灰色预测模型在油气操作成本预测中的应用

油气操作成本是油气田生产消耗的主要项目，为了有效地控制油气操作成本，必须制定准确的油气操作成本计划。而油气操作成本在我国是最近几年才提出来的，数据项比较少，给油气操作成本预测带来一定的难度。为此，文章根据灰色预测的基本原理，采用灰色系统理论进行油气操作成本预测，就可以弥补对预测所需的数据少，而且也无须剔除不可比因素，只要所建模型能满足精度要求，预测结果就可以信赖。     

天然气产业链下游市场风险评价模型探讨

随着我国天然气主干管网的逐步形成，天然气产业链下游市场正在进入快速成长阶段，建立风险预警系统的重要性开始显现，而风险评价模型是其基础工作之一。文章在天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价指标体系的基础上，综合运用层次分析法和灰色系统理论，建立了对天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价的模型，并以各区域市场的用气量占全国总用气量的比重为权重，建立起完整的市场风险评价模型，可为评价天然气产业链下游市场整体市场风险时参考。     

沉管隧道水下最终接头施工技术初探

简述了沉管隧道水下最终接头施工技术的应用现状，结合具体隧道工程实例，从外模工程、混凝土结构两方面介绍了最终接头施工技术，表明了该技术具有运用价值。     

On the effects of the packet size distribution on the packet loss process

Real-time multimedia applications have to use forward error correction (FEC) anderror concealment techniques to cope with losses in today’s best-effort Internet. The efficiency of these solutions is known however to depend on the correlation between losses in the media stream. In this paper we investigate how the packet size distribution affects the packet loss process, that is, the distribution of the number of lost packets in a block, the related FEC performance and the average loss run length. We present mathematical models for the loss process of the MMPP+M/D/1/K and the MMPP+M/M/1/K queues; we validate the models via simulations, and compare the results to simulation results with an MPEG-4 coded video trace. We conclude that the deterministic packet size distribution (PSD) not only results in lower stationary loss probability than the exponential one, but also gives a less correlated loss process, both at a particular average link load and at a particular stationary loss probability as seen by the media stream.Our results show that for applications that can only measure the packet loss probability, the effects of the PSD on FEC performance are higher in access networks, where a single multimedia stream might affect the multiplexing behavior. Our results show that the effects of the PSD on FEC performance are higher in access networks, where a single multimedia stream might affect the multiplexing behavior and thus can improve the queuing performance by decreasing the variance of its PSD.     

隐秘通信系统的对策论模型

运用对策论方法，构造了隐秘通信系统的对策论模型，研究了信息隐藏者采用最优策略，在现有的隐秘通信技术条件下，能够更好地达到自己的预期目标。     

热镀锌板(卷)工程设计中的环境保护问题

对热镀锌板(卷)的生产工艺、主要生产设备进行了简要介绍，并就其污染源(工序)、生产过程中产生的污染物及其控制措施进行了评述，同时就设计和生产中宜注意的几个环保问题进行了分析。     

双贴合无光焦度校正板在主反射镜前的两镜系统的像差特性

在光学系统中特别是反射系统中经常通过加无光焦度校正板来减少或消除其他元件所产生的像差。讨论了双贴合无光焦度校正板放在主镜前的双反射球面系统，根据像差理论分析了消像差的条件，研究了系统中各种参数的变化对系统高级残余像差的影响。结果表明主镜的相对孔径越大，系统的残余像差增加；正透镜在前的校正板结构优于负透镜在前的结构；选择合适的校正板单透镜的光焦度，可使系统的高级残余像差最小。     

基于模式理论光栅椭偏参数反演的数值模拟

将一种广泛用于求解系统优化问题的方法——正单纯形法，求解光栅的椭偏方程。首先，利用求解光栅的傅立叶模式理论对TE和TM波的复反射系数进行求解。然后计算出其相应的椭偏参数(△，Ψ)，并在该值的基础上加入不同偏差的随机高斯噪声，将加入噪声后的值(△m，Ψm)作为模拟测量值。最后使用优化算法进行反演。通过对几种常用面形光栅椭偏参数的数值模拟，一方面表明傅立叶模式理论计算光栅的椭偏参数不仅精度高。而且速度快；另一方面表明利用正单纯形法得到的光栅参数值很接近于正演时假设的参数值，从而从理论上证明了利用椭偏法测量光栅各种光学参数的可行性。     

Damage Development in Gray Cast Iron under Static Deformation

The authors discuss the results of experimental investigation of structural degradation of gray cast iron at various stages of static tensile deformation. Analysis of the deformation process has revealed that damageability of a material under loading can be assessed by both a special strain parameter and scatter of hardness characteristics or a ratio of the modulus deviation to the current value of the elastic modulus. A correlation between these parameters has been established.