操纵员心理评价方法研究

文章对核电厂操纵员心理定性化评价以及定量化评价方法进行分析和探讨。对轮廓图匹配法和模糊综合评价法的适用范围、应用效果进行了比较分析。该研究的结果可为操纵员评价提供有益参考。     

基于多随机变量风险约束的水电站长期优化调度

针对市场环境下水电站如何综合考虑电价和来水等不确定性因素下的优化调度是当前研究的热点和难点,建立了考虑电价和来水等不确定性因素的风险约束水电站长期优化调度模型。根据此模型发电商可方便地在预期的目标收益和风险之间进行权衡,达到以较小的风险获得较大的收益的目的。以二滩电厂实算为例,表明了该模型的有效性。     

基于随机分析和概率预测的固定式海洋平台结构风险评估研究

对极端海况进行了环境荷载的联合概率分析。引入了整体不确定性和敏感性分析理论,利用非正态过程、具有不同相关性的多变量随机模拟技术,求解结构的失效概率。提出结构失效分析的新方法,并利用DNV提供的历史数据,对结构失效的后果做了适当分析。以埕北12-C井组平台为实例,对平台甲板高程(Air Gap)失效分析进行了实例计算。结果表明,使用多维联合极值分布理论及相应的求解方法,是离岸工程结构物风险评估的重要手段。     

Temperament in Childhood Predicts Body Mass in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

This study examined associations of temperament at ages 6 to 12 with body-mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) at ages 24 to 30 years. The participants were 619 men and women derived from the population-based Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. Temperament was operationalized as (negative) emotionality, sociability, and activity. High emotionality predicted increased BMI, independently of WC, and independently of childhood and adulthood risk factors for adult obesity. None of the temperament dimensions had any associations with WC after controlling for BMI. The findings suggest that temperamental difficulty in childhood may be a useful risk indicator for general body mass in adulthood, and the mechanisms relating temperament with body mass should be further explored. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Investigations of water inrushes from aquifers under coal seams

In many coal mines, limestone-confined aquifers underlie coal seams. During coal extraction from these mines, water inrushes occur frequently with disastrous consequences. This paper introduces the hydrogeological conditions of the coal mines and the potential water inrush disasters from aquifers under coal seams. It then presents the water inrush mechanism. The main factors which control water inrushes include strata pressure, mining size, geologic structures and the water pressure in the underlying aquifer. Analysis shows that reduction of confinement due to mining is the major cause of the water-conducting failure in the floor strata. The depth of the failure zone is strongly dependent on the mining width. This paper also presents field observation results of the water-conducting failure in the floor strata, and applies the finite element method coupled with stress-dependent permeability to analyze hydraulic conductivity enhancement due to coal extraction. Finally, theoretical and empirical methods to predict water inrushes are given, and technical measures for improving mine design and safety for coal extraction over aquifers are presented. These measures include fault and fracture grouting and mining method modification such as changing long-wall to short-wall mining.     

海底管道系统失效故障树的建立及定性分析

受自然环境、管道腐蚀、第三方破坏及管理不善等因素的影响,海底管道系统在铺设及运行过程中常常会失效。文中以海底管道穿孔、凝管、断裂和设备故障等主要失效形式为顶事件建立了海底管道系统失效故障树,通过系统的定性分析得到了海底管道系统失效故障树的37个一阶最小割集,进而确定了影响海底管道系统失效的4项主要因素,并针对这些主要因素提出了相应的解决问题的措施。     

一种考虑分布电容的模糊故障测距算法

提出了一种考虑分布电容的故障测距新算法。该算法基于微分方程描述的线路数学模型，利用单端信息对高压输电线路进行故障测距，保留了解微分方程算法的简单可靠、现实可行、不必考虑衰减直流分量和谐波及电网频率波动影响的特点，同时考虑过渡电阻和分布电容的影响，克服了传统解微分方程法中在经高阻接地故障时测距误差过大和忽略分布电容引起的故障定位不准确的缺点。为了检验算法的精度，进行了大量的动模实验。结果表明，算法原理正确并具有较高的测距精度。     

大坝洪水漫顶风险评估

洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。     

国有公路运输企业改革创效的现实选择

通过对公路运输企业经营实践的考察 ,介绍了国有公路运输企业改革创效的一些现实选择 ,以供运输公司经营借鉴 ,从而摆脱困境 ,取得良好业绩     

18臂机械井径与磁法井径组合测井仪原理及应用

文章主要介绍了18臂机械井径与磁法井径组合测井仪的仪器结构、主要技术特性、测量原理及测井资料在油田中的应用。通过对测井资料的分析，阐述了该仪器在套损检测、补贴效果检查、射孔工程作业效果评价等方面的应用，为油田套管分析提供了可靠的保证。