基于粒子群优化和支持向量机的花粉浓度预测模型

为了提高花粉浓度预报的准确率，解决现有花粉浓度预报准确率不高的问题，提出了一种基于粒子群优化（PSO）算法和支持向量机（SVM）的花粉浓度预报模型。首先，综合考虑气温、气温日较差、相对湿度、降水量、风力、日照时数等多种气象要素，选择与花粉浓度相关性较强的气象要素构成特征向量；其次，利用特征向量与花粉浓度数据建立SVM预测模型，并使用PSO算法找出最优参数；然后利用最优参数优化花粉浓度预测模型；最后，使用优化后的模型对花粉未来24 h浓度进行预测，并与未优化的SVM、多元线性回归法（MLR）、反向神经网络（BPNN）作对比。此外使用优化后的模型对某市南郊观象台和密云两个站点进行逐日花粉浓度预测。实验结果表明，相比其他预报方法，所提方法能有效提高花粉浓度未来24 h预测精度，并具有较高的泛化能力。     

PSO优化多核RVM的模拟电路故障预测

针对模拟电路健康管理的特点，提出了一种基于PSO优化多核RVM的模拟电路故障预测方法。利用参数分析得到电路的输出频域响应作为特征，计算其与电路无故障标准响应的欧氏距离来表征电路元件健康值，将多个核函数线性组合，并用PSO优化多核RVM参数后的模型实现对各个时间点元件的健康值变化轨迹进行预测。仿真结果表明，该方法在小样本情况下，预测效果优于单一核函数的RVM模型，适用于健康管理中实时预测，具有较好的实用性。     

结合优化支持向量机与K-means++的工控系统入侵检测方法

针对工业控制系统传统单一检测算法模型对不同攻击类型检测率和检测速度不佳的问题，提出一种优化支持向量机和K-means++算法结合的入侵检测模型。首先利用主成分分析法（PCA）对原始数据集进行预处理，消除其相关性；其次在粒子群优化（PSO）算法的基础上加入自适应变异过程避免在训练的过程中陷入局部最优解；然后利用自适应变异粒子群优化（AMPSO）算法优化支持向量机的核函数和惩罚参数；最后利用密度中心法改进K-means算法与优化后的支持向量机组合成入侵检测模型，从而实现工业控制系统的异常检测。实验结果表明，所提方法在检测速度和对各类攻击的检测率上得到明显提升。     

Benchmark value determination of energy efficiency indexes for coal-fired power units based on data mining methods

The operational optimisation of coal-fired power units is important for saving energy and reducing losses in the electric power industry. One of the key issues is how to determine the benchmark values of the energy efficiency indexes of the units. Therefore, a new framework for determining these benchmark values is proposed, based on data mining methods. First, the energy efficiency key performance indicators (KPIs) associated with the net coal consumption rate (NCCR) were selected based on the domain knowledge. Second, the decision-making samples with minimal NCCR were acquired with the fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering algorithm, and the corresponding clustering centres were employed as the benchmark values. Finally, based on the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, the target values of the NCCR were obtained with the KPIs as input, and the energy saving potential was evaluated by comparing the target values with the historical values of the NCCR. An actual on-duty 1000 MW unit was taken as study unit, and the results show that the energy saving potential is remarkable when the operators adjust the KPIs based on the calculated benchmark values.     

Design and optimization of ceramic membrane structure: From the perspective of flux matching between support and membrane

The support flux was first investigated as a separate influencing factor for its effect on performances of ceramic filtration membranes. Three pre-membranes were prepared by tape-casting and then transfer-coated to supports to form dual-layer ceramic membranes after sintering. Experiments demonstrated that membrane layers with almost the same properties were obtained despite the huge difference in support flux. When the support flux increases from 3.120 to 97.53 m³m^?2h^?1, the flux of these three membrane series have increased by 75%, 186% and 228%, respectively. Experimental rules can provide structural design and evaluation from the perspective of permeability. The limit membrane flux of a certain system was derived according to the resistance distribution law of internal membrane structure and the Darcy's theorem. On this basis, a method for designing support flux was proposed. Furthermore, we present a criterion to quickly and easily evaluate the match between the support and the top layer, which is the ratio of membrane resistance to total resistance. Finally, the filtration resistance of penetration caused by suction of membrane particles into the support was measured for the first time, taking the advantage of the transfer-coating method that inherently free of penetration. Our works are expected to deepen the understanding of the ceramic membrane structure and provided guidance for its rational design and optimization.     

