基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型

死亡风险预测指根据病人临床体征监测数据来预测未来一段时间的死亡风险。对于ICU病患，通过死亡风险预测可以有针对性地对病人做出临床诊断，以及合理安排有限的医疗资源。基于临床使用的MEWS和Glasgow昏迷评分量表，针对ICU病人临床监测的17项生理参数，提出一种基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型。引入多通道概念应用于BiLSTM模型，用于突出每个生理参数对死亡风险预测的作用。采用Attention机制用于提高模型预测精度。实验数据来自MIMIC [Ⅲ]数据库，从中提取3?080位脑血管疾病患者的16?260条记录用于此次研究，除了六组超参数实验之外，将所提模型与LSTM、Multichannel-BiLSTM、逻辑回归（logistic regression）和支持向量机（support vector machine, SVM）四种模型进行了对比分析，准确率Accuracy、灵敏度Sensitive、特异性Specificity、AUC-ROC和AUC-PRC作为评价指标，实验结果表明，所提模型性能优于其他模型，AUC值达到94.3%。     

Comparative analysis of inbreeding parameters and runs of homozygosity islands in 2 Italian autochthonous cattle breeds mainly raised in the Parmigiano-Reggiano cheese production region

Reggiana and Modenese are autochthonous cattle breeds, reared in the North of Italy, that can be mainly distinguished for their standard coat color (Reggiana is red, whereas Modenese is white with some pale gray shades). Almost all milk produced by these breeds is transformed into 2 mono-breed branded Parmigiano-Reggiano cheeses, from which farmers receive the economic incomes needed for the sustainable conservation of these animal genetic resources. After the setting up of their herd books in 1960s, these breeds experienced a strong reduction in the population size that was subsequently reverted starting in the 1990s (Reggiana) or more recently (Modenese) reaching at present a total of about 2,800 and 500 registered cows, respectively. Due to the small population size of these breeds, inbreeding is a very important cause of concern for their conservation programs. Inbreeding is traditionally estimated using pedigree data, which are summarized in an inbreeding coefficient calculated at the individual level (F_PED). However, incompleteness of pedigree information and registration errors can affect the effectiveness of conservation strategies. High-throughput SNP genotyping platforms allow investigation of inbreeding using genome information that can overcome the limits of pedigree data. Several approaches have been proposed to estimate genomic inbreeding, with the use of runs of homozygosity (ROH) considered to be the more appropriate. In this study, several pedigree and genomic inbreeding parameters, calculated using the whole herd book populations or considering genotyping information (GeneSeek GGP Bovine 150K) from 1,684 Reggiana cattle and 323 Modenese cattle, were compared. Average inbreeding values per year were used to calculate effective population size. Reggiana breed had generally lower genomic inbreeding values than Modenese breed. The low correlation between pedigree-based and genomic-based parameters (ranging from 0.187 to 0.195 and 0.319 to 0.323 in the Reggiana and Modenese breeds, respectively) reflected the common problems of local populations in which pedigree records are not complete. The high proportion of short ROH over the total number of ROH indicates no major recent inbreeding events in both breeds. ROH islands spread over the genome of the 2 breeds (15 in Reggiana and 14 in Modenese) identified several signatures of selection. Some of these included genes affecting milk production traits, stature, body conformation traits (with a main ROH island in both breeds on BTA6 containing the ABCG2, NCAPG, and LCORL genes) and coat color (on BTA13 in Modenese containing the ASIP gene). In conclusion, this work provides an extensive comparative analysis of pedigree and genomic inbreeding parameters and relevant genomic information that will be useful in the conservation strategies of these 2 iconic local cattle breeds.     

Feature selection methods for root-cause analysis among top-level product attributes

Manufacturing companies not only strive to deliver flawless products but also monitor product failures in the field to identify potential quality issues. When product failures occur, quality engineers must identify the root cause to improve any affected product and process. This root-cause analysis can be supported by feature selection methods that identify relevant product attributes, such as manufacturing dates with an increased number of product failures. In this paper, we present different methods for feature selection and evaluate their ability to identify relevant product attributes in a root-cause analysis. First, we compile a list of feature selection methods. Then, we summarize the properties of product attributes in warranty case data and discuss these properties regarding the challenges they pose for machine learning algorithms. Next, we simulate datasets of warranty cases, which emulate these product properties. Finally, we compare the feature selection methods based on these simulated datasets. In the end, the univariate filter information gain is determined to be a suitable method for a wide range of applications. The comparison based on simulated data provides a more general result than other publications, which only focus on a single use case. Due to the generic nature of the simulated datasets, the results can be applied to various root-cause analysis processes in different quality management applications and provide a guideline for readers who wish to explore machine learning methods for their analysis of quality data.     

