Predicting Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) populations and associated grain damage in smallholder farmers’ maize stores: A machine learning approach

Prostephanus truncatus is a notorious pest of stored-maize grain and its spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa has led to increased levels of grain storage losses. The current study developed models to predict the level of P. truncatus infestation and associated damage of maize grain in smallholder farmer stores. Data were gathered from grain storage trials conducted in Hwedza and Mbire districts of Zimbabwe and correlated with weather data for each site. Insect counts of P. truncatus and other common stored grain insect pests had a strong correlation with time of year with highest recorded numbers from January to May. Correlation analysis showed insect-generated grain dust from boring and feeding activity to be the best indicator of P. truncatus presence in stores (r = 0.70), while a moderate correlation (r = 0.48) was found between P. truncatus numbers and storage insect parasitic wasps, and grain damage levels significantly correlated with the presence of Tribolium castaneum (r = 0.60). Models were developed for predicting P. truncatus infestation and grain damage using parameter selection algorithms and decision-tree machine learning algorithms with 10-fold cross-validation. The P. truncatus population size prediction model performance was weak (r = 0.43) due to the complicated sampling and detection of the pest and eight-week long period between sampling events. The grain damage prediction model had a stronger correlation coefficient (r = 0.93) and is a good estimator for in situ stored grain insect damage. The models were developed for use under southern African climatic conditions and can be improved with more input data to create more precise models for building decision-support tools for smallholder maize-based production systems.     

大规模多状态计算系统的容错性能分析

针对异构计算节点组成的大规模多状态计算系统的容错性能分析问题，提出了一种计算系统容错性能的评估方法。该方法采用自定义的两级容错性能形式化描述框架进行系统描述，通过构造多值决策图（Multi-value Decision Diagram，MDD）模型对系统进行容错性能建模，并基于构造的模型高效地计算出部件故障的条件下计算系统在特定性能水平上运行的概率，减少了计算的冗余性。实验结果表明，该方法在模型的大小和构建时间上均优于传统方法。该方法的提出将对系统操作员或程序设计者具有重要意义，使其确保系统适合预期应用。     

Output feedback controller for polytopic systems exploiting the direct searching of the design space

This paper deals with the problem of designing a robust static output feedback controller for polytopic systems. The current research that tackled this problem is mainly based on LMI method, which is conservative by nature. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed, which considers the design space of the controller parameters and iteratively partitions the space to small simplexes. Then, by assessing the stability in each simplex, the solution space for design parameters is directly determined. It has been theoretically proved that, if there exists a feasible solution in the design space, the algorithm can find it. To validate the result of the proposed approach, comparative simulation examples are given to illustrate the performance of the design methodology as compared to those of previous approaches.     

Unreliable numbers: error and harm induced by bad design can be reduced by better design

Number entry is a ubiquitous activity and is often performed in safety- and mission-critical procedures, such as healthcare, science, finance, aviation and in many other areas. We show that Monte Carlo methods can quickly and easily compare the reliability of different number entry systems. A surprising finding is that many common, widely used systems are defective, and induce unnecessary human error. We show that Monte Carlo methods enable designers to explore the implications of normal and unexpected operator behaviour, and to design systems to be more resilient to use error. We demonstrate novel designs with improved resilience, implying that the common problems identified and the errors they induce are avoidable.     

Classification of the cardiotocogram data for anticipation of fetal risks using machine learning techniques

The aim of the research is evaluating the classification performances of eight different machine-learning methods on the antepartum cardiotocography (CTG) data. The classification is necessary to predict newborn health, especially for the critical cases. Cardiotocography is used for assisting the obstetricians’ to obtain detailed information during the pregnancy as a technique of measuring fetal well-being, essentially in pregnant women having potential complications. The obstetricians describe CTG shortly as a continuous electronic record of the baby's heart rate took from the mother's abdomen. The acquired information is necessary to visualize unhealthiness of the embryo and gives an opportunity for early intervention prior to happening a permanent impairment to the embryo. The aim of the machine learning methods is by using attributes of data obtained from the uterine contraction (UC) and fetal heart rate (FHR) signals to classify as pathological or normal. The dataset contains 1831 instances with 21 attributes, examined by applying the methods. In the paper, the highest accuracy displayed as 99.2%.     