Models for solar radiation prediction based on different measurement sites

The modeling of solar radiation for forecasting its availability is a key tool for managing photovoltaic (PV) plants and, hence, is of primary importance for energy production in a smart grid scenario. However, the variability of the weather phenomena is an unavoidable obstacle in the prediction of the energy produced by the solar radiation conversion. The use of the data collected in the past can be useful to capture the daily and seasonal variability, while measurement of the recent past can be exploited to provide a short term prediction. It is well known that a good measurement of the solar radiation requires not only a high class radiometer, but also a correct management of the instrument. In order to reduce the cost related to the management of the monitoring apparatus, a solution could be to evaluate the PV plant performance using data collected by public weather station installed near the plant. In this paper, two experiments are conducted. In the first, the plausibility of the short term prediction of the solar radiation, based on data collected in the near past on the same site is investigated. In the second experiment, the same prediction is operated using data collected by a public weather station located at ten kilometers from the solar plant. Several prediction techniques belonging from both computational intelligence and statistical fields have been challenged in this task. In particular, Support Vector Machine for Regression, Extreme Learning Machine and Autoregressive models have been used and compared with the persistence and the k-NN predictors. The prediction accuracy achieved in the two experimental conditions are then compared and the results are discussed.     

Towards optimization of the osmotic drying process of alumina-gelatin objects: Regression analysis and verification

In this study, further analysis of the osmotic drying process was conducted to identify the optimum combination of parameters for drying rectangular alumina-gelatin beams. This study was designed to determine the effect of three variables related to the osmotic drying process (osmotic pressure, molecular weight, and immersion time) on the interaction between the liquid desiccant and the submerged alumina-gelatin samples. The water loss from the alumina-gelatin samples was positively correlated with the molecular weight, osmotic pressure, and immersion time. Up to 40% by weight of the initial water content was removed during the osmotic drying process. The samples also experienced solids gain due to the counterflow of solute from the liquid desiccant. The least amount of solids gain resulted from drying for the shortest immersion time at low osmotic pressure and high molecular weight. Evidence of possible interactions between variables was noted for the sintered density metric. Statistical methods were used to form regression equations for the measured responses (water loss, solids gain, bulk density). A verification experiment was conducted to compare the experimental outcomes to the predicted outcomes. The responses were simultaneously optimized to identify the combination of variable settings required to meet specified goals. In order to maximize water loss, minimize solids gain, and maximize bulk density, the ceramic-gelatin object should be immersed for approximately 60?min in an aqueous solution of 100,000?g/mol poly(ethylene oxide) at an osmotic pressure of 2.50?MPa. These values are valid for the range of parameter settings tested and the sample fabrication and drying methods used.     

Effect of Supports and Promoters on the Performance of Ni-Based Catalysts in Ethanol Steam Reforming

Ethanol steam reforming (ESR) is one of the potential processes to convert ethanol into valuable products. Hydrogen produced from ESR is considered as green energy for the future and can be an excellent alternative to fossil fuels with the aim of mitigating the greenhouse gas effect. The ESR process has been well studied, using transition metals as catalysts coupled with both acidic and basic oxides as supports. Among various reported transition metals, Ni is an inexpensive material with activity comparable to that of noble metals, showing promising ethanol conversion and hydrogen yields. Additionally, different promoters and supports were utilized to enhance the hydrogen yield and the catalyst stability. This review summarizes and discusses the influences of the supports and promoters of Ni-based catalysts on the ESR process.     

一种宽带矢量调制器的设计及其应用

矢量调制器是一种可以同时控制微波信号幅度和相位的器件。本文介绍了一种基于新型微带定向耦合器的宽带矢量调制器。新的耦合器结构克服了传统微带耦合器耦合度低、方向性差的问题,也不需要Lange耦合器复杂的加工工艺,在平衡放大器、移相器和衰减器等场合具有广泛的应用。其次,研究了用串联电感对衰减器中PIN二极管的寄生参数进行补偿的一种简单方法,以改善衰减器衰减量变化时的相位性能。该方法原理简单,可在一定带宽内替代复杂的平衡结构,并给出相近的性能。最后给出了矢量调制器的测试结果和它在自适应天线阵等实际系统中的应用情况,并讨论了用于提高载波和边带抑制、满足高精度要求的校准方法。     

Mixed oxide supported hydrodesulfurization catalysts—a review

Support effects form important aspect of hydrodesulfurization (HDS) studies and mixed oxide supports received maximum attention in the last two decades. This review will focus attention on studies on mixed oxide supported Mo and W catalysts. For convenience of discussion, these are divided into Al₂O₃ containing mixed oxide supports, TiO₂ containing mixed oxide supports, ZrO₂ containing mixed oxide supports and other mixed oxide supports containing all the rest. TiO₂ containing mixed oxides received maximum attention, especially TiO₂–Al₂O₃ supported catalysts. A brief discussion about their prospects for application to ultradeep desulfurization is also included. An overview of the available literature with emphasis on research carried out in our laboratory form the contents of this publication.