Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise

Risk assessments are often criticised for defending activities that could harm the environment and human health. The risk assessments produce numbers which are used to prove that the risk associated with the activity is acceptable. In this way, risk assessments seem to be a tool generally serving business. Government agencies have based their regulations on the use of risk assessment and the prevailing practise is supported by the regulations. In this paper, we look more closely into this critique. Are risk assessments being misused or are risk assessments simply not a suitable tool for guiding decision-making in the face of risks and uncertainties? Is the use of risk assessments not servicing public interests? We argue that risk assessments may provide useful decision support but the quality of the risk assessments and the associated risk assessment processes need to be improved. In this paper, three main improvement areas (success factors) are identified and discussed: (1) the scientific basis of the risk assessments needs to be strengthened, (2) the risk assessments need to provide a much broader risk picture than what is typically the case today. Separate uncertainty analyses should be carried out, extending the traditional probabilistic-based analyses and (3) the cautionary and precautionary principles need to be seen as rational risk management approaches, and their application would, to a large extent, be based on risk and uncertainty assessments.     

Leak calibration by comparison with reference standard leaks

A study of the calibration of leaks by comparison with reference standard leaks calibrated at a National Metrology Laboratory is presented. The simplicity and efficiency of the method make it suitable for calibrations of leaks carried out at the industrial level. A commercial leak tester equipped with a mass spectrometer tuned to helium is used for the comparison. The main origins of uncertainties and their contributions to the expanded uncertainty are presented. In particular, discussion is devoted to the long-term stability, shift, or depletion of the reference standard leaks and the resulting impact on the expanded uncertainty. Results of application of the procedure for calibration of a leak of similar metrological characteristics to the reference standard leaks are also presented.     

Adaptive nonsingular fast terminal sliding-mode control for the tracking problem of uncertain dynamical systems

In this paper, robust and adaptive nonsingular fast terminal sliding-mode (NFTSM) control schemes for the trajectory tracking problem are proposed with known or unknown upper bound of the system uncertainty and external disturbances. The developed controllers take the advantage of the NFTSM theory to ensure fast convergence rate, singularity avoidance, and robustness against uncertainties and external disturbances. First, a robust NFTSM controller is proposed which guarantees that sliding surface and equilibrium point can be reached in a short finite-time from any initial state. Then, in order to cope with the unknown upper bound of the system uncertainty which may be occurring in practical applications, a new adaptive NFTSM algorithm is developed. One feature of the proposed control law is their adaptation techniques where the prior knowledge of parameters uncertainty and disturbances is not needed. However, the adaptive tuning law can estimate the upper bound of these uncertainties using only position and velocity measurements. Moreover, the proposed controller eliminates the chattering effect without losing the robustness property and the precision. Stability analysis is performed using the Lyapunov stability theory, and simulation studies are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the developed control schemes.     

不确定性双臂空间机器人自适应模糊优化控制

考虑空间环境存在惯性参数未知及外部扰动等不确定性因素,针对自由漂浮双臂空间机器人(DFFSR)关节角运动控制问题,提出了一种自适应模糊优化控制方法。首先,基于系统动量守恒关系及Lagrange方法,建立DFFSR系统关节空间的动力学方程;而后,考虑系统惯性参数未知导致惯性矩阵无法求解问题,利用模糊控制理论的万能逼近特性,通过在线参数辨识建立系统自适应模糊模型;由此,同时考虑系统存在外界扰动以及输出力矩的优化问题,基于SDRE优化控制理论,设计一种自适应模糊优化控制方法,实现了DFFSR系统关节角的精确运动控制。一组对比仿真验证了所提控制方法的可靠性。     

A Subjective Design Framework for Conceptual Design of Polymeric Processes with Multiple Parameters

Polymer processes are in general difficult to model, especially because of coupling between process conditions, polymeric behaviors and geometries. Arising from high thermal gradients, non-Newtonian viscous behaviors and non-linear pressure effects, polymer processing is not well described mathematically. A conceptual design methodology is proposed formally as a useful tool for treating polymeric processes with multiple performance parameters on a structured design platform. Without resorting to engineering models, this approach deals with the initial selection of process conditions within a three-stage framework: (1) qualitative design; (2) process modeling; and (3) quantitative design. Based on subjective reasoning, this procedure makes it possible to account for one’s prior experience, and incorporate it into the process development. The notion of conceptual robutstness is introduced to ensure deesign quality in the early-stage process development. A case study of compression molding is illustrated in a step-by-step manner.     