A GIS plug-in for Bayesian belief networks: Towards a transparent software framework to assess and visualise uncertainties in ecosystem service mapping

The complexity and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem processes driving ecosystem service delivery require spatially explicit models that take into account the different parameters affecting those processes. Current attempts to model ecosystem service delivery on a broad, regional scale often depend on indicator-based approaches that are generally not able to fully capture the complexity of ecosystem processes. Moreover, they do not allow quantification of uncertainty on their predictions. In this paper, we discuss a QGIS plug-in which promotes the use of Bayesian belief networks for regional modelling and mapping of ecosystem service delivery and associated uncertainties. Different types of specific Bayesian belief network output maps, delivered by the plug-in, are discussed and their decision support capacities are evaluated. This plug-in, used in combination with firmly developed Bayesian belief networks, has the potential to add value to current spatial ecosystem service accounting methods. The plug-in can also be used in other research domains dealing with spatial data and uncertainty.     

A hybrid knowledge and ensemble classification approach for prediction of venous thromboembolism

Clinical narratives such as progress summaries, lab reports, surgical reports, and other narrative texts contain key biomarkers about a patient's health. Evidence-based preventive medicine needs accurate semantic and sentiment analysis to extract and classify medical features as the input to appropriate machine learning classifiers. However, the traditional approach of using single classifiers is limited by the need for dimensionality reduction techniques, statistical feature correlation, a faster learning rate, and the lack of consideration of the semantic relations among features. Hence, extracting semantic and sentiment-based features from clinical text and combining multiple classifiers to create an ensemble intelligent system overcomes many limitations and provides a more robust prediction outcome. The selection of an appropriate approach and its interparameter dependency becomes key for the success of the ensemble method. This paper proposes a hybrid knowledge and ensemble learning framework for prediction of venous thromboembolism (VTE) diagnosis consisting of the following components: a VTE ontology, semantic extraction and sentiment assessment of risk factor framework, and an ensemble classifier. Therefore, a component-based analysis approach was adopted for evaluation using a data set of 250 clinical narratives where knowledge and ensemble achieved the following results with and without semantic extraction and sentiment assessment of risk factor, respectively: a precision of 81.8% and 62.9%, a recall of 81.8% and 57.6%, an F measure of 81.8% and 53.8%, and a receiving operating characteristic of 80.1% and 58.5% in identifying cases of VTE.     

Robust predictive extended state observer for a class of nonlinear systems with time-varying input delay

ABSTRACT

This paper deals with asymptotic stabilisation of a class of nonlinear input-delayed systems via dynamic output feedback in the presence of disturbances. The proposed strategy has the structure of an observer-based control law, in which the observer estimates and predicts both the plant state and the external disturbance. A nominal delay value is assumed to be known and stability conditions in terms of linear matrix inequalities are derived for fast-varying delay uncertainties. Asymptotic stability is achieved if the disturbance or the time delay is constant. The controller design problem is also addressed and a numerical example with an unstable system is provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed strategy.     

共网数字集群系统应用问题的研究

现今国内的数字集群网络发展存在局限性、差异性，还远没有达到“网”状分布的程度，因此，共网数字集群发展空间巨大、前景广阔。通过列举共网数字集群系统在龙嘉国际机场和长春雷锋车队的成功应用案例，探讨了我国共网数字集群系统应用的可行性和必要性。     

Decomposition of first-order hybrid Petri nets for hierarchical control of manufacturing systems

Although hybrid Petri net (HPN) is a popular formalism in modelling hybrid production systems, the HPN model of large scale systems gets substantially complicated for analysis and control due to large dimensionality of such systems. To overcome this problem, a typical approach is to decompose the net into subnets and then control the plant through hierarchical or decentralized structures. Although this concept has been widely discussed in the literature for discrete PNs, there is a lack of research for HPNs. In this paper, a new method of decomposition of first-order hybrid Petri nets (FOHPNs) is proposed first and then the hierarchical control of the subnets through a coordinator is introduced. The advantage of using the proposed approach is validated by an existing example. A sugar milling case study is analysed by using a decomposed FOHPN model and the optimization results are compared against the results of the approaches presented in other papers. Simulation results show not only an improvement in production rate, but also show the ability to control the plant online. In addition, by using the hierarchical control structure for an FOHPN model, it is possible to reduce the cost of communication links, improve the reliability of the system, maintain the plant locally, and partially redesign the system.