Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A novel strategy based on salp swarm algorithm for extracting the maximum power of proton exchange membrane fuel cell

Cell temperature and water content of the membrane have a significant effect on the performance of fuel cells. The current-power curve of the fuel cell has a maximum power point (MPP) that is needed to be tracked. This study presents a novel strategy based on a salp swarm algorithm (SSA) for extracting the maximum power of proton-exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC). At first, a new formula is derived to estimate the optimal voltage of PEMFC corresponding to MPP. Then the error between the estimated voltage at MPP and the actual terminal voltage of the fuel cell is fed to a proportional-integral-derivative controller (PID). The output of the PID controller tunes the duty cycle of a boost converter to maximize the harvested power from the PEMFC. SSA determines the optimal gains of PID. Sensitivity analysis is performed with the operating fuel cell at different cell temperature and water content of the membrane. The obtained results through the proposed strategy are compared with other programmed approaches of incremental resistance method, Fuzzy-Logic, grey antlion optimizer, wolf optimizer, and mine-blast algorithm. The obtained results demonstrated high reliability and efficiency of the proposed strategy in extracting the maximum power of the PEMFC.     

基于种群划分与变异策略的粒子群优化算法

粒子群算法因其形式比较简洁，参数设置灵活，操作简便易行，并且能够快速收敛，从而引起广泛关注。但是传统的粒子群算法也有缺陷：收敛速度慢以及容易陷入局部最优等。针对这些问题，本文借鉴小生境的方法，在进化初始阶段，对种群进行划分，将初始种群分为子种群，对不同的子种群进行不同的变异策略；在进化过程中，针对不同的子种群，设置不同的惯性权重因子ω，用来增强全局搜索能力与局部搜索能力。实验结果表明，本文提出的算法较传统的粒子群算法具有较快的收敛性以及找寻的全局最优解更接近真实解集，收敛精度比较高。     

Couple-based particle swarm optimization for short-term hydrothermal scheduling

A novel couple-based particle swarm optimization (CPSO) is presented in this paper, and applied to solve the short-term hydrothermal scheduling (STHS) problem. In CPSO, three improvements are proposed compared to the canonical particle swarm optimization, aimed at overcoming the premature convergence problem. Dynamic particle couples, a unique sub-group structure in maintaining population diversity, is adopted as the population topology, in which every two particles compose a particle couple randomly in each iteration. Based on this topology, an intersectional learning strategy using the partner learning information of last iteration is employed in every particle couple, which can automatically reveal useful history information and reduce the overly rapid evolution speed. Meanwhile, the coefficients of each particle in a particle couple are set as distinct so that the particle movement patterns can be described and controlled more precisely. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed CPSO, the algorithm is firstly tested with four multimodal benchmark functions, and then applied to solve an engineering multimodal problem known as STHS, in which two typical test systems with four different cases are tested, and the results are compared with those of other evolutionary methods published in the literature.     

基于PSO-ELM模型的潜油柱塞泵冲次优化方法

为改进油井后期泵效低下、能耗高等缺陷，提出了一种基于PSO-ELM模型的潜油柱塞泵冲次优化方法.采用粒子群（PSO）算法与极限学习机（ELM）相结合的方式来实现动液面软测量建模；根据动液面及潜油柱塞泵工作电流变化，以油井运行经济性最优为目的建立目标函数得到潜油柱塞泵冲次，解决了在油井生产时不能准确调节抽油机冲次问题；最后以目标函数关系建立模糊控制器模型，根据输入参数调整潜油柱塞泵冲次.实验结果表明，建立的软测量模型预测动液面精度高，模糊控制器能够更加合理地调整抽油机冲次，最终达到智能调整冲次大小、提高油井采油率及节能的目的.     

Scheduling distributed flowshops with flexible assembly and set-up time to minimise makespan

The scheduling problems under distributed production or flexible assembly settings have achieved increasing attention in recent years. This paper considers scheduling the integration of these two environments and proposes an original distributed flowshop scheduling problem with flexible assembly and set-up time. Distributed production stage is deployed several homogeneous flowshop factories that process the jobs to be assembled into final products in the flexible assembly stage. The objective is to find a schedule, including a production subschedule for jobs and an assembly subschedule for products, to minimise the makespan. Such a scheduling problem involves four successive decisions: assigning jobs to production factories, sequencing jobs at every factory, designating an assembly machine for each product and sequencing products on each assembly machine. The computational model is first established, and then a constructive heuristic (TPHS) and two hybrid metaheuristics (HVNS and HPSO) are proposed. Numerical experiments have been carried out and results validate the algorithmic feasibility and effectiveness. TPHS can obtain reasonable solutions in a shorter time, while metaheuristics can report better solutions using more yet acceptable time. HPSO is statistically comparable yet less robust compared with HVNS for small-scale instances. For the large-scale case, HPSO outperforms HVNS on both effectiveness and robustness.     

基于彩色图像处理的浮选尾煤灰分软测量研究

浮选尾煤灰分是浮选产品的一个重要指标。针对选煤厂浮选尾煤灰分多采用离线检测而无法实现在线准确测量，以及当前浮选软测量多采用单一的灰度图像从而导致软测量模型精度及适应性较差的问题，提出了一种基于彩色图像处理的浮选尾煤软测量方法，建立了基于最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)的浮选尾煤灰分软测量模型。模型以不同颜色空间的彩色特征、灰度均值以及浓度特征为输入变量，以尾煤灰分作为输出变量，采用粒子群优化算法对LSSVM模型参数进行优化。结果表明：所建立的尾煤灰分软测量模型可以较好地实现浮选尾矿灰分的在线预测，引入浮选尾矿图像的彩色特征可以提高尾煤图像分析的精度，预测精度达96.89%。研究成果在柳湾选煤厂现场应用，并取得了较好的尾矿灰分测量效果。     

自适应SA-PSO优化的威布尔混合分布参数估计方法及应用

针对采用传统参数估计方法得到的模型拟合误差较大的问题，建立多重威布尔混合分布参数估计的非线性最小二乘模型，并提出基于模拟退火（SA）思想的自适应粒子群（PSO）算法进行求解。在PSO算法优化过程中，采用自适应方法调整惯性权重和加速因子，加快其收敛速度；引入模拟退火机制，根据Metropolis准则确定最优粒子的取舍，改善其全局搜索能力。将该方法应用到某型柴油机喷油器失效分布的参数估计中，并与图解法、基于Levenberg-Marquardt的非线性最小二乘法、标准PSO算法、自适应PSO算法求解的结果进行比较，分析所提方法的优化性能及精度。结果表明，该方法能够有效提高多重威布尔混合分布模型参数估计的精度和效率。