Tactile colour pictogram to improve artwork appreciation of people with visual impairments

A recent development in tactile technology enables an improvement in the appreciation of the visual arts for people with visual impairment (PVI). The tactile sense, in conjunction with, or a possibly as an alternative to, the auditory sense, would allow PVIs to approach artwork in a more self‐driven and engaging way that would be difficult to achieve with just an auditory stimulus. Tactile colour pictograms (TCPs), which are raised geometric patterns, are ideographic characters that are designed to enable PVIs to identify colours and interpret information by touch. In this article, three TCPs are introduced to code colours in the Munsell colour system. Each colour pattern consists of a basic cell size of 10 mm × 10 mm to represent the patterns consistently in terms of regular shape. Each TCP consists of basic geometric patterns that are combined to create primary, secondary, and tertiary colour pictograms of shapes indicating colour hue, intensity and lightness. Each TCP represents 29 colours including six hues; they were then further expanded to represent 53 colours. Two of them did not increase the cell size, the other increased the cell size 1.5 times for some colours, such as yellow‐orange, yellow, blue, and blue‐purple. Our proposed TCPs use a slightly larger cell size compared to most tactile patterns currently used to indicate colour, but code for more colours. With user experience and identification tests, conducted with 23 visually impaired adults, the effectiveness of the TCPs suggests that they were helpful for the participants.     

谈陶瓷装饰中的婴戏纹饰与西方艺术品中的儿童形象

婴戏纹饰即描绘儿童游戏时的画作,是中国人物画的一种,更是陶瓷装饰中常见的传统题材。其主要以儿童为主要绘画对象,表现儿童纯真,或借以其他物象,组成吉祥图案,在我国陶瓷绘画上广泛运用,有着深刻的社会形态特征和思想文化的背景。其始于唐代,兴盛于宋金,明清两朝日臻成熟,并延续至今。在西方艺术史当中,儿童形象大都通过神话人物或宗教相关的艺术品走进人们视野,用以表现某些宗教思想或精神诉求。本文主要探讨陶瓷婴戏纹饰在我国历史发展历程中的演变概况,以及笔者对我国陶瓷婴戏纹饰和西方艺术品中儿童形象横向对比下的一些思考。     

SDN中基于KMOBPSO的高可靠性控制器部署算法

针对SDN中控制器系统的单节点故障问题,兼顾系统成本和系统时延,应用N+1冗余备份模型来提高SDN控制器部署的可靠性,并将其抽象为多目标优化问题.同时,提出了一种融合K-means聚类算法和遗传算子的多目标二进制粒子群算法——KMOBPSO算法,以求解SDN控制器高可靠性部署问题的解.仿真结果表明,所提算法具有求解精度高、分布均匀、沿Pareto前沿面覆盖广的特点,能够显著提高SDN中控制器部署的可靠性.     

多先验融合的图像显著性目标检测算法

为了更加准确地检测出图像中的显著性目标，提出了多先验融合的显著性目标检测算法。针对传统中心先验对偏离图像中心的显著性目标会出现检测失效的情况，提出在多颜色空间下求显著性目标的最小凸包交集来确定目标的大致位置，以凸包区域中心计算中心先验。同时通过融合策略将凸包区域中心先验、颜色对比先验和背景先验融合并集成到特征矩阵中。最后通过低秩矩阵恢复模型生成结果显著图。在公开数据集MSRA1000和ESSCD上的仿真实验结果表明，MPLRR能够得到清晰高亮的显著性目标视觉效果图，同时F，AUC，MAE等评价指标也比现有的许多方法有明显提升。     

（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物的合成及表征

为了开发β受体阻断剂新药（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物，采用3-吗啉-4-氯-1，2，5-噻二唑为起始原料，经水解反应得到中间体1（3-吗啉-4-羟基-1，2，5-噻二唑）。中间体1与R-环氧氯丙烷发生醚化反应，经后处理及重结晶得到中间体2 {（R）-4-［4-（环氧乙烷-2-基甲氧基）-1，2，5-噻二唑-3-基］吗啉}。中间体2经胺化反应、马来酸成盐及重结晶得到（S）-马来酸噻吗洛尔。（S）-马来酸噻吗洛尔经游离、纯水转晶得到符合药典标准的（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物，总收率14.05%且e.e.值为99.66%。最终成品经IR、1H-NMR、13C-NMR、MS、TGA、DSC表征，并优化各步反应条件。结果表明:以三乙胺为醚化反应缚酸剂75 ℃反应最佳；以乙醇为胺化反应溶剂46 ℃反应16 h最佳；S-噻吗洛尔的转晶拆分以水作溶剂，比传统不对称合成工艺安全稳定，操作简单，适合工业化生产。     

Long-run urban dynamics: understanding local housing market change in London

Abstract

Recently, a literature has emerged using empirical techniques to study the evolution of international cities over many centuries; however, few studies examine long-run change within cities. Conventional models and concepts are not always appropriate and data issues make long-run neighbourhood analysis particularly problematic. This paper addresses some of these points. First, it discusses why the analysis of long-run urban change is important for modern urban policy and considers the most important concepts. Second, it constructs a novel data set at the micro level, which allows consistent comparisons of London neighbourhoods in 1881 and 2001. Third, the paper models some of the key factors that affected long-run change, including the role of housing. There is evidence that the relative social positions of local urban areas persist over time but, nevertheless, at fine spatial scales, local areas still exhibit change, arising from aggregate population dynamics, from advances in technology, and also from the effects of shocks, such as wars. In general, where small areas are considered, long-run changes are likely to be greater, because individuals are more mobile over short than long distances. Finally, the paper considers the implications for policy.