基于相关性的人机系统可靠性模型

本文在剖析人机系统中操作者行为特征的基础上,考虑到操作者行为的自适应性、自学习能力及其行为形成主因子,着重结合操作者行为的相关性-感知作用于判断决策后影响到动作,建立了人机系统中操作者行为模式,并推导出计算操作者可靠度的公式,求出了相应参数.最后进行了实例量度,同时定量辨识了行为相关性对人可靠性的制约程度,以期从人机系统可靠性角度为人机系统的优化设计提供新的依据.     

Juvenile competence to stand trial evaluations: A survey of current practices and test usage among psychologists.

What is the current standard of practice for evaluations of juvenile competence to stand trial (JCST)? The present study surveyed psychologists regarding the practices used when conducting JCST evaluations. Respondents rated the importance of 17 elements that might be included in a JCST evaluation report. Of these elements, 7 were considered essential by 70% or more of respondents, with 9 additional elements rated as either essential or recommended. A majority of respondents felt that the use of psychological and forensic instruments was important. A list of tests used is provided, and the implications for the development of standards and policy are discussed to provide practitioners with additional knowledge that will help to further the state of the discipline. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

几种地下水易污性评价方法在徐州张集地区的应用

选择GOD法、DRASTIC法S、INTACS法及SI法4种易污性评价方法用于徐州张集地区的地下水易污性评价,应用GIS/ARCINFO输出张集地区的地下水易污性指标图。不同易污性评价方法对张集地区裂隙岩溶地下水的易污性评价得到了不同的结论,经分析,SI法更适用于张集地区的实际情况。具体应用时,要根据评价地区的实际条件,并和评价地区污染监测情况结合,选择合适的易污性评价方法评价地下水的易污性。     

矿山岩土工程系统环境质量评价指标体系

矿山现行的环境影响评价及其提交的环境影响报告书,是将矿山开发视为单个建设项目且只注重污染物排放和简单数量分析的单要素评价.本文将矿山开发视为统一系统,充分考虑系统内矿石开采、废石场、尾矿库等岩土工程及其矿岩氧化淋滤产生的毒害物质对矿区及其区域水土环境潜在而长期的影响,建立矿山岩士工程系统环境质量评价的指标体系,以改变矿山环境评价的传统旧式,规范和监督矿山开采行为,实现矿业开发与环境保护的协调发展.     

Life cycle of hydroprocessing catalysts and total catalyst management

Hydroprocessing catalysts based on Ni, Co, Mo and W are used in various refinery processing applications where several deactivation mechanisms become of importance (coke formation, active phase sintering, metals deposition, poisoning) in the catalyst's life cycle. The life cycle of commercial hydroprocessing catalysts is very complex and includes the catalyst production, sulfidation, use, oxidative regeneration followed by re-sulfidation and reuse or, if reuse is not possible, recycling or disposal. To understand the changes in catalyst properties taking place during a life cycle, the catalyst quality in the different stages can be best monitored by using advanced analytical techniques. The catalyst's life cycle is further complicated by numerous technical, environmental and organizational issues involved. In principle, different companies can be involved in each of the life cycle steps. Leading catalyst manufacturers, together with specialized firms, offer refineries a total catalyst management concept, starting with the purchase of the fresh catalyst and ending with its final recycling or disposal. Total catalyst management includes a broad range of services, ensuring optimal timing during the change-out process, reliable, smooth and safe operations, minimal downtime and maximum catalyst and unit performance.     

基于随机分析和概率预测的固定式海洋平台结构风险评估研究

对极端海况进行了环境荷载的联合概率分析。引入了整体不确定性和敏感性分析理论,利用非正态过程、具有不同相关性的多变量随机模拟技术,求解结构的失效概率。提出结构失效分析的新方法,并利用DNV提供的历史数据,对结构失效的后果做了适当分析。以埕北12-C井组平台为实例,对平台甲板高程(Air Gap)失效分析进行了实例计算。结果表明,使用多维联合极值分布理论及相应的求解方法,是离岸工程结构物风险评估的重要手段。     

大坝洪水漫顶风险评估

洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。     

Life cycle cost analysis of alternative vehicles and fuels in Thailand

High crude oil prices and pollution problems have drawn attention to alternative vehicle technologies and fuels for the transportation sector. The question is: What are the benefits/costs of these technologies for society? To answer this question in a quantitative way, a web-based model (http://vehiclesandfuels.memebot.com) has been developed to calculate the societal life cycle costs, the consumer life cycle costs and the tax for different vehicle technologies. By comparing these costs it is possible to draw conclusions about the social benefit and the related tax structure. The model should help to guide decisions toward optimality, which refers to maximum social benefit. The model was applied to the case of Thailand. The life cycle cost of 13 different alternative vehicle technologies in Thailand have been calculated and the tax structure analyzed.     

Effect of sampling density on the measurement of stream condition indicators in two lowland Australian streams

There is widespread application of indicators to the assessment of environmental condition of streams. These indicators are intended for use by managers in making various comparative and absolute assessments and often have a role in resource allocation and performance assessment. Therefore, the problem of formally defining confidence in the results is important but difficult because the sampling strategies used are commonly based on a compromise between the requirements of statistical rigour and the pragmatic issues of access and resources. It is rare to see this compromise explicitly considered and consequently there is seldom quantification of the uncertainty that could affect the confidence a manager has in an indicator. In this paper, we present a method for quantitatively assessing the tradeoffs between sampling density and uncertainty in meeting various monitoring objectives. Assessments using judgement‐based representative reaches are shown to be unreliable; instead a sampling approach is recommended based on the random selection of measuring sites. A detailed dataset was collected along two streams in Victoria, Australia, and the effect of sampling density was assessed by subsampling from this dataset with precision related to the number of sites assessed per reach length and the intensity of the sampling at each site. The sampling scheme to achieve a given precision is shown to depend on the monitoring objective. In particular, three objectives were considered: (1) making a baseline assessment of current condition; (2) change detection; and (3) detection of a critical threshold in condition. Change detection is shown to be more demanding than assessing baseline condition with additional sampling effort required to achieve the same precision. Sampling to detect a critical threshold depends on nominating acceptable values of Type I and II error and the size of the effect to be detected. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水利水电的社会政策

首先研究中国水利水电未来研究的重点和方向:①社会变迁的环境效应;②水利水电社会影响评价;③多角度的生态———社会互动研究;④水利水电“社会经济”;⑤水利水电的“社会技术”进步;⑥水利水电规划的战略环境影响评价。接着,探讨社会政策原理、方法和技术,研究水利水电社会政策的重点和难点,策略。