Interpretations of alternative uncertainty representations in a reliability and risk analysis context

Probability is the predominant tool used to measure uncertainties in reliability and risk analyses. However, other representations also exist, including imprecise (interval) probability, fuzzy probability and representations based on the theories of evidence (belief functions) and possibility. Many researchers in the field are strong proponents of these alternative methods, but some are also sceptical. In this paper, we address one basic requirement set for quantitative measures of uncertainty: the interpretation needed to explain what an uncertainty number expresses. We question to what extent the various measures meet this requirement. Comparisons are made with probabilistic analysis, where uncertainty is represented by subjective probabilities, using either a betting interpretation or a reference to an uncertainty standard interpretation. By distinguishing between chances (expressing variation) and subjective probabilities, new insights are gained into the link between the alternative uncertainty representations and probability.     

Design and Simulation of TF and TA Controller for Missile

A nonlinear terrain following(TF) and terrain avoidance(TA) controller is proposed for missile control systems. Based on classical TF algorithm (adaptive angle method), a new method for TF controller is proposed by using angle of attack. A method of obtaining terrain outline data from digital elevation map (DEM) for TF control is discussed in order to save store space. A TA algorithm is proposed by using bank-to-turn technique. The block control model, which is suitable for backstepping design, is given for nonlinear model of missile. Making full use of the characteristics of the system and combining block control principle and backstepping technique, a robust controller design method is proposed. Uncertainties in every sub-block are allowed, and can be canceled by using the idea of nonlinear damping. It is proved that the state tracking errors are converged to a neighborhood of the origin exponentially. Finally, nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom simulation results for the missile model are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control law.     

Robust multi-objective and multi-level optimization of complex mechanical structures

This paper presents a new approach to robust multi-objective and multi-level optimization of the design of complex mechanical structures. The optimization is at two levels: system and elements. At system-level, the robust multi-objective problem has four cost functions: on the one hand the minimization of the global mass and displacement at a fixed point of the mechanical structure, and on the other hand the maximization of both the robustness and the displacement of the mass. At element-level the robust multi-objective problem has two cost functions: minimization of the element mass and maximization of its robustness. A robust condensation technique, based on an enriched Karhunen-Loève condensation, is used for complex structures which require a large finite element model. In contrast to existing formulations, this new approach takes into account uncertainties in the design parameters at system-level and element-level. It also allows for the task sharing which is commonly used in structural engineering.     

Fuzzy-neuro position/force control for robotic manipulators with uncertainties

The performance of a controller for robot force tracking is affected by the uncertainties in both the robot dynamic model and the environmental stiffness. This paper aims to improve the controller’s robustness by applying the neural network to compensate for the uncertainties of the robot model at the input trajectory level rather than at the joint torque level. A self-adaptive fuzzy controller is introduced for robotic manipulator position/force control. Simulation results based on a two-degrees of freedom robot show that highly robust position/force tracking can be achieved, despite the existence of large uncertainties in the robot model.     

A multiscale “Trefftz” computational method for medium-frequency vibrations of assemblies of heterogeneous plates with uncertainties

A new approach, called the “Variational Theory of Complex Rays”, is being developed for the calculation of the vibrations of slightly damped elastic plates in the medium-frequency range. In this approach, the resolution of a small system of equations which does not result from a refined spatial discretization of the structure leads to the evaluation of effective quantities (deformation energy, vibration amplitude, …). This theory has already been validated for assemblies of homogeneous substructures and extended to the case of heterogeneous substructures. In this paper, we propose some improvements to deal with sensitivity analysis. The objective is to evaluate the influence of discontinuities with uncertain positions, sizes or directions on the structural response. A specific partial inversion of the constrained system of equations enables multiple resolutions for combinations of the parameters defining the possible shapes of the discontinuity to be carried out at low cost.