monte-Carlo法对均质路堤边坡的稳定性开展了可靠度计算,讨论了稳定安全系数一定的条件下边坡失效概率随土体抗剪强度指标变异水平的变化规律,分析了安全系数与边坡可靠指标的对应关系及其随土体抗剪强度指标变异水平的变化特征。研究表明：边坡可靠度受土体抗剪强度指标变异性影响显著,呈现出随土体抗剪强度指标变异水平提高而急剧减小的趋势;为保证边坡具有相同的可靠性,安全系数的取值应与土体抗剪强度指标的变异性相适应,据此提出了基于可靠指标和土体抗剪强度指标变异水平的安全系数取值原则及其对应的三参数函数关系式。     

Combined Effects of Reservoir Operations and Climate Warming on the Flow Regime of Hydropower Bypass Reaches of California's Sierra Nevada

Alterations to flow regimes from regulation and climatic change both affect the biophysical functioning of rivers over long time periods and large spatial areas. Historically, however, the effects of these flow alteration drivers have been studied separately. In this study, results from unregulated and regulated river management models were assessed to understand how flow regime alterations from river regulation differ under future climate conditions in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. Four representative flow alteration metrics—mean annual flow, low flow duration, centroid timing and mean weekly rate of decrease—were calculated and statistically characterized under historical and future unregulated and regulated conditions over a 20‐year period at each of the eight regulated river locations below dams across the Sierra Nevada. Future climatic conditions were represented by assuming an increase in air temperature of 6 °C above historical (1981–2000) air temperatures, with no change in other meteorological conditions. Results indicate that climate warming will measurably alter some aspects of the flow regime. By comparison, however, river regulation with business‐as‐usual operations will alter flow regimes much more than climate warming. Existing reservoirs can possibly be used to dampen the anticipated effects of climate warming through improved operations, though additional research is needed to identify the full suite of such possibilities. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

木垒河悬移质泥沙特性分析

河流泥沙是反映流域水土流失严重程度和河川径流特性的重要指标,是合理开发利用地表水资源,建设水利设施必须考虑的一个重要指标。河流泥沙不仅关系河流本身的发展演变,也反映了流域环境特性及人类活动的影响。木垒河是一条多沙河流,泥沙问题不太引起关注,研究也相对缺乏。本文就木垒河泥沙资料分析,对木垒河泥沙的主要来源、分部、年内变化等时空演变进行了初步分析,为木垒河流域水资源合理开发提供一定的参考。     

Trajectory-based human action segmentation

This paper proposes a sliding window approach, whose length and time shift are dynamically adaptable in order to improve model confidence, speed and segmentation accuracy in human action sequences. Activity recognition is the process of inferring an action class from a set of observations acquired by sensors. We address the temporal segmentation problem of body part trajectories in Cartesian Space in which features are generated using Discrete Fast Fourier Transform (DFFT) and Power Spectrum (PS). We pose this as an entropy minimization problem. Using entropy from the classifier output as a feedback parameter, we continuously adjust the two key parameters in a sliding window approach, to maximize the model confidence at every step. The proposed classifier is a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model where classes are estimated using Bayesian inference. We compare our approach with our previously developed fixed window method. Experiments show that our method accurately recognizes and segments activities, with improved model confidence and faster convergence times, exhibiting anticipatory capabilities. Our work demonstrates that entropy feedback mitigates variability problems, and our method is applicable in research areas where action segmentation and classification is used. A working demo source code is provided online for academical dissemination purposes, by requesting the authors.     

地下水流速及介质非均质性对重非水相流体运移的影响

重非水相流体(DNAPL)在地下介质中的运移分布受多种因素影响,包括DNAPL的物化性质、泄漏速率、地下水流速和介质非均质性等。本文采用地质统计方法生成渗透率随机场刻画非均质性,运用T2VOC模拟不同流速情形下DNAPL在均质/非均质介质中的运移分布,以评估地下水流速和非均质性对DNAPL运移的影响。研究结果表明,地下水流速的增大显著促进了DNAPL的水平和垂向运移。相同流速情形下,非均质性的增强使得DNAPL污染羽分布形态及运移路径的空间变异性增强,出现明显的蓄积和绕流。当DNAPL运移的优势通道方向与流速方向相反时,水流对DNAPL水平运移的促进作用将减弱,反之,其促进作用增强。随着流速与非均质性的同时增强,水平方向上污染羽的扩散范围增大,另外水平和垂直方向上质心位置(一阶矩)及展布范围(二阶矩),污染池起始位置及其长度的空间变异离散程度增大。     

海河流域近现代降水量变化若干特征

根据器测资料、代用资料和文献资料,综合分析海河流域1956年以来、1880年以来和1736年以来降水量变化的主要特征,探讨影响降水多年代尺度变化的可能机制。结果表明:1海河流域平均年降水量距平百分率在1956—2013年表现出较明显下降趋势,每10 a下降速率为2.6%,但在1880—2012年期间下降趋势很弱;21736—2012年,海河流域平均年降水量距平百分率未表现出任何长期趋势变化,1956年以来和1880年以来的趋势性减少现象也不再显得异常,但存在一系列年代到多年代尺度振动;320世纪40年代后期到60年代早期是1736年以来最湿润阶段,但20世纪初以来几次持续性干旱,包括1997—2003年的严重干旱,在1736年以来历史上并非罕见,1826—1843年曾出现持续时间最长的严重干旱;4海河流域平均年降水量具有准周期性振动特点,较明显的准周期包括2~7 a、11 a、22~23 a、33 a和63~65 a;520世纪60年代后期以来海河流域降水的趋势性减少,是区域气候63~65 a自然低频周期性振动的组成部分,预计未来几十年整个流域降水量总体上将呈增多趋势,并可能在2035—2040年达到峰值区间。     

我国北方区域地下水演化研究综述

基于"六五"至"十二五"期间有关区域地下水演化的国家和省部级重点科技项目主要成果,对近30年来我国地下水演化研究的主要进展进行了综述。我国区域地下水演化研究主要集中在北方地区,项目选题的起源和立项的时代背景具有鲜明的时代性和社会重大需求驱动,包括华北和西北地区流域尺度地下水演化的国家重点项目研究,都是围绕国家目标或区域经济发展重大需求,及时揭示了气候变化和人类活动影响下区域地下水演化的关键科技问题,突显了重大科学研究的时代性和必要性。     

IT Service Climate—An Essential Managerial Tool to Improve Client Satisfaction With IT Service Quality

Although client satisfaction surveys can assess client satisfaction with IT service quality, they cannot easily be used to pinpoint how internal IT behaviors influence client satisfaction and prescribe solutions. This research fills the gap by introducing a concept— IT Service Climate—and a validated ten-item instrument that significantly explained client ratings of IT service quality. We recommend this measure as an effective diagnostic tool for managers aiming to improve quality and client satisfaction.